Bitcoin’s recent rally pushed the cryptocurrency to retest the $122,000 level before facing a pullback. At the time of writing, BTC is trading at approximately $119,053, marking a short-term correction after reclaiming significant highs earlier in the week.

The move comes as traders and analysts watch closely for signs of market strength or weakness at current price levels. One metric drawing attention is Binance’s share of global trading volume.

According to CryptoQuant analyst BorisVest, the exchange’s dominance in trading activity provides valuable context for interpreting Bitcoin’s performance at all-time highs (ATHs).

By comparing volume distribution across exchanges during previous ATH periods, the analysis seeks to determine whether the broader market is participating in the rally or if activity is concentrated on a single platform.

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Bitcoin Exchange Volume Concentration and Market Signals

BorisVest’s review found that during the first ATH in 2024, global market volumes were elevated, and Binance’s trading activity was more than double that of all other exchanges combined.

When Bitcoin retested its ATH later that year, overall market volumes increased across multiple platforms, yet Binance maintained its lead in total trading share.

In contrast, when Bitcoin set a new record in mid-2025, total market volume did not show a significant increase compared to previous rallies. While Binance still recorded nearly twice the trading volume of other exchanges combined, the absence of a wider market volume expansion raised concerns.

The analyst noted that historically, ATHs supported by broad volume growth tend to indicate stronger market conviction. A lack of participation from other exchanges could signal potential challenges in sustaining higher prices over the coming months.

On-Chain Patterns Suggest Gradual Market Progress

In a separate assessment, CryptoQuant analyst Avocado onchain examined Binary Coin Days Destroyed (CDD), a metric tracking the movement of long-dormant coins. The indicator recently turned lower after a brief rise, with Bitcoin’s price trading within a sideways range.

Historically, increases in Binary CDD have been linked to selling pressure from long-term holders, often leading to corrections. However, current market conditions, shaped by changes in custody solutions, over-the-counter trading activity, and institutional investment strategies, make interpreting CDD spikes more complex.

Avocado onchain highlighted that in recent cycles, Binary CDD rises have been followed by either prolonged sideways trading or moderate corrections.

The current data supports what the analyst describes as a “stair-step” rally, where the market advances gradually while cooling short-term speculative activity. This pattern, if sustained, could prevent rapid depletion of buying momentum and allow for more stable long-term growth.

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Other on-chain data suggests that selling from long-term holders remains subdued, indicating limited pressure to exit positions at current price levels.

This aligns with the view that while near-term movements may be range-bound, the broader trend still holds the potential for future upside, contingent on broader participation and sustained investor demand.

Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView

Fundstrat co-founder and BitMine chairman Tom Lee said Bitcoin may still be able to reach $250,000 in 2025, despite other crypto analysts cautiously pulling back targets.

“I think Bitcoin should really build upon this 120 before the end of the year. 200,000, maybe, 250,” Lee told Natalie Brunell on the Coin Stories podcast on Tuesday. 

Last November, Lee gave a 12-month deadline for Bitcoin (BTC) to reach $250,000.

Not all analysts are as bullish as Tom Lee

While analysts like BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes and Unchained’s market research director Joe Burnett have recently echoed a similar price target for the year, others have adopted a more cautious outlook with less than five months left until the end of 2025. 

In May, Bernstein and Standard Chartered set their year-end Bitcoin targets at $200,000, while 10x Research’s Markus Thielen recently projected a more modest $160,000.

Lee said there is a probability that the four-year cycle has ended for Bitcoin due to the mounting institutional interest in Bitcoin, an increasingly shared belief among executives in the industry.

However, crypto analyst Rekt Capital recently said that if the Bitcoin cycle follows the 2020 pattern, the market will likely peak in October, which is 550 days after the Bitcoin halving in April 2024.

Bitwise chief investment officer Matt Hougan recently called the four-year halving “dead”  and predicted that 2026 will be an “up year” for Bitcoin.

Crypto market sentiment shifts to “neutral”

Lee’s optimistic target comes as Bitcoin has seen a volatile week. 

After reaching a new all-time high of $123,100 on July 14, BTC pulled back to $112,044 over the weekend and is trading around $113,000 at the time of publication, according to Nansen.

There’s also been a recent tumble in crypto market sentiment. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index, which measures overall market sentiment, shifted from a “Greed” score of 60 on Tuesday to a “Neutral” score of 54 on Wednesday.

Related: Bitcoin analysis warns BTC price ‘going lower’ first as $113K slips

However, Lee said skepticism is a positive in any financial market. “It’s a sign that there is still price discovery underway. Because if people were all bullish, in the public realm, when everyone is bullish, then it’s probably in the price,” he said.

