Stage – Earlybirds Invest https://earlybirdsinvest.com Latest Crypto News Mon, 08 Sep 2025 21:59:23 +0000 en-US hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=6.9.7 https://i0.wp.com/earlybirdsinvest.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/cropped-New-Project-2024-12-17T235703.455.png?fit=32%2C32&ssl=1 Stage – Earlybirds Invest https://earlybirdsinvest.com 32 32 240146708 Central bank easing and subdued sentiment indicators indicate crypto bull cycle still in early stage https://earlybirdsinvest.com/central-bank-easing-and-subdued-sentiment-indicators-indicate-crypto-bull-cycle-still-in-early-stage/ https://earlybirdsinvest.com/central-bank-easing-and-subdued-sentiment-indicators-indicate-crypto-bull-cycle-still-in-early-stage/#respond Mon, 08 Sep 2025 21:59:22 +0000 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/central-bank-easing-and-subdued-sentiment-indicators-indicate-crypto-bull-cycle-still-in-early-stage/

Julien Bittel, head of macro research at Global Macro Investor, argued that the bull run remains in its early stages based on comprehensive economic indicators.

In a Sept. 8 analysis shared via X, Bittel counters widespread “peak cycle” sentiment in crypto markets, challenging late-cycle narratives by examining traditional economic markers.

Peak sentiment

Classic late-cycle economies typically feature extreme manufacturing sentiment with ISM readings around 60, elevated services sentiment, high homebuilder confidence, strong consumer and worker confidence, bullish investor sentiment, and accelerating wage growth.

Bittel said current data paints a different picture. When scoring inputs from ISM, NAHB, NFIB, BLS, AAII, and The Conference Board into a composite sentiment measure, US economic sentiment remains “very subdued” and far from euphoric late-cycle extremes.

He stated:

“This does not look like an above-trend late-cycle economy. It looks much more like an early-cycle economy trying to build momentum.”

Central bank policy provides additional support for this thesis. Nearly 90% of central banks globally are cutting rates, creating what Bittel describes as “extraordinary” conditions and “a massive tailwind for the business cycle” on a forward-looking basis.

Oil prices reinforce the early-cycle argument, trading nearly 20% below trend and continuing to fall. This represents easing financial conditions rather than the tightening typically associated with late-cycle dynamics.

Historically, oil prices running 50% above trend have signaled recession since the early 1970s.

Bull cycle in early stages

Temporary Help Services data shows “early-cycle vibes” with rising growth from profoundly negative levels, indicating economic recovery rather than rollover.

According to Bittel, late-cycle periods typically feature positive year-on-year growth that’s slowing, reflecting an overheated economy losing steam.

He attributes rising unemployment to the lagging nature of jobs data, calling it “a six-month look in the rear-view mirror.”

Businesses first increase overtime hours and temporary workers before committing to expensive full-time hires with benefits and pensions.

Bittel also frames current conditions as “early-cycle” transitioning to “mid-cycle,” describing the progression as “Macro Spring” (growth up, inflation down), moving toward “Macro Summer” (growth up, inflation up).

He concluded that this macro perspective challenges the prevailing crypto market sentiment, which suggests that the bull cycle has peaked. Instead, he assessed that the current economic conditions support continued expansion rather than contraction.

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Analyst Forecasts XRP To Stage Amazon-Like Rally To $200 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/analyst-forecasts-xrp-to-stage-amazon-like-rally-to-200/ https://earlybirdsinvest.com/analyst-forecasts-xrp-to-stage-amazon-like-rally-to-200/#respond Sun, 07 Sep 2025 07:48:20 +0000 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/analyst-forecasts-xrp-to-stage-amazon-like-rally-to-200/

XRP has drawn plenty of comparisons over the past few months, but one analyst believes the best way to understand its future is to look at Amazon’s past. Nick Anderson, better known as BULLRUNNERS on the social media platform X, says XRP is going through the same kind of consolidation Amazon faced in 2010, and it still has the potential to rally to $200. The key difference, however, is the patience investors will need before this rally can happen.

Related Reading

Amazon’s Breakout Holds The Clues For XRP

XRP’s price action in the past seven days has been highlighted by a trading range between $2.8 and $2.9. The cryptocurrency now seems stuck within this range, but it has managed to hold above $2.8 for the meantime. Interestingly, Anderson likened this consolidation move to a similar retest of a previous high by the Amazon stock (AMZN) back in 2010. 

