Good Morning, Asia. Here’s what’s making news in the markets:

Welcome to Asia Morning Briefing, a daily summary of top stories during U.S. hours and an overview of market moves and analysis. For a detailed overview of U.S. markets, see CoinDesk’s Crypto Daybook Americas.

Crypto traders remain cautious ahead of Thursday’s U.S. CPI report, with BTC trading flat above $111,600, and ETH at $4,298. The CD20, a measure of the performance of the largest digital assets, is trading above 4,000, up 1.6%.

The August Nonfarm Payrolls miss, just 22,000 jobs added versus expectations of 75,000, pushed futures higher and dragged 2-year Treasury yields to year-lows as markets priced in 72 bps of cuts this year. Yet crypto remains rangebound, diverging from broader risk sentiment.

Options markets confirm the defensive stance. QCP Capital noted in its recent Asia Market Update that risk reversals are increasingly skewed toward puts, with short-dated implied vols elevated into CPI.

Polymarket data backs this positioning: ETH carries a 70% chance of staying above $4,600 this month but only 13% odds of breaking $5,600. Traders are bracing for turbulence, not chasing upside. SOL is the outlier, with odds of a new all-time high before 2026 rising sharply, signaling improving breadth beneath the surface.

In a note to CoinDesk, market maker Enflux argues that the SEC’s forward-looking rules for token sales and listings, combined with the steady march of institutions like Coinbase into major indices, show how deeply crypto is embedding into the system. This is the “split-screen reality” of 2025: speculation dominates headlines, while adoption rails are being laid in the background.

The legitimacy narrative also played out in real time on Friday. Michael Saylor’s Strategy was left out of the S&P 500 despite meeting all criteria, while Robinhood was unexpectedly included instead, sending its stock up 7% and underscoring that crypto-adjacent firms with diversified business lines may reach blue-chip status faster than pure treasury plays.

WLFI’s turmoil illustrates the speculative side of the split-screen. The protocol froze over 270 wallets, including Justin Sun’s, to “protect users” after phishing-related compromises.

“On one side, speculative narratives like WLFI risk cannibalizing themselves through governance drama,” Enflux wrote in its note. “On the other hand, institutional-grade infrastructure and regulation are solidifying at a pace that suggests the rails for mainstream adoption are being laid faster than most expect.”

Onchain data shows Sun’s transfers came hours after WLFI’s crash, which was instead driven by shorting and dumping across exchanges. Yet the freeze rattled whales and market makers – shocked that the free market of crypto could be broken by protocol governance fiat – with insiders asking: “If they can do it to Sun, who’s next?”.

The takeaway: near-term volatility and governance drama may cap upside, but the deeper story is that crypto’s institutional and regulatory foundations are hardening.

“Structural legitimacy, not speculation, remains the real story of 2025,” Enflux continued.

For traders, that means bracing for CPI noise; for investors, it means the legitimacy story continues to build.

Market Movement:

BTC: Bitcoin is holding steady above $111K, with support from consolidation near key resistance levels and solid on‑chain support zones. Analysts suggest this stability could pave the way for a breakout, though some caution about a possible pullback toward $100K exists

ETH: Ethereum’s price has eased slightly intraday, trading around $4.3K. This movement may reflect broader crypto market dynamics, including relatively subdued demand and positioning around current technical levels.

Gold: Gold has surged to fresh record highs, recently hitting ~$3,636/oz, as expectations of U.S. interest rate cuts rise amid weak labor data, a soft U.S. dollar, geopolitical concerns, and continued central bank demand.

Nikkei 225: Japan’s Nikkei 225 rose 0.9% to a record high and the Topix gained 0.52% as investors bet a new LDP leader could deliver fresh fiscal stimulus following Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s resignation.

S&P 500: U.S. stocks edged higher Monday, with the S&P 500 up 0.2%, as investors awaited inflation data to gauge the likelihood of a jumbo Fed rate cut next week.

Elsewhere in Crypto

• Upbit Parent Files ‘GIWA’ Trademarks Amid Rumors of New Blockchain Launch (CoinDesk)
• How Trump Came Around to Crypto and What Crypto Wants in Return (Bloomberg)
• Kalshi’s $875 million in August trading volume, recent funding signal rising competition with Polymarket (The Block)

Bad news has just been bad news over the past 24 hours. Friday’s weak U.S. jobs report bolstered bets on deeper Fed cuts, but bitcoin BTC$110,542.77 hasn’t played along.

