Following another rejection from the $120,000 region on July 21, Bitcoin (BTC) is now holding steady around the $115,000 level. However, realized price data suggests that BTC’s surface-level calm may be nearing its end.

Old Bitcoin Whales Stop Realizing Gains

According to a CryptoQuant Quicktake post by contributor Kripto Mevsimi, Bitcoin whale behavior indicates that the asset may be walking a tightrope. While “old whales” have stopped realizing profits, newer whales remain slightly in the green – though only marginally.

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Here, old whales refer to large BTC holders who have held the digital asset for more than a year. New whales – including institutional players – are those who entered the market within the past year.

Kripto Mevsimi notes that the current balance between old capital and newly invested capital may not hold much longer. A decisive break in either direction could push BTC into a new price range.

The chart below illustrates the rising realized cap of old whales from 2022 to 2024, confirming that this cohort steadily realized profits during that period. Notably, this quiet distribution phase coincided with mid-cycle market conditions.

However, since early 2025, the realized cap for old whales has flattened – signalling a pause in profit-taking. Their average cost basis of $39,400 puts them well in profit, suggesting they are likely waiting for higher prices before re-entering the market.

In contrast, the average cost basis for newer whales is approximately $105,300 – a level that now serves as their psychological breakeven. As long as BTC remains above this threshold, these newer investors are unlikely to sell in large numbers.

That said, a drop below this critical level could trigger risk-off behavior among new whales. Kripto Mevsimi suggests that such a move could escalate current conditions from moderate profit-taking to panic selling, potentially triggering a wave of leverage unwinds.

Keep An Eye On Realized Price

It’s worth noting that recent activity has been minimal across both BTC investor cohorts – old whales and new whales alike. As the CryptoQuant analyst puts it:

Old whales are idle. New whales are exposed. Neither is pressing the market – yet. But once the range breaks, the reaction could be sharp.

In short, Bitcoin holders should closely monitor realized price levels. If BTC maintains a price above $105,000, newer capital is likely to remain stable. However, a drop below that could weaken the floor and invite downside pressure.

Related Reading

Conversely, a breakout toward a new all-time high – possibly around the $130,000 mark – could bring old whales back into play, expanding their realized cap. That said, a few warning signs point to potential short-term weakness.

For instance, BTC deposits to Binance have been rising steadily after months of decline, indicating that selling pressure may increase in the near future. At press time, BTC trades at $113,500, down 0.3% over the past 24 hours.

Featured image from Unsplash, charts from CryptoQuant and TradingView.com

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July 25, 2025

Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan says the long-observed four-year crypto cycle may no longer apply to the current market.

In a recent discussion with Bitcoin advocate Kyle Chassé and Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart, Hougan argued that the historical pattern is breaking down, and a longer, more sustained growth phase could be on the horizon.

Traditionally, crypto markets have followed a four-year rhythm driven by Bitcoin’s halving events, shifting interest rates, and the cyclical blow-ups that have rattled the industry. But Hougan believes these drivers are now losing influence.

Matt Hougan Predicts ‘Sustained Boom’ for Crypto as Traditional Cycles Fade

In a follow-up post on X, Hougan pointed to the diminishing impact of the Bitcoin halving, noting that each one has half the effect of the last. “The halving is half as important every four years,” he said.

The rationale is simple: as block rewards diminish in absolute terms, their effect on overall market supply shrinks relative to the growing scale of the crypto economy. As such, halvings no longer serve as the singular driving force behind bullish market cycles.

He also noted how interest rate cycles, once a severe headwind for crypto in downturns like 2018 and 2022, are now acting as tailwinds, buoyed by a more stable and accommodative macro environment.

Hougan further emphasized that the risk of blowups, which had once controlled cycles in the crypto space, has been greatly reduced due to the shift to improved regulation and growing institutional involvement.

In place of the old cycle, Hougan sees new forces taking hold, ones that move on longer timelines and aren’t tied to halving years.

At the top of the list is the growing inflow of capital into crypto-related ETFs. That wave, which started in 2024, is just beginning, he said, and could last five to ten years.

Institutional adoption is another key trend. Hougan said pensions, endowments, and national account platforms are only starting to embrace crypto exposure. He expects that trend to accelerate as more crypto ETFs win approval.

He also pointed to progress on the regulatory front. In his view, January 2025 marked the beginning of a new era of policymaking for the industry. Hougan cited the passage of the GENIUS Act earlier this month as a major shift.

