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After setting a new all-time high of $124,500, Bitcoin is now battling to hold the $115,000 level as support. The bulls, who dominated just days ago, are struggling to spark a fresh rally, leaving the market in a delicate phase. While fundamentals such as institutional adoption and strong holder demand continue to support the broader uptrend, capital flows suggest a new dynamic is at play.

Several analysts note signs of capital rotation from Bitcoin into altcoins, a pattern that often marks transitions between phases of the market cycle. Ethereum, in particular, is emerging as a major destination for this shift.

Adding to the intrigue, on-chain intelligence firm Lookonchain has been tracking the movements of a long-dormant Bitcoin OG whale, who has reawakened with extraordinary activity. On Friday, the whale deposited 300 BTC ($34.86 million) into Hyperliquid to sell for Ethereum. His bold strategy is paying off: he’s now sitting on over $100 million in unrealized profits.

The whale currently holds a 135,265 ETH ($581M) long position at a $4,295 average entry, up $58 million, and also accumulated 122,226 ETH ($535M) spot at a $4,377 average, up $42 million. This aggressive rotation underscores a pivotal moment—one where Bitcoin consolidates, but altcoins, led by Ethereum, may capture the spotlight.

Bitcoin OG’s Bold Rotation Into Ethereum

According to Lookonchain, the mysterious Bitcoin OG whale continues to dominate market headlines with aggressive on-chain moves. Most recently, he transferred another 4,000 BTC (~$460 million) into exchanges, where the funds were converted into Ethereum. This marks yet another large-scale repositioning that has captured the attention of analysts and investors alike.

So far, the whale has accumulated a staggering 179,448 ETH (~$806 million) at an average price of $4,490, alongside a 135,265 ETH ($581 million) long position that remains open. These bold allocations underscore a decisive rotation strategy away from Bitcoin and into Ethereum, suggesting a bet on ETH’s outperformance in the coming phase of the cycle.

The implications are significant. On one hand, such a massive capital shift highlights growing institutional-style conviction in Ethereum as it pushes through all-time highs and challenges Bitcoin’s dominance. On the other hand, it raises concerns about short-term volatility.

Analysts warn that despite the bullish outlook, a shakeout may occur before sustained gains materialize. With leverage in derivatives markets climbing and liquidity thinning in spot trading, sharp pullbacks could easily flush out overextended positions.

Bitcoin Vs. Ethereum: Weekly Chart Analysis

The ETH/BTC weekly chart shows Ethereum gaining significant ground against Bitcoin after a long downtrend that lasted from mid-2022 to early 2025. ETH has now rallied to the 0.041 BTC level, posting strong bullish candles and reclaiming key moving averages. The 50-week SMA (blue) has just been broken to the upside, and price is testing the 100-week SMA (green), an important resistance zone. If ETH manages to sustain momentum above this level, the next key target lies near the 200-week SMA (red) around 0.055 BTC.

This rotation is especially important because ETH has been underperforming Bitcoin for over two years. The recent surge signals a potential capital rotation from BTC into ETH, a trend reinforced by large institutional buys and whales shifting positions into Ethereum.

On the downside, if ETH/BTC faces rejection at the current resistance, the pair could retest support around 0.035 BTC, which aligns with previous consolidation. However, momentum indicators suggest strength is currently with Ethereum.

Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView

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Altcoins advanced sharply last week while Bitcoin (BTC) held near record levels, shifting market leadership toward higher-beta tokens, according to the latest edition of the “Bitfinex Alpha” report. 

Bitcoin reached an all-time high of $123,054, a 65% climb from its April low, before entering a sideways range between $116,000 and $120,000.

As the flagship crypto entered a phase of consolidation, its share of the total crypto market cap fell 6.9% after seven consecutive daily declines in the dominance index, the steepest decline since December 2023. 

Such dominance contractions without a concurrent BTC sell-off have historically marked the onset of altcoin-led phases.

Large-caps spearhead the catch-up rally

Ethereum (ETH) rallied 19.45% and XRP 21.4% over the week. Meanwhile, the market index excluding stablecoins and the top ten assets, referred to as the “Others” index, climbed 35%, equating to approximately $85 billion.

Solana (SOL) also outperformed, drawing liquidity from Bitcoin as traders sought greater upside. The breadth of the move signals broader participation beyond early-cycle BTC accumulation, a pattern typical in mid-cycle expansions when investors raise risk tolerance.

