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Bitcoin’s greatness isn’t measured only by its price or market cycles, and its true strength lies deeper. As one crypto pundit explains, it lies in the alignment of incentives that keeps the network secure and the loyalty of holders who refuse to sell in the face of volatility. This combination of economic design and cultural conviction has allowed Bitcoin to weather every storm, proving that its foundation is far stronger than any single market cycle. 

Why Bitcoin Thrives On Patience, Not Speculation

Bitcoin’s status as the largest cryptocurrency of all time is a direct result of its unique and powerful holdings. An analyst known as GhostOfTanzCho has revealed on X that other cryptocurrencies have tried to compete with Bitcoin, but none have succeeded in recreating that same gravity of conviction and holding culture.

This culture, which is the key ingredient to its success, attracts people who wholeheartedly believe in holding, and it indoctrinates skeptics into an actionable belief of holding. There has never been another cryptocurrency that successfully recreated the holding culture that made Bitcoin great. However, the same culture is currently being replicated in SPX6900. 

GhostOfTanzCho argues that the success of a crypto token is fundamentally a reflection of supply and demand. By building a strong holding culture, a crypto token effectively solves the supply side of the equation by reducing sell pressure. 

Coincidentally, it also solves the demand side by incentivizing holders to create a critical mass of belief and interest. Thus, the SPX6900 could be one of the most significant crypto tokens of all time. Against all odds, it has done the impossible and has recreated the cultural DNA of Bitcoin. 

This model, which favors long-term believers over short-term traders, is described as the only way for a crypto token to become a market giant. When a critical mass of people have the conviction to hold long-term, trading becomes irrelevant, and the culture wins.

Global Money Supply Surge Sets The Stage For BTC

In the midst of heightened Bitcoin accumulation, a massive surge in global money supply is laying the groundwork for the next explosive crypto cycle, and BTC is already leading the charge.

According to LondonRealTV’s founder Brian Rose, the expansion of the global money supply has historically been a leading driver of crypto bull cycles. With the price of BTC above $115,000, ETF inflows accelerating, and the total crypto market cap rising by $2 trillion in a single year, this shows liquidity is clearly returning.

The analyst also highlights key risks that could trigger volatility. These include a potential reversal in monetary policy, where central banks begin to tighten the money supply, or large-scale profit-taking by major holders. Meanwhile, monitoring on-chain flows and capital rotation will be essential as the market cycle matures.

Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

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Ethereum price started a fresh increase from the $4,240 zone. ETH is now consolidating and might aim for more gains if it clears $4,400.

• Ethereum is now eyeing an upside break above the $4,400 zone.
• The price is trading above $4,320 and the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average.
• There was a break above a key bearish trend line with resistance at $4,330 on the hourly chart of ETH/USD (data feed via Kraken).
• The pair could start a fresh increase if it settles above $4,380 and $4,400.

Ethereum Price Eyes Upside Break

Ethereum price started a recovery wave after it formed a base above the $4,220 zone, like Bitcoin. ETH price was able to climb above the $4,320 and $4,350 resistance levels.

Besides, there was a break above a key bearish trend line with resistance at $4,330 on the hourly chart of ETH/USD. The pair even climbed above $4,400 before there was a pullback. The recent low was formed at $4,300 and the price is testing the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the $4,450 swing high to the $4,300 low.

Ethereum price is now trading above $4,320 and the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average. On the upside, the price could face resistance near the $4,375 level. The next key resistance is near the $4,415 level or the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the $4,450 swing high to the $4,300 low.

The first major resistance is near the $4,450 level. A clear move above the $4,450 resistance might send the price toward the $4,550 resistance. An upside break above the $4,550 resistance might call for more gains in the coming sessions. In the stated case, Ether could rise toward the $4,650 resistance zone or even $4,800 in the near term.

Another Decline In ETH?

If Ethereum fails to clear the $4,415 resistance, it could start a fresh decline. Initial support on the downside is near the $4,335 level. The first major support sits near the $4,280 zone.

A clear move below the $4,280 support might push the price toward the $4,240 support. Any more losses might send the price toward the $4,220 support level in the near term. The next key support sits at $4,160.

