The sell-side risk ratio for long-term holders has only shown a modest uptick. On Mar. 23, this ratio sat at 745.8μ and gradually climbed to 0.001679 by Apr. 10. This increase is statistically minor, especially when contrasted with the sharp movements seen in short-term cohorts. It suggests that long-term holders are not engaging in panic selling or strategic exits despite geopolitical escalation and increased noise in the derivatives and ETF markets.

Their behavior instead aligns with a phase of ongoing accumulation. This group’s 30-day net position change has remained positive for an entire month, rising from 0.17% on Mar. 12 to 2.19% by Apr. 10. This indicates that coins held for long durations continue to move into stronger hands, either through direct acquisition or passive aging.

This accumulation is particularly noteworthy when juxtaposed with price action. Bitcoin traded above $82,000 in the days leading up to April 10, only to see a sharp drawdown that brought prices closer to the $76,000 level. The fact that long-term holders are still adding to positions during this price instability implies that they are unfazed by the current retracement and view the prevailing market environment as part of a larger accumulation phase. Historically, long-term holders tend to distribute during periods of euphoria and aggressive price discovery, not during geopolitical or macro-driven pullbacks.

The behavior of short-term holders paints a different picture. This group has been much more reactive, with the sell-side risk ratio fluctuating within a broader and more volatile range. Since the beginning of the year, this metric has moved between 425μ and 0.001855.

In the most recent stretch from April 6 to April 10, it jumped from 713μ to 0.001302, following the escalated tensions between the US and China, a broad sell-off in risk assets, and a meaningful outflow from spot Bitcoin ETFs. This sudden increase in sell-side risk from short-term participants suggests heightened sensitivity to price and macro triggers.

Unlike their long-term counterparts, short-term holders tend to have weaker convictions, higher leverage exposure, and a shorter time horizon. Their propensity to sell in reaction to volatility amplifies intraday swings and contributes to short-term liquidity stress. This is especially relevant given that the broader market has faced a $450 million outflow from Bitcoin ETFs over just a few sessions. The confluence of short-term selling pressure and ETF redemptions generates a reflexive loop where falling prices are exacerbated by weak hands selling into the fear.

However, the structural implication of this divergence is stabilizing rather than destabilizing. Short-term selling, in isolation, does not inherently compromise Bitcoin’s long-term trajectory. What matters is whether long-term holders respond to these sell-offs by reducing their own exposure. That has not happened so far. The persistent accumulation of long-term holders, even as the market corrects, implies an ongoing belief in the long-term thesis and suggests that the market is undergoing short-term rebalancing.

It is important to consider the broader macro backdrop to contextualize these behaviors. China’s announcement of a 125% tariff on US goods has sharply elevated geopolitical friction while pressuring global risk markets.

Gold has rallied as capital seeks safety, oil has declined amid demand fears, and US equity futures have weakened. Meanwhile, Bitcoin has struggled to find a clear direction due to its dual role as a risk-on speculative asset and a hedge against macroeconomic stress. In this context, it is natural to expect participants with lower time preferences to exit while more strategic capital consolidates positions.

The post Long-term holders continue to accumulate as short-term sellers react to market stress appeared first on CryptoSlate.

Bitcoin (BTC) faces a new “consolidation zone” as exchange inflows tag multiyear lows, new analysis says.

In a post on X on April 1, Axel Adler Jr., a contributor to onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant, declared that Bitcoin sellers had “dried up.”

Average exchange inflows down 64% since November

Bitcoin sell-side pressure has eased considerably since its first push above the $100,000 mark in late 2024, data shows. 

Analyzing BTC inflows to major crypto exchanges, Adler revealed a sharp drop in the 7-day average total sent for sale.

“The average selling pressure on top exchanges has dropped from 81K to 29K BTC per day,” he summarized alongside a CryptoQuant chart. 

“Welcome to the zone of asymmetric demand.”

On March 23, 7-day average inflows hit their lowest levels since May 2023, when BTC/USD traded at less than $30,000.

Given that current prices are almost three times that amount, Adler sees the potential for light at the end of the tunnel for the 2025 Bitcoin bull market correction.