“When there is plenty of skepticism and reasons to be skeptical, it allows markets to have positive surprise.”

Lee forecasts that Bitcoin should reach $1 million “over time.”

Magazine: Ether could ‘rip like 2021’ as SOL traders brace for 10% drop: Trade Secrets

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

]]> https://earlybirdsinvest.com/bitcoin-may-still-have-steam-for-250k-this-year-fundstrats-tom-lee/feed/ 0 51735 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/is-bitcoin-losing-steam-analysts-warn-of-fragile-market-support/ https://earlybirdsinvest.com/is-bitcoin-losing-steam-analysts-warn-of-fragile-market-support/#respond Tue, 05 Aug 2025 04:03:18 +0000 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/is-bitcoin-losing-steam-analysts-warn-of-fragile-market-support/

Bitcoin (BTC) has experienced a steady price decline over the past week, falling by approximately 3.7% as trading activity shows signs of a possible sell-off or profit-taking phase.

After peaking above $123,000 earlier last month, the leading cryptocurrency has been trading within the $113,000 to $114,000 range in the past day. At the time of writing, BTC is valued at $114,420, reflecting uncertainty in market momentum.

Market analysts point to weakening liquidity and inconsistent institutional demand as key factors contributing to the price drop. A recent analysis shared by Arab Chain, a contributor to CryptoQuant’s QuickTake platform, highlights several on-chain dynamics that have limited Bitcoin’s ability to maintain price stability despite reduced available supply.

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Liquidity Constraints and Market Fragility

According to Arab Chain’s analysis, a sharp collapse in the liquidity inventory ratio began in mid-July, falling to levels representing just over three months of available supply on major trading platforms.

This metric tracks how much Bitcoin is accessible for sale relative to the pace of market activity. Normally, reduced supply would lead to upward price pressure. However, Arab Chain notes that insufficient new demand left the market vulnerable, resulting in the opposite effect.

“When liquidity is thin and there is no consistent buying activity from large investors or ETFs, even small sell orders can lead to significant price drops,” Arab Chain explained. This behavior mirrors “thin market” conditions, where limited order book depth magnifies volatility and makes prices more susceptible to sudden downward moves.

The analysis suggests that market fragility could persist unless fresh demand enters the market. Historically, periods of constrained liquidity combined with a lack of large-scale buyers have led to prolonged corrections in Bitcoin’s price trajectory.

ETF Demand Volatility and Weak Accumulation

Another factor influencing the recent decline has been the erratic demand for Bitcoin-linked exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Arab Chain observed sharp fluctuations in ETF inflows, with rapid surges followed by strong outflows, leaving no consistent institutional support to stabilize prices.

This inconsistent participation from ETFs, which have become a major driver of Bitcoin demand since their approval, contributed to weaker price resilience during sell-offs.

Additionally, on-chain data showed that “smart portfolios,” or high-value addresses typically associated with strategic accumulation, exhibited only modest buying activity during the recent downturn.

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Although accumulation signals long-term confidence, its slow and limited pace failed to counterbalance selling pressure in real time. This lack of immediate demand further weakened market support.

Additionally, while investors closely monitor liquidity conditions, ETF flows, and long-term holder activity for signs of a potential rebound. Analysts suggest that sustained institutional buying or an uptick in accumulation from large addresses could help restore stability.

Until then, Bitcoin may remain in a vulnerable position, with its price movement largely dependent on shifts in demand and available liquidity.

Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView

Solana meme coin launchpad Pump.fun has lost a significant chunk of its market share to LetsBonk.fun. This comes just ahead of the former’s token generation event, in which the launchpad could raise up to $4 billion. 

Solana’s Pump.fun Loses Dominance To LetsBonk.fun

In an X post, Solana News revealed that Pump.fun has hit a new all-time low with just a 36% market share, while LetsBonk.fun’s market share has surged to 54%. Jup data also confirms this development. At press time, LetsBonk boasts a market share of 48.90%, with a 24-hour trading volume of $539 million. On the other hand, Pump boasts a market share of 39.80%, with a 24-hour trading volume of $438 million. 

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This development comes amid Pump.fun’s proposed public token sale, scheduled for July 12. Well-known Solana influencer Lynk has described this token sale as the “final scam” for the meme coin launchpad. The platform has been under heavy criticism for the amount of money that it has extracted from the Solana ecosystem, without incentivizing community members in any way. 

Some community members had expected Pump.fun to airdrop its token to rewards platform users instead of conducting a public token sale. Lynk shared details of the public sale, with the meme coin launchpad planning to sell the ‘PUMP’ tokens $0.004 each. The token boasts a total supply of 1 trillion, meaning a fully diluted value (FDV) of $4 billion. 

