The US Treasury is exploring whether identity checks should be built directly into decentralized finance (DeFi) smart contracts, a move critics warn could rewrite the very foundations of permissionless finance.

Last week, the agency opened a consultation under the Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for US Stablecoins Act (GENIUS Act), which was signed into law in July. The Act directs the Treasury to evaluate new compliance tools to fight illicit finance in crypto markets.

One idea was embedding identity credentials directly into smart contracts. In practice, this would mean a DeFi protocol could automatically verify a user’s government ID, biometric credential, or digital wallet certificate before allowing a transaction to proceed.

Supporters argue that building Know Your Customer (KYC) and Anti-Money Laundering (AML) checks into blockchain infrastructure could streamline compliance and keep criminals out of DeFi.

Fraser Mitchell, Chief Product Officer at AML provider SmartSearch, told Cointelegraph that such tools could “unmask the anonymous transactions that make these networks so attractive to criminals.”

“Real-time monitoring for suspicious activity can make it easier for platforms to mitigate risk, detect and ultimately prevent money launderers from using their networks to wash the proceeds from some of the world’s worst crimes,” Mitchell said.

Related: GENIUS Act to spark wave of ‘killer apps’ and new payment services: Sygnum

DeFi ID checks: protect data or risk surveillance?

Mitchell acknowledged the privacy tradeoff but argued that solutions exist. “Only the necessary data required for monitoring or regulatory audits should be stored, with everything else deleted. Any data that is held should be encrypted at row level, reducing the risk of a major breach.”

However, critics say the proposal risks hollowing out the core of DeFi. Mamadou Kwidjim Toure, CEO of Ubuntu Tribe, compared the plan to “putting cameras in every living room.”

“On paper, it looks like a neat compliance shortcut. But you turn a neutral, permissionless infrastructure into one where access is gated by government-approved identity credentials. That fundamentally changes what DeFi is meant to be,” Toure told Cointelegraph.

He warned that if biometric or government IDs are tied to blockchain wallets, “every transaction risks becoming permanently traceable to a real-world person. You lose pseudonymity and, by extension, the ability to transact without surveillance.”

For Toure, the stakes go beyond compliance. “Financial freedom relies on the right to a private economic life. Embedding ID at the protocol level erodes that and creates dangerous precedents. Governments could censor transactions, blacklist wallets, or even automate tax collection directly through smart contracts.”

Related: GENIUS Act yield ban may push trillions into tokenized assets — ex-bank exec

Who gets left behind?

Another concern is exclusion. Billions of people globally still lack formal identification. If DeFi protocols require government-issued credentials, entire communities, migrants, refugees and the unbanked risk being locked out.

“It may restrict access for users who prefer anonymity or cannot meet ID requirements, limiting DeFi’s democratic nature,” Toure said.

Data security is also a flashpoint. Linking biometric databases to financial activity could make hacks more catastrophic, exposing both money and personal identity in a single breach.

Critics stress that the choice isn’t binary between crime havens and mass surveillance. Privacy-preserving tools like zero-knowledge proofs (ZKPs) and decentralized identity (DID) standards offer ways to verify eligibility without exposing full identity.

With ZKPs, users can prove they are not on a sanctions list or over 18 without revealing who they are. DID frameworks allow users to hold verifiable credentials and selectively disclose them. “Instead of static government IDs, users hold verifiable credentials they selectively disclose,” Toure said.

Magazine: Scottie Pippen says Michael Saylor warned him about Satoshi chatter

]]> https://earlybirdsinvest.com/us-treasurys-defi-id-plan-is-like-putting-cameras-in-every-living-room/feed/ 0 54863 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/bitcoin-bull-score-index-signals-fading-momentum-room-for-downside/ https://earlybirdsinvest.com/bitcoin-bull-score-index-signals-fading-momentum-room-for-downside/#respond Fri, 22 Aug 2025 16:57:48 +0000 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/bitcoin-bull-score-index-signals-fading-momentum-room-for-downside/

Bitcoin is trading at a pivotal level after losing momentum from the $120,000 zone and slipping into deeper volatility. The price is now testing the $112,000 support level, a key zone for bulls to defend in order to avoid further bearish pressure. While the broader trend remains constructive in the long term, the short-term outlook has tilted toward weakness, with momentum indicators showing a leaning toward the downside.

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Analysts highlight this moment as a potential inflection point for the market. A strong defense of current levels could reset sentiment and allow Bitcoin to consolidate before another breakout attempt. However, failure to hold above $112K may trigger a sharper correction, opening the path toward deeper support levels.