In his post, Anderson highlighted how Amazon stock spent roughly 3,800 days consolidating after the dot-com crash before finally breaking past its previous high and entering a meteoric run. However, before entering into this meteoric run, it consolidated for a few months in 2010 just after breaking above its previous high during the dot-com bubble. 

According to Anderson, XRP’s current structure is tracing out a massive cup and handle that mirrors this exact Amazon stock setup, with the cryptocurrency now using past highs as support in the same way Amazon did. Just as Amazon transformed once it cleared resistance, Anderson believes XRP could follow a similar breakout trajectory that could eventually push its price above $100, and possibly as high as $200.

XRPUSD currently trading at $2.8. Chart: TradingView

Short-Term Expectations Between $5 And $30

In his assessment, Anderson noted that this predicted rally to $200 might take many years to come to fruition. Comparing today’s price of around $2.80 to Amazon’s $5 launch point before its monumental rally, this would probably be the best time for XRP investors to accumulate for the long term. For younger investors, holding XRP for the next 10 to 15 years could prove transformative, with as little as 10,000 XRP amounting to $1 million in value if the cryptocurrency eventually climbs to $100.

Despite his long-term forecast, Anderson is more cautious about what XRP might achieve this cycle. He stated that while a push to $100 in the near term would be “absolutely insane”, a more realistic target for this bull run could lie between $5 and $30. After that, he expects another correction to set in before the rally resumes sometime around the end of the decade. 

Related Reading

Anderson also left room for a more explosive scenario, noting that XRP could deliver what he called a “giga rally” if liquidity rushes into the market faster than expected. This is based on the growing anticipation around the adoption of ISO 20022 by the US Federal Reserve.

At the time of writing, XRP is trading at $2.81.

Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView

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Ripple's Larsen to Share Stage With Top Restaurateur at Key XRP Event: What's Coming? https://earlybirdsinvest.com/ripples-larsen-to-share-stage-with-top-restaurateur-at-key-xrp-event-whats-coming/ https://earlybirdsinvest.com/ripples-larsen-to-share-stage-with-top-restaurateur-at-key-xrp-event-whats-coming/#respond Wed, 27 Aug 2025 09:51:11 +0000 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/ripples-larsen-to-share-stage-with-top-restaurateur-at-key-xrp-event-whats-coming/

Ripple continues to unveil keynote speakers for the upcoming Ripple Swell event scheduled for November this year, stirring up expectations in the XRP community.

In a recent tweet, Ripple announced Cofounder and Executive Chairman Chris Larsen as a keynote speaker at the event. This is significant as the Ripple cofounder has not been in the public eye much relative to other Ripple executives, hence sparking interest in the XRP community. This is evident as an XRP community X user expressed delight at the announcement, noting that the Ripple executive chairman had not been seen at most events in quite some time.

Adding further speculation is the fact that the Ripple cofounder will share the stage with celebrity Spanish-American chef and restaurateur José Andrés. The duo will share the keynote stage at the Ripple Swell event, sparking anticipation in the XRP community as to what might be ahead as the two industry leaders exchange ideas.

Expectations rising

The Ripple Swell event, a two-day event scheduled for Nov. 4 and 5, will mark the convergence of the most influential voices shaping finance and crypto, allowing industry leaders to exchange innovative ideas.

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Title news

At the close of July, Ripple unveiled Nasdaq Chair and Chief Executive Officer, Adena Friedman as a keynote speaker at the upcoming Ripple Swell event.

August remains significant for Ripple as it marked new collaborations as well as the official closure of the Ripple-SEC lawsuit.

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Stellar Lumens Holds Firm as Network Growth Set Stage for Breakout https://earlybirdsinvest.com/stellar-lumens-holds-firm-as-network-growth-set-stage-for-breakout/ https://earlybirdsinvest.com/stellar-lumens-holds-firm-as-network-growth-set-stage-for-breakout/#respond Sat, 16 Aug 2025 10:07:57 +0000 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/stellar-lumens-holds-firm-as-network-growth-set-stage-for-breakout/

Stellar lumens (XLM) traded in a tight range over the past 24 hours, holding between $0.42 and $0.43 from Aug. 14 at 15:00 UTC through Aug. 15 at 14:00 UTC.

