Julien Bittel, head of macro research at Global Macro Investor, argued that the bull run remains in its early stages based on comprehensive economic indicators.

In a Sept. 8 analysis shared via X, Bittel counters widespread “peak cycle” sentiment in crypto markets, challenging late-cycle narratives by examining traditional economic markers.

Peak sentiment

Classic late-cycle economies typically feature extreme manufacturing sentiment with ISM readings around 60, elevated services sentiment, high homebuilder confidence, strong consumer and worker confidence, bullish investor sentiment, and accelerating wage growth.

Bittel said current data paints a different picture. When scoring inputs from ISM, NAHB, NFIB, BLS, AAII, and The Conference Board into a composite sentiment measure, US economic sentiment remains “very subdued” and far from euphoric late-cycle extremes.

He stated:

“This does not look like an above-trend late-cycle economy. It looks much more like an early-cycle economy trying to build momentum.”

Central bank policy provides additional support for this thesis. Nearly 90% of central banks globally are cutting rates, creating what Bittel describes as “extraordinary” conditions and “a massive tailwind for the business cycle” on a forward-looking basis.

Oil prices reinforce the early-cycle argument, trading nearly 20% below trend and continuing to fall. This represents easing financial conditions rather than the tightening typically associated with late-cycle dynamics.

Historically, oil prices running 50% above trend have signaled recession since the early 1970s.

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Bull cycle in early stages

Temporary Help Services data shows “early-cycle vibes” with rising growth from profoundly negative levels, indicating economic recovery rather than rollover.

According to Bittel, late-cycle periods typically feature positive year-on-year growth that’s slowing, reflecting an overheated economy losing steam.

He attributes rising unemployment to the lagging nature of jobs data, calling it “a six-month look in the rear-view mirror.”

Businesses first increase overtime hours and temporary workers before committing to expensive full-time hires with benefits and pensions.

Bittel also frames current conditions as “early-cycle” transitioning to “mid-cycle,” describing the progression as “Macro Spring” (growth up, inflation down), moving toward “Macro Summer” (growth up, inflation up).

He concluded that this macro perspective challenges the prevailing crypto market sentiment, which suggests that the bull cycle has peaked. Instead, he assessed that the current economic conditions support continued expansion rather than contraction.

Mentioned in this article

The sell-side risk ratio (SSR) is an important predictor of holder behavior. The Sell-side Risk Ratio (SSR) measures the potential “risk” of sell-side pressure entering the market. At heart, it signals how likely (or forceful) a wave of distribution could be relative to both price and the current liquidity climate.

If the SSR trends are high, it often suggests a significant supply overhang waiting in the wings: large holders might be looking to realize profits or short-term holders might be itching to sell into strength. Conversely, investors are less willing to part with their coins when the SSR is low or hovering in an equilibrium band or have no compelling reason to liquidate in size at current price levels.

Fundamentally, SSR matters because it can foreshadow significant inflection points in the market. It usually indicates accelerated profit-taking (or fear-based selling) if it spikes. When the ratio remains flat or retreats, it suggests the market has reached some level of balance between buyers and sellers, thereby signaling less near-term volatility, at least until a new catalyst emerges.

Bitcoin is famously sensitive to shifts in global liquidity. When liquidity is abundant, risk assets like Bitcoin tend to thrive; when liquidity tightens, risk assets often wilt as capital has fewer avenues (and less inclination) to chase higher-beta opportunities.

Because the SSR partly reflects the psychology of existing holders, whether they are willing to sell in bulk or continue to hold, tracking it alongside market volume can offer a unique measure of incoming or outgoing liquidity. A low or stable SSR in a declining liquidity environment often indicates that most “weak” hands have already sold, leaving a base of relatively strong hands who are more comfortable holding through volatility.

The SSR appears notably flat within a mid-range in the second half of March. This flatness suggests a kind of ceasefire between buyers and sellers. Put differently, neither side is especially motivated to take aggressive action.

This indicates a lack of heavy profit-taking. If long-term holders or short-term speculators believed Bitcoin was overvalued, we would see a noticeable uptick in SSR as more coins came onto the market. Instead, the stable ratio hints that participants are not rushing to cash out.

The data also indicates an absence of sell-offs. Typically, leading into a bear market, we see some capitulation where the realized cap starts to drop significantly, and the SSR might spike (reflecting panic or forced selling). Instead, the market has been drifting, with only marginal selling events. That keeps SSR comfortably in a range rather than skyrocketing.

Data from CryptoQuant also shows that spot trading volumes have pulled back from peaks seen late last year and earlier in the first quarter. Spot volumes dropped from around the $15 billion per day region (in some instances) to roughly $5 billion per day more recently. Meanwhile, the price has been meandering around mid-range levels, implying there is not enough fresh demand to push us significantly higher, but also not enough supply flood to tank prices outright.

The data suggests that as volume declined, price entered a sideways or consolidative phase, reinforcing the idea that large new capital inflows have momentarily slowed. With lower spot volumes, the price also struggles to break out strongly in either direction.

On-chain data shows long-term holders (LTH) have not significantly reduced their positions. Indeed, a large chunk of BTC’s realized cap is controlled by addresses that display historically low spending behavior. This indicates a sense of “conviction” that helps keep SSR from spiking since these holders are less likely to sell at current price levels.

The flat reading of the SSR ratio indicates a market at an uneasy standstill: not enough fresh capital to fuel a rally, yet no mass exodus to trigger a punishing drawdown. Despite shrinking spot volumes and ETF outflows, we are not seeing the same frantic selling or steep price declines typical of a full-blown bear.

Instead, Bitcoin’s long-term holder base continues to prop up the market, indicating that if global liquidity improves, the stage could be set for renewed upside. Meanwhile, a low-liquidity environment and a holder-dominated supply keep Bitcoin floating in a mid-range zone, waiting for the next wave of conviction, whether its bullish or bearish.

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