Adding to the cautious tone, CryptoQuant’s head of research, Julio Moreno, shared new data showing that the CryptoQuant Bull Score Index has shifted into a neutral signal. This shift highlights that while selling pressure hasn’t fully taken over, the market is no longer in clear bullish territory. The coming days will be decisive in determining Bitcoin’s short-term trajectory.

Bitcoin Indicator Signals Caution

According to CryptoQuant’s head of research, Julio Moreno, Bitcoin’s Bull Score Index has shifted from a “Bullish Cooldown” phase to a “Neutral” phase. The index, which tracks overall market strength using a combination of trading flows, investor behavior, and derivatives data, declined from 70 to 50. This move signals that bullish momentum has weakened, leaving Bitcoin in a more balanced state between buyers and sellers.

Moreno noted that “for risk management purposes, further softening in the index indicates price could go lower.” This means that while the neutral zone doesn’t yet imply a confirmed downtrend, any additional deterioration could increase the probability of deeper corrections. Traders are therefore closely watching upcoming sessions, as price action around the $112K–$115K support zone will be critical in shaping short-term direction.

The broader context remains constructive. Bitcoin has been in a steady uptrend since 2023, a cycle that has already delivered massive gains and propelled the asset to new all-time highs above $124K earlier this month. Many analysts argue that the market is now in the final phase of this bull run, where volatility typically rises and investor sentiment becomes divided between expectations of continuation and warnings of exhaustion.

As the month comes to an end, global macroeconomic factors—including interest rate policies, institutional inflows, and liquidity conditions—will play a decisive role. If Bitcoin holds its support and fundamentals remain strong, this neutral phase may simply represent a healthy pause before the next upward move. Conversely, if weakness persists, the market could be signaling the start of a deeper consolidation phase.

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Price Action: Testing critical Support Level

Bitcoin is currently trading around $112,837, after a sharp decline from its all-time high near $123,217. The daily chart shows that BTC has slipped below the 50-day SMA ($116,158) and is now testing the 100-day SMA ($111,224) as support. This level has become a crucial line of defense for bulls.

The rejection from the $123K region highlights strong resistance overhead, which has led to several failed breakout attempts. The structure suggests that BTC has entered a consolidation phase, with the $111K–$116K zone serving as the immediate range. A decisive breakdown below $111K could open the way toward the 200-day SMA ($100,597), a level many analysts see as the final support for this cycle’s uptrend.

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Momentum indicators also align with weakening bullish pressure, as recent candles show lower highs and lower lows. However, holding above the 100-day moving average would strengthen the bull case, potentially setting up a rebound toward $118K and eventually retesting $123K.

Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView

Bitcoin and Ethereum prices began to rally over the weekend, and interestingly, ETH was able to beat the $4,000 level for the first time in eight months. Bitcoin also recovered from its crash below $113,000 the previous week, taking the rest of the crypto market with it. Naturally, the reversal to bullish sentiment has brought investors out of the woodwork, with predictions now circling for where both Bitcoin and Ethereum prices are headed.

Bitcoin To $150,000 And Ethereum To $8,000

Ex-Wall Street trader Vivek Raman has shared a prediction that has reignited hope once again in crypto investors. This comes after a notable weekend rally and the possibility of Bitcoin and Ethereum reaching brand-new all-time highs soon. Despite this already impressive rally, Raman does not believe that the move is over, sharing a near-term prediction for both cryptocurrencies.

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In the post, the pundit uses the ETHBTC chart, which has been on fire lately, to predict where both digital assets are headed next. Raman was responding to another crypto analyst, Pentoshi, who believes the ETHBTC chart was headed to 0.055 after moving above 0.036.

Breaking this down, Raman explains that reaching this level would mean that the Ethereum price would be at $8,250 per coin, pushing it to a $1 trillion market cap. Amid this, he believes that the Bitcoin price could hit as high as $150,000 in the near term, making the likelihood of ETH touching $8,000 higher.

The push for Ethereum to hit $8,000 comes amid ETH treasury companies gaining ground recently. Raman suggests that investors could rotate from Bitcoin treasury companies into ETH, triggering a Wall Street run on Ethereum.

Looking at the longer timeframe, Raman forecasts that the Bitcoin price could hit as high as $250,000. At the same time, the Ethereum price is expected to hit $25,000, which would put the ETH market cap at a whopping $3 trillion market cap while Bitcoin moves in on a $10 trillion market cap.

