Traders on decentralized betting platform Polymarket have scaled back expectations for U.S. military action against Iran amid reports that President Donald Trump’s team is looking to mend fences.

As of writing, probability that U.S. will strike Iran by June 30 stood at 46%, down sharply from the overnight high of 66.9%, according to trading in the Polymarket-listed contract “U.S. military action against Iran before July.”

The decline follows a report from Axios that the U.S. is mulling a meeting this week between U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi. The meeting will be aimed at exploring a diplomatic initiative involving a nuclear deal and an end of the Israel-Iran conflict.

Yet one Polymarket user said that “Trump should join the fray: his troops need the experience in postpostmodern warfare,” calling for a military action against Iran.

On Friday, Israel launched coordinated airstrikes and drone attacks on multiple sites across on Iranian military and nuclear facilities, leading to retaliatory action by Tehran.

Bitcoin initially fell in a knee-jerk reaction to $102,750 alongside risk aversion in traditional markets, characterized by an uptick in the anti-risk Japanese yen and weakness in the U.S. stocks.

BTC, however, has stabilized since then, with prices recovering to trade at $106,700 at press time. However, futures tied to the S&P 500 traded 0.7% lower.

Note that the Trump administration is yet to official comment on the Axios report. In a late Monday post on Truth Social, Trump reiterated that Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon, calling for immediate evacuation of Tehran.

Global markets are navigating choppy waters as delegations from both the U.S. and China are meeting in London to discuss solutions in the ongoing trade war between the two economies. As a result, SUI, the native token of the Sui blockchain, demonstrated remarkable strength with a 4.7% price increase on explosive trading volume, establishing key support at $3.24 after a V-shaped recovery pattern that suggests renewed bullish momentum. This performance comes as investors seek alternative assets amid growing concerns about traditional market stability.

Meanwhile, the CoinDesk 20 Index, which serves as a gauge for the broader crypto market, rose 0.75% over the past 24 hours. 

Technical Analysis Highlights

• SUI-USD climbed from $3.20 to $3.30, representing a 4.7% gain over the past 24 hours.
• Price action formed a clear uptrend with higher lows and higher highs.
• Volume spiked to 18.2 million during in U.S. morning hours, nearly triple the 24-hour average.
• Strong support was established at $3.24, with resistance emerging at $3.336.
• The $3.30 level now serves as a critical pivot point for further upside potential.
• The 3.316 level was established as a new support zone following the recovery.

Disclaimer: Parts of this article were generated with the assistance from AI tools and reviewed by our editorial team to ensure accuracy and adherence to our standards. For more information, see CoinDesk’s full AI Policy.

Major cryptocurrencies showed little bullish momentum Monday, even as hopes for the U.S.-China trade talks lifted Asian stocks.

Bitcoin

, the leading cryptocurrency by market value, traded flat-to-negative near $105,650, having carved out a doji candle, a sign of indecision, on Sunday, according to data source TradingView.

Data from Blockchain.com showed a marked slowdown in network activity, with the seven-day moving average of daily on-chain transactions falling to 315.48K, the lowest in at least a year.

Payments-focused cryptocurrency XRP struggled to gather upside traction despite topping a bearish trendline from the mid-May highs. The cryptocurrency changed hands at $2.24 at press time, down over 1% on the day (UTC). Volatility may increase this week as the XRP Ledger’s APEX 2025 conference kicks off in Singapore.

Meme cryptocurrency DOGE traded nearly 2% lower, closing in on 18 cents, having failed to establish a foothold above the 100-day simple moving average (SMA) over the weekend.

Hang Seng tops 24K

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index rose 1.3%, topping the 24,000 mark for the first time since March 24, according to data source TradingView. The move came in response to the optimism about the U.S.-China trade talks this week.

“Optimism is as high as it’s been since Trump’s election as top trade deputies will meet in London starting on Monday. There are indications that talks will go all week and Trump himself is optimistic,” ForexLive’s Chief Currency Analyst Adam Button said in a blog post.

“The meeting should go very well,” President Donald Trump said on Truth Social Friday, announcing the new round of trade talks in London.

Other Asian indices, such as South Korea’s KOSPI and China’s Shanghai Composite, also gained ground despite the deepening consumer and factory gate deflation in China.

China’s deflation worsens

China’s consumer prices fell 0.1% year-over-year in May, according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics released on Monday. The CPI first turned negative in February.

