01 September Bitfinex alpha | BTC slip, alt stagnates

Bitcoin has now been below $110,000, below its peak in January 2025 $109,590, extending the cut from its all-time high of $123,640 to over 13%. Although this failure has technical weight, the historic drawdown pattern and seasonality suggest that the market is in fact in the later stages of its correction phase, with $93-95,000 emerging as the most likely zone of cyclical floors. On-chain data confirms this: current short-term holders have a realised price of $108,900 serving as a key pivot, and sustained transactions below this level could further fuel the downside. Exchange order flow metrics such as cumulative volume delta also emphasize spot emotion neutralization, reinforcing the view that buyers are returning until a stronger catalyst emerges.

Altcoins are getting worse, reflecting a wide range of risk-off behaviors. ETH has retreated 14% after temporarily posting a new ATH, while XRP, ADA and Doge have seen double-digit losses. However, institutional demand is resilient under the surface, with ETH’s Treasury and corporate buyers continuing to expand their holdings. Intermediate names like CROs and Pumps outperformed through story-driven gatherings, but this rotation came at the expense of weaker names rather than new influx.

What is emerging is the market capitalization of stagnant Altcoin, and Alts’ movements signal capital turnover rather than expansion. September could mark a cyclical low point before structural drivers reaffirm Q4 recovery as ETF influx was seasonally muted and speculative excesses were flushed.

In the last week of August, US economic data presented complex photos for policymakers ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting in September. Consumer spending in July rose 0.5%, the strongest in four months, but inflationary pressures remained rising, with core PCE moving 2.9% year-on-year. At the same time, job creation slowed to 35,000 a month, but an updated benchmark from the St. Louis Fed suggests that there are fewer new jobs needed to maintain labour market stability. This recalibration lowers the policy easing threshold to tilt expectations for September’s interest rate cuts, despite inflation exceeding targets. GDP data added to complexity: While second quarter growth was revised to 3.3% and driven by strong intellectual property and equipment investments, regional surveys such as Chicago Business Barometer showed weaker business activities under the weight of tariffs and reduced reliability.

In addition to these macroeconomic changes, the development of regulations and crypto markets highlighted broader financial support for asset classes. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission reaffirmed the framework of the Foreign Trade Framework and made it clear that offshore exchanges can be re-entered into the US market under established rules. The adoption of digital assets has also accelerated, with BitMine Immersion Technology holding $88.2 billion in crypto and cash, pursuing its ambition to strengthen its position as the world’s largest Ethereum financing company and earning 5% of Ethereum’s total supply.

Meanwhile, El Salvador has advanced its sovereign Bitcoin strategy by spreading a $682 million reserve across multiple wallets to mitigate security risks, combining it with a public dashboard aimed at increasing transparency and positioning the country as a benchmark for national crypto governance.

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Bitcoin (BTC), the largest cryptocurrency, is taking a breath before the next phase of its rally. While all major metrics are stagnating, some macro indicators hint at a possible 50% upside for the crypto king’s price.

Bitcoin (BTC) price brutally rejected at $113,000

Bitcoin (BTC), the first cryptocurrency, failed to expand its rally to over $113,000. Yesterday, Sept. 5, 2025, its price jumped by 2%, but was stopped by bears. Immediately after touching the resistance level, it dropped back to $110,300.

At press time, Bitcoin’s (BTC) price has stabilized at around $110,900 on major spot trading platforms. In the last 24 hours, Bitcoin (BTC) is up by a negligible 0.24%.

The rest of the cryptocurrency market is also stagnant today. The aggregated capitalization of digital assets added 0.19% and hit $3.81 trillion in equivalent.

The cryptocurrency’s Fear and Greed Index dropped to 48/100, which is considered to be a “Neutral” indicator. As per CoinMarketCap, the cryptocurrency’s RSI sits at 48.46, which also signals about the market being at a crossroads.

In the last 24 hours, the cryptocurrency’s liquidations were below $100 million, which is an indicator of market apathy.

Spot Bitcoin ETFs log $400 million in outflows in two days

Exchange-traded products on spot Bitcoin (BTC) are witnessing outflows in recent sessions. On Sept. 4-5, U.S. BTC ETFs lost almost $400 million in equivalent.

On Sept. 4, 2025, $227 million was withdrawn by investors, followed by $160 million erased the next day. As a result, the aggregated spot Bitcoin ETFs AUM dropped to $144.5 billion.

BlackRock’s IBIT, Grayscale’s GBTC and Bitwise’s BITB are the three most affected ETFs; combined, they lost about $150 million in just one session.