The legislation has opened the door for Wall Street to begin building financial products around crypto, he said, predicting that banks will invest billions over the coming years.

In his post, Hougan added that new developments such as the rise of crypto treasury firms holding Bitcoin on their balance sheets are shaping a different kind of cycle. He believes these emerging patterns won’t follow the sharp booms and busts of the past.

“I think it’s more of a sustained steady boom than a supercycle,” Hougan wrote. “The long-term pro-crypto forces will overwhelm the classic four-year cycle forces.”

Looking ahead, he believes 2026 will be a strong year for crypto, although he warned that volatility is still expected.

Bitwise CIO Sees Bitcoin on Path to $1M Amid Policy Shifts and Growing Institutional Support

This is not the first time Hougan has believed that Bitcoin has entered a new phase of institutional adoption, marked by major shifts in finance and policy.

On December 13, 2024, Hougan pointed to several key developments signaling this shift: BlackRock’s suggested 2% portfolio allocation to Bitcoin, the rapid uptake of spot Bitcoin ETFs, and growing public support from financial leaders like Ray Dalio.

He also noted the increasing political acceptance of crypto, noting President Donald Trump’s vocal backing of Bitcoin and his appearance at a major industry event.

Forward to this year, Hougan predicted Bitcoin could reach $200,000 by the end of 2025, driven by demand from sovereign wealth funds, public companies, and institutional investors.

“The final barrier fell when governments became holders,” he said. “Bitcoin’s survival was no longer in doubt; growth became the focus.”

Hougan maintains that Bitcoin is now in a new phase, less speculative and more institutional and structural.

Global oil markets are on high alert following U.S. airstrikes on three of Iran’s nuclear facilities, Fordow, Isfahan, and Natanz, with fears mounting over a potential closure of the critical Strait of Hormuz. The military action, announced by President Donald Trump last night, has intensified geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and raised concerns about a sharp spike in oil prices.

The Strait of Hormuz is a narrow sea passage between the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman. It provides the only water access from the Persian Gulf to the open ocean and has historically been one of the most strategically important shipping bottlenecks.

Roughly 20% of the world’s oil supply flows through the Strait. Any disruption to it could send crude prices soaring to $120–$130 per barrel, threatening global economic stability and stoking inflation, since soaring oil prices translate into higher costs of everyday goods for consumers.

Despite the U.S. joining forces with Israel last night to attack Iran’s nuclear program, the global benchmark Brent crude remains relatively stable for now, trading at around $72 per barrel. The situation remains highly volatile as markets await further clarity on Iran’s response and the status of the Strait.

Since news of the strikes, the price of Bitcoin has shown resilience, currently trading above $102,600 and remaining steady even as traditional markets brace for potential shocks. This stability reinforces the growing perception among investors that Bitcoin is no longer just a speculative asset but is increasingly being recognized as a safe-haven option in times of geopolitical turmoil.

Bitcoin’s fixed supply, decentralized nature, and rising adoption have contributed to its new role as a hedge against inflation and global instability. As oil prices and traditional assets face turbulence, Bitcoin’s calm performance suggests that it is increasingly being viewed as a complementary risk-off alongside gold. This is a trend that will likely strengthen as the global economy becomes increasingly digital and interconnected.

Moreover, since the Bitcoin and crypto markets are open to trade 24/7, they are often the first to be sold off over the weekends as investors flee to safety. Bitcoin’s price barely flinching amid the news of the U.S. airstrikes demonstrates the undeniable maturation of the market.

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Dogecoin (DOGE) recovered from an intraday low of $0.164 to close near $0.171, posting a 4.7% bounce in line with broader market weakness. The move suggests institutional buyers may be quietly accumulating at lower levels as market participants brace for continued volatility.

News Background

• Dogecoin’s rebound comes in the wake of intense selling pressure sparked by escalating geopolitical tensions between Israel and Iran. The sharp market-wide correction, which triggered mass liquidations, briefly pushed DOGE down more than 7% intraday on Wednesday.
• Meanwhile, macroeconomic headwinds persist. The U.S. Federal Reserve continues to maintain restrictive monetary policy, keeping rates at 4.25%–4.50% while actively reducing its balance sheet — a dynamic that has historically weighed on riskier bets such as DOGE.
• Still, the memecoin remains one of the most liquid assets in the crypto space, with daily turnover near $1.37 billion and market cap holding above $24.7 billion.
• Elsewhere, technical indicators show DOGE entering oversold territory, and social sentiment data from LunarCrush reveals an 86% positive tone across 16,000+ mentions, suggesting continued community conviction even amid price volatility.