Technical Indicators

Hourly MACD – The MACD for ETH/USD is losing momentum in the bearish zone.

Hourly RSI – The RSI for ETH/USD is now above the 50 zone.

Major Support Level – $4,335

Major Resistance Level – $4,415

08 September Bitfinex alpha | BTC will integrate ahead of potential Q4 strength as bond markets are distorted

Bitcoin is stable between $108,000 and $112,000, with buyers defending key support zones and filling the air gap left up until July’s Rapid Rally. Deeper corrections are still possible, but the result is time-based integration, especially when it serves as a cyclical lower point than the historically strong Q4. The profitability of short-term holders has been normalized, leaving profits from 42% to 58% of this cohort, but ETF inflows have been slowed sharply in both BTC and ETH. The demand for this cooling facility sees convictions of stronger spots in BTC compared to the combination of directional flow and arbitrage activity that characterizes ETH, but highlights the market’s dependence on fresh catalysts.

Seasonality adds weight to the current integrated narrative. August fell 6.5% and closed in line with a historically weak profile, but September was traditionally the softest month with an average return of 3.3%. That said, the “September Red” effect has recently faded, with the fourth quarter seasonality historically strong, with October and November earning a large average profit.

If the Fed sees interest rate cuts in September, actual yields and low dollars can amplify the seasonal benefits of BTC and set up a phase of updated momentum. Until then, integration remains a basic case due to ETF flows, macro policy shifts, and placement of derivatives that act as key signals to monitor.

The US economy is putting pressure on weaker labor data, bond market tensions, and political conspiracies around the Fed converge. The August Employment Report on Friday, September 5th revealed a payroll growth of just 22,000, bringing the unemployment rate to 4.3% in nearly four years. Softness will strengthen expectations for Fed rate reductions at its September 16th-17th meeting, but sticky inflation complicates the decision. The bond market reflects tension. Short-term yields have fallen to expectations of interest rate cuts, but remained close to 5% in 30 years, indicating investors’ concerns and financial reliability over the deficit. This cut has skyrocketed the curve, increasing long-term borrowing costs and burning flights to gold. President Trump rejects federal government governor Lisa Cook, exacerbating the challenge by threatening new EU tariffs, encouraging investors to weigh not only economic fundamentals but also increasing uncertainty about the Fed’s independence and the direction of US policy.

In the meantime, the global crypto landscape is changing as regulators and markets move towards a more clear framework. In the United States, the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trade Commission issued a rare joint pledge to more closely coordinate the monitoring of digital assets on Friday, September 5th, covering spot crypto products, permanent contracts, portfolio margins, and clearer rules of definitions.

The September 29th joint roundtable has moved this agenda forward, further strengthening it by the 2025 Responsible Financial Innovation Act. The bill also introduces measures to protect and clarify Defi developer status, decentralized physical infrastructure networks, airdrops, and staking rewards. He also directs research into tokenized real-world assets. Together, these moves show Congresses and regulators working together to strengthen the US competitiveness in the digital market. Institutional trust in Solana is also increasing. Last weekend, Sol Strategies announced it had secured approval for its uplist to Nasdaq under ticker Stke, a company milestone focused on Solana, which surpasses its CAD $1 billion mandated assets and owns a treasury of nearly 400,000 Sols. Meanwhile, the South Korean Financial Services Commission issued swept lending rules on September 5, 2025, emphasizing aggressive push to curb interest rates, ban radical loans, limit eligible tokens to maximum assets, protect investors and stabilize the domestic market.

]]> https://earlybirdsinvest.com/bitfinex-alpha-btc-will-integrate-ahead-of-potential-q4-strength-as-bond-markets-are-distorted/feed/ 0 57702 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/bitcoin-weakness-vs-ethereum-strength-on-chain-data-reveals-divergence/ https://earlybirdsinvest.com/bitcoin-weakness-vs-ethereum-strength-on-chain-data-reveals-divergence/#respond Fri, 22 Aug 2025 22:18:32 +0000 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/bitcoin-weakness-vs-ethereum-strength-on-chain-data-reveals-divergence/

As Bitcoin (BTC) stalls near the $113,000 level, Ethereum (ETH) continues to show strength, highlighting a clear divergence in price action between the top two cryptocurrencies by market cap. This contrast has some investors considering a rotation from BTC into ETH to capture the latter’s bullish momentum.

