Bitcoin Supply On Exchanges Has Been Trending Up Recently

In a new post on X, analyst Ali Martinez has talked about the latest trend in the Bitcoin Supply on Exchanges for Bitcoin. The “Supply on Exchanges” here is an on-chain indicator from the analytics firm Santiment that keeps track of the total amount of BTC that’s sitting on the wallets connected to centralized exchanges.

When the value of this metric rises, it means the holders are depositing a net number of tokens to these platforms. As one of the main reasons why investors transfer to exchanges is for selling-related purposes, this kind of trend can have a bearish effect on the coin’s value.

On the other hand, the indicator going down suggests investors are taking coins off to self-custodial wallets. Such a trend can be a sign that the network is witnessing accumulation, which can naturally be a bullish sign for the cryptocurrency.

Now, here is the chart shared by the analyst that shows the trend in the Bitcoin Supply on Exchanges over the past few weeks:

As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin Supply on Exchanges has been on the way up recently, implying that the investors have been making net inflows. In total, the holders have transferred 20,000 BTC into the wallets of these platforms over the last two weeks. At the current exchange rate, this amount is worth a whopping $2.2 billion.

The timing of these deposits has come alongside the cryptocurrency’s price decline, so it’s likely that a lot of these were made with the intention to sell.

In the same chart, Martinez has also attached the data of the Exchange Inflow, which shows all inflows going to these platforms, not just net inflows. This metric registered a huge spike during the weekend, after which BTC extended its decline.

Interestingly, the Supply on Exchanges didn’t see any increase with this large spike, indicating that there was enough demand for withdrawing the cryptocurrency that balanced out the deposits.

Speaking of exchange inflows, the Bitcoin short-term holders (STHs), buyers from the last 155 days, have made a notable amount of loss deposits recently.

The STHs are made up of the weak hands of the market, so it’s not surprising to see them capitulate during price declines. In fact, large loss-taking spikes from them help Bitcoin find bottoms as their coins transfer to more resolute entities.

BTC Price

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $110,500, down over 2.5% in the last week.

Nasdaq-listed Heritage Distilling Holding Company has unveiled a $360 million digital asset treasury strategy centered on the Story (IP) token, according to an Aug. 11 statement provided to CryptoSlate.

The company said it secured $220 million through a private placement, comprising $100 million in cash and $120 million in Story tokens.

Of the total proceeds, $82 million will be used to purchase additional IP tokens from the Story Foundation. Meanwhile, the Foundation plans to deploy the entire cash portion to repurchase IP tokens on the open market within 90 days of the transaction.

The move marks the first time a Nasdaq-listed company has adopted the IP token as its primary reserve asset, reflecting a broader shift among traditional firms integrating alternative assets into their treasuries. Key backers in the funding round include a16z Crypto, Amber Group, and Arrington Capital.

However, the announcement coincided with sharp market declines in Heritage’s stock and IP’s value.

Google Finance data shows Heritage’s CASK shares plunged nearly 30% to around $0.49 at press time. At the same time, CryptoSlate’s data also recorded a 3.65% decline in the IP token’s value to approximately $6.35.

Understanding Story’s Nasdaq move

Story CEO SY Lee said the decision to list on Nasdaq was driven by a desire to extend the project’s narrative beyond the crypto community.

According to him:

“We’re not doing this just because everyone else is. Our reason is clear: our story needs to be told beyond crypto. There’s no better way to do that than by building a presence in the world’s largest capital market, the US stock market.”

Lee described Story as a blockchain network operating at the intersection of crypto, artificial intelligence, and intellectual property. Rather than competing on yield or transaction speed, the company focuses on unlocking what it views as an $80 trillion asset class spanning AI datasets, entertainment franchises, and biomedical patents.

Story aims to enable attribution, traceability, and fair compensation for creators by making IP programmable. Lee emphasized that the next competitive battleground in AI will be data ownership and monetization, not just computational power.

Lee pointed out that the network has already secured significant adoption as its Layer 1 blockchain already has hundreds of thousands of IPs, including works from artists like Justin Bieber, Blackpink, and BTS, as well as global brands such as Crocs and Adidas.

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As global markets hit the skids this week and forced liquidations and margin calls wipe out more levered longs, prominent traders are repositioning accordingly. New tariffs announced by the Trump administration and a sharply weaker U.S. jobs report caused anxiety in global markets; the S&P 500 lost 1.6% in a day, and Bitcoin, true to form, followed risk sentiment lower.

In times of uncertainty, it pays to use a wider lens: over the last two years, Bitcoin has consistently outperformed all major assets, and nothing else comes close.

