shortterm – Earlybirds Invest https://earlybirdsinvest.com Latest Crypto News Sun, 14 Sep 2025 05:58:22 +0000 en-US hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=6.9.7 https://i0.wp.com/earlybirdsinvest.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/cropped-New-Project-2024-12-17T235703.455.png?fit=32%2C32&ssl=1 shortterm – Earlybirds Invest https://earlybirdsinvest.com 32 32 240146708 Fed’s Sept. 17 Rate Cut Could Spark Short-Term Jitters but Supercharge Bitcoin, Gold and Stocks Long Term https://earlybirdsinvest.com/feds-sept-17-rate-cut-could-spark-short-term-jitters-but-supercharge-bitcoin-gold-and-stocks-long-term/ https://earlybirdsinvest.com/feds-sept-17-rate-cut-could-spark-short-term-jitters-but-supercharge-bitcoin-gold-and-stocks-long-term/#respond Sun, 14 Sep 2025 05:58:22 +0000 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/feds-sept-17-rate-cut-could-spark-short-term-jitters-but-supercharge-bitcoin-gold-and-stocks-long-term/

Investors are counting down to the Federal Reserve’s Sept. 17 monetary policy decision; markets expect a quarter-point rate cut that could trigger short-term volatility but potentially fuel longer-term gains across risk assets.

The economic backdrop highlights the Fed’s delicate balancing act.

According to the latest CPI report released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics on Thursday, consumer prices rose 0.4% in August, lifting the annual CPI rate to 2.9% from 2.7% in July, as shelter, food, and gasoline pushed costs higher. Core CPI also climbed 0.3%, extending its steady pace of recent months.

Producer prices told a similar story: per the latest PPI report released on Wednesday, the headline PPI index slipped 0.1% in August but remained 2.6% higher than a year earlier, while core PPI advanced 2.8%, the largest yearly increase since March. Together, the reports underscore stubborn inflationary pressure even as growth slows.

The labor market has softened further.

Nonfarm payrolls increased by just 22,000 in August, with federal government and energy sector job losses offsetting modest gains in health care. Unemployment held at 4.3%, while labor force participation remained stuck at 62.3%.

Revisions showed June and July job growth was weaker than initially reported, reinforcing signs of cooling momentum. Average hourly earnings still rose 3.7% year over year, keeping wage pressures alive.

Bond markets have adjusted accordingly. Per data from MarketWatch, 2-year Treasury yield sits at 3.56%, while the 10-year is at 4.07%, leaving the curve modestly inverted. Futures traders see a 93% chance of a 25 basis point cut, according to CME FedWatch.

If the Fed limits its move to just 25 bps, investors may react with a “buy the rumor, sell the news” response, since markets have already priced in relief.

Equities are testing record levels.

The S&P 500 closed Friday at 6,584 after rising 1.6% for the week, its best since early August. The index’s one-month chart shows a strong rebound from its late-August pullback, underscoring bullish sentiment heading into Fed week.

S&P 500 One-Month Chart From Google Finance

S&P 500 One-Month Chart From Google Finance

The Nasdaq Composite also notched five straight record highs, ending at 22,141, powered by gains in megacap tech stocks, while the Dow slipped below 46,000 but still booked a weekly advance.

Crypto and commodities have rallied alongside.

Bitcoin is trading at $115,234, below its Aug. 14 all-time high near $124,000 but still firmly higher in 2025, with the global crypto market cap now $4.14 trillion.

Bitcoin One-Month Price Chart From CoinDesk Data

BTC-USD One-Month Price Chart From CoinDesk Data

Gold has surged to $3,643 per ounce, near record highs, with its one-month chart showing a steady upward trajectory as investors price in lower real yields and seek inflation hedges.

One-Month Gold Price Chart From TradingView

One-Month Gold Price Chart From TradingView

Historical precedent supports the cautious optimism.

Analysis from the Kobeissi Letter — reported in an X thread posted Saturday — citing Carson Research, shows that in 20 of 20 prior cases since 1980 where the Fed cut rates within 2% of S&P 500 all-time highs, the index was higher one year later, averaging gains of nearly 14%.

