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Modeling future stablecoin payments

Stablecoin payments are not a like-for-like series with either, so a scenario lens is more useful for a 2026 crossover narrative than headline comparisons of raw totals.

A simple forward model anchored to observable drivers produces a $3 trillion to $5 trillion 2026 payments-settlement range.

Assume monthly active addresses compounding 2% to 3% month over month as merchant rails broaden through Stripe and fee-free PYUSD conversions, average payment ticket in the $400 to $1,200 band as remittance and B2B use normalizes, off-ramp penetration to mainstream accounts rising via processors and exchanges, and L2 costs staying near post-Dencun levels.

Scenario	Active Addresses (M)	Txs/User/Month	Avg Transfer ($)	“Clean” Share (%)	Annual Transfer Volume ($T)	Annual Settlement ($T)
Conservative	80–100	2–3	300–600	25–40	4.0–6.8	0.4–1.7
Base Case	120–150	3–4	500–900	35–55	7.0–12.9	2.0–5.0
Aggressive	150+	4–5	800–1,200	50–65	14.0–21.6	5.0+

Scenario

Active Addresses (M)

Txs/User/Month

Avg Transfer ($)

“Clean” Share (%)

Annual Transfer Volume ($T)

Annual Settlement ($T)

Conservative

80–100

2–3

300–600

25–40

4.0–6.8

0.4–1.7

Base Case

120–150

3–4

500–900

35–55

7.0–12.9

2.0–5.0

Aggressive

150+

4–5

800–1,200

50–65

14.0–21.6

5.0+

Apply a conservative haircut to exclude internal exchange churn, then scale by months and a 10% to 20% cash-out factor. Under those constraints, annualized end-user settlement clears $3 trillion in a base case and pushes toward $5 trillion if address growth and average ticket expand together.

Remittance costs also create a wedge, with the World Bank’s RPW citing a 6.26% global average as of March 27. This leaves room for stablecoin rails to compete on price, speed, and transparency.

Macro tailwinds strengthen the floor. The U.S. GENIUS Act, now law, requires fiat-backed reserves and monthly disclosures, reinforcing dollar-stablecoin credibility and, by extension, demand for short-dated Treasuries that sit behind many tokens.

On costs, Galaxy’s work shows rollup fee revenue fell while margins improved after 4844, consistent with sustained low end-user fees as capacity grows.

On acceptance, PayPal cites tens of millions of merchant relationships in filings and industry trackers, which, combined with Stripe’s return to stablecoin checkout, extends distribution beyond crypto-native channels.

The 2026 crossover is less about displacing SWIFT or cards and more about stablecoins absorbing specific corridors where speed, cost, and 24/7 settlement are binding constraints, with on-chain volumes already ample, fees compressed by L2 upgrades, and regulatory clarity catalyzing merchant and treasury adoption.

Mentioned in this article

Jack Dorsey’s online payments company, Block Inc., confirmed in a recent filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) that it is in discussions with the New York State Department of Financial Services (NYDFS).

The company is negotiating with New York regulators to resolve issues related to its Bitcoin
BTC

$90,320.99

programs and anti-money laundering (AML).

The filing, submitted on February 24, states that Block Inc. is addressing concerns about its compliance with the Bank Secrecy Act and its handling of cryptocurrency transactions. It also mentions that the company has set aside funds for a potential settlement.

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Block Inc. has been under scrutiny from regulators across multiple US states. Between January 2021 and March 2023, state regulators investigated its AML policies and found compliance issues.

In January 2024, the company reached a settlement with several state agencies, agreeing to pay $80 million in penalties without admitting or denying any wrongdoing. However, New York was not part of that agreement.

As part of its previous settlement, Block Inc. agreed to make improvements to its compliance program. This includes appointing an independent consultant to review its AML practices and creating a Compliance Management Committee to oversee necessary changes. Payments for the $80 million penalty are scheduled to be completed by February 2025.

Recently, Seán Murray, head of the financial news site deBanked, speculated that Jack Dorsey is Satoshi Nakamoto, Bitcoin’s creator. What were his claims? Read the full story.