Bitcoin reached a new all-time high above $124,000 early this morning, surpassing its previous peak set in July, while Ethereum approached $4,800, a level not seen since late 2021.

Both assets surpassing or reaching key historical thresholds creates market momentum, which is supported by macroeconomic expectations, regulatory changes, and derivatives positioning.

The latest surge coincided with increased probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, now priced at more than 80% in futures markets. Lower interest rates are generally seen as supportive for risk assets, and the combination of softening monetary policy with sustained institutional demand has been a consistent driver for crypto markets in 2025.

The current administration’s policy backdrop, which includes measures to allow 401(k) retirement plans to hold crypto and the passage of the stablecoin GENIUS Act, is also contributing to a favorable environment for digital assets.

Options data show traders targeting $126,000 in the near term for Bitcoin, with some positioning for $128,000 to $132,000 if momentum holds. This follows a year-to-date gain of roughly 33% for Bitcoin, which has also nearly doubled over the past 12 months. The recent price action saw Bitcoin break through multiple resistance levels, including $120,923 and $123,164, before hitting its new high.

Ethereum has advanced roughly 41% since January, climbing to about $4,780 on Thursday. The move brings it within reach of its all-time high of $4,800. Standard Chartered has set a $7,500 target for ETH within the next six months.

Macro conditions have been a major factor for both assets. Reuters reported that the dollar weakened as investors positioned for U.S. rate cuts, supporting risk assets broadly. For crypto markets, these developments add to a year marked by heavy exchange-traded fund inflows, expanded participation from traditional finance, and increased regulatory clarity in the U.S. Policy support and macro tailwinds have been reflected in heightened spot volumes and open interest across futures and options markets.

While the market outlook remains tied to the pace and scale of central bank easing, technical levels are closely watched. For Bitcoin, $125,000 is seen as immediate resistance, with further upside potential toward $132,000 if current conditions persist.

For Ethereum, $4,800 remains the key level to clear before a potential move into uncharted price discovery. Both assets are trading in zones last visited during prior market peaks, with on-chain data showing robust network activity accompanying the price moves.

Over the last few hours, a minor retracement has placed Bitcoin 1.7% below its new highest valuation, around $121,900. Ethereum remains at the threshold of matching its own record, just $50 away, marking a notable moment in the ongoing 2025 rally.

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Bitcoin remains trapped in a tight consolidation range that began over two weeks ago, fueling expectations of an imminent breakout or breakdown. The lack of decisive movement has created a state of market indecision, with neither bulls nor bears taking full control. Price continues to hover between key support and resistance levels, showing no strong signs of accumulation or distribution.

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According to new data from CryptoQuant, the Bitcoin Heat Macro Phase—a metric that reflects the overall temperature of the market—currently sits at a neutral level. This indicates that market conditions are balanced, with no clear dominance from buyers or sellers. Profit-taking remains moderate, ETF inflows have slowed, and long-term holder activity is stable, all of which support the view that the market is in a wait-and-see mode.

The current structure suggests that a major move is likely approaching. With volatility compressed and the market treading water, traders and investors are closely watching for a signal that will define the next leg. Whether Bitcoin breaks out toward new highs or rolls over into a correction, the coming days will be crucial in shaping the short-term trend and broader sentiment across the crypto landscape.

Bitcoin Heat Macro Phase Signals Neutral Market

Top analyst Axel Adler recently shared insights into the Bitcoin Heat Macro Phase—a metric that condenses several key market indicators into a single scalar value, offering a simplified yet powerful view of where Bitcoin stands in its broader macro cycle. The metric combines data points such as overvaluation assessments, profit-taking activity, long-term holder (LTH) selling pressure, and ETF inflows to gauge whether the market is overheated or entering a favorable accumulation zone.

When the Heat Macro Phase reaches high values near 50%, it typically signals that these components are at their upper historical bounds—suggesting an overheated market that may be nearing a distribution phase or a correction. Conversely, readings closer to 30% reflect cooler market conditions: lower profit-taking, modest ETF activity, and minimal LTH selling. These scenarios often indicate that the market is undervalued and ripe for accumulation.

Currently, the Bitcoin Heat Macro Phase sits at 44%, putting it squarely in the neutral zone. Adler explains that this level reflects a balanced market environment—neither overbought nor undervalued. There’s no clear dominance by bulls or bears. Profit-taking is beginning to accelerate, but it hasn’t reached a level that would suggest a broader exit is underway.

This mid-range reading aligns with Bitcoin’s recent price action, which has remained in a tight consolidation for over two weeks. As the metric hovers in neutral territory, it reinforces the idea that the next significant move—whether upward toward new highs or downward in a correction—will depend entirely on upcoming price behavior. For now, the Bitcoin Heat Macro Phase acts as a market barometer, signaling patience as investors wait for the next breakout or breakdown to confirm direction.

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BTC Price Action Details: Tight Consolidation

Bitcoin continues to consolidate between well-defined support and resistance levels, currently trading at $118,269.81 on the 12-hour chart. The price action has remained confined within a horizontal range, with upper resistance at $122,077 and strong support at $115,724. This range has persisted for over two weeks, reflecting a phase of indecision where neither bulls nor bears have asserted dominance.

The 50, 100, and 200 SMAs—located at $116,342, $111,334, and $106,668, respectively—are all trending upward, suggesting that the broader structure remains bullish. BTC is currently trading above all key moving averages, which are acting as dynamic support. However, volume has decreased significantly, indicating a lack of conviction from both sides of the market.

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The tightening structure suggests that a breakout is approaching. If buyers manage to push BTC above $122K with strong volume, the next leg higher toward new all-time highs could follow. On the other hand, a breakdown below $115K would invalidate the current setup and open the door to a deeper correction.

Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView

Tether, the issuer of the world’s largest stablecoin USDT, acquired 8,888 Bitcoin in the first quarter of 2025.

According to crypto analytics firm SpotOnChain, the purchase is worth approximately $735 million and raises Tether’s total Bitcoin holdings to 92,647 BTC, valued at around $7.64 billion.

The firm’s Bitcoin holdings now place it among the top six largest BTC wallets, and according to SpotOnChain, its estimated unrealized profit is $3.86 billion.

Tether has maintained a consistent Bitcoin acquisition strategy since May 2023, when it committed to allocating 15% of its quarterly profits to the top digital asset.

These purchases are typically made throughout the quarter and settled at the end. Onchain data reveals the firm has acquired the same amount, 8,888 BTC, each quarter since that announcement.

This strategy is part of a broader effort to diversify its reserves, which include gold, cash equivalents, and other short-term assets.

Tether’s expansion

Beyond growing its crypto reserves, Tether is also actively expanding into other industries.

On March 31, Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino revealed that the company is scaling its operations in artificial intelligence, telecommunications, and data infrastructure. According to him, the firm is currently hiring across these sectors.

Ardoino stressed that Tether aims to challenge legacy Web2 companies by building decentralized consumer-facing products powered by peer-to-peer technologies.

He stated:

“Tether’s portfolio of upcoming projects and products is gonna disrupt many legacy Web2 businesses. We focus on real world consumer apps decentralization through peer-to-peer technology.”

Last month, Tether acquired nearly 50 million shares in Adecoagro, a Latin American agribusiness, increasing its ownership to 70%. The firm operates in Argentina, Brazil, and Uruguay and focuses on sustainable agriculture and food production.

In addition, Tether secured a 30.4% stake in Italian media company Be Water through a €10 million investment involving both capital infusion and equity purchase.

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