The shorter term is less predictable: in 11 of those 22 instances, stocks fell in the month following the cut. Kobeissi argues this time could follow a similar pattern — initial turbulence followed by longer-term gains as rate relief amplifies the momentum behind assets like equities, bitcoin and gold.

The broader setup explains why traders are watching the Sept. 17 announcement closely.

Cutting rates while inflation edges higher and stocks hover at records risks denting credibility, yet staying on hold could spook markets that have already priced in easing. Either way, the Fed’s message on growth, inflation, and its policy outlook will likely shape the trajectory of markets for months to come.

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Bitcoin finds support on a short-term holder cost basis, how long does it last? https://earlybirdsinvest.com/bitcoin-finds-support-on-a-short-term-holder-cost-basis-how-long-does-it-last/ https://earlybirdsinvest.com/bitcoin-finds-support-on-a-short-term-holder-cost-basis-how-long-does-it-last/#respond Tue, 02 Sep 2025 03:10:26 +0000 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/bitcoin-finds-support-on-a-short-term-holder-cost-basis-how-long-does-it-last/ Bitcoin has seen rebounds since retesting the realized prices of short-term holders.

Bitcoin short-term holders have made it possible for prices to act as support

As Cryptoquant author IT Tech explained in X Post, Bitcoin found support by achieving short-term holder prices during the latest DIP. The “realized price” here refers to an on-chain indicator that measures the cost base of the average investor on the BTC network.

If the cryptocurrency price exceeds this metric, it means that the entire holder is in a state of net unrealized profit. On the other hand, being under the indicator means that the entire market is red.

In the context of the current topic, realised prices for only certain segments of investors are interesting. Short term holder (STH). This cohort includes holders who have purchased coins within the last 155 days.

STHS supplements one of the two main sectors of the Bitcoin market, which was made based on holding time, with the other side known as the Long Term Holder (LTHS).

What makes these groups different is that investors in the former tend to be weaker hands who move in panic every time volatility appears in the sector, while members of the latter exhibit high conviction behavior.

For any investor, their cost base is at a critical level and STH is particularly whimsical, so when realised prices are retested, they usually have some kind of response. This has led to the price of assets that have observed various interactions with this metric in the past.

As the chart below shared by analysts suggests, one such interaction may have occurred in the past day.

Bitcoin Sth has made the price come true

As shown in the graph above, Bitcoin Sth now achieves around $107,500. In BTC’s latest DIP, its price went slightly under this mark, but it turns out to be a high rebound.

Generally, STH buys to adhere to their cost standards if the emotions between them are bullish. At such times, they believe that the price of their damaged mark will be an opportunity to “buy dip”

Given the fact that the assets could find support at the realised price of STH, it appears that STH still thinks the bullish regime is on. That said, Bitcoin has only seen a small rebound so far, so it remains to be seen whether its assets are above the level or if there will be another retest.

In a scenario where metric breakdowns occur, cryptocurrencies could face a shift towards a short-term bearish trend that took place in February this year.

BTC price

At the time of writing, Bitcoin has dropped by 2% to around $109,200 over the past seven days.

Bitcoin Price Chart

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Ethereum Nears $4,400 Resistance As Binance Inflows Spark Short-Term Caution https://earlybirdsinvest.com/ethereum-nears-4400-resistance-as-binance-inflows-spark-short-term-caution/ https://earlybirdsinvest.com/ethereum-nears-4400-resistance-as-binance-inflows-spark-short-term-caution/#respond Mon, 11 Aug 2025 00:20:28 +0000 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/ethereum-nears-4400-resistance-as-binance-inflows-spark-short-term-caution/ The Ethereum (ETH) market has unlocked another wave of bullish momentum after decisively breaking above the long-standing resistance at the $4,000 level. The most prominent altcoin now trades around $4,200, representing an estimated 180% gain from market lows of $1,500 in May 2025. Looking forward, a market analyst with the username CryptoOnChain unveils a potential price trajectory for Ethereum, detailing both short- and long-term outlooks for the asset.

