05 September Chart Decoder Series: Average True Range – Volatility Tools to Help You Select Your Target and Get Profit

Welcome to Chart decoder seriesconvert professional trading tools into strategies you can use today.

So far, we’ve been working on:

Today we explore ATR (average true range). This is an indicator that solves one of the biggest puzzles in a transaction. What risk is there and where should the stops be placed?

What ATR really says to you

The ATR was developed by J. Welles Wilder Jr. in 1978 as part of a groundbreaking work on technical analysis. Unlike most metrics focusing on price direction, ATR measures only one thing. It’s volatility.

The ATR answers an important question: “How long does this market normally move?”

Calculation: The ATR examines the “true range” of each period. This is the largest.

1. Current high – Low current
2. |Current High – Previous Closed|
3. |Current Low – Previous Closed|

Next, move the average of these true range values ​​over the selected period (14 is the standard for Bitfinex, but you can adjust it to any time you like)

Absolute values ​​ensure that the ATR always shows a positive number, regardless of whether the gap is up or down.

Why is ATR important:

ATR is beyond context. It forms the way traders manage risk, size locations and set exits. Rather than relying solely on intestinal sensation, it provides an objective measure of market behavior that directly informs all transactional decisions.

1. Smarter stop loss

Placement of stops without an ATR is basically guesswork. The ATR indicates what is considered “normal” movement and cannot be thrown away in your daily swing.

• Scalping Stop (0.5 x ATR): Used by high frequency traders who want a quick ex with the first sign of trouble. Effective only during low volatility periods where market movements are predictable
• Standard stop (1 x ATR): Provides ample space for normal price fluctuations while maintaining reasonable risk management
• Stop position (2xATR): For traders who hold a position for several days that needs to survive the normal daily volatility cycle without a premature exit

2. Size your position appropriately

Professional risk management is the maintenance of consistent risk exposure regardless of market conditions. Instead of trading the same size in all conditions, adapt smaller positions when the volatility is high, and adapt larger positions when it’s mild.

3. Volatility breakout spots

Breakouts with expanded ATRs demonstrate institutional participation and true directional beliefs. If price breaks a critical level but the ATR remains flat, it often indicates weak follow-through and a high probability of inversion. The most powerful setup occurs when the price breaks a critical level with an ATR expansion, checking both direction and momentum.

4. Set profit targets

ATR multiple provides a reasonable framework for setting realistic profit targets and helps you move away from guessing towards consistency.

• Conservatives: 1.5 x ATR
• Standard: 2 x ATR
• Aggressive: 3xATR

Actual example: BTC/USD analysis

price: $110,500
ATR (14): 3,033

This tells us:

Bitcoin’s recent average daily exercise is about $3,033. This gives traders a clear context.

• The $3,000 move is no exception. Matches 1xATR
• Approx. 3,000 (1 x ATR) stops losses about normal breathing patio
• A profit target of $4,500-6,000 (1.5-2xATR) is realistic for swing trading
• ATR at this level shows a moderately volatile market that requires careful position sizing and risk management.

ATR + Other Indicators:

When combined with other tools, the ATR becomes even more powerful.

ATR + Bollinger Band: This move is more certain when you hit the extreme Bollinger band with a high-priced ATR. A low ATR in the band may suggest that extremes are not retained.

ATR + RSI: Excessive conditions for RSI with elevated ATR often mark important bases. High volatility shows true sales pressure, and it sells too much and makes the reading more meaningful.

ATR + MACD: MACD crossovers with an ATR expansion are more reliable than those contracted by ATR. Volatility confirms that there is a conviction for a change in momentum.

ATR + Volume + obv: Triple combination: obv points to the direction of smart marten, volume points to immediate conviction, and ATR shows how much to expect. If there is all alignment, there is a high paraability setup.

Bonus Read: ATR + RSI Behavior

price: $110,600
ATR (14): 3,033
RSI (14): 39.12 (nearly excessive)

This tells us:

• The RSI of 39 is below neutral (50), but has surpassed the 30 overselling threshold, still showing bearish momentum rather than extreme.
• ATR of 3,033 indicates an increase in daily volatility. This means that the swing is big.

For traders:

• Bearish rsi + high atr = Sales pressure is active and backed by volatility.
• If RSI approaches 30 while the ATR is high, the market is not just going down, but is being sold by force. Overselling conditions will carry more weight.
• If the RSI begins to climb while the ATR remains high, the bounce may have some strength behind it rather than simply a weak recovery.

ATR limitations to remember:

Delay indicator
The ATR is based on past price transfers. It tells us what volatility is, not necessarily what it is.

There is no direction bias
ATRs don’t tell you what direction the market will move. It’s just a typical amount of movement.

Smoothed data
Like all moving averages, ATRs can be slower to respond to sudden changes in volatility.

Market context is important
ATRs in trending markets behave differently than horizontal markets. Always consider the larger picture.