BTC And ETH Getting Big Predictions

Raman is not the only crypto pundit who has shared major predictions for the Bitcoin and Ethereum prices recently. According to a report from Bitcoinist, another analyst Fapital has shared where they expect both Bitcoin and Ethereum to be by 2032.

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Fapital puts the Bitcoin price as high as $889,969, with Ethereum as high as $28,000 during this time. While both predictions span between shorter and longer timeframes, there is a similarity in the exception that the Ethereum price will eventually cross the $20,000 target.

Featured image from Dall.E, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin remains in a tight consolidation range after setting a new all-time high above $123,000 just 10 days ago. The current range, between $117,000 and $120,000, reflects a pause in momentum as the market digests recent gains and prepares for its next major move. While volatility has cooled, underlying metrics suggest that the broader trend may still have room to run.

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One key indicator drawing attention is the percentage of supply active in the past 180 days (% Supply Active). This metric has historically surged during major macro turning points. In spring 2024, as BTC approached $70,000, % Supply Active climbed to 20%. It rose again to 18% in December 2024, when Bitcoin first broke through the psychological $100,000 barrier. These spikes reflected long-dormant coins moving out of storage—often interpreted as early signals of broader distribution phases beginning.

Currently, the market is showing only initial signs of renewed supply activity, suggesting that we may still be in the early stages of this cycle’s distribution phase. As long-term holders remain relatively inactive and Bitcoin trades near record levels, the stage may be set for further upside if accumulation resumes and new capital enters the market.

Supply Activity Signals Early Stage Of Bitcoin Macro Expansion

Top analyst Axel Adler recently shared key insights pointing to a potential early phase in Bitcoin’s ongoing macro cycle. According to Adler, supply activity began rising in June 2025 as BTC crossed the $100,000 mark. Over the past 30 days, this metric has climbed from negative territory to +2.4%, signaling the beginning of a shift in holder behavior. While the increase confirms early signs of distribution, it remains modest compared to previous cycle peaks.

Historically, major bull markets see this 30-day % Supply Active rise dramatically. Adler highlights that the current pace lags behind prior peaks—like those seen when BTC reached $70,000 in spring 2024 or when it breached $100,000 in December 2024—suggesting that the market still has a considerable buffer before entering a heightened distribution phase. This delayed spike in activity implies that most long-term holders remain committed and are not yet ready to offload their coins.

As Bitcoin consolidates near the $120,000 level, this growing yet restrained activity indicates a healthy cycle structure. Adler predicts that if BTC continues to climb and hold above $120,000, the 30-day % Supply Active will likely move into the 8–10% range. Ultimately, it could revisit the 18–20% zone seen at past distribution tops.

Prologis and Union Pacific power the arteries of commerce. Prologis (NYSE: PLD) owns and leases the warehouses and distribution centers that keep e-commerce humming, while Union Pacific (NYSE: UNP) operates the rails that haul those goods across the U.S. heartland. Both benefit from long-term shifts like e-commerce growth, manufacturing revival, and infrastructure reinvestment. But for investors looking for a blend of income and long-term tailwinds, Prologis may offer the stronger case. Here’s why.

Image source: Getty Images.

Prologis: real estate on a roll

Prologis is a behemoth of a real estate investment trust (REIT). To give you an idea of its scale: The $2.7 trillion in goods that flow through its properties each year would make Prologis the eighth-largest economy in the world, and its warehouse footprint (1.3 billion square feet ) is enough to cover the equivalent of two Manhattans. By contrast, STAG Industrial – a notable peer – owns just 117.6 million square feet.

Many of Prologis’ warehouses sit in the right places: near major metro areas, close to highways, ports, dense population centers. These locations are ideal for same- and next-day delivery, which is why many blue-chip giants — like Amazon, Home Depot, and FedEx — have lease agreements with it.

A look at Prologis’ most recent earnings underscores the powerful moat the company is digging. In Q1 2025, it signed 58 million square feet of new leases (up from 48 million in Q1 2024) and broke ground on $650 million in new developments (up from $273 million last year). About 78% of these were build-to-suits, meaning the leases were pre-signed before construction even began. That’s well above the industry’s 25% build-to-suit average, according to JLL . This sharply lowers the risk of vacancy, which matters when a single large 500,000-square-foot warehouse can cost about $40 million to build.