The token saw measured gains before late-session profit-taking pushed prices 1% lower to $0.43 in the final hour of trade. CoinDesk Data’s technical analysis model suggests XLM is approaching a key resistance level at $0.50, with a breakout potentially targeting $0.60–$0.77, backed by strengthening network fundamentals and growing institutional participation.

On-chain metrics continue to paint a bullish picture. Stellar’s active enterprise wallets hit an all-time high of 9.69 million, with 5,000–6,000 new institutional addresses added daily.

Total value locked on the network jumped 80% to $150 million, reflecting a surge in corporate adoption. Traders are closely watching the $0.47–$0.50 zone, a potential trigger point for institutional short covering that could fuel the next leg higher.

Despite early pressure pushing XLM down to $0.42 in the first six hours of the session, buyers consistently emerged at that level, signaling strong institutional support.

Overnight, the token staged a steady recovery, retesting $0.43 before consolidating. In the final 60 minutes, heavy selling briefly drove prices back to $0.42, but a swift rebound and lighter volume suggest selling pressure may be easing, leaving room for renewed upside momentum.

XLM/USD (TradingView)

XLM/USD (TradingView)

Corporate Technical Indicators Signal Consolidation Phase
  • Stellar established robust institutional support at $0.42 zone with consistent corporate buyer emergence during early session decline.
  • Cryptocurrency tested resistance near $0.43 during overnight institutional trading before consolidating in upper price range.
  • Trading volume peaked at 71.43 million during initial six-hour decline, indicating significant institutional participation and interest.
  • Technical formation approaches critical resistance at $0.50 level, representing key institutional breakout threshold.
  • Corporate momentum indicators suggest potential advancement toward $0.60-$0.77 institutional price target zones.
  • Diminishing trading volume in final hour signals exhausted institutional selling pressure and market stabilization potential.

Disclaimer: Parts of this article were generated with the assistance from AI tools and reviewed by our editorial team to ensure accuracy and adherence to our standards. For more information, see CoinDesk’s full AI Policy.

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NFTs stage comeback with $530M in July trades, flipping DeFi user activity https://earlybirdsinvest.com/nfts-stage-comeback-with-530m-in-july-trades-flipping-defi-user-activity/ https://earlybirdsinvest.com/nfts-stage-comeback-with-530m-in-july-trades-flipping-defi-user-activity/#respond Fri, 08 Aug 2025 07:08:40 +0000 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/nfts-stage-comeback-with-530m-in-july-trades-flipping-defi-user-activity/

The NFT market saw a remarkable resurgence in July, outpacing DeFi in terms of user activity, according to an Aug. 7 DappRadar report.

The shift marks a significant milestone and could indicate that NFTs are once again capturing the public’s attention following significant lull that has lasted since their fall in the 2022 bear market.

NFT Flips DeFi
NFT Flips DeFi User Activity (Source: DappRadar)

NFTs volume surge in July

DappRadar data showed that NFT trading volume surged by 96%, reaching $530 million in July. However, the total number of transactions fell by 4%, with only 5 million NFTs changing hands during the month.

The trend reveals a clear shift in buyer behavior, with fewer NFTs changing hands but selling for significantly higher prices. In fact, the average NFT sale price more than doubled, rising from $52 in June to $105 in July.

Platforms catering to power users and creators saw the most growth during the period. Blur accounted for as much as 80% of Ethereum-based NFT trading volume, driven by professional traders and its Blend lending feature.

NFT Trading Volume And Sales Count
NFT Trading Volume And Sales Count in 2025 (Source: DappRadar)

Meanwhile, OpenSea, the largest NFT marketplace, remained the most active in daily user count, with approximately 27,000 traders, thanks to its long-tail listings and multichain support.

Meanwhile, Zora, a platform built for creators on the Coinbase-backed Base network, gained momentum with its Layer 2 solution and native ZORA token, which reduced NFT minting costs.

DappRadar concluded that these numbers show the significant evolution within the NFT landscape from the early market hype to the increasing utility of these digital assets.