Pro tips for ATR:

1. Use multiple time frames

• Daily ATR: For swing trading and position sizing
• 4-hour ATR: For day trading setup
• 1 hour ATR: For accurate input timing

2. Economic calendar integration

ATRs often spike major news events. Plan position sizing and stop placement accordingly.

3. Weekend benefits

Crypto Markets is open 24/7, but volatility patterns often change over the weekend. Consider individual ATR calculations for weekday and weekends.

Try it with Bitfinex:

1. Log in to Bitfinex
2. Choose your main trading pair
3. Add an ATR indicator (starts with the standard 14 periods. The length can be adjusted within the ATR settings)
4. Observe how ATR changes in different market conditions
5. Practice using ATR for stop loss placement
6. Note the correlation between ATR and key price movements

Bitfinex. Original Bitcoin exchange.

]]> https://earlybirdsinvest.com/chart-decoder-series-average-true-range-volatility-tools-to-help-you-select-your-target-and-get-profit/feed/ 0 57289 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/engineering-news-record-select-construction-costs-and-material-prices/ https://earlybirdsinvest.com/engineering-news-record-select-construction-costs-and-material-prices/#respond Wed, 23 Apr 2025 07:07:36 +0000 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/engineering-news-record-select-construction-costs-and-material-prices/

Welcome back to the latest edition Substack Blog that focuses on labor and construction material costs. Engineering News Record (ENR) history that can be traced back to 1874. The publication has its roots in two separate publications, Engineer & Surveyor and The Plumber and Sanitary Engineer. The first issue of Engineering News-Record was published on April 5, 1917. On January 1st, 1987, the acronym ENR was adopted as the title of the bi-weekly magazine. The charts that follow use data that are courtesy of ENR magazine that is published 26 times a year. Historical data was pulled from microfiche copies of the magazine obtained from the New York Public Library. ENR magazine is only a small portion of the products offered by Engineer News Record and we recommend readers, particularly those with an interest in engineering and construction, take the time to view the ENR website to learn more at…

https://www.enr.com/

Setting aside the constant “chug” higher over the long-term and a normal seasonal boost in Common Labor Costs (often driven by volatile weather conditions) and considering the effects of potential shortages of the common labor pool driven by the current political climate, the Common Labor Index is up 3.12% from this time last year. The five-month moving average (red line) of the 12-Month Rate of Change in the lower panel is noteworthy.

The Skilled Labor Index has also seen a large “pop” in the 12-Month Rate of Change since last April. What economic or labor demand fundamentals that caused the sharp drop in the second quarter of last year is not my forte to explain, but there has been a sharp rebound as the ENR Skilled Labor Index is up 4.36% YoY.

After two years of declining prices, a sharp jump in the 20-City Average Price of 16 Guage Stainless Steel Sheet, up 11.71% since this time last year. At the risk of stating the obvious, “stock piling”?

Since Q3 of last year Asphalt prices have jumped sharply higher and are now up 52.70% over the past 12 months even with oil prices down from $95 in October of last year (currently in the low 60s). As can be seen below the move in the ENR 20-City Average Price of Cutback MC800 has been in concert with a higher move in Crushed Stone.

After a brief dip in the ENR 20-City Average Price of Crushed Stone in the 3rd quarter of last year the per ton price for Base Course has lifted off again and is up 40.06% since this time last year.

The ENR 20-City Price of Light Weight Concrete Block had moved sideways for the better part of a year and a half until it rose to new highs at the start of this year and is now up 10.93% over the past twelve months.

The 20-City Average cost of 36” Corrugated Steel Pipe has risen steadily since the second quarter of 2022 and last month it marked a all-time high. It is currently up 46.53% since this time last year.

Data is courtesy of Engineering News Record

Charts are courtesy of Optuma whose charting software enables anyone to visualize any price data. To receive a 30-day trial of Optuma charting software go to…

www.optuma.com/TMC.

What you need to know

• Xiaomi announces its Android 16 Developer Preview Program for those creating apps for its upcoming upgrade.
• The preview will provide developers with the tools needed to develop their apps to sort of issues, but it’s only accepting the Xiaomi 15 and 14T Pro models.
• Google recently achieved “Platform Stability” with Android 16, meaning its on track to deliver the next major OS in Q2.

Xiaomi is in the early stages of Android 16 development, and those creating apps can get a head start, too.

The Chinese OEM announced the start of its Android 16 Developer Preview Program for early app development (via Location Tracking Hub). Similar to Google, Xiaomi is encouraging interested developers to take part in its preview program, which provides all the tools they will need to “improve the compatibility” and develop their Android 16-supported apps. Interested parties are restricted to a pair of phones to start.

Xiaomi states its developer preview is accepting the Xiaomi 15 and the 14T Pro.

The announcement post states developers can get started in one of two ways: a local update or a fastboot update. For the former, devs must ensure their Xiaomi 15 is running OS2.0.109.0.VOCMIXM or higher. Owners of a 14T Pro need to have installed OS2.0.103.0.VNNMIXM or higher. The company has provided a complete guide on “how to” get started with the developer preview.