The leading cryptocurrency by market value remains heavy below $112,000, instead of rallying on the prospect of easier monetary policy as many had anticipated. The inability to find upside suggests potential for a deeper sell-off ahead.

NFP shock

Job seekers had a tough time in August as the nonfarm payrolls revealed just 22,000 job additions, significantly less than the Dow Jones’ projection of 75,000. The report also revised lower the combined job creation over June and July by 21,000. Notably, the revised June figure showed a net loss of 13,000.

Nine sectors, including manufacturing, construction, wholesale trade, and professional services, registered job losses, while health services and leisure and hospitality were bright spots.

The Kobeissi Letter called the jobs report “absolutely insane.” The newsletter service described the downward revisions in prior months as a sign of a broken system and the labour market entering recession territory.

Following the jobs data, the probability of a Fed rate cut at the Sept. 17 meeting surged to 100%, and the odds of a 50-basis-point cut jumped to 12%. The likelihood of additional rate cuts in November and December also increased, sending Treasury yields lower.

The upcoming revisions to earlier jobs reports are expected to add fuel to the rate cut bets. “The BLS will announce annual benchmark revisions on Tuesday, and they are expected to point to even weaker job growth earlier. Some surveys suggest between 500k and 1 mln jobs could be revised away,” Bannockburn Global Forex’s Managing Director and Chief Market Strategist, Marc Chandler said in a market update.

BTC’s double top is intact; volatility in Treasury yields may rise

Bitcoin briefly rallied on hopes of a Fed rate cut and softer yields, reaching a high of over $113,300. But the bounce quickly faded, with prices slipping back under $111,982 — the double‑top neckline.

Failing to retake that level underscored the late August double top breakdown and validates the bearish setup, keeping downside risks in focus. Prices crossing below the Ichimoku cloud further validates the bearish outlook, as Brent Donnelly, president of Spectra Markets, noted in a market update.

The first line of support is located around $101,700, which corresponds to the 200-day simple moving average (SMA). The latest double top breakdown in bitcoin closely mirrors the one from February this year, which led to a significant multi-week sell-off that pushed prices down to around $75,000.

The double top is a bearish reversal chart formation that occurs after an asset has experienced an uptrend. It forms when the price reaches a high point (the first peak), then pulls back to a support level called the neckline. The price then rises again but fails to surpass the first peak, creating a second peak at roughly the same level. The pattern is confirmed when the price breaks below the neckline, signaling that the previous uptrend has lost momentum and a downtrend may follow.

Treasury yields may turn volatile

The bearish technical outlook, presented by the latest double top breakdown, is reinforced by the possibility of a pickup in volatility in Treasury yields, which often leads to financial tightening.

The volatility could pick up in the coming days, as the impending Fed rate cuts could initially send the 10-year yield lower in a positive development for BTC and risk assets. That said, the downside looks limited and could be quickly reversed, much like what happened in late 2024.

Last year, from September through December, the 10-year yield actually rose, even as the Fed began cutting rates, reversing earlier declines that had occurred in the lead-up to September. The 10-year yield bottomed out at 3.6% in mid-September 2024 and then rose to 4.80% by mid-January.

While the labour market today appears significantly weaker than last year, inflation is relatively higher, and fiscal spending continues unabated, both of which mean that the yield could surge following the September rate cut.

“Why the 10yr yield rose from September through December 2024 is open to interpretation, but there was an underpinning of macro resilience, sticky-ish inflation and lots of talk on fiscal largesse as a medium-term risk. This time around, granted, worries on the economy are more intense. But offsetting this are ongoing fiscal concerns, and quite a different inflation dynamic,” analysts at ING said in a note to clients.

August CPI data due next week

When the Fed cut rates last September, the U.S. consumer price index was well below 3%. Since then, it has edged back up to 3%. More importantly, the August CPI data, due next week, is likely to provide further evidence of inflation stickiness.