According to the blockchain firm, the space is no longer limited to art and digital collectibles. Instead, it has expanded into practical use cases such as digital identity, event ticketing, gaming, and real-world asset tokenization.

DeFi grows too

While NFTs made waves in July, DeFi also continued to experience impressive growth. DappRadar reported that the total value of assets locked (TVL) in DeFi surged by over 30%, reaching $259 billion by the end of the month.

Notably, the sector reached a new all-time high of $270 billion on July 28, driven by growing user demand and fresh liquidity injection across lending, trading, and tokenized assets.

Meanwhile, a standout trend in DeFi came from tokenized stocks, with wallet interactions increasing from approximately 1,600 to over 90,000. This surge contributed to a 220% increase in the market cap of tokenized stocks, signaling that real-world assets (RWAs) are gaining substantial traction.

Tope DeFi Protocols
Top DeFi Blockchain Networks by TVL (Source: DappRadar)

Across assets, Ethereum continued to lead DeFi, commanding $166 billion in TVL, far surpassing Solana’s $23 billion.

ETH’s significant rise can be attributed to a nearly 60% price surge in July, likely driven by positive regulatory developments, alongside staking rewards reaching 29.4% APY.

On Solana, Hyperliquid emerged as a key player, accounting for 35% of blockchain revenue in July. The platform saw rising demand for derivatives and now processes over 60% of 24-hour perpetual trading volume, with $15.3 billion in open interest and $5.1 billion in USDC bridging.

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Little Pepe’s Meme Coin Presale Reaches $16,475,000 With Stage 9 Now Sold Out https://earlybirdsinvest.com/little-pepes-meme-coin-presale-reaches-16475000-with-stage-9-now-sold-out/ https://earlybirdsinvest.com/little-pepes-meme-coin-presale-reaches-16475000-with-stage-9-now-sold-out/#respond Thu, 07 Aug 2025 06:19:54 +0000 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/little-pepes-meme-coin-presale-reaches-16475000-with-stage-9-now-sold-out/

August 7th, 2025 – Dubai, UAE


class=”ql-align-justify”>Little Pepe has officially crossed a major milestone, with Stage 9 of its presale selling out after raising $16,475,000 in total.

The Ethereum-based meme coin has recorded widespread online engagement as it proceeds through the final phases of its presale. To date, 11.25? billion LILPEPE tokens have been allocated, with participation continuing across multiple channels.

According to the Little Pepe team, the level of participation in its presale reflects a broader shift within the cryptocurrency sector, where culturally driven, community-led tokens are being developed in parallel with technical frameworks designed for long-term utility. The team views this combination of cultural relevance and blockchain infrastructure as a key factor in the evolving landscape of meme coin projects. Little Pepe is displaying the identical early symptoms of success that surrounded meme coin giants in their early days—but with a clearer roadmap and far greater engaged surroundings.

Underlying Infrastructure Supports Meme Coin Format

At a glance, Little Pepe fits the meme coin mold—funny frog memes, viral social posts, and a low entry price. But dig a little deeper, and the challenge begins to reveal a few serious fundamentals. Built on Ethereum, Little Pepe benefits from robust security, strong developer support, and seamless integration with existing DeFi tools. This makes it more than just a speculative gamble—it’s a meme coin with real infrastructure behind it.

What’s more, the Little Pepe team has continuously added to their roadmap goals, achieving presale targets quicker than expected. Their advertising technique has been laser-based, attractive meme groups throughout Telegram and X (previously Twitter), at the same time as concurrently attracting new buyers from DeFi and Ethereum ecosystems.

According to the Little Pepe team, each presale stage has sold out more quickly than the last, which they view as a sign of growing momentum around the project. The team notes increased attention from both early participants and new users as the presale moves toward its final stages and potential exchange activity.

Community Growth Cited as Key Driver

A meme coin is only as strong as its community—and Little Pepe has one of the fastest-growing supporter bases in the space right now. Thousands of followers across social platforms are actively engaging with the brand, sharing memes, participating in AMAs, and even creating fan content.

According to the project team, community engagement has played a significant role in the pace at which each presale stage has concluded. The team reports participation from a broad range of online users—including influencers, traders, and NFT collectors—who they believe are drawn to both the cultural appeal of the project and its perceived long-term potential.

What Comes Next?

