Now, let’s look at the bigger picture for a sec.

Sure, Bitcoin’s been stalling lately, but:

It’s still smashing past all-time highs;

We have so much more institutional adoption;

We’re getting regulatory clarity;

BlackRock CEO Larry Fink says Bitcoin could hit $700K;

Bridgewater Associates CEO Ray Dalio recommends a 15% allocation, and some major advisors are going as high as 40%.

And yet… compared to 2021, this run feels way more low-key. Many people in finance still call Bitcoin a scam, complain about energy use, or say it’s useless.

Basically, the disconnect between what’s actually happening and how people are reacting is real.

Which is exactly what investing journalist Natalie Brunell and Luke Broyles from The Bitcoin Adviser talked about on a recent podcast.

Luke admitted he expected retail mania to start at $70K. Well, look at us now – Bitcoin’s almost twice that, but the reaction’s still giving crickets + tumbleweed.

And he thinks that even if Bitcoin hits $5M, many people will still argue it can’t go higher.

Because mass adoption isn’t an overnight switch – it’s a long grind.

But where could the real growth come from? Luke’s answer: debt.

The fiat system runs on borrowing – governments, companies, and regular people all use loans to keep the economy moving. And he thinks the real shift will happen when Bitcoin gets tied into those loan systems.

That means things like:

using Bitcoin in mortgages,

borrowing against home equity to get Bitcoin,

or companies taking out loans with Bitcoin as part of their balance sheet strategy.

Basically, Bitcoin wouldn’t just be something you buy – it would become something the credit system itself relies on.

Luke sees this as the real Trojan horse: Bitcoin gradually becoming collateral in global lending, much like Michael Saylor has already started doing at the corporate level.

And Luke takes it a step further: he thinks Bitcoin could actually do a better job than the assets debt usually goes into.

When new borrowing flows into housing, energy, or stocks, it makes prices climb and everyday people end up paying more. But if that borrowing is directed into Bitcoin instead, it creates demand without raising living costs.

Natalie summed it up by calling Bitcoin a kind of inflation shock absorber – something governments and businesses could use to manage debt pressures.

If that vision plays out, the next phase of Bitcoin’s rise may be less about hype cycles and more about becoming the backbone of global finance.

U.S. tech stocks came under pressure on Friday, driven by concerns about the rapid pace of investment in AI and a series of disappointing earnings reports in the semiconductor sector. The Nasdaq Composite fell 1.2%, closing out a week in which the tech-heavy index struggled to maintain recent highs.

Semiconductor sector hit hard

Among the notable tumblers, Marvell Technology plunged nearly 19%, resembling Bitcoin’s early days, after revealing that its data center revenue had failed to meet market expectations.

The stock was downgraded from “buy” to “neutral” by Bank of America in response to these earnings. Meanwhile, Nvidia, whose market capitalization makes it the largest listed semiconductor company globally, dropped 3.3% on Friday.

The company flagged ongoing uncertainty in its sales to China, largely due to U.S. export restrictions impacting its AI chips.

For the week, Nvidia shares fell 2.1%, marking their steepest weekly decline since May. Broader weakness in chipmakers dragged the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index to its lowest point since mid-April.

The S&P 500 also retreated, down 0.6% for its largest single-day drop of the month, though it still managed to finish August up 1.9%. The tech stocks selling is likely attributed to investors taking profits near month-end, especially after a hot August when technology shares led markets to record levels.

Tech stocks overheated and China uncertainties loom

Despite the hundreds of billions of dollars of investment already poured into data centers fueling generative AI projects like ChatGPT, actual revenues in this space remain relatively modest.

According to Morgan Stanley, generative AI products from major cloud providers such as Amazon, Microsoft, and Google brought in about $45 billion last year.

Marvell, a key supplier of custom semiconductors to these companies, has faced additional headwinds, including trade tensions and questions around its growth prospects. Its shares, which had previously surged on the AI hardware boom, have slumped more than 40% since the beginning of 2025.

Nvidia, meanwhile, awaits clarification from the U.S. government regarding a deal to resume H20 chip exports to China, with the administration set to collect a revenue share from those sales.