According to Wells Fargo, the core CPI is likely to have risen by 0.3%, keeping the year-over-year rate at 3.1%. Meanwhile, the headline CPI is forecast to have risen 0.3% month-over-month and 2.9% year-over-year.

The recent passage of the GENIUS Act introduced a new regulatory framework for stablecoins, such as Tether (USDT), drawing increasing attention from traditional and cryptocurrency firms.

Tether’s Regulatory Challenges And Rising Rivals

With the stablecoin market growing from $120 billion in October 2023 to $288 billion as of August, Tether’s USDT continues to hold its position as the largest stablecoin. 

However, the Motley Fool team has identified three emerging contenders that are poised to disrupt the company’s dominance and present significant competition.

Tether commands nearly 60% of the stablecoin market, but it has not been without controversy. In 2021, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) fined Tether $41 million for “misleading claims” regarding its reserves, which were allegedly not fully backed by US dollars. 

Furthermore, Tether’s current reporting practices do not align with the requirements set forth by the recently passed GENIUS Act, which mandates stablecoin issuers to publish monthly disclosures about their reserves. 

Notably, the stablecoin issuer only provides these reports on a quarterly basis, potentially opening the door for competitors to capture some of its market share, at least in the United States.

Related Reading

Among the most prominent challengers highlighted is USD Coin (USDC), which boasts a market capitalization of approximately $68 billion. Like Tether, USDC is a fiat-backed stablecoin; however, it has not faced any legal scrutiny regarding its reserves. 

The issuer, Circle, has consistently published monthly attestations since USDC’s inception in 2018. The Motley Tool team asserts that this commitment positions USDC as Tether’s primary competitor, especially as regulatory compliance becomes increasingly crucial. 

The competitive landscape is further complicated by regulatory developments in Europe. Under the European Union’s Market in Crypto-Assets Regulation (MiCA), stablecoin issuers must obtain regulatory approval and meet strict reserve requirements. 

Circle has already achieved compliance with both USDC and its Euro stablecoin, EURC, while Tether has opted to withdraw from the European market entirely.

A New Contender With Ties To XRP

Another contender is Dai, now rebranded as USDS, which differentiates itself by adhering to the principles of decentralization. Unlike Tether and USDC, Dai is managed by Sky, previously known as MakerDAO, a decentralized autonomous organization. 

This structure allows anyone holding SKY governance tokens to participate in decision-making processes concerning Dai. Rather than being backed by fiat reserves, Dai is a crypto-backed stablecoin, relying on overcollateralized crypto loans. 

Lastly, Ripple USD (RUSD) enters the fray as a smaller player with a market cap of around $667 million. Despite its size, the Motley Fool asserts that RUSD’s connection to XRP makes it a formidable competitor. 

Related Reading

Ripple, the company behind XRP, has launched RUSD as part of its payment solutions for financial institutions, focusing on efficient cross-border transactions. 

Additionally, RUSD has received regulatory approval from the New York State Department of Financial Services, which adds a layer of credibility and could help it gain traction in the market.

Despite the potential threat, Tether’s figures far surpass those of these three challengers. This suggests that the firm’s reign in the stablecoin market may continue for some time. One thing is certain, though: stablecoins are making a notable entrance into the broader financial landscape.

Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com 

Ethereum price started a fresh increase above the $3,720 zone. ETH is now showing bullish signs and might continue to rise toward the $3,850 zone.

• Ethereum started a fresh increase above the $3,720 level.
• The price is trading above $3,670 and the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average.
• There is a key bullish trend line forming with support at $3,670 on the hourly chart of ETH/USD (data feed via Kraken).
• The pair could start a fresh increase if it remains supported above the $3,650 zone in the near term.

Ethereum Price Aims Fresh Increase Above $3,800

Ethereum price started a fresh increase above the $3,660 zone, outperforming Bitcoin. ETH price gained pace for a move above the $3,720 resistance zone to remain in a positive zone.

The bulls even pumped the price above $3,800. Finally, it tested the $3,860 zone. A high was formed at $3,859 and the price recently corrected some gains. There was a move below the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $3,481 swing low to the $3,859 high.

The price tested the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $3,481 swing low to the $3,859 high. Ethereum price is now trading above $3,650 and the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average. There is also a key bullish trend line forming with support at $3,670 on the hourly chart of ETH/USD.