With Stage 9 now completed, the presale enters its final phases. The team will set a higher token price for the upcoming stages, as defined in the presale structure. Participation is expected to continue as the project progresses, though no specific exchange listings have been confirmed at this time.

While no specific exchange listings have been announced, the team has indicated that discussions are ongoing. Any future listings could improve token accessibility and market visibility, though timelines and platforms have not been confirmed. Broader market conditions, including interest in meme coins, may also influence how such developments unfold.

A Meme Coin With 2025 Potential

Meme coins continue to represent an active segment of the cryptocurrency market, often characterized by the intersection of thematic branding, tokenomics, and online engagement. The Little Pepe project incorporates several of these elements, including community-focused initiatives and Ethereum-based infrastructure, as part of its broader strategy.

As 2025 approaches, the Little Pepe team views the project’s $16 million+ presale raise and expanding community engagement as indicators of growing market relevance. They consider these developments signs that the project is gaining momentum within the broader meme coin space, as discussions around its progress continue across online platforms.

About Little Pepe

Little Pepe is a next-gen Layer 2 blockchain designed to merge meme culture with high-speed, low-cost decentralized infrastructure. Built for scalability, security, and accessibility, Little Pepe supports EVM-compatible applications and is powered by means of the LILPEPE token. The project’s mission is to create a meme coin environment wherein utility meets virality, empowering users through cutting-edge technology and lightning-fast transactions.

For more information:

Website: https://littlepepe.com/

Telegram: https://t.me/littlepepetoken

Twitter: https://x.com/littlepepetoken

Contact

James Stephen
media@littlepepe.com

This content is sponsored and should be regarded as promotional material. Opinions and statements expressed herein are those of the author and do not reflect the opinions of The Daily Hodl. The Daily Hodl is not a subsidiary of or owned by any ICOs, blockchain startups or companies that advertise on our platform. Investors should do their due diligence before making any high-risk investments in any ICOs, blockchain startups or cryptocurrencies. Please be advised that your investments are at your own risk, and any losses you may incur are your responsibility.

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Ledger Recovery Key Takes Center Stage in Latest BitDegree Mission https://earlybirdsinvest.com/ledger-recovery-key-takes-center-stage-in-latest-bitdegree-mission/ https://earlybirdsinvest.com/ledger-recovery-key-takes-center-stage-in-latest-bitdegree-mission/#respond Fri, 01 Aug 2025 14:18:21 +0000 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/ledger-recovery-key-takes-center-stage-in-latest-bitdegree-mission/

The leading platform for Web3 learning, BitDegree, has launched a new Mission titled Crypto Backup Made Easy With Ledger Recovery Key.

Featuring the Ledger Recovery Key, this latest Mission offers up to 1,500 Bits to users who complete all Mission rounds.

The Ledger Recovery Key is a PIN-protected smart card that stores a complete copy of a 24-word Secret Recovery Phrase. It keeps the data offline using a certified Secure Element chip.

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Through NFC, it connects with supported Ledger devices such as Ledger Stax and Ledger Flex to enable backup, recovery, management, or updates of the recovery phrase, without relying on cloud storage.

In addition to earning Bits, users also have a chance to win a share of the 100 USDC
USDC


$0.9948

prize pool via the Lucky Draw. To qualify, users must complete the Mission before September 1, 2025.

Ten Lucky Draw winners will be selected, each receiving 10 USDC. Rewards will be distributed within two weeks after the event ends.

The higher a user’s Degree, the greater their chances of winning the Lucky Draw. Degrees can be increased by earning more Bits. To collect Bits, users can participate in other Missions and complete bonus tasks, including inviting a friend and following BitDegree on X.

Previously, BitDegree launched Owners Club: Skill-Based Horse Racing, NFTs & More, where users could earn up to 2,500 Bits along with other rewards.

Having completed a Master’s degree in Economics, Politics, and Cultures of the East Asia region, Aaron has written scientific papers analyzing the differences between Western and Collective forms of capitalism in the post-World War II era.
With close to a decade of experience in the FinTech industry, Aaron understands all of the biggest issues and struggles that crypto enthusiasts face. He’s a passionate analyst who is concerned with data-driven and fact-based content, as well as that which speaks to both Web3 natives and industry newcomers.
Aaron is the go-to person for everything and anything related to digital currencies. With a huge passion for blockchain & Web3 education, Aaron strives to transform the space as we know it, and make it more approachable to complete beginners.
Aaron has been quoted by multiple established outlets, and is a published author himself. Even during his free time, he enjoys researching the market trends, and looking for the next supernova.