On-Chain Data Shows ETH Long-Term Bullish, Short-Term Vulnerable

In a QuickTake post on CryptoQuant, CryptoOnChain shares insights on Ethereum’s future price movement based on recent exchange activity. The digital asset analyst notes that after rallying from the $2,400 zone, ETH has climbed to around $4,215, just shy of the strong $4,400 resistance level that has historically acted as a significant supply barrier. While momentum indicators such as the MACD and buying volume remain positive, the approach toward this resistance is accompanied by potential for near-term selling pressure.

Ethereum

Meanwhile, CryptoOnChain also reveals that on-chain exchange metrics reveal a divergence between broader market behavior and activity specific to Binance. Notably, Ethereum’s Exchange Supply Ratio (ESR) across all exchanges has recorded a steady decline since 2022, now standing at approximately 0.16. This development suggests that investors are steadily moving ETH off trading platforms, thereby reducing sell-side liquidity and strengthening the market confidence in the asset’s long-term price outlook.

However, Binance’s ESR has been climbing since early 2025, now hovering near 0.04. This localized increase indicates that some ETH holders are moving coins back into Binance, potentially for short-term profit taking, arbitrage opportunities, or to participate in exchange-specific programs. Adding to the cautious tone, Binance’s exchange netflow has recently seen a notable surge in positive inflows, as Ethereum nears key resistance at $4,400, signifying potential intent to sell.

The combination of these metrics paints a picture of long-term strength but short-term vulnerability for the Ethereum market. From a macro standpoint, the ongoing decline in the all-exchange ESR points to a healthier supply-demand balance for ETH. However, the localized buildup of ETH on Binance, which is the world’s largest exchange, coupled with heightened net inflows, suggests that sellers may be preparing to take profits in the immediate term.

Ethereum Price Forecast

At press time, Ethereum trades at $4,230, reflecting a 4.62% gain in the last day. However, the asset’s daily trading volume has declined by 12.08%.  Considering the current ESR report, CryptoOnChain outlines two scenarios.

In a bullish scenario, a swift drop in Binance net inflows or a leveling off in the exchange’s ESR could open the door for ETH to push decisively past the $4,400 mark, with $4,800 as the next price target amidst the possibility of revisiting all-time highs. Conversely, if strong inflows into Binance persist and the price fails to clear $4,400, ETH could face a short-term pullback, potentially retracing to the $3,950–$4,000 support zone before mounting another breakout attempt.

Ethereum

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Bitcoin Price Tries to Climb Again – Bulls Eye Short-Term Upside https://earlybirdsinvest.com/bitcoin-price-tries-to-climb-again-bulls-eye-short-term-upside/ https://earlybirdsinvest.com/bitcoin-price-tries-to-climb-again-bulls-eye-short-term-upside/#respond Thu, 07 Aug 2025 02:51:31 +0000 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/bitcoin-price-tries-to-climb-again-bulls-eye-short-term-upside/

Bitcoin price is attempting to recover above the $114,200 zone. BTC is now consolidating and might attempt to clear the $115,500 resistance zone.

  • Bitcoin started a recovery wave above the $113,500 zone.
  • The price is trading above $114,000 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average.
  • There was a break above a bearish trend line with resistance at $114,300 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken).
  • The pair might start another increase if it clears the $115,500 resistance zone.

Bitcoin Price Attempts Recovery

Bitcoin price found support near the $112,000 zone and started a recovery wave. BTC was able to climb above the $113,500 and $114,200 resistance levels.

Besides, there was a break above a bearish trend line with resistance at $114,300 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. The price climbed toward the 50% Fib retracement level of the move from the $118,918 swing high to the $112,000 low.

However, the bears were active near the $115,500 resistance and the price struggled to continue higher. Bitcoin is now trading above $114,000 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average.

Immediate resistance on the upside is near the $115,000 level. The first key resistance is near the $115,500 level. The next resistance could be $116,250 or the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the move from the $118,918 swing high to the $112,000 low.