Chinese authorities have discouraged local firms from buying Nvidia’s technology, ramping up efforts to support domestic alternatives. Cambricon, a leading Chinese AI chipmaker, recently posted record profits and claimed advancements that bring its products closer to Nvidia’s standards, sending its stock price soaring.

Shares in U.S.-based Super Micro Computer, a vital part of Nvidia’s supply chain, fell 5.5% after reporting internal accounting challenges.

Bitcoin price slumps further into the weekend

While tech stocks and AI-linked companies face their own market turbulence, Bitcoin has not been immune to broader risk-off sentiment.

Bitcoin’s price fell below $108,000 on Saturday, heading into the weekend, down nearly 7% for the week and at its lowest point since July.

Selling has accelerated as investors react to persistent uncertainty around U.S. monetary policy, sticky inflation, and weakening labor market data.

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At the risk of being labeled the boy that cried wolf, there are early signs of a crack in the back of the NASDAQ 100 Index’s rally. These include a violation of the Lower Warning Line (dashed red line, LWL) of the Standard Pitchfork (red P1 through P3) after failing to hold the retaken ground above the Lower Parallel (sold red line). I know I’ve been beating a dead horse for weeks, but there continues to be a repeated non-confirmation of the higher price highs in the Momentum / Breadth Oscillator (dashed yellow lines). Not only does it reflect deterioration in upside momentum, but it also speaks to decaying breadth. There are early signs of a break of the trend in relative outperformance versus the SPX as witnessed by a drop below its longer-term moving average (blue line) for the first time in months (a drop of the shorter-term moving average, red line through the longer, would confirm the breakdown). There has been a sharp turn lower in the Stochastic Momentum Index (bottom panel) that at the very least suggests a potential deeper price retracement than we have seen in months. There is no question that I am sticking my neck out with this warning considering that over the next three days there could be news driven volatility in the rates market that will likely overflow into the equity markets. Key support is at the Kijun Plot (green line at 23,320) and second at Cloud support.

Good Morning, Asia. Here’s what’s making news in the markets:

Welcome to Asia Morning Briefing, a daily summary of top stories during U.S. hours and an overview of market moves and analysis. For a detailed overview of U.S. markets, see CoinDesk’s Crypto Daybook Americas.

As Hong Kong begins its trading day, ETH is changing hands above $4600, down 3% on-day.

As ETH is up nearly 16% in the last week, and 45% in the last month, this probably isn’t a concern for most traders. After all, the ETH/BTC ratio has broken above its 365-day moving average, a signal that has historically marked extended periods of ETH outperformance, and spot ETF flows are reinforcing the move.

However, the same data shows early warning signs of near-term cooling, as CryptoQuant argued in a recent report.

Daily ETH inflows to exchanges have surpassed Bitcoin’s, suggesting some holders are positioning to take profits. ETH’s MVRV ratio against BTC has risen from 0.4 in May to 0.8, approaching historical overvaluation territory. CryptoQuant warns that in past cycles, such levels have preceded pauses or pullbacks in ETH’s relative strength.

Trading desks echo this view.

In a recent note, France-based FlowDesk reports that while there were $1 billion in single-day ETH ETF inflows on Monday, with broad client buying versus BTC and SOL, there were also increased call overwriting in ETH options at the $7K–$8K strikes for December — a sign some are capping upside expectations.

QCP framed ETH’s rally within a macro backdrop of softer headline CPI in its daily Asia Color telegram update, with strong expectations for a September Fed cut, and geopolitical easing, but flags upcoming Jackson Hole remarks and remaining CPI/NFP prints as potential sentiment pivots.

Market maker Enflux added in comments to CoinDesk that a hotter-than-expected PPI print reminded traders that inflation risks remain uneven, and that ETH’s outsized performance could invite consolidation.

While the structural drivers remain intact, ETF demand, institutional participation, and favorable on-chain signals, the market is entering a phase where stretched positioning and macro event risk could test ETH’s momentum. As CryptoQuant’s data shows, the rally is strong, but so are the early signs of profit-taking.

Market Movers

BTC: Bitcoin fell over 3% from record highs after hotter U.S. inflation dampened rate cut hopes and the Treasury signaled it will not expand Bitcoin purchases for its strategic reserve.