As covered by U.Today previously, spot Bitcoin ETFs have been losing traction since early July 2025. Investors’ pessimism might be a signal of liquidity migration to alternative TradFi products, precious metals and stocks.

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At the same time, Ethereum spot ETFs were hit even harder last week. In seven days, spot Ether ETFs lost over $787 million in AUM, which makes this week the most painful for the segment ever.

Since Ethereum spot ETFs were launched in July 2024, its ecosystem has not been hit by such a massive liquidity outflow.

Bitcoin OI stuck in $79-$85 billion corridor for seven weeks

At the same time, this might be just a rebalance since spot ETH ETFs investors injected $2.8 billion in liquidity during the second week of August.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s open interest — the total USD-denominated value of all derivatives contracts that are not closed yet — has been stagnating since July.

As of printing time, the aggregated Bitcoin futures OI sits slightly below $80 billion in equivalent. In the last couple of weeks, it has remained almost unchanged. After reaching its peak at $88 billion on July 16, 2025, it started slowly declining.

Binance (BNB), the largest cryptocurrency exchange by trading volume and user count, is responsible for $14 billion out of this value.

For Ethereum futures, the net open interest has been sitting at $60 billion in equivalent for three weeks in a row. As such, markets might be confused about performance prospects for both assets.

Bitcoin (BTC) to $185,000? Here’s what Tephra Digital BTC/M2 model says

Despite sending mixed signals to its audience, Bitcoin (BTC) can still expand its rally over $150,000 per BTC easily. As a recent model by Tephra Digital asset management firm demonstrates, Bitcoin (BTC) closely follows the M2 metric — the aggregated volume of the U.S. money supply.

The analyst noticed that Bitcoin (BTC) follows M2 and gold price fluctuations with the lag of 100-200 days. Given that fact, the global cryptocurrency community should be prepared for an extremely bullish Q4, 2025.

Based on these assumptions, Bitcoin’s (BTC) price can naturally reach $167,000-$185,000 by the end of this year.

Bitcoin’s (BTC) price set its current ATH at $124,457 on Aug. 14, 2025. As of now, it is trading 11% below the record price.

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For a long period, Bitcoin investors have been demonstrating a waning activity. With BTC’s price facing significant downward pressure due to the heightened volatility in the broader crypto market, this negative performance may extend, creating a bearish environment for the flagship asset in the upcoming weeks or months.

Whale Transactions In Bitcoin Stay On The Sidelines

A notable negative persistent action has been spotted among large Bitcoin investors or whales. Advanced on-chain data and investment platform Alphractal revealed the trend in whale activity in a recent post on the X (formerly Twitter) platform.

Alphractal reported that Bicoin’s whale activity has seen a noticeable slowdown. After examining the BTC Whale Transactions metric, data shows that the volume of large transactions is still at low levels, suggesting a period of reduced high-stake trading activity.

The slowdown implies that large holders are becoming more cautious in light of the market’s current state, which is resulting in less liquidity. While the ongoing inactivity suggests high uncertainty, it also indicates strategic accumulation by big investors.

It is worth noting that transfers valued at more than $100,000 are usually considered whale transactions. Whales’ overall transactions on the blockchain have been low and steady for the past 2 years, particularly since November 2022. However, the stagnation is far from what was seen from the end of 2020 to the end of 2022.

Considering the development, it appears that Bitcoin‘s current cycle has not yet reached the true euphoria that the asset witnessed in the past. In the meantime, examining the behavior of the large transactions is crucial to determine whether there is substantial demand for BTC.

Lately, demand for BTC among large investors has been gradually picking up pace in the last few weeks. Data shows a sustained bullish sentiment as whales have accumulated BTC for over a month, reflecting renewed confidence in the asset’s long-term potential.

Within a month, these investors purchased about 65,000 BTC in spite of the recent heightened volatility in the market. During significant waning market conditions, persistent accumulations by whales mean that investors are capitalizing on the ongoing drop in BTC’s price.

Such development is significant for Bitcoin’s market dynamics since whale accumulation has preceded upside price movements. Should the trend continue, it could lead to robust buying pressure that would lay the groundwork for BTC’s next price move.

BTC Holders Approaches Its All-time High

Another positive development during this volatile period is the rise in BTC’s overall holders. Santiment highlighted that Bitcoin’s total number of holders surpassed 54.71 million, which is within 0.018% of the all-time high of 54.72 million achieved on January 19, 2025.

BTC’s network expansion and the division of larger wallets into smaller ones are considered to be partly responsible for this. However, this does show that the network is still growing, even after over 8 weeks of intense price fluctuation following the all-time high of $109,000.

Featured image from Unsplash, chart from Tradingview.com

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