Bitcoin Price
Bitcoin Price

A close above the $116,250 resistance might send the price further higher. In the stated case, the price could rise and test the $117,500 resistance level. Any more gains might send the price toward the $118,000 level. The main target could be $120,000.

Another Drop In BTC?

If Bitcoin fails to rise above the $115,500 resistance zone, it could start another decline. Immediate support is near the $114,200 level. The first major support is near the $113,500 level.

The next support is now near the $112,000 zone. Any more losses might send the price toward the $110,500 support in the near term. The main support sits at $108,500, below which BTC might continue to move down.

Technical indicators:

Hourly MACD – The MACD is now losing pace in the bearish zone.

Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now above the 50 level.

Major Support Levels – $113,500, followed by $112,000.

Major Resistance Levels – $115,500 and $117,500.

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Short-term holders drove Bitcoin price decline but market remains profitable https://earlybirdsinvest.com/short-term-holders-drove-bitcoin-price-decline-but-market-remains-profitable/ https://earlybirdsinvest.com/short-term-holders-drove-bitcoin-price-decline-but-market-remains-profitable/#respond Fri, 01 Aug 2025 18:15:13 +0000 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/short-term-holders-drove-bitcoin-price-decline-but-market-remains-profitable/

Bitcoin started August on a bearish note, but the downturn appears to have stemmed from spot market activity rather than a wave of forced liquidations in derivatives markets.

Over the past 24 hours, the flagship digital asset dropped by more than 3% to under $115,000, resulting in over $200 million in market liquidation.

Glassnode data reveals that recent sellers in this market condition were predominantly short-term holders.

Bitcoin Short Term Sellers
Bitcoin Short-Term Sellers Drive Market Decline (Source: Glassnode)

Of the $21.34 billion in BTC that changed hands during the period, 85.5%—roughly $18.24 billion—was attributed to investors who acquired their coins within the last few months. In contrast, long-term holders accounted for only 14.5% ($3.10 billion) of the volume.

This trend suggests the pullback was driven more by newer market entrants reacting to price weakness than by institutional or long-term investors exiting the market.

Despite the sell pressure, the broader market remains largely in profit.

According to Glassnode data, the Percent Supply in Profit, representing the share of circulating BTC currently in profit, has stayed above 90% for over a month. While this reflects broad unrealized gains, it also signals rising pressure to take profits.

Bitcoin Supply in Profit
Bitcoin Supply in Profit (Source: Glassnode)
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Bitcoin Short-Term Holders Are Selling At A Loss Amid Ongoing Price Fluctuations https://earlybirdsinvest.com/bitcoin-short-term-holders-are-selling-at-a-loss-amid-ongoing-price-fluctuations/ https://earlybirdsinvest.com/bitcoin-short-term-holders-are-selling-at-a-loss-amid-ongoing-price-fluctuations/#respond Fri, 01 Aug 2025 01:15:24 +0000 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/bitcoin-short-term-holders-are-selling-at-a-loss-amid-ongoing-price-fluctuations/

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After coming close to the $120,000 price mark a few days ago, Bitcoin’s price faced notable bearish pressure, causing the flagship asset to fall back to $116,000. With BTC experiencing price swings, short-term holders have begun to offload their holdings, indicating panic selling among these investors.

Losses Mount For Short-Term Bitcoin Holders

As Bitcoin battles with growing bearish pressure, Darkfost, an author and market expert, has outlined a negative behavior among short-term BTC holders. BTC’s recent price fluctuations seem to be taking a toll on short-term holders, with many going on a selling spree.

According to the market expert, BTC continues to remain in a range that has lasted for almost a month. In the meantime, a couple of small downward wicks have inflicted pressure on some short-term BTC holders, which ultimately caused the investors to offload their holdings.

With BTC’s price dropping again, Darkfost stated that these investors are currently selling at a loss once again. Such actions from these newer investors, who are typically more sensitive to volatility, mark a growing sign of capitulation in the midst of waning price performance.

