This is a daily analysis by CoinDesk analyst and Chartered Market Technician Omkar Godbole.

Bitcoin BTC$107,620.56 has breached key support levels in a sign of increasing bearish momentum that suggests a risk of a slide to $100,000.

The leading cryptocurrency by market value fell 6.5% in August, ending the four-month winning streak as the U.S.-listed spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) bled $751 million, according to data source SoSoValue.

The recent price drop saw bitcoin break below several key support levels, including the Ichimoku cloud, and the 50-day and 100-day simple moving averages (SMAs). It also pierced crucial horizontal support zones formed by the May high of $111,965 and the December high of $109,364, according to the daily chart sourced from TradingView.

These breakdowns underscore growing market weakness, confirming a bearish shift in key momentum indicators such as the Guppy Multiple Moving Average (GMMA) and the MACD histogram.

The short-term exponential moving average (EMA) band of the GMMA (green) has crossed below the longer-term band (red), signaling a clear bearish momentum shift. Meanwhile, the weekly MACD histogram has dropped below zero, indicating a transition from a bullish to a bearish trend.

Together, these signals indicate a likelihood of a sustained sell-off, potentially driving the price down to the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at $101,366, and possibly to the $100,000 mark.

The negative technical outlook aligns with seasonal trends, which show September historically as a bearish month for bitcoin. Since 2013, BTC has delivered an average return of -3.49%, closing lower in eight of the past 12 September months, according to data from Coinglass.

As for bulls, overcoming the lower high of $113,510 set on Aug. 28 is crucial to negating the bearish outlook.

• Support: $105,240 (the 38.2% Fib retracement of the April-August rally), $101,366 (the 200-day SMA), $100,000.
• Resistance: $110,756 (the lower end of the Ichimoku cloud), $113,510 (the lower high), $115,938 (the 50-day SMA).

Shares of Super Micro Computer (SMCI -6.10%) were heading lower this week as a combination of a sell rating from Goldman Sachs and a broader sell-off in artificial intelligence (AI) stock, which weighed on the maker of AI servers.

According to data from S&P Global Market Intelligence, the stock was down 16.5% for the week as of 3:12 p.m. ET on Thursday.

Image source: Getty Images.

Is Super Micro Computer in trouble?

The market tends to heed ratings changes from Goldman Sachs more so than other investment banks and research firms, so it wasn’t surprising that the stock pulled back on the downgrade.

Goldman Sachs downgraded Supermicro to sell with a price target of $32, arguing that the risk/reward in the stock is now unfavorable. It also noted that competition in AI servers is heating up in response to Supermicro’s sales surging last year. Finally, it said that its gross margins, which are already low, could decline further due to new competition.

Supermicro stock fell as much as 6% on Monday, though it recovered most of those losses by the end of that session, as the broad market surged on hopes for easing trade war tensions.

However, two days later, Supermicro stock was falling, in line with the broad market partly because of President Donald Trump’s announcement of tariffs on foreign vehicle imports. AI stocks fell sharply as investors view that sector as being one of the most at risk of a recession.

What’s next for Supermicro

Super Micro Computer does seem to have put the earlier concerns about the delay in filing its annual report behind it, but the business still needs to perform in order for the stock to do well.

In addition to revenue growth, it’s key for the company to maintain or expand its already-narrow gross margin. In its second quarter, it reported a gross margin of just 11.8%, and operating income fell slightly.

Competition could already be weighing on the stock, though its growth is still strong. Supermicro looks well priced right now, but it will have to defend its market share and margins in order for the stock to be a winner.