Bitcoin vs major assets: the 2-year scorecard

Between July 2023 and July 2025, Bitcoin rallied by an eyewatering 301.7% more than quadrupling in price and cementing itself as the top-performing major asset class. As ecoinometrics points out:

“Bitcoin is dipping again but the long-term picture hasn’t changed… This isn’t a one-off. For two years now, Bitcoin has been a consistent leader.”

Bitcoin’s performance vastly dwarfs traditional stock investments. The leading U.S. stock benchmark, the S&P 500, delivered a far more modest 38% return over the past two years. Despite a strong equities market and multiple record highs for large-cap stocks, the index couldn’t match BTC’s explosive momentum.

Gold, which had a stellar run in its own right, stoked by rising inflation and geopolitical uncertainty, rose 69.8% over the last two years, and couldn’t come close to returning Bitcoin’s gains, proving all laser-eyed Bitcoin maxis right: there is no second best. As Adam Back commented:

“there is no second best. only runner up is treasury companies.”

Even looking at the crypto industry’s number-two coin, Ethereum, only serves to further illustrate Back’s point: ETH posted a roughly 56% gain over the last 24 months.

Bringing up the rear among the major assets is crude oil which saw only marginal growth over the last two years, with returns oscillating and ending flat by summer 2025..

Why Bitcoin keeps leading

The recent selloff has more to do with macroeconomic jitters, tariffs, and employment worries than any change in Bitcoin’s fundamental value proposition. Bitcoin’s volatility still tracks closely with broader market nerves during such risk-off stretches. But for two years straight, Bitcoin has shaken off the corrections like a champ and set the pace for asset growth.

Its predictable supply schedule, decentralized nature, and increasing adoption by both retail and institutional investors have kept the rally alive.

Meanwhile, Ethereum remains competitive but has not been able to outpace BTC, and gold’s reliable inflation hedge status has still meant far smaller returns. Crude oil continues to struggle under the weight of shifting energy trends and macroeconomic pressures, providing little of the performance or excitement seen in digital and financial assets.

Bitcoin’s short-term slumps may look dramatic, but pullbacks are part of its DNA and the data doesn’t lie: since mid-2023, BTC has trounced gold, U.S. stocks, Ethereum, and crude oil. If in doubt, zoom out, as ecoinometrics states:

“maybe it’s not worth panicking over a move that looks more sentiment-driven than based on fundamentals.”

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After reaching a new all-time high of $123,200, Bitcoin has retraced to the $116,000 level as profit-taking and shifting market sentiment begin to take shape. While the broader trend remains bullish, a key development has caught the attention of analysts and investors alike.

Top analyst Darkfost has flagged significant on-chain activity involving the so-called “80K whale”—a mysterious wallet cluster believed to be holding over 80,000 BTC from the Satoshi era. This entity recently transferred a substantial portion of its holdings to a wallet reportedly linked to Galaxy Digital, a major institutional player in the crypto space.

The move is raising eyebrows, as Galaxy Digital enforces strict KYC (Know Your Customer) protocols, suggesting that the identity behind the transfer is now known to the firm. While this could indicate an intention to sell through their OTC (Over-the-Counter) brokerage desk, it’s also possible that the whale is simply reallocating funds for asset management purposes, such as earning yield on dormant BTC.

40,000 BTC Sent to Galaxy Digital As Selling Activity Sparks Volatility

Darkfost has reported a significant movement in the Bitcoin network—40,000 BTC has been transferred to Galaxy Digital, one of the most prominent institutional players in the space. The transaction originated from wallet address bc1qmuxrzvnx34j8y6h9leg4zen5gnw7wmfmgp8v2p, which is now completely empty.

While this transfer is notable, it’s only part of the picture. Four other wallets from the same cluster still collectively hold 40,000 BTC—none of which have moved yet. The total amount of Bitcoin sent to exchanges or OTC brokers remains uncertain for now, but Darkfost noted that selling activity appears to be ongoing.

Such large-scale movements often trigger concerns in the market, and the potential for panic selling is real, especially given the scale and timing of this transfer following Bitcoin’s recent all-time high at $123,200. However, it’s important to contextualize the event within the broader market structure.

Despite the short-term volatility, Bitcoin’s fundamentals remain strong. Institutional interest continues to grow, supply on exchanges remains historically low, and long-term holders show no signs of mass exit. This development may cause temporary price fluctuations, but it’s unlikely to shake the long-term conviction many investors maintain in Bitcoin’s trajectory. As always, whale activity commands attention, but it rarely defines the entire trend.