On the upside, the price could face resistance near the $3,770 level. The next key resistance is near the $3,800 level. The first major resistance is near the $3,850 level. A clear move above the $3,850 resistance might send the price toward the $3,920 resistance.

An upside break above the $3,920 resistance might call for more gains in the coming sessions. In the stated case, Ether could rise toward the $4,000 resistance zone or even $4,200 in the near term.

Are Downsides Supported In ETH?

If Ethereum fails to clear the $3,770 resistance, it could start a downside correction. Initial support on the downside is near the $3,670 level. The first major support sits near the $3,650 zone.

A clear move below the $3,620 support might push the price toward the $3,550 support. Any more losses might send the price toward the $3,450 support level in the near term. The next key support sits at $3,320.

Technical Indicators

Hourly MACD – The MACD for ETH/USD is losing momentum in the bullish zone.

Hourly RSI – The RSI for ETH/USD is now above the 50 zone.

Major Support Level – $3,670

Major Resistance Level – $3,800

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After a weekend of consolidation just below its all-time high near $112,000, Bitcoin is entering the new week with momentum building and bullish sentiment rising. Trading around $110K, BTC continues to hold a strong technical structure, and many analysts believe it’s only a matter of time before the next leg higher begins. With volatility tightening and the broader market gaining strength, all eyes are on Bitcoin as it flirts with price discovery once again.

Conviction is growing among top analysts who are now calling for significant price surges in the weeks ahead. On-chain metrics and price action continue to support the bullish outlook, pointing to sustained demand and a resilient trend structure. However, one emerging factor worth watching is miner behavior.

Top analyst Axel Adler shared new insights revealing that after hitting the ATH, miners have increased their BTC sales on exchanges. Inflows have doubled from an average of 25 BTC to 50 BTC per day, suggesting a profit-taking trend.

Bitcoin Prepares A Move As Market Absorbs Increased Miner Selling

Bitcoin is positioning itself for a potentially explosive phase as sentiment across the market grows increasingly bullish. Trading just below its all-time high near $112,000, BTC remains in a strong uptrend, and the coming days are likely to prove pivotal in confirming whether the next leg higher is ready to begin. With price action holding firm and bullish structure intact, many analysts believe an impulsive breakout could be imminent.

Adding fuel to the outlook is the broader global context. Trade tensions between the US and other major economies continue to escalate, and markets are becoming more reactive to macro uncertainty. In this environment, Bitcoin is once again being viewed as both a hedge and a high-beta growth asset—one that thrives in periods of volatility.

Adler shared key insights on miner behavior that may influence short-term price action. Since Bitcoin’s recent ATH, miner inflows to exchanges have doubled, from an average of 25 BTC to 50 BTC per day. While this indicates a noticeable uptick in selling, Adler notes that these levels remain well below historical peaks of around 100 BTC per day.

More importantly, the market appears to be absorbing this added supply without showing signs of stress. This suggests that demand remains robust, and selling pressure from miners is not yet strong enough to derail the uptrend. Instead, it reflects a healthy and expected shift in behavior following a major price milestone.

As Bitcoin hovers near all-time highs, the combination of strong market structure, supportive on-chain data, and resilient demand could set the stage for a powerful continuation. If bulls reclaim $112K with conviction, BTC may enter a fresh price discovery phase with targets well beyond current levels.

Bulls Hold Range Above $108K

Bitcoin is trading at $109,676 on the 4-hour chart, consolidating in a tight range just below its all-time high near $112,000. After a brief retracement from local highs, BTC has maintained its bullish structure, forming higher lows and staying well above key moving averages. The 34 EMA (green) at $108,639 acts as dynamic support, while the 50 and 100 SMAs (purple and blue) at $108,271 and $105,958 provide additional downside protection.

Volume has slightly declined during this consolidation, indicating a temporary pause rather than a reversal. Price remains comfortably above the major horizontal support level at $103,600—now a critical base for any deeper pullbacks. The uptrend remains intact as long as this zone holds.

What’s notable is BTC’s ability to hold above the 34 EMA despite increased miner inflows and broader market caution. This resilience suggests strong buyer interest and positioning ahead of a potential breakout.