Meanwhile, the producer price index, or factory gate prices, fell 3.3% year-over-year in May, registering a sharper decline than the 3.2% drop analysts had expected. Factory gate prices have been in deflation since October 2022.

According to Robin Brooks, senior fellow in the Global Economy and Development program at the Brookings Institution, the U.S. tariffs are generating a deflationary shock for major exporters like China.

“China’s producer price inflation for consumer goods is down to its lowest level since the 2008 crisis. U.S. tariffs will now push China into full-on deflation. All necessary conditions for deflation are there: weak consumption and a debt overhang. U.S. tariffs are now the catalyst…,” Brooks said on X.

The worsening deflation could prompt China to stimulate domestic demand with further liquidity easing.

China’s central bank in May cut the key interest rates by 10 basis points to a historic low while reducing the reserve requirement ratio, releasing liquidity into the market. Last week, the state-run China Securities Journal reported that the People’s Bank of China may lower the reserve requirement ratio further later this year to support growth and restart government bond trading.

More Chinese stimulus could bode well for financial markets, including cryptocurrencies.

Focus on U.S. CPI

The U.S. consumer price index for May due Wednesday will be scrutinized by markets for clues that Trump’s tariffs are adding to price pressures in the economy.

The headline CPI is seen matching April’s pace of 0.2% month-on-month growth, equating to an annualized 2.5% rise versus April’s 2.3% increase, according to FXStreet. Meawhile, the core inflation, which excludes the volatile food and energy component, is forecast to have ticked higher to 2.9% in May from 2.8% in April.

Economists at Barclays expect the data to show first signs of tariffs-related price increases across wide range of core goods.

A hotter-than-expected print could dent Fed rate cuts, potentially injecting downside volatility in financial markets.

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Some of the biggest banking companies in the US are reportedly exploring a team-up to launch a crypto stablecoin.

Companies owned by JPMorgan, Bank of America, Citigroup and Wells Fargo have discussed the possibility of jointly issuing a stablecoin, The Wall Street Journal reported on May 22, citing people familiar with the matter.

Other financial institutions linked to the potential stablecoin include Early Warning Services, the parent company of digital payments network Zelle, and the payment network Clearing House.

The discussions are still in the early stages, and a final decision on the project could change depending on the regulatory environment and the demand for stablecoins.

A JPMorgan spokesperson told Cointelegraph the company had no comment. Bank of America, CitiGroup, and Wells Fargo did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

On May 20, the US Senate voted 66-32 in favor of advancing discussion on the stablecoin-regulating Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for US Stablecoins (GENIUS) Act. 

The bill outlines a regulatory framework for stablecoin collateralization and mandates compliance with Anti-Money Laundering laws. The bill is now headed to debate on the Senate floor.

Earlier this week, White House crypto czar David Sacks said he expects the bill will be passed and that it will receive bipartisan support.

However, high-ranking Democrats plan to amend the bill to include a clause prohibiting President Donald Trump and other US officials from profiting from stablecoins.

Trump and his family launched the crypto platform World Liberty Financial, which created the USD1 stablecoin in March. Critics argue that President Trump stands to personally benefit from passing favorable stablecoin regulation.

Related: World Liberty Financial brushes off oversight concerns from Congress

Stablecoin demand surges

The demand for stablecoins has been on the rise, with nation states adopting and institutions wanting to incorporate stablecoins.

The total market capitalization of stablecoins has shot up to $245 billion from $205 billion at the start of the year, representing a 20% increase.

Earlier this week, it was reported that yield-bearing stablecoins now account for nearly 4.5% of the entire stablecoin market, with a circulating supply of $11 billion.

Austin Campbell, a New York University professor and founder of Zero Knowledge Consulting, said the American banking lobby is “panicking,” as stablecoins can disrupt the traditional banking business model.

Earlier this month, it was reported that tech giant Meta is exploring ways to incorporate stablecoin payments into its platforms.

Magazine: Crypto wanted to overthrow banks, now it’s becoming them in stablecoin fight

According to a Reuters market wrap, world stocks ended the week little‑changed as investors weighed a fresh U.S.–U.K. tariff deal and this weekend’s high‑stakes meeting between Washington and Beijing trade officials.