ETH: ETH is down 3.3% as sell pressure increases, as traders take profit after a record rally.

Gold: Gold fell 0.62% to $3,336.6 as hotter U.S. inflation and strong jobs data boosted the dollar and yields, trimming expectations for a large September Fed rate cut.

Nikkei 225: The Nikkei 225 opened higher as Japan’s economy grew an annualized 1.0% in Q2, beating forecasts on strong exports and capital spending, though analysts warn U.S. tariffs could slow growth in the coming months.

S&P 500: U.S. stocks stalled Thursday as a hotter-than-expected PPI dampened hopes for a large September rate cut. Goldman Sachs warns its models show elevated odds of an S&P 500 drop, citing low volatility and growing tariff risks.

Elsewhere in Crypto:

• U.S. Blacklists Crypto Network Behind Ruble-Backed Stablecoin and Shuttered Exchange Garantex (CoinDesk)
• Strategy Pushed ‘Deceptive’ Comparison to Apple and NVIDIA, Wall Street Veteran Says (Decrypt)
• Crypto Casino CEO Charged After Allegedly Gambling Away Investors’ Millions (Decrypt)

President Donald Trump signed an executive order on Aug. 7 to halt what his administration called discriminatory banking practices against the crypto industry.

The order bars federal regulators from using “reputational risk” as justification to influence banks’ decisions about working with legal businesses.

According to the administration, the digital asset sector has been disproportionately affected by behind-the-scenes pressure from regulatory agencies, leading to abrupt account closures, payroll disruptions, and loss of financial access for law-abiding firms.

The move directly targets what critics have dubbed “Operation Choke Point 2.0,” a term used by the crypto industry to describe a coordinated campaign of informal regulatory pressure.

While not an official program, the term refers to a pattern of supervisory actions that allegedly discourage banks from servicing digital asset companies, even when those firms comply with existing laws.

The modern-day chokepoint mirrors tactics once used in a 2010s-era Department of Justice initiative, which sought to cut off banking access for industries labeled high-risk for fraud, including firearms and payday lending.

However, unlike its predecessor, the newer iteration has focused largely on crypto. Since early 2023, multiple firms have reported unexplained debanking, often following vague concerns about risk rather than concrete compliance violations.

Industry advocates and pro-crypto lawmakers have stated that the unfriendly environment created uncertainty for startups and institutional players alike, limiting growth and undermining regulatory credibility in the US.

Trump’s order codifies recent moves by the Federal Reserve, FDIC, and Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, all of which have pledged to stop evaluating banks based on reputational factors.

It also aligns with legislation under discussion in Congress, where lawmakers have pushed for stricter limits on how regulators supervise politically sensitive or emerging industries.

The order is part of a broader effort by the Trump administration to establish clearer protections for crypto companies operating within the US financial system.

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Bitcoin prices surged to $116,850 on Thursday, showing an increase of more than 2% after reports revealed that President Donald Trump plans to sign an executive order allowing crypto and other alternative assets in 401(k) retirement accounts, potentially unlocking a large pool of Bitcoin facility capital.

The executive order, scheduled to be signed Thursday, directs the Labor Bureau to reevaluate existing guidance on alternative investments controlled by the Employee Retirement Income Security Act of 1974 (ERISA). The move will allow Americans to gain greater access to Bitcoin and crypto through retirement savings accounts, which currently hold about $12.5 trillion in assets.

This executive order represents a fork moment for Bitcoin adoption. Opening a 401(k) for Bitcoin investment could fundamentally reconstruct the institutional landscape of Bitcoin and drive critical new capital into space.

The development continues to accelerate as companies adoption of Bitcoin continues to accelerate, and we see notable moves from companies like Metaplanet, which purchased 463 BTC worth $53.7 million in recent weeks, as well as smart web companies that have launched a remanted convertible bond with $21 million in Bitcoin. The number of public companies holding Bitcoin has skyrocketed to over 200 in the past few months, highlighting the growing institutional trust in asset classes.