BTC Drops To $116K After ATH

The 12-hour chart shows Bitcoin facing a sharp pullback after reaching its all-time high at $123,200. Currently trading around $116,509, BTC has dropped nearly 6% from its peak, signaling a period of increased selling pressure. Notably, this correction was accompanied by a spike in red volume, indicating strong profit-taking activity or large sell-side orders—possibly linked to the recent whale movement toward Galaxy Digital.

Despite the retrace, Bitcoin still trades well above its key moving averages: the 50 SMA ($109,353), 100 SMA ($107,729), and 200 SMA ($101,375). These levels continue to slope upward, reflecting a healthy longer-term trend. The $114,000–$117,000 zone now acts as short-term support, aligning with the last consolidation area before the breakout.

Holding this range will be crucial for bulls to maintain momentum. A breakdown below could trigger a retest of the $109,300 support, a level that capped price action through much of June. On the upside, a recovery above $119K would suggest that buyers are stepping back in.

Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView

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Blockchain tracking service Whale Alert posted a major alert showing that 129,392 ETH was transferred from an unidentified wallet to Coinbase as the Ethereum price tumbled. On-chain data from Etherscan shows that this particular wallet had not been involved in the transfer of large ETH volumes since November 2022. This sudden reactivation and deposit into a centralized exchange opens up speculation of a looming selloff, especially given the timing of the transfer.

Massive ETH Transfer As Middle East Tensions Escalate

Whale transaction tracker Whale Alerts, which initially reported the transfer on the social media platform X, noted that at the time of the transfer, these 129,392 ETH were worth $312,981,377. The timing of the transfer is noteworthy because it occurred when the price of Ethereum failed to hold above $2,500 and had already begun to struggle to stay above $2,400. 

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Etherscan’s tracking of on-chain transactions indicates that the unknown wallet “0xd47b,” which was involved in the transfer, has been relatively inactive since late 2022. Particularly, its last transaction was an inflow of 6,469 ETH from another wallet linked to Coinbase. 

The latest transfer into Coinbase leans more towards the possibility of a selloff through the exchange. Since then, the Ethereum price has lost a key support level at $2,450. Its price has fallen notably in the past 48 hours. 

Although other factors are clearly contributing to the dip, particularly new geopolitical tensions after the US launched attacks on Iran, this whale deposit into Coinbase may have increased the downward pressure. Exchange inflows of this magnitude are a precursor to liquidation, particularly now that investor sentiment is on edge.

Bearish Setup Confirms Downside Targets

The technical picture for Ethereum is now turning bearish, at least in the short term. Technical analysis of Ethereum’s 4-hour chart on the TradingView platform shows a clear bearish breakdown setup after Ethereum broke below a crucial support line at $2,362. That support level has now been breached, and confirmation of the breakdown amplifies a bearish case moving forward. 

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Chart Image From TradingView

The chart above, which includes overlays of the Ichimoku Cloud, shows a fading bullish momentum in the past few days. Previous failed attempts to break resistance have left Ethereum in a vulnerable zone, and the recent whale selloff may have delivered the final push needed to trigger this leg down. 

If the current trajectory continues, Ethereum could be on its way to retesting lows below $2,000. According to the TradingView analysis, potential reversal targets are at $2,151 and $1,954, with a third possible level at $1,750 if the selloff is more than expected. At the time of writing, Ethereum is trading at $2,290, down by 5.5% and 10% in the past 24 hours and seven days, respectively.

Featured image from Dall.E, chart from TradingView.com

CoinRoutes chief executive Dave Weisberger detonated a fresh round of anxiety in the XRP market on Monday when he asked, on Scott Melker’s podcast, whether Ripple Labs could finance a takeover of Circle “for $10 to $20 billion” without off-loading roughly $10 billion in XRP. “Who’s going to buy the $10 billion worth of XRP they would need to sell out of their treasury?” Weisberger said, warning that a sudden supply surge could overwhelm order books and “hammer the price.”

Is A XRP Sell-Off Conceivable?

Within hours, pro-XRP attorney Fred Rispoli fired back on X. “I love @daveweisberger1, but on this point he is mcgloning so hard,” he wrote, invoking Bloomberg strategist Mike McGlone’s reputation for bearish hyperbole. “Just based on what I’m getting offered for my Ripple shares on the secondary market, I don’t think Ripple would even have to sell one XRP to buy Circle.” Rispoli agreed that Ripple cannot raise $10 billion in pure cash, yet insisted the company could “easily afford the acquisition for a mix of cash and debt” and a heavy equity-swap.