“The market has successfully absorbed waves of profit-taking following the break above $100K,” he concluded. 

“Sellers have dried up, and buyers seem comfortable with current price levels – setting the stage for a structural supply shortage. April-May could turn into a consolidation zone – a calm before the next impulse.”

Binance inflows hint at a “more neutral stance”

As Cointelegraph reported, signs already hint that market sentiment has become aligned with price reality.

Related: Bitcoin trader issues ‘overbought’ warning as BTC price eyes $84K

The Coinbase Premium, which acts as a proxy for US exchange demand, continues to circle neutral levels as time goes on, recovering from negative territory despite no real price rebound.

That said, short-term analysis warns of a fresh uptick in inflows this week — with the exception not of Coinbase but global exchange Binance.

“Short Term Holders are sending significantly less BTC to Binance—only 6,300 BTC, compared to an average of 24,700 BTC to other exchanges,” CryptoQuant contributor Joao Wedson, founder and CEO of data analysis platform Alphractal, noted in one of its “Quicktake” blog posts. 

“This suggests lower selling pressure on Binance, with many traders possibly adopting a more neutral stance.”

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Bitcoin’s short-term price direction remains uncertain, as analysts and investors are divided on whether BTC will break into a new all-time high (ATH) or face selling pressure into lower prices. The price has been trapped in a narrow range for the past twelve days, holding above $94K and below the $100K mark, with neither bulls nor bears able to take full control of the market.

This period of sideways trading has created speculation about an imminent major move, as Bitcoin continues to consolidate within these key levels. CryptoQuant data reveals that at the current levels, the number of sellers willing to sell at a loss has dropped to a minimum, a signal that market participants are holding their BTC instead of panic-selling. Historically, such conditions indicate that price volatility is on the horizon, as supply remains tight while demand is expected to increase.

With sentiment split between a breakout or a deeper correction, traders closely watch the $100K resistance and the $94K support to determine the next big move. If BTC pushes above the $100K mark, a rally into price discovery could follow. However, a breakdown below $94K could trigger further selling pressure.

Bitcoin Metrics Suggest A Big Move Is Coming

Bitcoin’s price action has remained stagnant over the past two weeks, trading within a narrow range between $94K and $100K. However, a positive outlook suggests that BTC is gearing up for a massive move into new all-time highs (ATH). Analysts speculate that this recent consolidation phase is the calm before the storm, setting the stage for the next major breakout.

Despite short-term uncertainty, Bitcoin remains structurally bullish, holding above key support levels and maintaining its long-term uptrend. While investors are divided on whether BTC will break higher or face another correction, on-chain data hints at a tightening supply.

CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler shared an analysis on X suggesting that at the current levels, the number of sellers willing to sell at a loss has dropped to a minimum. This indicates that holders are refusing to part with their BTC, signaling confidence in higher prices ahead. Adler adds that, at this stage, there’s nothing to do but wait for BTC’s next move—suggesting that a breakout or breakdown is imminent.

With market conditions tightening and volatility expected to return soon, this week will be crucial in determining Bitcoin’s short-term direction. If BTC pushes above $100K, a massive rally into price discovery could follow. However, if it breaks below $94K, further selling pressure may emerge.

BTC Consolidates Above Key Demand

Bitcoin is trading at $95,600, maintaining a sideways trend for nearly two weeks, fluctuating between $94K and $100K. This narrow range has led to uncertainty, as neither bulls nor bears have taken control of the price action.

The $95K level remains a critical support, serving as a key demand zone where buyers have consistently stepped in to prevent further downside. Holding above this level would signal strength and create an opportunity for BTC to test higher supply levels. However, bulls face a major challenge, as they must reclaim $98K and eventually push above $100K to confirm a breakout into new highs.

If BTC fails to break above resistance, the market could continue to experience choppy price action, delaying the next major move. A breakdown below $95K could result in a retest of lower demand zones, with potential downside toward $91K–$93K.

Traders are watching for a decisive move in either direction, as volatility is expected to return. The next few days will be crucial in determining whether BTC can regain bullish momentum or if a deeper correction is on the horizon.

Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView