NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies has been tracking Asteroid 2024 YR4 since it first came into view last year. While initial estimates predicted up to a 3.1% probability that the asteroid would strike the Earth, with additional data, that probability has dropped to 0.00081%. Using the last bit of data the James Webb Space Telescope was able to gather before the asteroid makes its way around the Sun, the center has also updated the probability that the asteroid will strike the moon, raising it to 4.3%, up from an earlier estimate of 1.2%.

NASA emphasizes that if an unlikely collision were to occur, it would not alter the moon’s orbit. According to New Scientist, however, while the moon itself may not be at risk, the debris from the impact could endanger the thousands of artificial satellites orbiting the Earth.

A team from the University of Western Ontario in Canada calculated that the impact could create a kilometer-wide crater, spewing an amount of debris at satellites “equivalent to what we would expect to see in years or even decades, but occurring in just a few days.” The debris would likely destroy any satellites but could cause irreparable damage.

NASA’s Planetary Defense Coordination Office told New Scientist it would be “premature to speculate on potential response options” at this point. When 2024 YR4 comes back into view in 2028, scientists will have about four years to refine the data and develop a plan if a collision appears likely.

Previously:
• NASA bringing asteroid hunters to Sundance
• Asteroid flying close to Earth turns out to be douchebag’s car
• Comparing the size of known asteroids to New York City

Good Morning, Asia. Here’s what’s making news in the markets:

Welcome to Asia Morning Briefing, a daily summary of top stories during U.S. hours and an overview of market moves and analysis. For a detailed overview of U.S. markets, see CoinDesk’s Crypto Daybook Americas.

As Asia begins the trading week, bitcoin {{BTC}} is trading above $100,500 as the initial volatility from news over the weekend that the U.S. struck some of Iran’s nuclear facilities begins to subside.

While prices briefly dipped below six figures on Sunday in a risk-off reaction, markets have since stabilized. Equity futures are flat, and gold is up only marginally, suggesting that traders are not yet pricing in a broader escalation.

The lack of follow-through in traditional markets may reflect expectations that Iran’s response will be contained or delayed, rather than immediate and destabilizing.

Crude oil is holding its gains near $76 per barrel after spiking nearly 4% Sunday evening on fears that Iran could block the Strait of Hormuz, a key chokepoint for global oil shipments. Still, commentary from U.S. officials and muted early-week trading suggest that investors remain in a wait-and-see mode.

In crypto markets, altcoins that had mirrored BTC’s weekend drop, like ether

, XRP , and solana’s SOL , are also clawing back losses.

For now, the market appears to be treating the U.S.-Iran clash as a geopolitical flashpoint, not a structural break.

OKX Considering U.S. IPO: Report

Crypto exchange OKX is considering a public listing in the U.S., according to a report from The Information.

Earlier this year, the exchange announced a U.S. expansion after settling with the Department of Justice over accusations that it operated in the country without a money transmitter license.

Among other crypto-linked companies, Bullish, a competitor to OKX and the parent company of CoinDesk, is also said to be considering an IPO given investors’ appetite for companies with exposure to digital assets.

OKX told CoinDesk it had no comment on the matter.

Polymarket Bettors Less Certain About Second U.S. Strike on Iran

Polymarket bettors are cooling to the idea that the U.S will hit Iran a second time before the end of the month.

The ‘yes’ side of a contract asking if the U.S. will conduct another military action on Iran by June 30 is now trading at 54%, from 74% in the hours after the initial strike on Iranian nuclear sites.

There appears to be a growing market belief that deconfliction – on both sides – is on the agenda, as evidenced by another contract asking bettors about the likelihood of Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz, which is currently trading at 49% down from 52%.

Market Movements:

• BTC: Bitcoin rebounded to $101,419 after a volatile 4.5% intraday swing, finding strong support at $99,000 amid geopolitical tensions and surging institutional buying interest, according to CoinDesk Research’s technical analysis data.
• ETH: Ethereum fell 2.3% to $2,237 amid U.S.-Iran tensions, breaking a six-week consolidation pattern despite over $500 million in institutional accumulation.
• Gold: Bank of America analysts predict gold could hit $4,000 an ounce within a year, an 18% jump, driven less by geopolitical tensions and more by mounting U.S. fiscal debt and a global shift by central banks away from the dollar toward gold.
• Nikkei 225: Asia-Pacific markets fell Monday as the U.S. strikes on Iranian nuclear sites fueled oil price spikes and fears of broader Middle East escalation, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 down 0.56%.