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Weakening of US Dollar Is ‘Good News’ for Bitcoin at This Stage of the Cycle, Says Analyst Jason Pizzino – But There’s a Catch https://earlybirdsinvest.com/weakening-of-us-dollar-is-good-news-for-bitcoin-at-this-stage-of-the-cycle-says-analyst-jason-pizzino-but-theres-a-catch/ https://earlybirdsinvest.com/weakening-of-us-dollar-is-good-news-for-bitcoin-at-this-stage-of-the-cycle-says-analyst-jason-pizzino-but-theres-a-catch/#respond Fri, 18 Jul 2025 15:38:16 +0000 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/weakening-of-us-dollar-is-good-news-for-bitcoin-at-this-stage-of-the-cycle-says-analyst-jason-pizzino-but-theres-a-catch/

Cryptocurrency analyst and trader Jason Pizzino is saying that Bitcoin (BTC) has more upside potential amid a weakening US dollar.

In a new strategy session, Pizzino tells his 353,000 YouTube subscribers that the US dollar is likely to experience “further downside,” a factor that will benefit the price of Bitcoin.

“I think this is good news for Bitcoin at this stage of the cycle…

I’m counting on the US dollar continuing down. And in this stage of the cycle, where Bitcoin still heading up, I would still count on Bitcoin going up with the weakness in the US dollar.”

Pizzino also says the stock market’s current setup, as reflected in the S&P 500 index, is another bullish catalyst for Bitcoin.

“Now, we’re seeing further upside with the S&P 500. Yes, it hasn’t hit a new all-time high today, but the trend is very much up. And generally when it breaks out of the consolidation, especially as it runs into a new fresh all-time high and runs on a clear trend, it’s Bitcoin’s time to also run nice and clean.”

The cryptocurrency analyst and trader, however, says Bitcoin is entering the “final stages of the bull market.” According to Pizzino, the conditions that trigger a bearish reversal are already forming.

“And in this final leg of the market into these highs, still everything looking quite bullish. We’re obviously seeing more companies get into Bitcoin, becoming ‘Bitcoin treasury companies.’

Essentially dead companies with their stock price going up because they hold Bitcoin. And Bitcoin is going up. So don’t necessarily make the profits that the stock price suggests, it’s that they hold an asset with that value going up.

Is there anything wrong with that? Not necessarily. But it does lead to further leverage in the system, which can and generally does unfold at the end of the cycle.”

 

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Disclaimer: Opinions expressed at The Daily Hodl are not investment advice. Investors should do their due diligence before making any high-risk investments in Bitcoin, cryptocurrency or digital assets. Please be advised that your transfers and trades are at your own risk, and any losses you may incur are your responsibility. The Daily Hodl does not recommend the buying or selling of any cryptocurrencies or digital assets, nor is The Daily Hodl an investment advisor. Please note that The Daily Hodl participates in affiliate marketing.

Generated Image: Midjourney

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21Shares says June payroll surprise sets soft-landing stage that could catalyze Bitcoin beyond $200k https://earlybirdsinvest.com/21shares-says-june-payroll-surprise-sets-soft-landing-stage-that-could-catalyze-bitcoin-beyond-200k/ https://earlybirdsinvest.com/21shares-says-june-payroll-surprise-sets-soft-landing-stage-that-could-catalyze-bitcoin-beyond-200k/#respond Thu, 03 Jul 2025 21:27:15 +0000 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/21shares-says-june-payroll-surprise-sets-soft-landing-stage-that-could-catalyze-bitcoin-beyond-200k/

June US employment data exceeded forecasts and sets a macro backdrop that could send Bitcoin (BTC) past $200,000, according to a research note from Matt Mena, crypto research strategist at 21Shares.

The Labor Department reported that non-farm payrolls increased by 147,000 in June, surpassing the consensus estimate of 110,000, while the unemployment rate fell to 4.1% from 4.2%. Additionally, it came below the estimated 4.3%.

