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Bitcoin is up 9% since last Sunday, showing renewed strength as it approaches key resistance levels. After weeks of choppy price action and uncertainty, momentum is building across the crypto market. Traders and analysts alike are closely watching Bitcoin’s next move, with many calling for a potential breakout above the all-time high. With bullish sentiment rising and liquidity returning to risk assets, a decisive move could be imminent.

Supporting this outlook is a key on-chain signal highlighted by top analyst Darkfost. According to his insights, the short-term holder (STH) realized price ratio recently dropped below 0.995—a level that historically signals STHs are capitulating and selling at a loss. This behavior typically emerges during local bottoms, often presenting high-reward opportunities for long-term investors. It’s these moments of weakness that frequently precede strong recoveries and upward trends.

As Bitcoin pushes higher, the broader market remains optimistic that a confirmed breakout could shift momentum across the altcoin sector as well. For now, the focus remains on whether BTC can sustain current gains and break through resistance decisively. With strong fundamentals, growing institutional interest, and supportive on-chain data, Bitcoin’s next major move may be just around the corner.

Bitcoin Faces Critical Test As Market Awaits Next Move

Bitcoin is once again at a crucial juncture, hovering between its all-time high of $112,000 and key support at $105,000. Bulls are working to break above resistance and spark the next leg higher, while bears aim to drag the price below support and shift momentum in their favor. This standoff has created a volatile and indecisive environment, with price swinging between these levels for days. So far, neither side has been able to establish dominance, leaving traders on edge as the next major move begins to take shape.

Adding to the broader market optimism is the US stock market, which has just reached a new all-time high. Many analysts see this as a leading indicator for crypto, suggesting that Bitcoin and altcoins could be next in line to follow the rally. Liquidity conditions are improving, and risk appetite is returning, setting the stage for a potential breakout if Bitcoin can overcome resistance.

Darkfost recently shared a key on-chain signal supporting this outlook. According to his analysis, the Short-Term Holder Spent Output Profit Ratio (STH SOPR) has dropped below 0.995. Historically, this level indicates that short-term holders are capitulating and selling at a loss—a behavior often seen at local bottoms. When STHs exit in fear, it tends to clear the way for stronger hands to accumulate, laying the groundwork for the next leg up.

With bullish macro signals and on-chain metrics aligning, Bitcoin’s current range could soon give way to a major move. Whether that breakout happens above $112K—or a breakdown below $105K—will determine the tone of the next chapter in this market cycle. For now, all eyes remain on Bitcoin.

BTC Price Action: Testing Key Resistance

Bitcoin is currently trading at $107,321, consolidating just below the critical $109,300 resistance level. This zone has acted as a ceiling for over a month, with multiple failed attempts to break above. The latest recovery from the $103,600 support has been strong, with BTC reclaiming all key moving averages—50 SMA ($105,774), 100 SMA ($105,866), and staying well above the 200 SMA ($97,046)—showing a shift in short-term momentum toward the bulls.

The 12-hour chart displays a clear pattern of higher lows, indicating that buyers are stepping in with increasing confidence. However, the lack of volume during this latest push suggests hesitation, as traders await a confirmed breakout before fully committing. For Bitcoin to gain significant upside traction, it must close multiple candles above $109,300, turning resistance into support.

If bulls fail to break above resistance soon, the $105,000–$103,600 zone becomes the critical area to hold. A breakdown below this range could open the door for a deeper retracement toward the 200 SMA around $97,000. Until then, BTC remains in a neutral-to-bullish posture, with the market watching closely for a decisive move that could shape the next leg of this cycle.

Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView

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The price of Bitcoin has been stuck within the $81,000 to $86,000 consolidation range over the past week, showing a high level of indecisiveness between the bulls and bears. While most on-chain indicators are painting a bearish image for the premier cryptocurrency, the latest piece of data suggests that the bull run might not be over just yet.

BTC Investors Not Yet In Full Panic Mode: Blockchain Firm

In a new post on the X platform, blockchain analytics firm Glassnode revealed that a specific class of Bitcoin holders known as the “short-term holders” (STH) are facing increasing market pressure. This on-chain observation is based on the value of unrealized losses of this investor cohort.

For clarity, an unrealized loss refers to one that is still on paper, as the investor is still holding on to and selling an asset (with a declining value). A loss only becomes “real” or “realized” when the holder sells the asset at a value lower than the purchase price.

According to Glassnode, the unrealized losses of Bitcoin investors have been climbing in recent weeks, specifically pushing the short-term holders toward a significant +2σ threshold. The STH Relative Unrealized Loss metric hitting the extreme +2σ threshold has been associated with increased selling pressure in the past.

However, Glassnode noted that the size of the STH losses still falls within the range typically observed in a bull market. Specifically, the magnitude of these losses pales in comparison to the market-wide sell-off witnessed in 2021, suggesting that the bull cycle might not be done yet.

Source: @glassnode on X

To further illustrate this, Glassnode revealed that the rolling 30-day realized loss for Bitcoin’s short-term holders has now surpassed $7 billion, representing the largest sustained loss event in the current cycle. Despite the significance of this figure, it is still far less severe than the capitulation events seen at the start of past bear markets.

For instance, Bitcoin’s realized losses rose to as high as $19.8 billion and $20.7 billion during the major price corrections in May 2021 and 2022, respectively. Considering that the realized losses are still well below past capitulation events, there is a chance that the market has not yet reached a full-scale panic mode.

