01 September Bitfinex alpha | BTC slip, alt stagnates

Bitcoin has now been below $110,000, below its peak in January 2025 $109,590, extending the cut from its all-time high of $123,640 to over 13%. Although this failure has technical weight, the historic drawdown pattern and seasonality suggest that the market is in fact in the later stages of its correction phase, with $93-95,000 emerging as the most likely zone of cyclical floors. On-chain data confirms this: current short-term holders have a realised price of $108,900 serving as a key pivot, and sustained transactions below this level could further fuel the downside. Exchange order flow metrics such as cumulative volume delta also emphasize spot emotion neutralization, reinforcing the view that buyers are returning until a stronger catalyst emerges.

Altcoins are getting worse, reflecting a wide range of risk-off behaviors. ETH has retreated 14% after temporarily posting a new ATH, while XRP, ADA and Doge have seen double-digit losses. However, institutional demand is resilient under the surface, with ETH’s Treasury and corporate buyers continuing to expand their holdings. Intermediate names like CROs and Pumps outperformed through story-driven gatherings, but this rotation came at the expense of weaker names rather than new influx.

What is emerging is the market capitalization of stagnant Altcoin, and Alts’ movements signal capital turnover rather than expansion. September could mark a cyclical low point before structural drivers reaffirm Q4 recovery as ETF influx was seasonally muted and speculative excesses were flushed.

In the last week of August, US economic data presented complex photos for policymakers ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting in September. Consumer spending in July rose 0.5%, the strongest in four months, but inflationary pressures remained rising, with core PCE moving 2.9% year-on-year. At the same time, job creation slowed to 35,000 a month, but an updated benchmark from the St. Louis Fed suggests that there are fewer new jobs needed to maintain labour market stability. This recalibration lowers the policy easing threshold to tilt expectations for September’s interest rate cuts, despite inflation exceeding targets. GDP data added to complexity: While second quarter growth was revised to 3.3% and driven by strong intellectual property and equipment investments, regional surveys such as Chicago Business Barometer showed weaker business activities under the weight of tariffs and reduced reliability.

In addition to these macroeconomic changes, the development of regulations and crypto markets highlighted broader financial support for asset classes. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission reaffirmed the framework of the Foreign Trade Framework and made it clear that offshore exchanges can be re-entered into the US market under established rules. The adoption of digital assets has also accelerated, with BitMine Immersion Technology holding $88.2 billion in crypto and cash, pursuing its ambition to strengthen its position as the world’s largest Ethereum financing company and earning 5% of Ethereum’s total supply.

Meanwhile, El Salvador has advanced its sovereign Bitcoin strategy by spreading a $682 million reserve across multiple wallets to mitigate security risks, combining it with a public dashboard aimed at increasing transparency and positioning the country as a benchmark for national crypto governance.

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After a powerful breakout last week that pushed Bitcoin into a new all-time high of $118,667, the world’s leading cryptocurrency appears to be taking a breather. As of the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $117,953, slightly below its recent peak. The move followed a string of consecutive daily gains as bullish momentum swept across the crypto industry.

In a technical analysis shared on the TradingView platform, crypto analyst RLinda pointed out two scenarios that may play out over the coming days and weeks, depending on how Bitcoin reacts to nearby resistance and support levels.

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Support Zones Could Affect Bitcoin’s Next Big Move

RLinda’s technical analysis begins with identifying the significance of Bitcoin’s recent all-time high. Although Bitcoin has entered what seems to be a consolidation phase, there’s no confirmed top just yet. The market structure still favors bullish continuation, especially considering Bitcoin is just coming out of a prolonged two-month consolidation zone and entering a realization phase.

According to the 1-hour candlestick price chart, Bitcoin is currently trading just above a support area below $117,500. If Bitcoin fails to hold this zone, the leading cryptocurrency could kick off a cascade of corrections that could drive the price to $115,500, then potentially to $114,300, and even back to the previous all-time high of $111,800. 

Below that, the 0.5 and 0.705 Fibonacci levels around $113,031 and $111,960 respectively may act as temporary cushions. The last major defensive buy zone is around $110,400, where bulls may step in for a bounce. Basically, what this means is that if Bitcoin loses the support level at $115,500, it could slip back to $110,000 before encountering another strong buy support zone.

Image From TradingView: RLinda

Bitcoin To $125K, But It Must Breach Resistance First

On the other hand, Bitcoin can still push above $118,000 and increase to $125,000, but only under certain conditions. The condition of the rally’s continuation depends primarily on Bitcoin registering a decisive daily close above $118,400 and $118,900. In her words, a daily close above these price levels would hint at a “breakout of structure.” This, in turn, would confirm a transition from consolidation into another impulsive phase upward.