Bitcoin
BTC Short-term holders are selling heavily | Source: Darkfost on X

The selling spree at a loss indicates fading confidence and rising interest among the group to exit the market prior to extended declines in price. Meanwhile, the actions of short-term players could provide early warning signs of more significant changes in market sentiment.

Data shared by Darkfost after examining the Bitcoin Short-Term Holder P&L to Exchange revealed that more than 50,000 BTC were recorded on July 15 to be in losses. In addition, over 37,000 BTC were observed to be in losses on July 25.

As Bitcoin continues to range, the market expert underscored the possibility of the behavior becoming worse, which could deepen short-term corrections that have already been fueled by profit-taking. Considering the development, Darkfost claims that the trend needs to be monitored closely.

A Shift From Long-Term Holders To Short-Term Holders

Another crucial trend observed in the Bitcoin market is the ongoing transition of supply held by BTC investors. In an X post, Maartunn, an on-chain expert at CryptoQuant, reported a shift in Bitcoin supply from long-term holders to short-term holders.

The expert highlighted that over 223,602 BTC moved from long-term holders to short-term holders in the last 30 days. This redistribution is a sign of a shifting investment environment as newer players enter the market and more experienced holders start to realize profits or realign their holdings. 

According to Maartunn, the trend from LTH to STH is gaining momentum.  In the meantime, this pattern marks a significant change in the market structure of Bitcoin and could influence the course of its price in the near term.

At the time of writing, data from CoinMarketCap shows that BTC is slowly regaining upside momentum after facing a drop to $116,000 on Wednesday. While the price has witnessed a 0.34% in the past day, its trading volume has risen by over 10% within the same period.

Bitcoin
BTC trading at $118,665 on the 1D chart | Source: BTCUSDT on Tradingview.com

Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

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dogecoin shows “higher” price action with short-term relief for bulls https://earlybirdsinvest.com/dogecoin-shows-higher-price-action-with-short-term-relief-for-bulls/ https://earlybirdsinvest.com/dogecoin-shows-higher-price-action-with-short-term-relief-for-bulls/#respond Tue, 17 Jun 2025 05:18:24 +0000 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/dogecoin-shows-higher-price-action-with-short-term-relief-for-bulls/

Shaurya is a co-leader of Asia’s Coindesk Tokens and Data Team, focusing on cryptographic derivatives, Defi, Market Microstructure, and protocol analysis.

Shaurya holds over $1,000 in BTC, ETH, SOL, AVAX, SUSHI and CRV. GHST, Perp, Btrfly, Ohm, Banana, Rome, Burger, Spirit, and Orca.

He offers over $1,000 for liquidity pools of compounds, curves, sushi, pancake waps, burger waps, orca, anyswap, spirit waps, luke protocols, longing finances, synthetics, harvests, compiled cartels, Olimps Dao, Rome, Trader Joe and Sun.

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Ethereum Eye Potential Parabolic Upsurge – Here’s The Short-Term Target https://earlybirdsinvest.com/ethereum-eye-potential-parabolic-upsurge-heres-the-short-term-target/ https://earlybirdsinvest.com/ethereum-eye-potential-parabolic-upsurge-heres-the-short-term-target/#respond Mon, 16 Jun 2025 19:26:18 +0000 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/ethereum-eye-potential-parabolic-upsurge-heres-the-short-term-target/

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With the growing bullish sentiment across the general crypto market, Ethereum is now seeing a renewed uptrend, pushing the digital asset to break above the key $2,600 resistance level. Beneath the ongoing positive price performance, a crypto analyst has underlined the potential for ETH to witness a robust rally in the upcoming weeks.

Wild Surge May Be Imminent For Ethereum

Since retesting the $2,850 range, Ethereum’s price has fallen sharply toward key support zones. ETH may have faced bearish pressure after hitting the level, but a recent analysis from BATMAN, a crypto expert and trader, implies that this stage might just be the calm before the storm. 