However, Pump.fun plans to raise around $600 million from the public token sale, as only $150 billion tokens will be available. The meme coin launchpad is expected to also conduct a private sale in order to complete its $1 billion capital raise effort, as earlier reported. 

LetsBonk.fun To Keep Dominating Pump.fun

In an X post, crypto influencer Unipcs, also known as ‘Bonk Guy,’ opined that Pump.fun isn’t done, but that LetsBonk.fun will likely continue to be the industry leader. He predicts that this will be the case for the foreseeable future. He outlined several reasons why he believes this would be the case. 

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Firstly, he stated that LetsBonk’s pro-creator, pro-people, pro-Solana ecosystem alignment is a massive strength over Pump.fun. Secondly, Bonk Guy remarked that the strong culture of support within the BONK ecosystem is incredibly hard to replicate by any other platform in a short period. 

Furthermore, the crypto influencer remarked that Pump.fun had a lot of momentum as a tokenless protocol, especially with a token generation event (TGE). However, LetsBonk.fun was able to flip the platform during this period. As such, Bonk Guy believes that it is hard to see Pump.fun sustainably recover the kind of market share it once had after the TGE event. 

He also suggested that a “non-negligible amount of activity on Pump.fun is inorganic with a lot os users farming on the platform, hoping that there was going to be an airdrop. As such, the influencer believes that the traffic will dry up once the TGE is over.

Featured image from Adobe Stock, chart from Tradingview.com

Steam has added Gotchi Guardians—a multiplayer tower defense game developed by Pixelcraft Studios—to its store with a full release scheduled for the third quarter of 2025.

Set in the same universe as Aavegotchi, Gotchi Guardians introduces web3 elements such as NFT-based cosmetic items and support for crypto payments, whilst aiming to stay within Steam’s guidelines around blockchain content. Pixelcraft Studios has stated that gameplay mechanics are not affected by any blockchain-linked purchases or assets.

The game has previously been available in browser-based form and has undergone several rounds of balancing and feature updates with a full PC release expected later this year.

Key Insights

• Gotchi Guardians is now listed on Steam with a full launch expected in Q3 2025
• The game is developed by Pixelcraft Studios, the team behind the Aavegotchi ecosystem
• Optional blockchain features include cosmetic NFT skins and in-game payments via $GHST
• Gameplay combines multiplayer tower defence and roguelite mechanics

What is Gotchi Guardians?

Gotchi Guardians is a multiplayer tower defense game that supports up to eight players per match. Each player must survive waves of non-player enemies, known in-game as “Licks,” whilst also competing with others in the same session.

The game incorporates roguelite design elements, such as randomised map hazards, variable match conditions, and periodic boss waves. Players choose from six different characters, each offering a unique ability that influences strategy—for example, generating in-game currency when damaged or enhancing tower performance.

In addition to enemy waves, matches include mechanics that allow indirect interference between players, creating both cooperative and competitive dynamics.

What can we expect from the Steam release?

The full release on Steam will include cross-platform multiplayer and seasonal leaderboards. Pixelcraft Studios has confirmed long-term plans for additional content, including new playable characters (Guardians), maps, and limited-time events.

Whilst the game does not require interaction with blockchain technology, players who own Aavegotchi NFTs will be able to use them as in-game cosmetic overlays. The platform also supports purchases using $GHST, the Aavegotchi ecosystem’s token, processed through the Base blockchain. These purchases are optional and do not provide gameplay advantages.

The game director, Jason Slama, previously worked on titles at CD Projekt Red, including GWENT and The Witcher. His involvement brings experience in designing competitive strategy games, which is reflected in Gotchi Guardians’ structure.

Pixelcraft’s development roadmap indicates ongoing support following launch, including balance adjustments, expanded gameplay features, and community-driven events. The studio has already tested many of these systems during the browser-based phase of the game earlier this year.

Gunzilla Games has shared a detailed update on the state of its GUNZ blockchain ecosystem, coinciding with preparations for the upcoming Steam release of its multiplayer shooter—Off The Grid. The studio has initiated a wave-based migration of players to mainnet, marking a significant shift toward on-chain asset ownership within its gaming platform.

This update forms part of a new monthly reporting initiative by Gunzilla, aimed at providing clearer insight into development milestones, ecosystem activity, and regulatory progress. According to the studio, June marked the start of a “new phase of growth” for the GUNZ ecosystem following months of limited public communication.

Alongside the blockchain developments, Off The Grid has received several gameplay updates and is confirmed to be launching on Steam in July. Due to Steam’s current policies on blockchain integration, the PC version will use testnet rather than mainnet features for the time being.