Mena writes that the numbers show “labor market strength without overheating,” a mix that supports the Federal Reserve’s slow-landing narrative. 

Futures tied to the federal funds rate now fully price a 25-basis-point cut at the September policy meeting, and the CME FedWatch Tool assigns roughly a 75% chance to that outcome.

With headline inflation tracking 2.4%, Mena argues that the Fed “has room to act,” primarily as political pressure builds. The pressure comes mainly from President Donald Trump’s letter urging a return to a 1% terminal rate.

Liquidity channels and market response

Rate-cut expectations are filtering into risk assets. Mena notes that S&P 500 futures are “flirting with all-time highs” near 6,300, while Bitcoin trades between $108,000 and $110,000 on July 3 and “waits for a catalyst.” 

As of press time, BTC is priced at $109,518.14, representing a nearly 1% increase in the past 24 hours.

Mena noted that Bitcoin’s share of total crypto market value has slipped to 62%, down 3% in recent days. He views this as an early sign of capital rotating into altcoins. 

He links the shift to greater liquidity prospects with congressional progress on the Market Structure Bill and the GENIUS Act, legislation he says could help dampen regulatory uncertainty and widen institutional participation.

Path to $200,000

Mena connected the data chain with a broader context that can propel Bitcoin towards the $200,000 threshold. He mentioned that steady but non-inflationary job growth paves the way for Fed easing, lower policy rates, and liquidity release. 

Historically, fresh capital is first allocated to Bitcoin and then to altcoins. In that sequence, he writes, “the runway is forming” for a push through the previous cycle’s high. 

The strategist sees the $200,000 mark as “a decisive breakout level” rather than a cycle peak, adding that altcoins could outperform once Bitcoin establishes a new range.

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Weakening dollar and M2 influx set stage for possible Bitcoin surge in H2 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/weakening-dollar-and-m2-influx-set-stage-for-possible-bitcoin-surge-in-h2/ https://earlybirdsinvest.com/weakening-dollar-and-m2-influx-set-stage-for-possible-bitcoin-surge-in-h2/#respond Wed, 02 Jul 2025 14:58:00 +0000 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/weakening-dollar-and-m2-influx-set-stage-for-possible-bitcoin-surge-in-h2/

The United States has reached a new milestone in money circulation, with the M2 money supply climbing to an all-time high.

M2, a key measure that includes cash, checking accounts, savings, and money market deposits, hit $21.94 trillion by the end of May. Year over year, M2 has grown by 4.5%.

US M2 Money
US M2 Money Chart (Source: X/The Kobeissi Letter)

According to analysts from The Kobeissi Letter, this marks the 19th consecutive monthly increase and surpasses the previous peak of $21.86 trillion recorded in March 2022.

Even more telling is the inflation-adjusted M2, which rose 2.1% over the same period. This marks the most significant inflation-adjusted increase in over two years. Since 2020, the US money supply has surged by nearly $7 trillion, representing an increase of roughly 45%.

Meanwhile, the sharp rise in liquidity comes at a time of historic weakness for the US dollar. The Kobeissi Letter notes that the Dollar Index dropped by 10.8% during the first half of 2025.

US Dollar Index
US Dollar Index Chart (Source: X/The Kobeissi Letter)

This represents the worst H1 performance since the collapse of the Bretton Woods system in 1973 and the weakest six-month stretch since 2009.

Analysts say this continuous decline reflects the dollar’s eroding purchasing power and signals long-term structural issues.

What does this mean for Bitcoin?

For the crypto market, especially Bitcoin, this environment could prove pivotal in attracting more capital to the industry.

The rising M2 level is often bullish for the top crypto because it indicates abundant liquidity in the system. That liquidity often finds its way into higher-risk assets, like Bitcoin, when traditional stores of value begin to falter.

While it remains uncertain whether this momentum will spur a continued Bitcoin rally, many investors believe the conditions favor the bellwether digital asset.

Prior to Bitcoin’s recent sideways movements, analysts on Crypto Twitter were sharing screenshots of the M2 supply rise in 2025 (lagged by 90 days) alongside Bitcoin charts almost daily. However, while M2 has continued on its upward trajectory, Bitcoin has stalled recently.

Bitcoin could benefit from a renewed wave of capital seeking returns beyond fiat currencies if the trend realigns.

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