Despite losing relative share, Bitcoin still trades above the cost basis of 95% of coins in circulation.

Long-term holders have shifted to net distribution, transferring coins to shorter-term wallets, ETFs, and retail entrants.

The spot price now sits just below the short-term holder band near $120,000, a level that historically attracts profit-taking. The next statistical resistance lies near $136,000.

This structure leaves Bitcoin fundamentally firm yet more reactive to dips, while altcoins capture incremental flows.

Market outlook

Market mechanics suggest a baton pass rather than a reversal. Bitcoin’s consolidation above realized cost maintains a supportive floor, but relative momentum rests with altcoins as capital rotates. 

Whether the rotation endures will rely on continued spot demand for Bitcoin and sustained liquidity in large-cap tokens. 

For now, performance dispersion defines the landscape, with altcoins setting the pace while Bitcoin digests earlier gains.

Mentioned in this article

Ethereum’s derivatives market has erupted in the past seven days, and the trading desk at Singapore-based QCP Capital argues it is the clearest evidence yet that a long-anticipated altcoin season is finally under way. In a note to clients on Monday, the firm says total perpetual open interest (OI) in ether futures has vaulted from “under $18 billion to more than $28 billion in just a week,” a jump large enough to drag the composite “altcoin-season index” above the critical 50-point threshold for the first time since December.

Altcoin Season Ignites As Ethereum Outpaces BTC

While it’s no surprise that retail may be chasing the momentum, it’s becoming increasingly clear that institutions are leading the charge this cycle, driven by a shift in narratives and structural developments,” QCP writes, pointing to the unusually large sizing of recent block trades on CME and Binance.

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QCP singles out last Friday’s signing of the GENIUS Act as the pivotal spark behind the rotation. The law creates a comprehensive federal regime for dollar-backed stablecoins, forcing issuers to hold 100 percent short-term Treasury or cash reserves and submit to Bank Secrecy Act oversight. The White House cast the statute as “historic legislation that will pave the way for the United States to lead the global digital-currency revolution.”

With regulatory clarity finally in hand, corporate treasuries “are racing to build their stockpile,” QCP says, treating ether and other smart-contract platforms—Solana, XRP Ledger and Cardano among them—as the infrastructure layer that will benefit most from an explosion in stablecoin issuance. The desk compares the emerging strategy to the hard-money playbook adopted by publicly listed bitcoin bellwethers such as MicroStrategy and Japan’s Metaplanet.

The note argues that the policy tailwind is already reshaping capital flows. Spot ether ETFs attracted $602 million on July 17, out-pulling bitcoin ETFs’ $522 million and marking the first daily flow victory for ETH in the eighteen-month history of US crypto ETPs. BlackRock’s iShares Ethereum Trust recorded the single largest subscription and, according to QCP, is “broadcasting confidence” that its pending amendment to allow on-chain staking will secure SEC approval later this year. Industry analysts concur: the agency is widely expected to rule on the batch of staking amendments before year-end despite BlackRock’s late filing.

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Derivatives positioning mirrors the spot-market exuberance. QCP highlights “aggressive” demand for out-of-the-money call spreads such as the ETH-26 Sep 25 $3,400/3,800 and ETH-26 Dec 25 $3,500/4,500 structures, along with a persistent bid for call-side risk reversals across all listed tenors. Implied volatility skews now favour calls by their widest margin since the April 2024 meme-coin frenzy, signalling traders’ willingness to pay up for upside exposure through the fourth quarter—precisely the window in which ETF staking approval could drop.

The Ether surge has already carved four percentage points out of bitcoin’s market-share lead, driving BTC dominance down to 60 percent while lifting ETH’s share from 9.7 percent to 11.6 percent, QCP notes. If that trend holds—and the firm stresses that sustained follow-through in the options market is a key litmus test—“the next leg of altcoin season may already be in motion.”

For now, QCP is monitoring three metrics: perpetual OI growth, the altcoin-season index, and relative ETF flows. A decisive break of bitcoin above $121,000 could delay rotation, the desk concedes, but the structural forces unleashed by the GENIUS Act and the prospect of yield-bearing ether ETFs give institutions a tangible reason to diversify. As QCP puts it, “we’ll be watching these signals closely—and if anything else confirms the thesis, you’ll be the first to know.”

At press time, ETH traded at $3,846.

Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com