Stocks tread water on tariff suspense

MSCI’s all‑country equity index inched up just 0.11% to 846.80, trimming a 0.3% weekly loss. Europe’s STOXX 600 added 0.44%, while Germany’s DAX notched another record close.

On Wall Street, the Dow fell 0.29%, the S&P 500 slipped 0.07% and the Nasdaq eked out a fractional gain. Weekly tallies were negative across the board, mirroring broader caution highlighted by the Wall Street Journal as traders braced for new tariff headlines.

Dollar eases while Treasury yields hover

The U.S. Dollar Index slipped 0.28% to 100.37, even as it preserved a weekly advance versus the yen, euro and Swiss franc. Benchmark 10‑year Treasury yields crept up to 4.386%, while the 2‑year note eased to 3.887%.

For additional context on how rising yields ripple through crypto markets, see CryptoSlate’s recent analysis on Treasury yield volatility.

Bitcoin and Ethereum extend gains

Risk appetite rotated toward digital assets, with Bitcoin climbing 0.58% to $103,224—its highest since January—marking a fourth‑straight daily advance. Ether rallied 6.7% to $2,493. Traders cited lingering uncertainty in traditional assets and optimism about eventual rate cuts.

For longer‑term perspectives, CryptoSlate’s feature on Bitcoin price projections through 2025 offers added insight.

Oil and gold catch a bid

• WTI crude settled at $61.02 (+1.85%)
• Brent closed at $63.91 (+1.7%)
• Spot gold firmed 0.67% to $3,327.53 per oz

Both commodities benefited from a softer dollar and hopes that any thaw in trade tensions could bolster demand.

Outlook

All eyes now turn to Saturday’s Geneva summit between U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and China’s Vice‑Premier. While analysts doubt a breakthrough, even incremental signs of progress could set the tone for global risk assets—and by extension, crypto—into next week’s U.S. CPI release and the mid‑May Federal Reserve minutes.

Just weeks ago, discussions around tariffs and U.S. President Donald Trump dominated much of the chatter across major crypto forums and social platforms; however, there now seems to be a rapid shift in sentiment.

Fresh data from the on-chain analytics platform Santiment has revealed a striking pivot: talk of AI agents and altcoin season is now stealing the spotlight.

From Tariffs to Tech

The catalyst behind the earlier conversations was Trump’s announcement in April of the imposition of harsh new tariffs on imports from some of the United States’ biggest trade partners.

The move shook global markets and briefly pulled crypto into the macroeconomic storm. However, the U.S. President is teasing something very different: a “major trade deal” with a “big and highly respected country,” fueling renewed bullish sentiment across risk assets, including crypto.

Nonetheless, Santiment’s social data shows engagements around the topic have ebbed, replaced by growing interest in AI agents, altseason, Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, and Real World Assets (RWA).

With blockchain and artificial intelligence increasingly intersecting, AI-related crypto tokens are gaining traction. According to CoinGecko, the two biggest gainers in the crypto market in the last 24 hours are AI-focused.

Agent Ted (TED), which skyrocketed 111.2% since yesterday, and almost 5,000% over the previous two weeks, powers an AI-driven sports betting platform. REVOX (REX), on the other hand, registered a 47.2% jump in its price in 24 hours. It is the native token of a platform building a shared AI interface through a permissionless machine learning infrastructure.

In general, the category is up almost 5% over the past day compared to Bitcoin’s 2.5% rise in the same period.

Altseason Speculation Ramps Up

Talk of an impending altcoin season, when alternative crypto assets outperform BTC, is also heating up. While the flagship cryptocurrency maintains a strong market dominance at around 62%, the rise of mid-cap and AI tokens has sparked debate over whether a broader rotation into other coins is underway.

Although historically, true altseasons have required a more substantial decline in Bitcoin’s dominance, the uptick in altcoin activity, paired with growing retail interest, is fueling speculation.

Interestingly, this conversation has emerged with BTC pushing toward $100,000, aided by macro tailwinds, including a rate pause by the U.S. Federal Reserve and the easing of trade tensions.

Additionally, mentions of crypto ETFs and RWAs have also risen slightly per Santiment’s analysis. This trend could be a reflection of ongoing experimentations with tokenizing real estate and other off-chain assets, as well as the recent good performances of spot Bitcoin ETFs led by BlackRock’s IBIT, which recently registered its second-highest inflow in a day, with its Bitcoin holdings crossing the 600,000 BTC mark soon after.

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