A thread posted late on 4 August 2025 by Weiss Crypto analyst Juan Villaverde has ignited debate about a rarely discussed harbinger of Bitcoin price cycles. In a thread on X, the quantitative researcher argued that an “overlooked asset class”—one he says almost no-one monitors in a crypto context—consistently pivots months before Bitcoin does, offering what he calls “a sneak peek at major turning points.” Villaverde’s proprietary back-testing suggests the lag is approximately six months, enough lead time, he claims, to anticipate the apex of the current bull market in late November.

How Gold’s Trendlines Map The Bitcoin Price

“Many are aware that Bitcoin tends to follow global liquidity—with a roughly twelve-week lag,” Weiss Crypto wrote, setting the stage for the reveal. “But Juan Villaverde has quietly tracked a different early indicator… one that can signal where BTC is headed six months in advance.” In a follow-up post he teased, “That little-known indicator? [ … ]. Turns out, its price action often leads Bitcoin by several months—providing a sneak peek at major turning points.”

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Villaverde’s thesis rests on a data series stretching back to the advent of modern crypto markets. He points to the trough of December 2018, which, in his reconstruction, was foreshadowed by a significant low in the mystery market some weeks earlier. “After analysing years of data, Juan spotted a consistent pattern,” Weiss Crypto stated, quoting the analyst to the effect that “major lows [there] tend to precede major lows in Bitcoin.”

The same lead-lag cadence, Villaverde notes, flashed red in November 2021 when Bitcoin printed its all-time high even as the benchmark asset he tracks refused to break higher—an omen that presaged the 2022 bear market.

The model is not without blemishes. Weiss Crypto acknowledged “one exception in recent years—during the Russia–Ukraine invasion—where the Bitcoin relationship temporarily inverted due to macro chaos.” Yet Villaverde maintains the anomaly reinforces rather than weakens his conviction: exogenous geopolitical shocks can distort correlations, but once the shock dissipates the historic rhythm reasserts itself.

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Where does that leave the market in mid-2025? “According to Juan’s analysis,” the firm wrote, “the indicator is pointing to a major high in Bitcoin around late November 2025. That aligns perfectly with his Crypto Timing Model.” Villaverde cautions that the signal is dynamic, not deterministic. If the benchmark asset he watches “rallies above its April high,” it would imply “Bitcoin could march higher into 2026.” Conversely, any decisive breakdown would “be an early warning that crypto’s bull market may be nearing its end after November.”

Villaverde insists the relationship he has identified is robust because it focuses on magnitude rather than direction alone. “It’s not only the turns that matter,” he said in a direct message to this outlet, “but the amplitude of those turns.” By quantifying both, he argues, the signal captures investor psychology cycling from fear to greed and back again.

At press time, BTC traded at $114,522.

Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

HIVE Digital co-founder Frank Holmes stated this week that several sanctioned nations are actively mining Bitcoin (BTC) in secret, turning to the crypto as an alternative revenue stream in the face of U.S. financial restrictions.

Holmes made the claims during a recent interview with the Roundtable. He tied a recent drop in global mining difficulty to military strikes targeting power infrastructure in Iran, suggesting the country’s military was using energy resources to mine Bitcoin and generate hard currency.

The comments reflect a broader trend in which governments cut off from traditional financial systems are leveraging crypto mining to fill economic gaps.

Holmes said this is not limited to Iran, implying that other countries facing US sanctions are also participating in similar operations, though much of it remains undisclosed.

He further claimed that Bitcoin has become a strategic asset, especially for nations struggling to access dollars. Mining provides a direct route to accumulate value outside the traditional financial ecosystem.

Holmes said that disruptions to mining facilities can now be observed in network-level data such as hash rate fluctuations.

HIVE ramping up production

While pointing to adversaries of the US using crypto mining as a financial lifeline, HIVE Digital is pursuing growth in U.S.-aligned nations.

The company recently expanded its footprint in Paraguay, acquiring infrastructure to scale operations more rapidly. The decision required divesting a portion of its Bitcoin holdings, but Holmes described it as a strategic trade-off to accelerate production.

Paraguay’s supportive regulatory stance and energy resources make it a key location for HIVE’s expansion, particularly compared to more politically volatile countries in the region.

The move comes amid growing sentiment that Bitcoin mining will continue to flourish in jurisdictions aligned with U.S. economic interests, particularly under the current administration.