New lease expansion is matched by growth in the actual cash generated from its core operations as measured through funds from operations (FFO), which rose 10.9% in Q1 . That bump came from strong tenant retention and rising rents. Those same dynamics pushed net operating income up 6.2 %, which shows that Prologis is extracting more value from every square foot it owns. These are strong results for any REIT — and even more impressive at this scale. As the chart below shows, Prologis’ operating revenue is several times higher than even its closest peers.

To underscore the opportunity, just follow the numbers. E-commerce currently makes up about 24% of U.S. retail sales (excluding autos and gas) and is set to climb past 30% by 2030 . Each percentage point increase will demand roughly 60 to 70 million square feet of new warehouse space — more than 18% of Prologis’ existing U.S. footprint.

That’s a lot of new space, but here’s where it gets interesting: Prologis already owns enough undeveloped land to underwrite $41.2 billion of future warehouse builds. When demand justifies new ground-up constructions, then, management can tap into this immense war chest. With that, Prologis has everything in place — the land, the leases, the balance sheet — to be the infrastructure backbone of online retail.

Union Pacific: the steady iron horse

Like Prologis, Union Pacific is a logistics giant. Instead of warehouses, however, its real estate is 32,693 miles of track, and instead of rent checks, it makes money hauling freight, like coal, grain, and cars. Both companies would profit from an e-commerce boom, yet when it comes to growth, Union Pacific doesn’t have nearly as much upside.

Part of the reason is the inherent constraints of Union Pacific’s railroad business. Unlike Prologis, which can buy land in untapped markets, Union Pacific spends most of its capital keeping existing tracks in shape instead of the costly slog of laying new rails. Rather than expanding its footprint, Union Pacific must drive growth through efficiency, like sharper pricing power and squeezing additional volume from its existing network.

Which, to be sure, is what Union Pacific is doing. Under CEO Jim Vena, who took the reins in August 2023, Union Pacific has tightened operations, broadened margins, and delivered goods with precision. In its latest quarter, a rebound in intermodal and bulk cargo — paired with solid pricing discipline and tight cost controls — helped Union Pacific keep its efficiency steady, boost carload revenue by 7%, and crank out $2.2 billion in cash.

Unlike Prologis, however, Union Pacific’s growth is tied to broad freight cycles and a network nearing capacity. This leaves it with fewer levers for major long-term upside despite operational excellence.

That said, Union Pacific does have an attractive price right now. Tariff news has mostly spooked investors, even as the company’s fundamentals remains solid. Granted, tariffs could dent Union Pacific’s revenue, yet the company’s no spring chicken. In its 163-year history, it has weathered two World Wars, a Great Depression, and every market storm in between. For value seekers, then, this sell-off could present a rare chance to grab a proven workhorse at a discount before the market realizes the engine is still humming strong.

So, which is the better buy?

Both companies sit at the heart of American’s logistics grid, yet Prologis holds the edge. Not only is it adding warehouse space today, but it owns the land to fuel e-commerce’s next big boom. It also throws off an attractive 3.8% dividend – eclipsing Union Pacific’s 2.4% — so you’re getting yield and upside in one package. For investors hunting both dividend and growth, then, Prologis fits the bill.

The Tron (TRX) Sharpe Ratio suggests the cryptocurrency’s price may be far from overheating, a sign that the coin could have more upside potential.

Tron Sharpe Ratio Is Still Significantly Below Overheating Zone

In a CryptoQuant Quicktake post, an analyst has talked about the latest trend in the Sharpe Ratio of Tron. The “Sharpe Ratio” refers to an indicator that compares the returns of an asset against the risk associated with it.

The numerator in the ratio, the ‘returns’ portion, is defined as the difference between the average return of the coin and the risk-free return (that is, the theoretical return involved with an asset carrying zero risk) over a given period. The denominator, the ‘risk’ part, is the asset’s standard deviation of returns over the same window (in other words, its volatility).

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When the value of this metric is greater than 1, it means the cryptocurrency is printing returns that outweigh its risk. On the other hand, it being under the threshold suggests the asset’s performance has been lackluster compared to its volatility.

Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the Tron Sharpe Ratio over the last few years:

As displayed in the above graph, the Tron Sharpe Ratio fell below the 1 level earlier, but its value has since returned above the mark. According to the quant, the metric being above the level has historically accompanied bullish price action.

An extremely high value, however, has proven to be an overheating signal, with the asset tending to arrive at a top. “Whenever the Adjusted Sharpe Ratio climbs above 40, it often signals a market that’s overheating,” explains the analyst. “In the past, readings over 40 have lined up well with local tops.”

So far since its return above 1, the Tron Sharpe Ratio has only managed to reach a high of 8.3, which is clearly significantly below this cutoff. This trend could mean that TRX hasn’t been too overheated.