The Labor Bureau is tasked with clarifying the fiduciary responsibility of retirement plan providers that provide funding, including alternative assets, and may remove important barriers that historically limit the exposure of Bitcoin and crypto in retirement accounts. Industry experts suggest that this can pave the way for a more refined Bitcoin investment product tailored to retirement savings.

Clarifying fiduciary duties could be a game-changer for retirement planning providers. It could remove one of the main regulatory uncertainties that keeps many institutional players on the bystanders.

Market observers note that the timing of the executive order coincides with the increasing institutional interest in Bitcoin as an asset and investment vehicle of the Treasury. Recent launches of innovative financial products such as Bitcoin denominated bonds and specialized preferred stocks suggest that the market is already evolving and is responding to increased institutional participation.

The executive order is expected to benefit not only Bitcoin and crypto, but also other alternative assets, including private equity and real estate. However, Bitcoin’s position as a major crypto has become a major focus for institutional investors looking to gain exposure to the crypto market.

The volume of trading across major cryptocurrency exchanges has skyrocketed following the news, with over $30 billion of Bitcoin changing hands in the last 24 hours. Market responses suggest pricing of the potential long-term impact of investor accessing retirement accounts to Bitcoin.

Bitcoin’s new investor dominance is gaining momentum just as the asset consolidates in a tight range, setting the stage for a major breakout. After more than two weeks of sideways movement between $115,000 and $120,000, BTC continues to trade within this well-defined range—building pressure that typically precedes a sharp move.

Related Reading

Data from CryptoQuant highlights a crucial dynamic: the comparison between demand and supply from new versus old investors. The current new investor dominance sits at 30%, only half of the “overheated” range of 60–70% seen during euphoric phases, but the trend is clearly climbing. This means new liquidity is entering the market steadily, while old holders are still distributing at a manageable pace. The supply of long-term holders is absorbing this growing young demand without disrupting the price structure.

This healthy balance suggests that the market is still in a stable late bull phase, with no signs of mass profit-taking or capitulation from seasoned investors. With Bitcoin maintaining a bullish structure and demand from fresh entrants rising, the coming days will be critical.

Bitcoin Enters Healthy Late Bull Phase as New Investor Activity Grows

Top analyst Axel Adler recently shared detailed insights into Bitcoin’s market structure, focusing on the balance between new and old investor behavior. According to Adler, previous peaks in new investor dominance—64% in March 2024 and 72% in December 2024—aligned precisely with local BTC price tops. At those points, new liquidity began to wane, and experienced holders ramped up profit-taking.

Currently, new investor dominance stands at 30%, which is still far from those overheated extremes. However, the trend is upward. The purple fill on the chart, which reflects cumulative activity from younger coins, has been climbing steadily since July 2024. This indicates that a fresh wave of buyers continues to enter the market, while selling pressure from old hands remains limited.

This dynamic creates room for further bullish continuation before the typical euphoria zone—above 60–70% dominance—takes hold. Old holders are still distributing coins, but only moderately. A coefficient of 0.3 means that three-year-old coins are absorbing demand without triggering major volatility. This balance suggests that the market remains structurally sound.

Related Reading

Bitcoin Forms A Tight Consolidation Range

Bitcoin is currently trading at $118,413, consolidating in a narrow range between $115,724 and $122,077, as seen in the 8-hour chart. This sideways movement has persisted for over two weeks, indicating indecision in the market. The key support sits at $115,724, which has been tested multiple times but held firmly, while the $122,077 level acts as immediate resistance after a strong rejection earlier in July.

The price remains above the 50, 100, and 200-period moving averages, which now align in bullish order—another sign that the underlying trend is still intact despite short-term consolidation. Volume remains relatively low, suggesting that neither bulls nor bears are aggressively positioning at the moment. However, such tight ranges often precede large directional moves.

Related Reading

If bulls manage to break above the $122K resistance with strong volume, it could trigger a continuation toward new highs. On the other hand, a breakdown below the $115.7K support would expose downside risk. Potentially leading to a retest of the 100-period moving average around $114,490 or even the 200-period average near $110,188.

Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView

President Donald Trump signed the GENIUS Act into law on July 18, pledging that the measure will secure “global dominance” in crypto technology.