Xiaomi’s post didn’t tease any new features, so it’s unclear if developers can expect to see anything new before a more public beta for users drops.

An Early Android 16

We’re nearing the full release of a much earlier Android OS upgrade from Google as Android 16 reached “Platform Stability.” The update in late March marked a major milestone for the next software update as Google progresses with a rapid timeline for the future of Android. Platform Stability means all in-app behaviors have been finalized, and developers are given one last call for final changes to their apps.

April will hold any last-minute adjustments from Google and developers before it drops in users’ hands. Google said, “We’re putting additional energy into working with our device partners to bring the Q2 release to as many devices as possible.” Android 16 is expected to launch by the end of June.

So, it’s no surprise that Xiaomi is getting started on a developer preview of its own while it toils away at its HyperOS Android 16-skin.

Other OEMs have also started working on their Android 16 versions, like OnePlus and its flagship 13 model. Consumers with that device are getting their first glimpse of Android 16 as the company prepares for a rapid launch.

The Bank of Russia has proposed a three-year experimental legal framework that would allow a limited group of investors to trade cryptocurrencies, marking a potential shift in the country’s digital asset regulations.

The central bank announced on March 12 that it had submitted proposals to the Russian government for discussion. The initiative would grant access to crypto trading to investors who hold at least $1.1 million in securities and deposits.

However, the proposal also includes penalties for violations of the experimental regime.

According to the statement:

“The Bank of Russia still does not consider cryptocurrency as a means of payment. Therefore, it proposes to also introduce a ban on settlements between residents on transactions with cryptocurrency outside the experimental legal regime, as well as establish liability for violating the ban.”

Despite the proposal, the country’s stance on digital assets remains restrictive. The central bank reiterated that retail crypto payments will remain prohibited even if the proposed trial moves forward.

Russia banned crypto payments under its “On Digital Financial Assets” law, which took effect in January 2021.

Market transparency and opportunities

The Bank of Russia said the experimental program’s purpose is to enhance market transparency and establish regulatory standards for cryptocurrency service providers. It also aims to expand investment opportunities for experienced traders willing to accept heightened financial risks.

The proposal also includes provisions to allow qualified financial institutions to participate in the trial, suggesting that regulated companies could be permitted to invest in digital assets. This could pave the way for Russian firms to adopt a Bitcoin accumulation strategy similar to Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy).

Under the proposed framework, direct crypto trading will be limited to select investors. However, all qualified investors will have access to derivative financial instruments and securities tied to cryptocurrency values.

The proposal follows Russia’s ongoing efforts to explore digital assets for international trade. In December 2024, Finance Minister Anton Siluanov confirmed that the country had been actively experimenting with crypto transactions for foreign trade under a separate experimental legal regime implemented in September 2024.

The government has yet to formally approve the Bank of Russia’s proposal. If enacted, the framework could mark a significant step toward integrating digital assets into Russia’s financial system while maintaining strict controls on domestic transactions.

Welcome back to our Substack Blog that focuses on construction costs. Engineering News Record (ENR) history that can be traced back to 1874. The publication has its roots in two separate publications, Engineer & Surveyor and The Plumber and Sanitary Engineer. The first issue of Engineering News-Record was published on April 5, 1917. On January 1st, 1987, the acronym ENR was adopted as the title of the magazine. The charts that follow use data that are courtesy of ENR magazine that is published 26 times a year. Historical data was pulled from microfiche copies of the magazine obtained from the New York Public Library. ENR magazine is only a small portion of the products offered by Engineer News Record and we recommend readers, particularly those with an interest in engineering and construction, take the time to view the ENR website to learn more at…

https://www.enr.com/

Concrete Ready-Mix prices have continued to move higher but at a more subdued rate of change since April of last year, but nonetheless, they have notched a new record high in January and are up +10.50% since this time last year.

Base course crushed stone that is used to create a solid foundation for roads, driveways, and other structures have, after a brief dip in the middle of last year, risen sharply and are up 31.81% year-over-year.

The per ton price of MC800 Asphalt Paving has jumped since August of last year and is up 34.91% since January of last year.

After a near parabolic rise in the 20-City average price of Portland Cement during the third quarter of last year, prices have pulled back but are still up 20.43% year-over-year.

The ENR 20-City Average Price of Masonry Sand has continued to rise at a startling rate and is now up 56.18% year-over-year. More dramatic is the rise over the past five years, since January 2019, up 231.13%.

Concrete Sand

Concrete Sand registered another new high in January. The 20-City Average Price is up 46.94% year-over-year and since January 2019 prices are up 251.93%.

Data is courtesy of Engineering News Record

Charts are courtesy of Optuma whose charting software enables anyone to visualize any price data. To receive a 30-day trial of Optuma charting software go to

www.optuma.com/TMC.