Elsewhere in Crypto:

At the 2025 Bitcoin Conference in Las Vegas, Strike founder and CEO Jack Mullers announced a new system of Bitcoin back loans on Strike at single-digit interest rates.

Jack Mullers began his keynote speech by pointing out the biggest problem. Fiat currency.

“The best time to go to Whole Foods and buy eggs with your dollars was in 1913,” Mullers said. “Then you’re screwed.”

What is the solution?

“The solution is Bitcoin,” Mullers said. “Bitcoin is money that matches what no one can print. You cannot print. You cannot deny my time and energy. You cannot take me of owning assets, getting debts, living sovereignly, protecting my family, my priced possessions. Bitcoin is something we were invented to do that.”

Maraz gave the audience a power message by explaining that people should embrace every dollar they have in Bitcoin. People should also spend a little bit of it to lead a lovely life.

“You can’t huddle forever,” Jack said.

While people are talking about loans they borrow against Bitcoin. He explained why banks that place 20% interest on Bitcoin-backed loans are ridiculous.

“All these professional economists, they’re like Bitcoin is dangerous and unstable,” Mullers said. “No, not. This is an epic seven-year volatility, and the orange one in the middle is Bitcoin. It’s riskless and not volatile. It’s a little more volatile than an apple, but much less volatile than a Tesla.”

“As Bitcoin matures, its volatility decreases,” Jack continued. “Bitcoin’s volatility is at a point where it’s less dangerous than Tesla stocks. You shouldn’t pay double-digit fees for your loan.”

The Mallers have announced his new loan system with a strike of 9-13% on interest rates. This allows people to get $10,000 to $1 billion in loans.

“Take responsibility. This is a debt. In my opinion, debt is like a fire. It can warm civilization. It can warm a home, but if you go crazy, it can burn your home.”

“Life is short,” Jack said. “I travel, but with Bitcoin, I can take something better.”

Strike CEO Jack Mallers said his new role as CEO of Bitcoin treasury firm Twenty One Capital won’t distract him from heading Strike, revealing the platform processed over $6 billion in volume in 2024.

“This is not a shift in my commitment; it’s an extension of it,” Mallers said in an April 25 letter to Strike investors.

Every decision based on if it is “good for Bitcoin”

“If Bitcoin wins, humanity wins. Every business decision I make starts with one question: Is this good for Bitcoin? Twenty One exists because I believe it is good for Bitcoin and, therefore, good for the world,” Mallers said.

Mallers explained that Strike, a Bitcoin payments platform, and Twenty One Capital have different goals. He said Strike focuses on making “Bitcoin accessible globally,” while Twenty One aims to increase “Bitcoin ownership per share (BPS) and pioneer Bitcoin-native financial tools.”

“These are separate companies, but they share the same ethos: Bitcoin wins, we win,” he said.

It comes after Twenty One Capital announced its launch on April 23, with the backing of Tether, SoftBank and Cantor Fitzgerald.

The firm is looking to challenge Michael Saylor’s Strategy to become the “superior vehicle for investors seeking capital-efficient Bitcoin exposure.” It revealed its plans to launch with 42,000 Bitcoin (BTC).

Mallers shared key metrics for Strike publicly for the first time, revealing that in 2024, the firm posted over $6 billion in volume, recorded 600% year-on-year growth, maintained an 85% gross profit margin, and reported zero customer acquisition costs.

Mallers said that despite maintaining a team of 75 employees, the company expects to “generate 8-9 figures in net profit in 2025.”

Several crypto enthusiasts had taken to social media to ask how the logistics would work for Mallers, being the CEO of Strike and Twenty One Capital.

Related: 5 Bitcoin charts predicting BTC price rally toward $100K by May

Crypto commentator “Alex” asked in an April 25 X post, “What will be the fate of Strike? New incoming CEO? Or will he pull an Elon Musk?” Similarly, Domingo Guerra asked, “Who will be running Strike!?”

Meanwhile, several crypto industry participants have publicly speculated that Twenty One Capital may acquire Strike in the future. Swan Bitcoin CEO Cory Klippsten said it is “probably safe to assume that this company will acquire strike.” 

Daniel Sempere Pico said, “How long before Twenty One acquires Strike?” However, neither Mallers or Strike has indicated any intention of doing so.