DOGE’s near-term outlook may hinge on regulatory developments, including a potential U.S. spot ETF decision, as well as continued adoption on DeFi platforms such as Coinbase’s Base network where wrapped DOGE is gaining traction.

Price Action

DOGE saw its sharpest decline during the 13:00 hour, dropping to $0.164 on a 591M volume spike — the highest of the day.

The strong bounce that followed pushed prices back above $0.171, where the memecoin found near-term equilibrium.

Price action has since consolidated in a tight band between $0.170 and $0.1696, with small volume bursts suggesting accumulation at lower levels.

Technical Analysis Recap

• DOGE posted a 4.7% recovery, rising from $0.164 to $0.171.
• Major liquidation-driven selloff occurred at 13:00, with volume peaking at 591M units.
• Volume-based support established at $0.164; resistance remains firm near $0.172.
• Recent candles show signs of accumulation, particularly during the 02:00–02:02 period (3.4M volume).
• RSI at 33.29 suggests DOGE may be nearing oversold territory.
• Price is consolidating just above short-term support of $0.1696.
• If DOGE breaks above $0.1750, the next resistance zone lies at $0.1820; failure to do so could trigger a retest of $0.1640 or even $0.150 in a risk-off environment.
• Technical patterns point to a descending triangle — typically a bearish signal — but reduced volatility suggests stabilization.

Disclaimer: Portions of this article were generated with the assistance of AI tools and reviewed by CoinDesk’s editorial team for accuracy and adherence to our standards. For more information, see CoinDesk’s full AI Policy.

Billionaire and hedge fund legend Steve Cohen reportedly believes that the US economy is not yet over the hump despite positive developments over the last few weeks.

At the Sohn Investment Conference in New York, the head of Point72 Asset Management says there’s a 45% chance that the US will enter a period of economic contraction, reports Bloomberg.

“We aren’t in a recession yet, but we have significant slowing growth.”

Cohen predicts that the US economy will grow by 1.5% in 2026, noting that the figure is “OK but not phenomenal.”

Data from Trading Economics shows that the US GDP has grown 3.2% on average from 1947 until 2025.

Turning to the S&P 500, Cohen notes that the stock market’s abrupt reversal after falling to a low of 4,835 points in April is “unusual,” comparing the move to the rallies witnessed after the March 2020 Covid-induced collapse.

For now, the billionaire says it is within the realm of possibility for the S&P 500 to retrace by as much as 15% or just move sideways in the coming months.

“Markets don’t have to go up every year. Markets can go sideways and that’s perfectly normal.” 

As for the Federal Reserve, Cohen thinks that Chair Jerome Powell will keep interest rates steady to cushion the economy against tariff-induced shocks.

“They are going to be worried about inflation from tariffs.”

Cohen is not the only one to sound the alarm about the possibility of the US entering an economic recession. Last week, JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon said that a US economic downturn is something he wouldn’t take off the table at this point, even after the White House signed a trade truce with China last week.

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During this period, the DEX buy/sell ratio experienced significant volatility. It spiked to 17.5 on May 4, showing a temporary wave of aggressive buying, but quickly consolidated back below 1.5 by May 12. Despite the sharp surge in order flow, XRP’s price remained relatively controlled, increasing gradually rather than reacting with a sharp breakout that ended in an equally rapid consolidation.

Rising liquidity provided a cushion that absorbed speculative pressures without triggering large swings. As the buy/sell ratio softened, XRP continued its rise, showing that short-term speculation wasn’t driving the move higher.

Since the beginning of the week, XRP’s DEX buy/sell ratio has hovered between 1.4 and 1.5, indicating a more balanced structure. Liquidity remained above $19 billion, supporting price resilience even as short-term buying cooled.

This behavior shows that XRP’s rise above $2.5 on DEXs was supported by broader improvements in liquidity, even if it was initiated by a fleeting speculative burst. Robust liquidity like this reduces the risk of sudden reversals and can lead to a more sustainable rally in the short term.

The post XRP maintains steady price increase despite early May buy spike appeared first on CryptoSlate.