“With TRX’s Sharpe Ratio still far from historical peaks, the data suggests there’s plenty of upside room for a potential bull run in 2025,” says the quant. It now remains to be seen how the coin will develop in the near future, given this pattern.

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In some other news, the Tron network set a new record in USDT transaction volume last month, as CryptoQuant community analyst Maartunn has pointed out in an X post.

In total, the month of May saw over $694 billion in USDT transaction volume on the Tron network. Around $411 billion of these transfers were of a size that’s generally associated with the whales.

TRX Price

At the time of writing, Tron is trading around $0.272, down 1% in the last week.

Featured image from iStock.com, CryptoQuant.com, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin’s price slipped to $105,235 today, dropping 1.5% over the past 24 hours and falling 4.2% in the last week. Some market watchers see this dip as a pause before a major move. According to their charts, Bitcoin could be gearing up for another steep gain.

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Historical Patterns Point To Rebound

Based on reports from the analyst known as “Mister Crypto,” rounded-bottom formations and ascending triangles have marked every big Bitcoin rally. In 2013, when Bitcoin was trading under $10, it spent months in a smooth, curved base before breaking out and climbing past $1,000.

A similar pattern showed up in 2017. After nearly three years of sideways action, the price finally exploded toward $20,000. The last cycle in 2021 also followed the same playbook, with almost four years of building a wide base before shooting up to nearly $70,000.

Bitcoin will go parabolic.

This time won’t be different! pic.twitter.com/0fEMMMclbD

— Mister Crypto (@misterrcrypto) May 29, 2025

Mister Crypto’s chart suggests that the period after 2021 has formed another base. If history plays out the same way, his forecast points to a breakout in 2025 that could send Bitcoin as high as $900,000—a 760% rise from today’s level.

Analyst Charts Re-Accumulation

According to charts shared by another analyst, Bitcoin often moves in stages. First, there’s an initial “leg up” that signals the shift from deep accumulation into a growing bull trend. Then, the price settles into a sideways “re-accumulation” phase before the final run.

From 2019 through 2021, Bitcoin followed this path closely. Analysts note that from late 2023 into mid-2025, Bitcoin looks to be in that same re-accumulation phase. If this unfolds as in past cycles, the next big upswing could push Bitcoin into the $270,000–$350,000 range before any parabolic spike comes into view.

Long-Term Holders Keep Adding Coins

On-chain data shows long-term holders (addresses that haven’t moved their coins in over 155 days) are still piling on. Between March 3 and May 25, 2025, these holders increased their overall supply by nearly 1.40 million BTC.

That pushed long-term holdings from 14,354,000 BTC to 15,739,400 BTC. In previous bull markets—like those in 2013, 2017, and 2021—long-term holders often sold during the rallies to lock in profit.

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Today, though, they seem content to hold. If large pockets of Bitcoin remain off exchanges, fewer coins are available for new buyers. That could tighten supply and make sharp moves more likely once demand picks up.

Looking Ahead In Uncertain Market

Bitcoin has lost momentum recently, but many analysts feel these dips won’t last. At $105K region, the price sits below last week’s levels.

Based on reports, some see that as healthy consolidation before a bigger run. Others warn that global interest rates, regulation, and macro factors could slow things down.

Featured image from Pexels, chart from TradingView

An executive at the banking titan Citi says that the S&P 500 (SPX) is not done rallying after most financial institutions were caught off guard by the sudden stock market recovery.

In a new interview on CNBC Television, Stuart Kaiser, Citi’s head of US equity trading strategy, says that after the weekend’s productive trade talks between China and the US sent stocks soaring, the uptrend will likely continue.

“I think there’s still room to the upside. I think if you’re someone who’s less positive and doesn’t want to be long this market but prefer to be short, those folks are going to step out of the way, and they’re going to let the systematic buying from risk parity, from VolTarget and from CTAs (commodity trading advisors) play itself out. There’s no reason to fight that. Those are emotionless buyers, and they’re not fundamentally driven. So you let that play out. And how much is that worth? It’s hard to know.”

To support his bullish stance on the SPX, Kaiser reveals that a lot of institutional players missed out on the meat of the recovery, and they may aggressively open fresh positions in the event of a market pullback.

“I would not try to step in front of this rally. I think you have to let it play out. I think it can run from here, because the bottom line is most institutional investors captured very little, if any, of the rally we’ve had to date. We were half joking, but you only had to own the market for 60 trading minutes to capture the entire 17% rally off the low.