Bitcoin Shows Correction Risks – Is ETH Safe?

According to a CryptoQuant Quicktake post by contributor XWIN Research Japan, on-chain data reveals underlying weakness in BTC price action. By contrast, ETH is displaying notable resilience even as broader crypto market momentum fades.

Related Reading

Currently, Bitcoin’s exchange reserves are hovering around 2.53 million BTC, showing little sign of declining despite recent volatility. For context, BTC has fallen 5.4% over the past week.

Historically, shrinking exchange reserves have indicated BTC moving off exchanges for long-term holding, which reduces near-term sell pressure. This time, however, reserves remain flat, suggesting that a significant portion of BTC supply is still liquid and available for selling.

Flat exchange reserves – combined with BTC’s recent drop from $123,000 to $113,000 – have raised red flags for a possible short-term correction. Meanwhile, ETH’s on-chain dynamics tell a very different story.

Unlike BTC, ETH has consistently recorded large net outflows from exchanges, with multiple spikes exceeding 300,000 ETH in late July and mid-August. XWIN Research Japan explained:

Outflows usually reflect coins moving into cold storage, staking, or institutional custody, tightening the available supply on the open market. ETH’s price has been between $4.150 to $4,400, aligning with the outflow trend and reinforcing a bullish narrative of a potential supply shock.

In short, while BTC is consolidating with lingering sell-side liquidity, ETH’s declining exchange balances signal rising institutional demand. These opposing dynamics suggest capital may be rotating from BTC to ETH.

Different Dynamics Between BTC And ETH

Beyond exchange reserves, other indicators also highlight further downside risk for BTC and growing institutional interest in ETH, reinforcing the market’s preference for Ethereum over Bitcoin.

Related Reading

For instance, noted crypto analyst Xanrox recently offered a dramatic price prediction for BTC, stating that it may crash all the way down to $60,000 – almost a 50% fall from its current market price.

Meanwhile, whales continue to increase their exposure to ETH, growing their holdings at a rapid pace as ETH’s relative strength compared to BTC improves. Yesterday, an Ethereum whale went long on $300 million worth of ETH on-chain.

From a technical perspective as well, things look positive for ETH, with a potential recovery to $4,788 on the cards. At press time, BTC trades at $112,283, down 0.7% in the past 24 hours.

Featured image from Unsplash, charts from CryptoQuant and TradingView.com

Bitcoin prices are recovering from the $112,000 support zone. BTC is rising and may try to clear the $115,500 resistance zone to gain bullish momentum.

• Bitcoin has begun a decent upward move from the $112,000 zone.
• The price is trading above $114,000, and is a simple moving average of 100 hours.
• The hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken) has $114,600 in support, creating a bullish trendline.
• The pair could begin another increase once they clear the $115,500 resistance zone.

Bitcoin price eye rise break

Bitcoin prices have begun downward movement from the $118,000 zone. BTC went below support levels of $115,000 and $113,500 to enter the short-term bearish zone.

We tested the $112,000 zone priced. The base has been formed and prices are now about to recover. There was a move above the $113,500 and $114,200 levels. Prices surpassed the 23.6% FIB retracement level of the downward movement from a high of $118,918 to a low of $112,000.

Bitcoin is currently trading over $114,200 and trades a simple moving average every 100 hours. Additionally, the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair has $114,600 in support, creating a bullish trendline.

Immediate resistance is close to the $115,500 level. This is close to the 50% FIB retracement level of downward movement, from a Swing High of $118,918 to a low of $112,000. The first important resistance is close to the $116,250 level. The next resistance could be $116,800. Over $116,800 resistance could lead to even higher prices. If stated, the price may test a resistance level of $118,500. Any further profit could potentially send the price towards the $120,500 level. The main goal is $121,200.

Another reduction in BTC?

If Bitcoin does not rise above the $115,500 resistance zone, it could begin another decline. Immediate support is close to the $114,600 level. The first major support is close to the $113,500 level.