In essence, both the bearish and bullish outlooks depend on how Bitcoin reacts at any of the important zones, either support at $116,700 or resistance above $118,400 before making a directional move. However, it is important to note that the consolidation after last week’s rally could last for weeks or even months, much like we’ve seen in previous rallies this cycle.

According to the Long-Term Holder Net Unrealized Profit and Loss (NUPL) metric from Glassnode, Bitcoin’s current level of long-term profitability sentiment is at 0.69. This is notably below the 0.75 mark associated with euphoric market conditions, despite Bitcoin having just printed a new all-time high.

Image From X: Glassnode

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Bitcoin spent around 228 days above the 0.75 euphoria threshold in the previous bull market cycle. In contrast, this current cycle has only seen about 30 days above that level, which suggests long-term holders have not yet fully exited into profit and the leading cryptocurrency hasn’t reached overheated conditions.

Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView

Crypto Writer

Arslan Butt

Crypto Writer

Arslan Butt

About Author

Arslan Butt is an experienced webinar speaker, market analyst, and content writer specializing in crypto, forex, and commodities. He provides expert insights, trading strategies, and in-depth analysis…

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Last updated: 

July 5, 2025

XRP price is trading at $2.22 with a neutral bias, despite a minor 0.58% dip in the past 24 hours. The XRP/USD continues to trade over the critical $2.20 support level, bolstered by Ripple’s aggressive push into traditional finance. The company recently filed for a U.S. national banking charter with the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) and is also seeking a Federal Reserve master account.

If successful, these moves could integrate Ripple directly into the U.S. payments infrastructure — an unprecedented development for a crypto-native entity. The news has revived optimism among traders, who are eyeing a possible long-term surge to $10.

Meanwhile, institutional sentiment is improving, driven by:

• Ongoing speculation of an XRP ETF filing
• Ripple’s central bank digital currency (CBDC) partnerships across 50+ countries
• Broader adoption in cross-border payments infrastructure

These indicators are reinforcing a solid fundamental backdrop in XRP, even as cryptocurrency markets stays in a state of cautious consolidation.

Institutional Flows and ETF Rumours Fuel Speculative Targets

XRP’s demand among institutions is growing despite macro uncertainty. Ripple’s continued engagement with regulators, including its pro-CBDC positioning, has made the asset a top contender for ETF consideration.

Traders and analysts point to a scenario where ETF approval, combined with regulatory clarity and Ripple’s potential U.S. banking license, could propel XRP toward the $10 mark — a level once thought speculative but increasingly discussed.

• Banking License: May grant Ripple direct access to U.S. payment rails
• ETF Hopes: Could drive retail and institutional inflows
• CBDC Activity: Reinforces global relevance

While the immediate path to $10 isn’t guaranteed, many in the market view Ripple’s alignment with traditional finance as a catalyst that may gradually close the gap.

XRP Technical Outlook – Watching the $2.23 Barrier

From a technical perspective, XRP remains well-supported. The 2-hour chart shows the price respecting a rising trendline from the June 23 low, with the 50-SMA ($2.2281) and 100-SMA ($2.2079) forming a critical support zone.

XRP price prediction and its price action have been tightening into a wedge near $2.23, a resistance level that has been tested multiple times but not yet breached. Candlestick formations are neutral to indecisive, including spinning tops, signalling a volatility squeeze.

If bulls manage a breakout above $2.2340 on substantial volume, XRP could quickly target $2.2822 and $2.3400. Conversely, a break below $2.20 may invite a pullback toward $2.147 or even $2.084.

XRP Trade Setup – Breakout in the Making:

• Entry: Above $2.23 on bullish confirmation
• Targets: $2.2822 → $2.3400
• Stop-Loss: Below $2.20 trendline
• Bias: Bullish while above 100-SMA

With Ripple’s institutional alignment deepening and price holding above support, XRP remains one of the most closely watched altcoins in 2025.

Bitcoin Hyper Presale Surges Past $1.92M as Price Rise Nears

Bitcoin Hyper ($HYPER), the first Bitcoin-native Layer 2 powered by the Solana Virtual Machine (SVM), has surpassed $1.90 million in its public presale, with $1,927,122 raised out of a $2,373,526 target. The token is priced at $0.012125, with the next price tier expected within hours.

Designed to merge Bitcoin’s security with Solana’s speed, Bitcoin Hyper enables fast, low-cost smart contracts, dApps, and meme coin creation, all with seamless BTC bridging. The project is audited by Consult and engineered for scalability, trust, and simplicity.

The golden cross of meme appeal and real utility has made Bitcoin Hyper a Layer 2 contender to watch in 2025. With staking, a streamlined presale, and a full rollout expected by Q1, $HYPER is gaining serious traction.