To confirm continuation, bulls need to reclaim the $111K–$112K range with volume. A break above this resistance would likely trigger the next impulsive leg higher. For now, Bitcoin remains in a bullish consolidation phase, with strong support levels anchoring price action as the market awaits a decisive move.

Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView

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Bitcoin (BTC) has a new gold-inspired $155,000 target, as analysis describes both assets as “remarkably impressive.”

In a post on X on April 16, popular trading and analytics account Cryptollica predicted BTC/USD copying gold to hit new all-time highs next.

Analysis sees key BTC price similarities to gold

Bitcoin has made the headlines for its inability to follow in gold’s record-breaking footsteps in 2025.

While XAU/USD continues to see repeated record highs, BTC/USD is down 9.3% year-to-date, data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows.

Despite calls for an imminent “blow-off top” for gold, Bitcoin bulls hope that after a delay of several months, its “digital” equivalent will follow suit.

For Cryptollica, this means BTC/USD breaking out of a consolidatory wedge structure to swiftly reclaim six figures — and more.

“Bitcoin midterm target: 155K $,” it told X followers.

BTC price performance already has various potential tailwinds at its disposal, all of which have fueled bull runs in the past.

As Cointelegraph reported, these include a declining US dollar index (DXY) and all-time highs in the global M2 money supply.

Bitcoin “remarkably impressive” during trade war

Continuing, onchain analytics firm Glassnode argued that despite the price performance disparity, Bitcoin and gold have weathered the current macroeconomic storm remarkably well.

Related: Can 3-month Bitcoin RSI highs counter bearish BTC price ‘seasonality?’

“Amidst this turmoil, the performance of hard assets remains remarkably impressive,” it summarized in the latest edition of its regular newsletter, “The Week Onchain,” published on April 16. 

“Gold continues to surge higher, having reached a new ATH of $3,300, as investors flee to the traditional safe haven asset. Bitcoin sold off to $75k initially alongside risk assets, but has since recovered the weeks gains, trading back up to $85k, now flat since this burst of volatility.”

Glassnode said that gold and BTC are “increasingly entering the centre stage as global neutral reserve assets.”

In terms of the BTC price drawdown, analysts stressed the fact that by historical standards, the dip versus all-time highs remains modest at around 30%.

“In prior macroeconomic events like last week, Bitcoin has typically experienced greater than -50% sell-offs in such events, which highlights a degree of robustness of modern investor sentiment towards the asset during unfavourable conditions,” it wrote, referring to the ongoing US-China trade war.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

]]> https://earlybirdsinvest.com/bitcoin-gold-copycat-move-may-top-150k-as-btc-stays-impressive/feed/ 0 31273 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/android-users-just-dodged-a-bullet-as-the-cve-cybersecurity-tracker-stays-funded/ https://earlybirdsinvest.com/android-users-just-dodged-a-bullet-as-the-cve-cybersecurity-tracker-stays-funded/#respond Thu, 17 Apr 2025 00:59:11 +0000 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/android-users-just-dodged-a-bullet-as-the-cve-cybersecurity-tracker-stays-funded/

Most users of technology don’t have to consciously think about security vulnerabilities on their most-used devices, including Android-based products, very often. As long as you update your phone as soon as new security patches are available, you’re usually covered. However, there’s an intricate government-supported program operating to make that all possible, and it almost went dark today.

After roughly 24 hours of uncertainty, the U.S. Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Agency (CISA) announced that it would continue funding the Common Vulnerabilities and Exposures (CVE) on the day its previous contract was set to expire. Today, April 16, a spokesperson for the CISA told The Verge that the agency “executed the option period on the contract to ensure there will be no lapse in critical CVE services.”

But it went down to the wire in a move that could’ve sent the entire globe into a tech security nightmare.

It all has to do with the CVE program, which identifies and tracks security issues in public view, from the point a potential problem is identified to the time when a proper fix is issued. It has nearly 500 partners that include security researchers, open-source developers, and major companies — including big ones like Google, Microsoft, and Apple.

If the CVE program sounds familiar, that’s probably because you’ve seen a CVE code mentioned in an article (like one of the many CVE-related ones on Android Central) or the release notes of an update. They’re also a major part of monthly releases on the Android Security Bulletin. These codes, like CVE-2024-53104, start with CVE followed by the year and a number, and create a universal database to track security flaws across devices, platforms, and companies.