HIVE has now surpassed 14 exahashes per second (EH/s) in mining capacity, with a goal of reaching 25 EH/s by the end of November. At current output, the company is generating approximately $315 million in annualized revenue, placing it among the top contenders in terms of efficiency and scale.

The remarks highlight a shifting landscape where mining activity is not just about profitability, but increasingly intertwined with global alliances, sanctions evasion, and power projection through digital infrastructure.

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The big picture: A smartphone smuggled out of North Korea is offering a rare – and unsettling – glimpse into the extent of control Kim Jong Un’s regime exerts over its citizens, down to the very words they type. While the device appears outwardly similar to any modern smartphone, its software reveals a far more oppressive reality.

The phone was featured in a BBC video, which showed it powering on with an animated North Korean flag waving across the screen. While the report did not specify the brand, the design and user interface closely resembled those of a Huawei or Honor device.

It’s unclear whether these companies officially sell phones in North Korea, but if they do, the devices are likely customized with state-approved software designed to restrict functionality and facilitate government surveillance.

One of the more revealing – and darkly amusing – features was the phone’s automatic censorship of words deemed problematic by the state. For instance, when users typed oppa, a South Korean term used to refer to an older brother or a boyfriend, the phone automatically replaced it with comrade. A warning would then appear, admonishing the user that oppa could only refer to an older sibling.

Typing “South Korea” would trigger another change. The phrase was automatically replaced with “puppet state,” reflecting the language used in official North Korean rhetoric.

Then came the more unsettling features. The phone silently captured a screenshot every five minutes, storing the images in a hidden folder that users couldn’t access. According to the BBC, authorities could later review these images to monitor the user’s activity.

The device was smuggled out of North Korea by Daily NK, a Seoul-based media outlet specializing in North Korean affairs. After examining the phone, the BBC confirmed that the censorship mechanisms were deeply embedded in its software. Experts say this technology is designed not only to control information but also to reinforce state messaging at the most personal level.

Smartphone usage has grown in North Korea in recent years, but access remains tightly controlled. Devices cannot connect to the global internet and are subject to intense government surveillance.

The regime has reportedly intensified efforts to eliminate South Korean cultural influence, which it views as subversive. So-called “youth crackdown squads” have been deployed to enforce these rules, frequently stopping young people on the streets to inspect their phones and review text messages for banned language.

Some North Korean escapees have shared that exposure to South Korean dramas or foreign radio broadcasts played a key role in their decision to flee the country. Despite the risks, outside media continues to be smuggled in – often via USB sticks and memory cards hidden in food shipments. Much of this effort is supported by foreign organizations.

Image credit: BBC

An employee at a billion-dollar bank transferred a massive pile of cash from customer accounts without permission for his own purposes, according to the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC).

In a new filing, the FDIC alleges that while working as an international sales representative at the International Bank of Commerce in Laredo, Texas, Martin Fernandez, Jr. “made unauthorized transfers of approximately $123,563” from the accounts of two customers between July of 2018 and August of 2021.

According to the FDIC, Fernandez moved the money to three of his known associates.

The US banking regulator says that one of Fernandez’s victims was an International Bank of Commerce customer who wanted to open a new account. After the account was opened, Fernandez then helped the customer transfer funds to the newly created account on or about July 18th of 2019. The following day, Fernandez made multiple transfers from the customer’s newly created account to an associate without authorization.

Between five and seven months later, Fernandez made multiple unauthorized transfers from the same account to another associate without the customer’s permission.

Fast forward to between July 20th of 2020 and August 12th of 2021, Fernandez also initiated multiple unauthorized transfers from the account of another customer to yet another associate.

The banking regulator says that the former International Bank of Commerce employee has already been criminally charged.

“On October 19, 2023, Respondent entered a guilty plea in the District Court of Webb County, Texas, to one count of third degree felony theft based on the misconduct just summarized.”

The FDIC says Fernandez’s actions, which caused the International Bank of Commerce a financial loss, violated the law and constituted unsafe and unsound banking practices. Consequently, Fernandez is barred from working in US-based banks and other financial institutions regulated by the FDIC.

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Disclaimer: Opinions expressed at The Daily Hodl are not investment advice. Investors should do their due diligence before making any high-risk investments in Bitcoin, cryptocurrency or digital assets. Please be advised that your transfers and trades are at your own risk, and any losses you may incur are your responsibility. The Daily Hodl does not recommend the buying or selling of any cryptocurrencies or digital assets, nor is The Daily Hodl an investment advisor. Please note that The Daily Hodl participates in affiliate marketing.

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