Gunzilla Games is also finalising regulatory licensing and expanding the reach of its token through a new partnership, all of which will feed into the studio’s broader strategy to establish a compliant, scalable blockchain gaming platform.

Key Insights

• 21,000 players have been migrated from testnet to mainnet, with full migration planned
• Asset activity on mainnet includes over 413,000 HEX decodings and $12.9 million in $GUN volume
• Validator NFTs are now live, with the majority of 10,000 nodes operational
• VASP licensing is nearing completion, which will enable broader access to mainnet features
• Off The Grid launches on Steam in July 2025, using testnet to comply with platform policies
• OTG Gameplay updates include new arenas, a new weapon, and changes to weapon handling
• A web3-focused roadmap and further announcements are expected starting July 4

What’s happening in the GUNZ ecosystem?

Gunzilla Games has begun migrating players to the GUNZ mainnet, allowing them to retain and manage their in-game assets on-chain. The first 21,000 users have already been transitioned, with plans to eventually move all 17.3 million wallets. This migration is being carried out gradually to meet compliance standards and monitor any technical issues. With this shift, users gain permanent ownership of their items, including weapons, skins, and earned loot. In terms of mainnet activity, the studio reports 413,000 in-game asset decodings and a total marketplace volume of $12.9 million in $GUN tokens so far.

The company is also close to securing its Virtual Asset Service Provider (VASP) licence. Once granted, this will allow Gunzilla to open up mainnet access more broadly to its player base.

Additionally, Validator NFTs—which function as nodes in the ecosystem—have also gone live with most of the 10,000 available nodes already active and producing in-game assets. More information about how validator rewards will scale is expected in future reports.

In terms of infrastructure expansion, Gunzilla has entered a partnership with decentralised exchange Blackhole to introduce $GUN token pools on Avalanche, though the launch date has not yet been announced.

What’s new in Off The Grid?

Off The Grid—Gunzilla’s extraction-based multiplayer shooter—is scheduled to arrive on Steam in July. However, because of Steam’s policy on blockchain content, the PC version will operate using the testnet version of GUNZ. Blockchain features will remain active on console platforms, where they have already been integrated on PlayStation 5 and Xbox Series X/S.

In the June development report, Gunzilla also outlined several gameplay changes including a new 20-player free-for-all deathmatch mode and four additional arenas: Marshlands, Midtown Harbour, Stork City, and Ocio. A new melee weapon, the Cyberlancer, has also been added.

The update also introduced gyro aiming support for PC and PS5 users, along with the option to toggle between first- and third-person scopes for certain optics.

Finally, all weapon classes have undergone changes to recoil and spread behaviour, aiming to rebalance time-to-kill values and ammo dynamics. The Kestrel sniper rifle now features new attachments and improved fire rate, whilst other weapons such as the AZV100 have been adjusted for balance.

What’s next for the Gunzilla Games?

Gunzilla plans to publish a new web3-focused development roadmap in the coming weeks, detailing upcoming features and updates across the GUNZ ecosystem. The studio also indicated that additional announcements and feature reveals will begin from 4 July onwards.

Player assets earned during testnet participation are expected to carry over once full migration to mainnet is complete.

In the meantime, Off The Grid remains available in early access for PlayStation 5, Xbox Series X/S, and PC devices.

A crypto strategist who nailed the Bitcoin top in January is warning that BTC’s recovery rally may witness an abrupt end.

Pseudonymous analyst Bluntz tells his 318,200 followers on the social media platform X that Bitcoin appears to be forming a bearish divergence on the daily chart.

The bearish reversal signal suggests that bullish momentum is waning even though an asset’s price is moving higher or sideways.

Says Bluntz,

“There’s a daily BTC bear div brewing here if it closes red by [today].

It’s unfortunate that it has appeared before fresh all-time highs, but it’s the first one since last year.

Be careful with longs in my opinion.”

At time of writing, Bitcoin is trading for $105,546.

Turning to gold, the analyst believes that the precious metal is poised to ignite a rally to a new all-time high after completing an ABC corrective wave.

Bluntz practices the Elliott Wave theory, which states a bullish asset will continue its uptrend after an ABC correction.

The trader shares a chart suggesting that gold will rally to a new record high of $3,600.

“Gold gathering steam for the next leg up here.”

At time of writing, gold is worth $3,221.

As for the memecoin Floki (FLOKI), Bluntz predicts that the altcoin would dip to around $0.00008 before exploding to $0.00018.

“Looks like FLOKI is one of the few memes with a clear impulse five-wave rise from the lows on the daily, indicating the low is in.

Would be very interested in bidding pullbacks around the 50 fib if given.

Have always had a soft spot for this one.”

At time of writing, FLOKI is worth $0.000098.

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