The CVE program has been active for 25 years, beginning in 1999. It has become invaluable to the security community, serving as a universal way for researchers, developers, companies, and the public to work together to discover and patch crucial vulnerabilities. More importantly, it publicly states whether a vulnerability is believed to have been actively exploited by bad actors.

Leading security researchers have pointed out the consequences of the CVE program shutting down, like Lukasz Olejnik on X (formerly Twitter).

“The consequence will be a breakdown in coordination between vendors, analysts, and defense systems — no one will be certain they are referring to the same vulnerability,” wrote Olejnik, a scholar with advanced degrees in computer science and information technology law with specializations in privacy. “Total chaos, and a sudden weakening of cybersecurity across the board.”

The crisis has been avoided… for now?

Luckily, it appears that the crisis has been avoided, as the federal government will continue to fund the CVE program for at least the near future. However, the decision coming down to the wire as the Trump administration slashes federal funding across the board puts the CVE program in a more uncertain position now than at any point in its 25-year history.

“The CVE Program is invaluable to the cyber community and a priority of CISA,” the spokesperson said in a statement to The Verge. “We appreciate our partners’ and stakeholders’ patience.”

But that final green light didn’t come quick enough, as the security world already started making plans to keep the CVE program up and running — even without federal funding. CVE board members created the CVE Foundation, a nonprofit planned for in secret for the past year that would ensure the CVE mission continues.

“CVE, as a cornerstone of the global cybersecurity ecosystem, is too important to be vulnerable itself,” said Kent Landfield, an officer of the CVE Foundation, in a press release. “Cybersecurity professionals around the globe rely on CVE identifiers and data as part of their daily work, from security tools and advisories to threat intelligence and response. Without CVE, defenders are at a massive disadvantage against global cyber threats.”

The foundation explains that it is concerned that having a single government sponsor could create “a single point of failure in the vulnerability management ecosystem.”

The CVE program could be changing as we know it

The CVE program is a critical part of Android security, and it should be relevant to every single person who touches an Android-based device. Although government funding has been acquired for now, the moves that have been set in motion by the last-minute decision may not be reversed. The CVE Foundation is here, and it might be here to stay.

There’s no word on whether the CVE Foundation will continue to operate now that the CVE program has retained U.S. government funding, but the foundation said more information will be released “over the coming days.” The immediate U.S. government funding doesn’t solve the long-term problem the CVE Foundation has identified — the possibility of having a single point of failure — so there still may be a reason for it to exist.

Regardless of how this all plays out, the decision to fund the CVE program should’ve never come this close to ending a crucial global security program. Most of us have the luxury to not think about device security that often, and it’s programs like the CVE that allow us that privilege.

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Bitcoin is facing a critical test as global markets remain volatile and macroeconomic tensions escalate. After weeks of price swings and uncertainty, BTC is trading above the $85,000 level — a psychological and technical threshold that bulls have managed to defend. Momentum appears to be building, but the real test lies ahead: reclaiming the $90,000 mark to confirm a recovery and shift broader sentiment.

Despite the recent bounce, the market environment remains fragile. CryptoQuant insights reveal that market risk is still elevated, even as Bitcoin’s price attempts to stabilize. According to their latest data, only 24% of the circulating supply is currently in an unrealized loss — a relatively low figure when compared to previous major corrections. Historically, such a level is often associated with early-stage pullbacks rather than full-scale capitulation.

This suggests that while bulls are stepping in, the broader market hasn’t fully flushed out excess risk, leaving room for additional downside if sentiment turns again. As the geopolitical climate remains tense and the macroeconomic outlook uncertain, Bitcoin’s next move will be crucial in determining whether this is the start of a sustained recovery or simply a temporary relief rally within a larger correction.

Bitcoin Price Steadies But Market Risk Remains Elevated

Global tensions and macroeconomic uncertainty continue to drive Bitcoin price behavior, with recent action hinting at a potential shift in momentum. As inflation begins to trend lower and the U.S. stock market shows signs of fragility, many analysts expect the Federal Reserve may eventually be forced to lower interest rates to prevent a deeper economic crisis. However, with trade negotiations between the U.S. and China evolving quickly, the timeline for any monetary easing remains unclear.