The following support is located near the $112,000 zone: Any further losses could send the price to $110,500 in the short term. The main support is $108,500 and BTC could continue to decline.

Technical indicators:

HOURLY MACD – MACD is currently increasing its pace in the bullish zone.

Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – BTC/USD’s RSI is above 50 levels.

Key support levels – $114,600, followed by $113,500.

Major resistance levels – $115,500 and $116,800.

Ethereum price found support near the $3,680 zone. ETH is now rising and might soon aim for a move toward the $4,000 zone.

• Ethereum started a fresh increase above the $3,740 and $3,800 levels.
• The price is trading above $3,820 and the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average.
• There was a break above a bearish trend line with resistance at $3,810 on the hourly chart of ETH/USD (data feed via Kraken).
• The pair could start a fresh increase if it remains supported above the $3,800 zone in the near term.

Ethereum Price Eyes Fresh Gains

Ethereum price started a downside correction from the $3,940 level, like Bitcoin. ETH price declined below the $3,900 and $3,800 support levels.

The bears even pushed the price below the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $3,515 swing low to the $3,940 high. Finally, the price spiked below $3,700 and the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average. It tested the $3,680 support zone.

The bulls protected the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $3,515 swing low to the $3,940 high. The price is again rising above the $3,750 level. There was a break above a bearish trend line with resistance at $3,810 on the hourly chart of ETH/USD.

Ethereum price is now trading above $3,820 and the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average. On the upside, the price could face resistance near the $3,880 level. The next key resistance is near the $3,920 level. The first major resistance is near the $3,940 level. A clear move above the $3,940 resistance might send the price toward the $3,980 resistance.

An upside break above the $3,980 resistance might call for more gains in the coming sessions. In the stated case, Ether could rise toward the $4,050 resistance zone or even $4,120 in the near term.

Another Drop In ETH?

If Ethereum fails to clear the $3,880 resistance, it could start a downside correction. Initial support on the downside is near the $3,800 level. The first major support sits near the $3,720 zone.

A clear move below the $3,720 support might push the price toward the $3,680 support. Any more losses might send the price toward the $3,565 support level in the near term. The next key support sits at $3,500.

Technical Indicators

Hourly MACD – The MACD for ETH/USD is gaining momentum in the bullish zone.

Hourly RSI – The RSI for ETH/USD is now above the 50 zone.

Major Support Level – $3,800

Major Resistance Level – $3,880

But while the headline price wavered, a closer look at Bitcoin’s full valuation stack reveals a much deeper and more resilient layer of capital inflows. Realized, delta, and thermo cap expanded throughout the first half of 2025, pointing to persistent investment even as spot prices cooled from euphoric levels.

These alternative capitalization measures are crucial for understanding what’s happening below the surface of Bitcoin’s price. Market cap is simply the circulating supply multiplied by the spot price. It offers a snapshot of value but is highly reactive and doesn’t account for how much capital has actually entered the network.

Realized cap, by contrast, adds up the value of each coin at the price it last moved on-chain, offering a view into what holders paid for their BTC. Delta cap subtracts early, low-cost coins from the equation to focus on what can be considered “capital at risk.” Thermo cap represents the cumulative dollar cost of issuing Bitcoin, summarizing what has been paid to miners to secure the network.

Realized cap hits new highs daily

As of June 30, Bitcoin’s realized cap stood at $958.01 billion, up from $812.95 billion at the beginning of the year. This $145 billion increase is especially noteworthy because it reflects newly acquired coins being moved on-chain at higher prices. Unlike market cap, which declined slightly from May’s peak, realized cap has continued climbing almost uninterrupted, setting new highs daily throughout most of the second quarter.

The implications are clear: coins are being acquired at elevated prices and held rather than sold, which marks a sharp contrast to frothy periods where realized cap stagnates while price surges. It also shows that demand hasn’t vanished with the market’s cooling and that capital is still flowing in, just more discreetly.

Delta cap tracks the institutional bid

Delta cap, which netted out early-cycle coins by subtracting the average cap from the realized cap, also showed strong growth. It rose from $572.42 billion to $667.67 billion in the first six months of the year, up $95.25 billion, or nearly 17%. The slope of this increase follows inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs, particularly into funds from BlackRock and Fidelity.