BATMAN’s analysis contends that Ethereum seems poised for an explosive move, with several technical indicators and key patterns pointing to the possibility of an impending wild upswing. Despite its pullback, ETH remains one of the best-performing crypto assets in the last few months, which strengthens its case for an incoming parabolic run.

After examining ETH’s price action, the analyst is confident and expects the altcoin to bounce strongly from its current levels. His chart shows that Ethereum is building momentum above $2,471, which is currently the most immediate support against downward attempts.

Ethereum
ETH targets three key resistance levels ahead | Source: BATMAN on X

Furthermore, BATMAN highlighted that the altcoin is consistently forming higher lows as it targets key resistance levels. While the expert highlights several resistance levels ahead, he underlined the $2,900 mark as the next target for ETH in the short term. However, ETH’s path to this range is not without hurdles. 

Looking at the chart, the first resistance ahead is at $2,657, the second is at $2,773, and the third is at $2,879. Following its rally to the first resistance, Ethereum is expected to witness a brief pullback before surging again toward the next resistance zone at $2,773. A similar scenario is likely to occur when Ethereum hits the second resistance before rallying to the third barrier and beyond.

The current setup and trend line support add to Ethereum’s bullish case for an explosive rally. BATMAN believes that the $4,000 price mark is not far away if the structure and trend line support hold. 

Are ETH Sharks And Whales Positioning For A Rally?

ETH’s recent waning price action has not influenced key investors’ sentiment toward the altcoin. A report from Santiment, a leading on-chain analytics platform, shows that Ethereum’s key investors, particularly the sharks and whales, are quietly ramping up their accumulation.

This persistent accumulation is identified among wallet addresses holding between 100 and 1,000 ETH. Such a development among this cohort signals growing conviction in ETH’s long-term prospects. Although the altcoin gears up for a rally, this action may suggest strategic positioning by these investors.

Data from Santiment reveals that the number of these holders now stands at 6,392. Over the past 30 days, the group has accumulated more than 1.49 million ETH, marking an increase of over 3.72%. After this massive accumulation, this cohort now holds 26.98% of ETH’s total supply.

Ethereum
ETH trading at $2,628 on the 1D chart | Source: ETHUSDT on Tradingview.com

Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

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Bitcoin On-Chain Warning: Short-Term Holder Selling Accelerates Amid Price Correction https://earlybirdsinvest.com/bitcoin-on-chain-warning-short-term-holder-selling-accelerates-amid-price-correction/ https://earlybirdsinvest.com/bitcoin-on-chain-warning-short-term-holder-selling-accelerates-amid-price-correction/#respond Tue, 10 Jun 2025 07:10:54 +0000 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/bitcoin-on-chain-warning-short-term-holder-selling-accelerates-amid-price-correction/

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As Bitcoin (BTC) came close to slumping below the psychologically important $100,000 mark last week, the short-term holders (STH) cohort started to show signs of weakening conviction in the leading cryptocurrency, raising fears of a deeper price correction.

Bitcoin STH Fear Resurfaces

According to a recent CryptoQuant Quicktake post by contributor Darkfost, Bitcoin STH’s net position has turned sharply negative over the past month. This has happened despite BTC holding above the $100,000 level.

For the uninitiated, Bitcoin STH are investors who have held their BTC for less than 155 days. They are generally more reactive to price volatility and market sentiment, often selling during corrections or uncertainty.

Specifically, a cumulative net position change of -833,000 BTC has been recorded among short-term holders during the ongoing pullback. By comparison, the April crash saw a net position change of around -977,000 BTC.

cq1
Source: CryptoQuant

Related Reading

Darkfost noted that current STH behavior closely resembles the activity observed during BTC’s brief drop below $80,000 in April 2025, when the digital asset bottomed out at $74,508. The analyst wrote:

Since then, STH appear to have become much more sensitive to market movements, and the recent dip around the $100,000 mark was enough to trigger renewed fear among this group of investors.

BTC Showing Signs of Reversal

Although BTC lost momentum after reaching its latest all-time high (ATH) of $111,814, the leading cryptocurrency regained strength over the weekend – indicating a possible reversal may be underway.

