Bitcoin rose above $113,000 on Friday as U.S. payrolls increased by 22,000 and the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.3 percent, pushing traders to price a September Federal Reserve rate cut with near certainty.

Per the Bureau of Labor Statistics release, private employers added 38,000 jobs, government payrolls fell by 16,000 and manufacturing lost 12,000.

Average hourly earnings rose 0.3 percent on the month and 3.7 percent on the year, the labor force participation rate edged up to 62.3 percent and average weekly hours held at 34.2. The U-6 underemployment rate reached 8.1 percent.

Bitcoin traded above the $113,000 level during the session while hovering just below that mark on real-time charts.

The weak headline gain followed a week of incremental softening across higher-frequency indicators. Initial jobless claims rose by 8,000 to a seasonally adjusted 237,000, while private-sector payroll growth in the ADP series cooled, reinforcing evidence of slower hiring, according to Trading Economics data

Separately, the services side of the economy improved but showed persistent price pressure: the ISM Services PMI firmed in August, new orders advanced, and the prices-paid index eased only slightly to a still-elevated 69.2.

On costs, the Labor Department revised second-quarter nonfarm productivity up to a 3.3 percent annualized pace and unit labor costs down to 1.0 percent, a combination that supports disinflation at the margin.

Trade flows added another piece to the macro picture. The U.S. goods and services deficit widened to $78.3 billion in July as imports rebounded, the largest gap since early spring, per the latest joint release from the Bureau of Economic Analysis and Census Bureau. That pattern points to resilient domestic demand and front-loading related to tariff policy, even as hiring momentum slows.

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Rate expectations adjusted quickly after the August payrolls figures. Futures implied probabilities tracked by the CME FedWatch Tool showed markets treating a September reduction as a base case, with some chance of a larger move discussed in rates commentary during the trading day.

The chance of a 50bps cut sat at 0% yesterday but has now jumped to 12%, while the 3.6% chance of no cut has evaporated to 0%.

The setup is straightforward for crypto: a softer labor market and contained wage growth raise the probability of easier policy, which has historically supported liquidity conditions that can lift risk assets, including Bitcoin.

The mix of slower hiring, firm services demand, and improving productivity leaves the policy debate finely balanced heading into the September 16–17 meeting.

If service inflation pressure, captured in ISM prices, moderates alongside cooling labor conditions and lower unit labor costs, the Fed has room to begin a measured easing cycle, a backdrop that crypto markets have already started to discount.

The committee’s decision will finalize the near-term path for dollar liquidity and duration, and by extension, the tone for digital asset trading into quarter-end.

The Fed meets September 16–17.

A rumor is rapidly spreading among crypto investors that the US government may have quietly sold off nearly 170,000 BTC, leaving a fraction of its assumed holdings intact. The speculation began after the US Marshals Service, in response to a FOIA request, revealed that it currently holds only 28,988 BTC valued at approximately $3.4 billion. 

Many crypto investors took this disclosure to mean that the federal government’s total Bitcoin reserves had declined from the long-assumed figure of around 200,000 BTC. The claim was amplified across the social media platform X, where even some public figures reacted to what appears to be a massive strategic sell-off by the US government.

FOIA Request Misinterpreted

The confusion of the US government selling the majority of its Bitcoin holdings appears to stem from misinterpretations of the specific holdings of the US Marshals Service with those of the entire federal government. The FOIA request that sparked the debate was submitted by journalist L0la L33tz, and it accurately reflects that the Marshals control just under 29,000 BTC. However, this only accounts for the Bitcoin under the custody of that particular agency.

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On-chain data from blockchain analytics firm Arkham Intelligence provides a very different picture. According to Arkham, the US government as a whole still holds approximately 198,000 BTC, worth over $23.46 billion at the current price of Bitcoin. These coins are distributed across various federal agencies and are not limited to the Marshals’ holdings. Nevertheless, the misrepresentation took hold quickly. 

Even US Senator Cynthia Lummis, who is a well-known advocate of Bitcoin, responded to the rumor, saying, “I’m alarmed by reports that the U.S. has sold off over 80% of its Bitcoin reserves, leaving just ~29,000 coins. If true, this is a total strategic blunder and sets the United States back years in the bitcoin race.”

What If the US Quietly Sold 170,000 BTC?

The repercussions on the broader crypto market would be immense if the US government had indeed sold off 170,000 BTC in secret. A sale of that scale would unleash massive selling pressure and cause a strong drop in the price of Bitcoin. This would erode confidence among investors in the wider crypto market and set off a chain reaction of liquidations across other cryptocurrencies. Such a move would not only cause technical breakdowns in price structure but also cancel out the possibility of governments around the world holding crypto as a form of strategic reserve.

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Moreover, such a dump would directly contradict the federal policy direction set earlier this year. In March, President Donald Trump signed an executive order instructing all federal agencies to transfer their Bitcoin and digital asset holdings to the US Treasury. The order formalized the creation of a Bitcoin reserve, which was meant to recognize the cryptocurrency as a national asset. In light of that policy, the notion that the US would quietly sell off the majority of its Bitcoin holdings seems highly improbable under the current Trump administration.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $118,360.

Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com