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When Weisberger replied that Circle’s board would likely demand hard dollars unless it accepted Ripple equity or XRP “without a haircut,” Rispoli dug in. “No way to get $10B in cash—and $10B is too high anyway,” he wrote, citing late-2024 private-research valuations that placed Ripple at $15 billion excluding its ~36 billion escrowed XRP. If Circle’s price tag fell to $7–9 billion, he said, Ripple could close with “$1–3 billion cash on hand, a heavy stock exchange, and debt,” especially with “all that GCC money sloshing around crypto world right now.” Rispoli conceded it would be “a reach” but “doable without meaningfully selling XRP.”

Weisberger acknowledged the math—“That’s a reasonable analysis,” he wrote—yet cautioned that any price at the upper end of Rispoli’s range “could be some short-term pain for us XRP holders.”

Ripple’s tender-offer buyback in January 2024 valued the company at $11.3 billion, disclosing more than $1 billion in cash and about $25 billion in digital assets—mostly XRP—on its books. The firm still controls roughly 52 billion XRP (about 40 percent of supply), though 36 billion sit in timed escrow releases, limiting immediate access. At today’s $2.20 spot price, the spendable portion is worth a little under $35 billion, but moving even a fraction quickly would collide with thin venue depth—a point Weisberger hammered home.

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Ripple’s cash pile also shrank after its $1.25 billion purchase of prime broker Hidden Road in April, a deal settled with a blend of cash, equity and RLUSD stablecoins. That acquisition suggests the company prefers hybrid structures, bolstering Rispoli’s claim that Treasury XRP need not flood the market.

Is Circle Even For Sale?

The debate may be academic. Circle, issuer of USDC, has repeatedly declared it “not for sale” while marching toward a New York Stock Exchange listing that now targets a $7.2 billion valuation. Ripple’s rumored approach earlier this spring reportedly topped $5 billion, well below Weisberger’s stress case and within Rispoli’s “doable” band, but Circle rebuffed the talks and updated its S-1 two weeks later, enlarging the float rather than seeking a buyer.

Strategically, Ripple already fields its own dollar-token RLUSD, launched in January and positioned by president Monica Long as “complementary to XRP, not a competitor.” Absorbing USDC’s issuer would instantly rocket Ripple towards the size of Tether.

Even under Rispoli’s optimistic structure, Ripple might still need to liquidate several hundred million dollars’ worth of XRP for working capital and closing costs. At current volumes, unloading just 500 million XRP (≈ $1.1 billion) would equal half a week of global turnover—enough to distort price unless executed as private blocks.

At press time, XRP traded at $2.19.

Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin Short-Term Holder MVRV Could Flag These Levels As Important

In a new post on X, CryptoQuant author Axel Adler Jr has talked about the trend in the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) Ratio of the Bitcoin short-term holders.

The MVRV Ratio is an indicator that keeps track of the ratio between the Bitcoin Market Cap and Realized Cap. The former represents the value currently held by the investors as a whole, while the latter that initially invested by them. As such, this ratio tells us about the profit-loss situation of the network.

When the value of this metric is greater than 1, it means the average investor on the chain is holding a net unrealized profit. On the other hand, it being under the threshold implies the dominance of loss among the holders.

In the context of the current topic, the MVRV Ratio of only a specific part of the market is of interest: the short-term holders (STHs). The STHs refer to the Bitcoin investors who purchased their coins within the past 155 days.

The members of this cohort tend not to be too resolute, so they often react to market happenings. In particular, whenever the profit held by them gets too high, a mass selloff from them can become probable, as they look to realize their gains.

Now, here is the chart shared by the analyst that shows the trend in the Bitcoin STH MVRV Ratio over the last few years:

As is visible in the above graph, the Bitcoin STH MVRV Ratio fell under the 1 mark earlier in the year as the asset’s price declined below the average cost basis of the group.

With the latest recovery rally, the cryptocurrency has managed to break back above the line, putting STHs back into gains. So far, the MVRV Ratio has only reached the 1.09 mark, which isn’t too high when compared to past rallies. As such, it’s possible that the STHs may not be tempted to realize profits en masse just yet.

In the chart, Adler Jr has highlighted two levels where profitability is high enough that significant selling pressure can indeed become likely to arise from this cohort: the 1.25 and 1.35 STH MVRV Ratios. At present, the former is situated at $118,000 and the latter at $128,000.

It now remains to be seen whether Bitcoin will rally high enough to retest these levels—and if it does, whether the STH selloff will act as resistance.

BTC Price

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $103,200, up over 2% in the last seven days.

The broader market indexes soared on Monday, May 12, in response to news that the U.S. and China would pause their reciprocal tariffs on most goods for 90 days — a move that built on the momentum from the trade deal framework that the U.S. and U.K. revealed at the end of last week.