Bitcoin Price At A Glance

As of this writing, the price of Bitcoin stands at around $84,300, reflecting a 0.3% increase in the past 24 hours. According to data from CoinGecko, the flagship cryptocurrency is down by merely 0.6% in the past seven days, emphasizing the choppy state of the market.

The price of BTC on the daily timeframe | Source: BTCUSDT chart on TradingView

Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView

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While there is no surefire way to put these doubts away, on-chain data can provide relevant insights into what is to come. The latest on-chain data suggests the highlighted level below is the one to watch before investors return to the market.

Level To Watch Before ‘Buying The Dip’

In a recent post on the X platform, crypto analyst Maartunn shared that it might not be technically secure to reenter the Bitcoin market at the current price. This analysis is based on the movement of the Bitcoin price relative to the current value of the short-term holders’ (STH) average cost basis.

The STH average cost basis metric estimates the average price at which short-term holders (investors who have owned Bitcoin for less than 155 days) acquired their coins. It represents a psychological level for BTC investors and could act as a reference point for price analysis, especially during bull cycles.

Bitcoin usually trades above the short-term holders’ average cost basis during bull markets, signaling substantial buying pressure and optimistic sentiment from short-term investors. On the flip side, when the price of BTC falls beneath this cost basis — as seen in the ongoing correction, it implies that short-term investors are at a loss, which could lead to a sell-off and precipitate significant bearish pressure.

According to data from CryptoQuant, the Bitcoin price is currently 6% below the short-term holders’ average cost basis at $90,950. With the flagship cryptocurrency beneath the realized price of short-term holders, the odds are that BTC price could face further selling pressure as the investor cohort looks to minimize their loss.

Using this logic, Maartunn noted that investors might want to wait till the price of Bitcoin climbs above the STH average cost price before reentering the market. Interestingly, the short-term investors appear to still be loading their bags. Crypto analyst Ali Martinez revealed in a post on X that short-term holders have purchased more than 35,000 BTC in the past 4 days.

Bitcoin Price At A Glance 

As of this writing, the price of BTC sits just below the $86,000 mark, reflecting an over 2% jump in the past 24 hours.

Bitcoin’s short-term price direction remains uncertain as the market struggles to see what it will next move. Analysts and investors are split, with some seeking a breakout to a new all-time high, while others expect new sales pressures at low prices. Prices have been consolidated in a narrow range for the past 12 days, facing resistance below $100,000, above the $94,000 demand level.

Related readings

Cryptoquant’s key data reveals that the closest support zone to BTC is formed between $91,000 and $95,000. This range is enhanced by two key technical indicators: the 111-day Simple Moving Average (SMA 111D) currently at $95,000, and the Short-Term Holder (STH) delivers a price of $91,000. These levels suggest that BTC is trading beyond historically important support areas where short-term holders have achieved profits or losses.

The long-term structure remains bullish, but investors are becoming impatient as BTC cannot regain its main resistance levels. If Bitcoin can push more than $100,000 in the coming days, analysts are hoping to meet up for price discovery. However, losing support from around $94,000 to $95,000 could lead to an increase in sales pressure and a deeper correction to a low demand zone.

Bitcoin prepares for a critical move

Bitcoin’s recent integration phase has fueled speculation about potential breakouts. Many analysts suggest that the market is witnessing calm before the storm. The short-term direction remains uncertain, but the long-term bullish structure remains intact, with many expecting BTC to move quickly towards a new history high.

Crypto analyst Axel Adler shares X’s critical encrypted data, highlighting that Bitcoin’s closest support zone forms around $91,000-95,000. This range is important as it delivers a 111-day simple moving average (SMA 111D) and $95,000, with short-term holders (STHs) achieving prices at $91,000. These levels represent areas where short-term holders have historically achieved profits or losses, and are important to maintain bullish momentum.

On the resistance side, Adler points out that Bitcoin is facing a key supply zone between $98,000 and $101,000. This area is defined by the owner’s total exit price, with a holding period of $100,800 for a week to one month and a holding period of $98,200 for a one month to three months.

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As BTC continues to trade within this narrow range, investors are closely watching these levels for a critical breakout. Pushing over $101K can cause rallies in price discovery. Losing support for $91,000 can lead to even more downsides.

The BTC Bulls face a big test

Bitcoin is trading at $95,600 after nearly two weeks of lateral movement within a narrow range, fluctuating at less than 4% in either direction. This long-term integration awaits a critical move in either direction, giving traders the advantage.

To maintain a bullish structure, the BTC must maintain a level of $95,000. This price range coincides with technical support, and the breaks below that could indicate strong sales pressure. The Bulls are facing important tests at this stage. Because they have to defend this support and start pushing above the main levels of resistance.

To see a breakout, Bitcoin will need to regain its $98,000 mark and ultimately the psychologically significant $100,000 level. Successful moves beyond these levels will challenge the highest ever highs and provide the momentum needed to re-enter price discovery. However, if you can’t hold $95,000, then BTC could potentially test a support zone close to $91,000, potentially close to $91K.

Related readings

As Bitcoin consolidates, traders are cautious and monitor the volume spikes and increased purchase pressure to see the next price movement. The next few days will be important in determining whether BTC will resume uptrends or face further revisions.

Dall-E special images, TradingView chart