The legislation gives the US its first federal framework for dollar‑backed stablecoins. Trump celebrated the passing of the bill, saying:

“Crypto has gone up more than any stock. Crypto makes the dollar look good. Crypto is good for the dollar, the nation.” 

He added that the GENIUS Act positions the country to lead the sector and vowed to approve broader crypto market structure legislation before the end of the year. 

Senate Banking Committee ranking member Tim Scott called the statute “regulatory clarity for the stablecoin industry” and said faster, cheaper payments would “solidify the US dollar’s dominance across the world.” 

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent echoed the theme in an X post, thanking House Republicans for “actions that keep the promise” to make America the “crypto capital of the world.”

Stablecoin framework

The GENIUS Act creates a federal framework for issuing and overseeing payment stablecoins.

It assigns the Federal Reserve to license and supervise national-level, insured depository institutions, while permitting eligible, state-chartered firms to mint dollar-pegged tokens if they meet equivalent standards on reserves, disclosures, redemptions, and risk controls.

Issuers must back every token with high-quality liquid assets, such as cash, Treasury bills, or other short-dated government securities, that match their outstanding liabilities and provide regular attestation reports.

The law also directs bank regulators to set examination schedules, guarantees consumers the right to redeem at face value within specific time frames, and requires that reserve assets remain segregated unless customers give explicit consent for rehypothecation.

Last stretch

The House cleared the GENIUS Act 307‑122 on July 17, one day after adopting a 215‑211 motion to reconsider a procedural package that combined the GENIUS Act with the CLARITY Act and the Anti‑CBDC Surveillance Act.

Lawmakers first bundled the three measures on July 16 to expedite floor action, but that resolution did not constitute enrollable text. Committee staff then prepared the GENIUS language as a stand‑alone bill that both chambers could pass in identical form. 

The Senate approved the consolidated version late on July 17, completing the bicameral process required for enrollment and presentation to the White House.

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President Donald Trump today signed the act of genius and marked a milestone in his administration’s push to establish the United States as a global Bitcoin and crypto capital. The law creates a clear regulatory framework for dollar-backed stubcoins, representing what Trump called “probably the biggest revolution in financial technology since the birth of the Internet itself.”

The Genius Act does not address Bitcoin directly, but the act establishes regulatory clarity that can benefit all digital assets, including Bitcoin, by creating a better environment for crypto innovation and increasing the volume of trading on exchanges.

Speaking at the signing ceremony, Trump highlighted the possibility of a change in the new law. “This is a really big day. It’s a really big thing. I want to thank my very good friend, Sen. Bill Hagerty.” This makes America stronger and congratulations, that’s good for the country. ”

The President connected the law to Bitcoin and crypto commitments, referring to historic appearances at the Bitcoin Conference. “At the very month, when many people were in Nashville, Tennessee, when I became the first president to compete in the Bitcoin Conference. We have vowed to make the United States the crypto capital of the world. This is going even further.”

Trump outlined his administration’s approach to digital assets and highlighted several key initiatives. “In the first week of his inauguration, he established the first presidential working group on digital assets, halting government weaponization against crypto and halting Bitcoin.

The President also referred to the establishment of strategic Bitcoin reservations through the executive order, specifically showing his commitment to Bitcoin. “Last March, I signed an executive order establishing a US strategic Bitcoin Reserve and US digital asset stockpile. Today’s signature is pushing us even further into an exciting frontier.”

The president then discussed how genius acts address critical infrastructure gaps in the American financial system. “Many Americans are unaware that the technical backbone of the financial system is in a decades-old era. “The Genius Act provides banks, businesses and financial institutions with a framework for issuing crypto assets that are supported one-to-one in real US dollars.”

According to Trump, the law is expected to increase demand for the US Treasury. He also reaffirmed central bank opposition to digital currencies, saying, “I am also fully committed to the pledge that the central bank will never allow digital currencies in the US.”

AI & Crypto Czar David Sacks spoke at the ceremony, highlighting the historical nature of the moment. “Today you have another historic legislative achievement, a step towards making the United States the world’s crypto capital.

Trump has pledged additional crypto laws this year, calling it a “really hot industry” and continues to evoke the continued momentum of America’s Bitcoin and digital asset development.