As of Monday’s close, the S&P 500 (^GSPC 0.10%) was down just 0.6% year to date  — an astonishing rebound considering the index was down by more than 15% on the year at the nadir of its sell-off in early April.

While it’s great to see portfolio balances recover, those gains will matter little if they are fleeting, and investors are likely wondering if this bounce is the real deal or a head fake.

Either way, it’s important to focus on quality companies during volatile periods. But here’s why I think the worst of the 2025 stock market sell-off may be over, and what I’d recommend you do if the market keeps rallying.

Image source: Getty Images.

An end in sight

There’s no perfect science for knowing when a sell-off is about to start nor for gauging when one is over. But there are some simple indicators you can use to gauge market sentiment.

The simplest is the relationship between stock market sectors. When investors are optimistic about the outlook for the economy and corporate profits, growth-focused and cyclical sectors like tech, consumer discretionary, communications, financials, and industrials tend to do well. But when investors are fearful, then defensive and “safe” sectors such as utilities, consumer staples, and healthcare usually outperform the benchmarks.

Similarly, investors often turn to hard assets like gold during times of uncertainty. At one point in late April, gold prices were up by over 30% year to date while the S&P 500 was down more than 12%.

Another good indicator to watch is the CBOE Volatility Index, commonly known as the VIX. It measures the implied volatility of short-term options on the S&P 500. If investors are willing to pay more for a call option because they think the market will go up a lot in the short term, or a put option to protect against downside risk, then that will lead to higher volatility.

The VIX was at its lowest point of the year when the S&P 500 was near its all-time high in late February. Then, shortly after President Trump unveiled his global tariffs on April 2 (“Liberation Day”), the VIX spiked in lockstep with a massive sell-off in the S&P 500.

Data by YCharts.

In the last few weeks, the VIX has been falling and the S&P 500 has been climbing, a combination that could signal that the worst of the sell-off is over.

Great companies can sell off for bad reasons

The last month and a half or so have been a great lesson on the pitfalls of getting caught up in stock market volatility and letting emotions drive your investment decisions. It also shows the degree to which the market despises uncertainty.

The steep tariffs that Trump imposed led to a host of countries imposing their own higher tariffs on U.S. exports. The escalating tensions put the U.S. on the brink of an all-out trade war. Corporate leaders didn’t shy away from outlining the effects these tariffs would have on their businesses.

For example, Nvidia said it would be taking a $5.5 billion charge in its fiscal 2026 first quarter. Shares of Apple and Nike got crushed due to their exposure to China, both as a manufacturing hub and as a major market for sales.

However, strong results from top tech companies in the recent earnings season were a reminder that much of the broad market sell-off was based on fears of an economic downturn that had yet to materialize.

Microsoft reported phenomenal results and reaffirmed its upbeat revenue and operating margin guidance.

Meta Platforms ramped up its data center and artificial intelligence investments, and management forecast higher capital expenditures this year.

Alphabet reported steadily rising revenue and high margins. It also raised its dividend.

Outside of big tech, several companies saw their stock prices get crushed for the wrong reasons. For example, American Express reported excellent results and reaffirmed its full-year guidance. Its long-term investment thesis looks stronger than ever with the company expanding its network while displaying impeccable risk management. Yet the stock got clobbered, and its price-to-earnings ratio was compressed to bargain-bin levels.

Microsoft, Meta, Alphabet, and American Express are just some of the many examples of companies that were doing just fine even when trade war tensions were hot, yet their stock prices fell anyway.

Quality wins in the long run

Market sell-offs can be swift and brutal. When your screen flashes red with no end in sight, it’s easy to get caught up in fear.

However, companies with strong balance sheets don’t need to overhaul their capital spending plans just because new policies in Washington appear liable to throw a wrench in a few quarters of results. Investors can take a similar approach by not overhauling their investment portfolios based on factors that don’t pertain to the underlying investment theses of their holdings.

Resisting the urge to take action can be difficult, but I’ve found that one of the best ways to handle volatility is to invest in a way that limits pressure.

Pressure can come in different forms. But some of the simplest ways to mitigate pressure are to invest with a long-term mindset with money that you won’t need anytime soon. Also, stick to holding shares of companies that you understand and that have strong fundamentals. Lastly, accept that rough conditions can get worse before they get better.

The same approach applies when the market is going up. You can eliminate pressure on yourself by recognizing that you don’t have to time the very bottom to buy, nor wait to buy stocks until you can get them at incredible prices. Even if you’re feeling like you missed out on the bargain-bin prices from recent weeks, that’s OK. The real wins come from investing in top companies and holding them over the long term, not from trying to capitalize perfectly on short-term periods of market volatility.