Related Reading

For example, seasoned crypto analyst Ali Martinez noted that BTC has broken through the key resistance level at $106,600. In a recent X post, Martinez predicted that Bitcoin could rally to $108,300 or even $110,000 if current momentum continues.

In a separate X post, fellow crypto analyst Rekt Capital shared the following Bitcoin daily chart, noting that the cryptocurrency not only broke out of its two-week downtrend – highlighted in light blue – but may now be turning that former resistance into a new support level.

rekt
Source: Rekt Capital on X

Meanwhile, several technical indicators also point to continued bullish momentum. Notably, Bitcoin’s Hash Ribbons have recently flashed a prime buying signal.

Additionally, on-chain data suggests that BTC could experience a sharp upward move in the short term, potentially driven by a negative funding rate on Binance. A prolonged period of negative funding rates often sets the stage for a short squeeze.

Despite the bullish outlook, some red flags remain. Recent data shows that long-term holders are gradually exiting the market, while an influx of retail investors could add volatility to the current rally. At press time, BTC trades at $107,627, up 1.9% in the past 24 hours.

bitcoin
BTC trades at $107,627 on the daily chart | Source: BTCUSDT on TradingView.com

Featured image from Unsplash, charts from CryptoQuant, X, and TradingView.com

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Bitcoin Could See Short-Term Holder Selloff Around These Levels, Analyst Says https://earlybirdsinvest.com/bitcoin-could-see-short-term-holder-selloff-around-these-levels-analyst-says/ https://earlybirdsinvest.com/bitcoin-could-see-short-term-holder-selloff-around-these-levels-analyst-says/#respond Fri, 16 May 2025 08:44:30 +0000 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/bitcoin-could-see-short-term-holder-selloff-around-these-levels-analyst-says/ An analyst has explained how Bitcoin could face significant waves of selling pressure from the short-term holders around these price levels.

Bitcoin Short-Term Holder MVRV Could Flag These Levels As Important

In a new post on X, CryptoQuant author Axel Adler Jr has talked about the trend in the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) Ratio of the Bitcoin short-term holders.

The MVRV Ratio is an indicator that keeps track of the ratio between the Bitcoin Market Cap and Realized Cap. The former represents the value currently held by the investors as a whole, while the latter that initially invested by them. As such, this ratio tells us about the profit-loss situation of the network.

When the value of this metric is greater than 1, it means the average investor on the chain is holding a net unrealized profit. On the other hand, it being under the threshold implies the dominance of loss among the holders.

In the context of the current topic, the MVRV Ratio of only a specific part of the market is of interest: the short-term holders (STHs). The STHs refer to the Bitcoin investors who purchased their coins within the past 155 days.

The members of this cohort tend not to be too resolute, so they often react to market happenings. In particular, whenever the profit held by them gets too high, a mass selloff from them can become probable, as they look to realize their gains.

Now, here is the chart shared by the analyst that shows the trend in the Bitcoin STH MVRV Ratio over the last few years:

Bitcoin STH MVRV Ratio

As is visible in the above graph, the Bitcoin STH MVRV Ratio fell under the 1 mark earlier in the year as the asset’s price declined below the average cost basis of the group.

With the latest recovery rally, the cryptocurrency has managed to break back above the line, putting STHs back into gains. So far, the MVRV Ratio has only reached the 1.09 mark, which isn’t too high when compared to past rallies. As such, it’s possible that the STHs may not be tempted to realize profits en masse just yet.

In the chart, Adler Jr has highlighted two levels where profitability is high enough that significant selling pressure can indeed become likely to arise from this cohort: the 1.25 and 1.35 STH MVRV Ratios. At present, the former is situated at $118,000 and the latter at $128,000.

It now remains to be seen whether Bitcoin will rally high enough to retest these levels—and if it does, whether the STH selloff will act as resistance.

BTC Price

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $103,200, up over 2% in the last seven days.

Bitcoin Price Chart

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