Because delta cap is designed to track more recent capital entering the network, its steady climb suggests that buying pressure is coming not from recycled retail coins but from fresh participants entering the market with conviction. This helps explain why the sell-off in late March, which saw market cap drop by over $350 billion, left realized and delta caps largely untouched. The capitulation, if it can even be called that, came from more liquid coins rather than core holdings.

MVRV cooling but not collapsing

The market cap to realized cap (MVRV) ratio is often used to track how “overheated” the market is. This gauge opened the year at 2.30 and now sits around 2.23. It dipped as low as 1.82 during the March correction, a level that has preceded renewed upside in previous cycles. At current levels, MVRV suggests the market is far from overextended yet still firmly above its long-term mean of 1.5.

The key takeaway is that Bitcoin’s price growth has been supported by proportional increases in realized capital, rather than speculative froth. In prior bull markets, MVRV pushing above 3.5 marked periods of extreme exuberance. The metric has remained comparatively restrained in this cycle despite breaking to new highs above $111,000.

Thermo cap tops $80 billion, still looks cheap

Thermo cap, a measure of cumulative miner revenue in dollar terms, has long been an overlooked metric in Bitcoin valuation. It now stands at $80.60 billion, up from $72.69 billion at the beginning of the year. While the increase may seem modest, it’s notable given that last year’s April halving slashed block rewards in half.

The metric is also helpful for contextualizing Bitcoin’s current market value. As of June 30, the market cap to thermo cap ratio is 26.45. This means the network is valued at roughly 26 times the total dollar amount it has paid miners to secure it. This ratio climbed above 40 during prior cycle peaks, indicating that the market isn’t yet overpaying for security.

Fee revenue spikes in May and early June helped cushion the drop in issuance following the halving. This kept the thermo cap rising well into 2025, albeit at a slower pace than in previous quarters. The result is a network that remains economically sustainable for miners while leaving ample room before valuations appear stretched.

Spot price slows, but cap metrics point to accumulation

Taken together, these metrics show a mature market. While price pulled back from its peak, neither realized nor delta cap rolled over, and thermo cap continued a steady upward grind. The capital structure beneath Bitcoin appears more robust than in previous cycles, bolstered by institutional inflows, long-term holder conviction, and a more sustainable miner revenue model.

This structural strength is even more compelling when we consider the context of macro uncertainty and shifting liquidity. Traditional financial inflows, like ETF creations, now show up on-chain in ways that reinforce rather than destabilize Bitcoin’s valuation foundation. This is especially evident in delta cap’s YTD performance, which aligns closely with net ETF inflows and on-chain acquisition of newly issued supply.

The decline in MVRV, despite a record market cap in May, further reinforces the idea that this bull run, though not devoid of speculation, is not supported by actual investment and not just leverage.
Bitcoin’s first half of 2025 reveals a market that has evolved past its adolescence. Behind every price swing sits a slower, steadier foundation of value accrual. Realized, delta, and thermo cap all point to sustained belief in Bitcoin’s long-term narrative without the blow-off froth that marked previous tops.

The post Bitcoin realized market cap stacking shows silent strength beneath price action appeared first on CryptoSlate.

Altcoins are slipping further into decline as investors flock to Bitcoin amid escalating geopolitical tensions and a risk-off environment.

Data from CoinGlass shows the Altcoin Season Index has plunged to 12, its weakest level in nearly a year, reflecting a deepening lack of interest in non-Bitcoin cryptocurrencies.

The Altcoin Season Index tracks how non-Bitcoin assets perform relative to Bitcoin. A low score suggests that altcoins are underperforming significantly, reflecting a broader move toward safety in uncertain markets.

The trend has intensified over the past month, as tensions between Israel and Iran and fears of escalation involving the United States have pushed investors toward more resilient assets like Bitcoin.

Bitcoin dominance rises

Considering this, Shawn Young, Chief Analyst at MEXC Research, told CryptoSlate that the outlook for a traditional altcoin season remains unclear.