Despite Bitcoin’s recent bounce above $85,000, on-chain data from CryptoQuant highlights that market risk is far from resolved. While BTC has undergone a notable correction—dropping over 30% from its all-time highs—only 24% of the circulating supply is currently in an unrealized loss. This is historically a low level, often seen during early-stage corrections, not during deep capitulation phases.

The unrealized loss component is currently concentrated within the historical bottom zone, meaning that long-term holders are the ones absorbing the downside. This pattern typically reflects resilience but also signals caution: such phases tend to precede extended periods of sideways consolidation or further volatility rather than an immediate rally.

In summary, while bullish momentum is building, the market remains vulnerable. A sustained move higher will likely require improved macro clarity and confirmation of policy shifts before Bitcoin can fully break into a renewed uptrend.

Technical Details: Price Holds Above Key Indicators

Bitcoin is currently trading at $85,500 after successfully pushing above the 4-hour 200 MA and EMA, both positioned around the $84,000 level. This technical breakout is a positive sign for bulls, who now need to maintain price action above these indicators to confirm a shift in short-term momentum and initiate a broader recovery phase.

Holding above the $84K zone is crucial, as it signals strength and buyer commitment at this level. If bulls can continue to defend this range and reclaim the psychological $90,000 level, Bitcoin could quickly move into higher supply zones, potentially targeting a new local high and breaking the current consolidation pattern.

However, despite this positive momentum, risks remain. If BTC fails to maintain support above the $84K zone and dips below $81,000, it could trigger renewed selling pressure. Such a breakdown would likely result in a sharp drop toward the $75,000 support region, a level closely watched by analysts for its historical significance.

For now, Bitcoin’s price structure remains cautiously optimistic. Sustained buying interest and favorable macro conditions will be required to support further gains and confirm the beginning of a lasting recovery.

Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView 

Editorial Process for bitcoinist is centered on delivering thoroughly researched, accurate, and unbiased content. We uphold strict sourcing standards, and each page undergoes diligent review by our team of top technology experts and seasoned editors. This process ensures the integrity, relevance, and value of our content for our readers.

The Bitcoin (BTC) mining hashprice — a miner’s daily revenue per unit of hashing power expended to mine blocks — has remained constant at around $48 per petahash per second (PH/s), despite a slight 1.4% uptick in Bitcoin difficulty.

Data from CoinWarz shows that the Bitcoin difficulty climbed to 113.76 trillion at block 889,081 on March 23, up from the 112.1 trillion difficulty in the previous epoch.

According to TheMinerMag, a hashprice below $50 places financial stress on miners running older hardware such as the Antminer S19 XP and S19 Pro.

The older hardware coupled with declining network transaction fees risks pushing some miners into unprofitable territory — forcing them to turn off their hardware until they upgrade their application-specific integrated circuits (ASICs) or network conditions change.

Mining firms have been struggling since the April 2024 Bitcoin halving event, which slashed the block subsidy to 3.125 BTC per block mined, generally increasing network difficulty, and the recent downturn in the crypto markets due to macroeconomic uncertainty.

Related: SEC says proof-of-work mining does not constitute securities dealing

Miners have a rough start to 2025

Research from financial services firm JPMorgan shows that publicly listed Bitcoin mining companies collectively lost 22% of their share value in February 2025.

Even miners who diversified operations into artificial intelligence and high-performance computing data centers, to shore up revenue lost through mining activities, are facing financial pressures, the JPMorgan report found.

The financial services firm cited the release of DeepSeek R1, an open-source AI model trained for a fraction of the cost as the leading models and performs on par with closed-source AI products, as a strain on large AI data centers.

A steadily rising network hashrate, which is the sum total computing power in the Bitcoin network, is also creating increased competition among miners, who must expend greater computing resources to remain profitable.

Fears of a prolonged trade war between the United States and Canada, alongside constant tariff headlines, have put miners on edge.

Threats from Canadian officials to levy tariffs on energy exports to the United States place even more pressure on the already struggling industry.

Magazine: Korea to lift corporate crypto ban, beware crypto mining HDs: Asia Express

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