Magazine: Pokémon on Sui rumors, Polymarket bets on Filipino Pope: Asia Express

]]> https://earlybirdsinvest.com/bitcoiner-jack-mallers-assures-strike-investors-twenty-one-wont-distract/feed/ 0 32869 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/bitcoin-options-oi-swells-to-38b-as-calls-crowd-at-100000-strike-price/ https://earlybirdsinvest.com/bitcoin-options-oi-swells-to-38b-as-calls-crowd-at-100000-strike-price/#respond Fri, 25 Apr 2025 03:53:28 +0000 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/bitcoin-options-oi-swells-to-38b-as-calls-crowd-at-100000-strike-price/ Bitcoin (BTC) options open interest expanded from $30.33 billion on April 21 to $37.92 billion on April 24, a 25% jump that outpaced Bitcoin’s 5.5% rise from $87,506 to $92,352 over the same stretch.

Such a swift build in notional exposure shows traders rushing to add convex positions rather than thickening linear futures books. This shift often precedes sharp spot moves once dealers start adjusting delta hedges.

Deribit’s strike sheet explains the mood. The largest concentration sits at $100,000, where 17,420 call contracts tower above every other level. Another 10,660 calls rest at $110,000 and 11,730 at $95,000, while 11,600 calls cluster at $90,000.

On the downside, puts are arrayed at $80,000 (11,590 contracts), $75,000 (10,880), and $70,000 (10,400). In aggregate, calls total 51,410 contracts versus 32,870 puts, a 1.56 call-to-put ratio that leans firmly toward upside exposure even though Bitcoin has yet to revisit its March high near $97,000.

Because most of these strikes sit out-of-the-money, the options book carries sizeable positive gamma that intensifies as the spot price climbs. An option is out-of-the-money when its strike sits on the wrong side of the current spot price; calls have strikes above spot, puts below, so the contract would have no intrinsic value if exercised immediately.

Gamma measures how quickly an option’s delta (its price sensitivity to the underlying) changes for each one-unit move in the underlying; high positive gamma means the position’s hedge requirement accelerates as spot nears the strike, often forcing dealers to buy when the price rises and sell when it falls.

When Bitcoin probed above $93,000 on April 22 and April 23, dealers who sold these calls began buying spot and CME futures to stay neutral, reinforcing the advance. Once the market slipped back to the low $92,000s on April 24, that same gamma flipped, forcing small‐scale sales that kept the pullback orderly. In short, the strike distribution is already steering intraday flows despite the contracts being weeks away from expiry.

The options-to-futures open-interest ratio confirms the structural change. After hovering near 55% early in the week, the metric edged down to 54.23% on April 23, then vaulted to 58.76% by April 25, the highest reading this quarter.

A ratio pushing toward 60% tells us the options market is absorbing liquidity faster than the futures market. Larger relative options exposure generally corresponds with higher implied volatility and more pronounced dealer hedging feedback loops, both conditions that can magnify spot swings in both directions.

Several observations follow from the current setup. First, a price move through $95,000 would push a large pocket of call open interest into the money, forcing counterparties to chase spot and possibly drag Bitcoin toward the psychological $100,000 level. Second, downside protection is thin between $85,000 and $80,000; should spot break below that shelf, put gamma could accelerate the fall toward $75,000 where the next notable block of interest sits.

Third, the rapid expansion of notional exposure relative to a modest spot advance reveals traders paying for leverage rather than deploying fresh capital outright, a stance that can unwind suddenly if spot stalls. Fourth, the growing options share of total derivatives activity hints that sophisticated desks are bracing for wider price ranges during the remainder of the quarter, a view consistent with rising implied volatility across one-month tenors on Deribit.

Finally, the combination of elevated call interest, heavy dealer gamma, and a still-robust futures base means any decisive break of key strikes could inject a burst of directional energy that pushes Bitcoin closer to $100,000.

A close above $94,000 would leave the market barely two percent from lighting the $95,000 and $100,000 clusters, creating conditions for reflexive upside. Conversely, a drift below $88,000 would place dealers long gamma against sizable put positions, potentially smoothing declines into the high 70,000s, but also draining speculative momentum.

Either path carries more kinetic potential than last week because the street is now running a larger, more top-heavy options book against a futures base that has not grown in tandem.

The post Bitcoin options OI swells to $38B as calls crowd at $100,000 strike price appeared first on CryptoSlate.