According to him, past cycles have often seen altcoins gain momentum in the latter stages of a bull run, but current market conditions suggest a different path. Institutional players are now setting the tone, and their preference for Bitcoin, seen as both a hedge and a liquidity anchor, continues to suppress the altcoin rebound.

He added:

“As long as volatility remains increased and macro risk lingers, capital rotation into altcoins may remain limited.”

This shift became evident over the weekend, when Ethereum fell to $2,130, its lowest since May, while Solana, XRP, and other prominent altcoins saw drops of over 7%. ETH has recovered to $2260 as of press time.

Although Bitcoin briefly dipped below $100,000, it quickly recovered to $101,000. As a result, its dominance over the total crypto market has surged past 65%, the highest since early 2021.

A different altseason

Meanwhile, Young pointed out that there is still potential for a new type of altseason centered on strong Layer-1 networks like Ethereum, Solana, and XRP.

According to him, these platforms underpin vital infrastructure such as real-world asset tokenization, DePIN protocols, and stablecoin issuance, which are areas that are gaining traction among institutional investors.

He noted that interest in these high-upside altcoins could return if Bitcoin stabilizes above $100,000 and macro risks ease. In addition, launching spot ETFs for these L1s may also serve as a future catalyst that could renew interest in the digital assets.

Mentioned in this article

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The price of Bitcoin has shown signs of indecision and exhaustion over the past few days, with mostly sideways movement and a couple of unsustained breaks above $105,000. This lack of momentum comes as the crypto market continues to grapple with the impact of the ongoing unrest in the Middle East.

While the current choppiness of the Bitcoin price action suggests that the cryptocurrency’s bullish momentum is, at the time, insufficient for a break, recent on-chain data not only corroborates this inference but also offers insights into the potential next stop for the flagship cryptocurrency.

Advanced Sentiment Index Slips Beneath 50%

In a June 14 post on the X platform, on-chain analyst Axel Adler Jr. reported that Bitcoin’s bullish sentiment amongst investors may be starting to lose intensity. This on-chain observation is based on the Bitcoin Advanced Sentiment Index metric, which measures the balance between bullish and bearish positioning in the market to gauge overall trader sentiment.

As its name suggests, this on-chain indicator offers insight into the general sentiment in a particular cryptocurrency market. For instance, a reading above 60-70% typically signals strong bullish sentiment in the market and is usually seen before or during price rallies.

Meanwhile, when the metric’s value is around 50%, it usually indicates neutral market sentiment, meaning there is a level of indecision or balance between bears and bulls. This is usually recorded in a consolidation phase, which precedes definitive directional movement in the market.

On the other end of the spectrum, when the Bitcoin Advanced Sentiment Index reads below 40-50%, it implies growing fear or caution in the market, which could precede further loss in BTC’s value. However, it could also potentially indicate a bottom if the sentiment were to be overly pessimistic.

Source: @AxelAdlerJr on X

In the post on X, Adler Jr. reported a drop in the Sentiment Index below the neutral 50% threshold to about 46%, which falls within the bearish territory. According to the analyst, Bitcoin’s Sentiment Index peaked above 80% early in the month of June but slowly started to decline after hitting the high.

As BTC recently rallied to $105,000 from $103,000, other important metrics such as the open interest also indicated very little investor support, further demonstrating weak bullish presence.

What’s Next For Bitcoin Price?

Adler Jr. opined that the indecisiveness currently being observed in the market might continue until something important — like the Sentiment Index — changes. For the uptrend to resume, the analyst explained that the Index has to rebound above 60-65%, which would only occur if there are simultaneous increases in net taker volume and open interest.

If this does not happen, the Bitcoin price risks testing the next support level, around $102,000 — $103,000. For this reason, caution when dealing in the market is essential, as the next support’s strength is still highly probabilistic.

As of this writing, Bitcoin is valued at $105,419, reflecting no significant price movement in the past 24 hours.

The price of Bitcoin on the daily timeframe | Source: BTCUSDT chart on TradingView

Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView

Editorial Process for bitcoinist is centered on delivering thoroughly researched, accurate, and unbiased content. We uphold strict sourcing standards, and each page undergoes diligent review by our team of top technology experts and seasoned editors. This process ensures the integrity, relevance, and value of our content for our readers.