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Bitcoin (BTC) has remained range-bound between $100,000 and $110,000 since May, offering few clues about its next directional move. While this sideways price action may be frustrating traders, on-chain indicators suggest there may be more happening beneath the surface.

Long-Term Holders Are Selling Bitcoin

According to a recent CryptoQuant Quicktake post by contributor Yonsei_dent, long-term holders (LTHs) – those who have held BTC for more than six months – have been consistently selling their coins. Two key indicators, the Spent Output Age Bands (SOAB) and Binary Coin Days Destroyed (CDD), support this observation.

For the uninitiated, SOAB is an on-chain metric that tracks the age of Bitcoin being spent, categorizing coins based on how long they were held before being moved. It helps identify whether short-term or long-term holders are currently active, revealing shifts in investor behavior and broader market trends.

Similarly, Binary CDD is a simplified on-chain metric that shows whether LTHs spent any coins on a given day – represented as a binary “yes” (1) or “no” (0). Unlike traditional CDD, it focuses solely on the presence or absence of LTH activity, making it easier to spot trend changes in long-term holder behavior.

What’s notable, according to Yonsei_dent, is that despite this steady selling by LTHs, BTC’s price has not broken down. The fact that the market is absorbing this selling pressure suggests that new demand – possibly from fresh buyers – is stepping in. The analyst added:

For a bullish trend to sustain, this kind of healthy rotation (from strong hands to new buyers) is essential. In that context, LTH spending isn’t a warning sign – it’s actually a constructive signal.

In addition, there’s rising activity from holders who acquired BTC one to three years ago. This likely reflects profit-taking by those who bought during previous cycle lows.

That said, such selling does not necessarily indicate weakness. On the contrary, it suggests a transition in market leadership from older to newer holders – a dynamic typically seen in the mid-to-late stages of a bull market.

In conclusion, Yonsei_dent believes that the crypto market is likely in a phase of “quiet redistribution,” where LTH selling is being matched by sufficient buy-side demand – potentially setting the stage for the next strong move.

Not All Analysts Are Optimistic

Despite the constructive signals from SOAB and Binary CDD, not all analysts are convinced of a near-term breakout. For example, the Bitcoin MVRV ratio is showing signs of bull market fatigue.

Likewise, even after the recent price rebound, Bitcoin network activity remains significantly muted – raising concerns about a broader lack of user engagement. At press time, BTC trades at $107,781, down 0.1% over the past 24 hours.

Featured Image from Unsplash.com, charts from CryptoQuant and TradingView.com

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BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes thinks downside continuation is possible for Bitcoin (BTC) even after witnessing a 24% correction from its all-time high.

In a new post on the social media platform X, the crypto veteran outlines a series of events that he thinks would pressure the Federal Reserve to pivot and end its restrictive monetary policies.

Hayes sees Bitcoin capitulating alongside the US stock market but says that those events will not be enough to trigger a Fed intervention. According to the Maelstrom CIO, the collapse of traditional financial (TradFi) firms in the US would force the Fed to end quantitative tightening (QT) – a move that would drive other major central banks to follow suit.

“BTC likely bottoms around $70,000. A 36% correction from the $110,000 all-time high is very normal for a bull market.

Then we need stonks, SPX (S&P 500) and NDX (Nasdaq Index) to enter free fall. Then we need TradFi muppet to go under.

THEN we get the Fed, PBOC (People’s Bank of China), ECB (European Central Bank) and BOJ (Bank of Japan) all easing to make their country great again.

THEN you load up the truck.

Traders will try to buy the dip, if you are more risk averse wait for the central banks to ease then deploy more capital. You might not catch the bottom but you also won’t have to mentally suffer through a long period of sideways and potentially unrealized losses.”

According to Hayes, Bitcoin will likely witness wild price swings once it gets close to his downside price target due to the massive number of outstanding derivative contracts, or open interest (OI), at the low $70,000 price area.

“There are a lot of options OI struck at $70,000-$75,000, if we get into that range it will be violent.”

At time of writing, Bitcoin is trading for $82,780, up nearly 5% in the past day.

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February 26th Bitfinex alpha | Bitcoin reduces heat – turn on new turns for red alarms or stepping stones?

Last week, Bitcoin was trapped within familiar transactional ranges. The market’s growth momentum does not appear to show signs of prosperity.

On Friday, February 21st, the market suddenly shook violently about S&P 500 options sellers, along with news about the Buybit Hacking Hack. weekend.

Not only Bitcoin, but the entire crypto market is in the adjustment phase after the breakthrough at the end of 2024. Bitcoin (-5.9%), Ethereum (-16.9%) and Solana (-33.1%) will fall free after a significant increase in February. November and December last year. Most notably, the MemeCoins group, which once flew in December, also flew to 37.4%.

This decline is exacerbated as Bitcoin is increasingly sticky to traditional assets due to the instability of global financial markets. The fact that the S&P 500 missed bookings at a milestone of 6,000 made investors psychologically shy and reduced their level of participation in dangerous assets.

Bitcoin, SPX and major electronic assets performance in 2025
(Source: Bitfinex, S&P)

Demand from large organizations also declined significantly. Cash flow to Bitcoin ETFs, which reached 18,000 BTC per day in November 2024, has been reversed to cash flow. On February 20th, a maximum of USD 360 million was withdrawn from the Bitcoin ETF.

Not only does it turn cars, but it also uses trading activities have also been significantly reduced. These indications indicate that the market is entering a phase of shrinking scale.

After nearly 90 days of passing, Bitcoin is still in the middle of a period of time where there is enough powerful catalyst waiting to explode. The next direction for Bitcoin is likely to depend on macroeconomic factors and may be critical. On the other hand, the US economy is not very positive. Confidences among consumers are declining, but expectations of inflation can be ruptured, while the Federal Reserve’s price management efforts (FEDs). According to the latest research from the University of Michigan, consumer psychology has plummeted, reaching its lowest level in over a year. Americans are preparing for higher inflation as they expect to increase inflation next year to 4.3% compared to 3.3% the previous month. This change shows more careful psychology, which can slow down spending and economic activity. Furthermore, the White House proposal for import taxes has increased inflationary pressures and partially reversed the process of cooling inflation over the past two years.

University of Michigan – Consumer’s 1 year expectation of inflation

Meanwhile, the housing market slowly saw a decline in new home constructions by 8.4% in January. The rate is still high.

Construction of a new residential area (source: US Census Bureau)

Contractors are struggling to launch new projects due to increased costs, draining their construction profits. Limited new supply will raise housing prices and make it even more difficult for the Federal Reserve to target inflation at 2%. Without a big policy that will help remove supply barriers, the dream of owning a home at a comfortable price will remain far away in the near future.

The cryptocurrency market is in a struggle between motivations for price rises and great risks. Strategy has announced plans to issue US$2 billion worth of converted bonds, buy more Bitcoin and serve business purposes.

In other developments, the US Senate formally approved Howard Lutnick as Minister of Trade. This will make important changes to the management of your digital assets. A loyal supporter of Bitcoin and investing in Tether, Lutnick is expected to promote more open policies, helping Crypto move further into mainstream financial flows . Furthermore, Latnic’s trade position, particularly the support of former President Trump’s tariff policy, will have an impact on financial markets.

However, not all news is positive. BYBIT is suffering from a US$1.5 billion hack. This is one of the most serious security cases in the history of code. The transaction floor confirms that solvency is still possible, but the incident still raises concerns about an increase in security holes and an increase in sophistication in cyberattacks.

We pray for “Green” trading week!
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