The flip side of that means, though, if you didn’t own it for those 60, you didn’t capture much of it. It’s not a FOMO (fear of missing out). It’s a fear of ‘I missed out.’

And the question I think now is, do we get engagement, another level of engagement to the upside, or do people hope they get a little pullback and are kind of aggressive dip buyers? So, you know, I think there’s more upside, but it’s not a clean trade.”

As of Tuesday’s close, the SPX is trading for 5,886.

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Generated Image: Midjourney

Gold’s sprint to new highs and Bitcoin’s choppy start to the year might look different on the surface. However, both assets are reacting to the same macro script: eroding confidence in fiat money, volatile geopolitics, and deeply negative real yields. A closer read of market data shows that the “digital gold” narrative is firming, with the two stores of value moving in tandem more often and for the same reasons, even if Bitcoin’s price action lags.

Gold entered 2025 at nearly $2,600, adding roughly one‑third to its price and about $9 trillion to its global market cap. Bitcoin opened the year close to $92,000, slipped to an early‑April low near $83,000 on tariff‑driven risk aversion, and now trades around $88,700, roughly a 4% decline year to date.

While that gap is stark, correlation tells another story. The patterns we’ve seen in the 30-day, 90-day, and 365-day rolling correlation coefficients echo prior cycles: gold rallies first as a liquidity hedge, then Bitcoin catches up once capital starts hunting for higher‑beta expressions of the same thesis.

A combination of macroeconomic factors underpins gold’s explosive rally.

Ten‑year Treasury notes hover near 4.5 percent while core inflation sits just under 5%, locking real yields below zero. In this environment, an asset with no coupon suddenly offers relative appeal. Gold’s zero‑yield nature was once a drawback; with money losing value in real terms, that handicap evaporates. Bitcoin, which pays no income either, fits the same playbook.

The Fed’s balance sheet stands above $10 trillion, and large fiscal deficits continue on both sides of the Atlantic. Survey work from the University of Michigan shows long‑run inflation expectations at the highest level since 2013. Investors who fear and expect currency debasement look first to gold, and in turn Bitcoin, whose fixed 21 million‑coin supply echoes gold’s scarcity

War in Ukraine raised the specter of reserve confiscation, prompting central banks in China, India, and the Gulf to accelerate gold purchases. Those official flows totaled 1,136 tonnes in 2023 and another 388 tonnes in the first quarter this year. Bitcoin is not yet a formal reserve asset, but the logic resonates: an apolitical bearer instrument cannot be frozen.

Whenever sanctions or tariff headlines intensify, both assets tend to firm together, even if Bitcoin reacts with extra volatility. The Trump administration’s plans to implement a “crypto reserve” with ample Bitcoin holdings further support this.

Furthermore, swings in the world’s de facto reserve currency, the US dollar, force many investors to turn away from cash and bonds. A weaker dollar magnifies both gold and Bitcoin in dollar terms. The DXY index fell 5% from its February peak to early April as the market priced in fewer Fed hikes and fresh trade friction. Gold set daily records during that slide; Bitcoin rallied nine percent off its tariff‑panic low. Their sensitivity to the greenback is another point of convergence.

Flows into gold and spot Bitcoin ETFs further confirm this thesis. Investment flows prove that institutions group the assets within the same “sound‑money” bucket. Net inflows to gold‑backed ETFs hit $8.2 billion in the first three months, reversing two straight years of net selling.

Meanwhile, spot Bitcoin ETFs, still limited to foreign markets and futures‑based products in the US, drew about $540 million net. The dollar amount is smaller, but the directional alignment is clear: capital searching for inflation insurance is spreading across both metals, one physical and ancient, the other digital and emergent.

However, with these shared drivers, Bitcoin failed to match gold’s pace this year. This could be due to several factors. First, gold’s $13 trillion float dwarfs Bitcoin’s $1.7 trillion. Large allocators can deploy size into gold without shifting price; similar flows into Bitcoin move the tape sharply, prompting traders to stagger entries.

Second, the lack of federal regulation regarding Bitcoin could be keeping many US asset managers and investors on the sidelines, even as they buy gold. Passage of the broader crypto regulatory agenda, or its repeal, could unleash new demand in the second half of the year.

Finally, equity traders still treat Bitcoin as a high‑beta tech proxy during sell‑offs, so tax‑driven de‑risking at quarter‑end weighed harder on BTC than on bullion. Past cycles show that once macro drivers dominate, this equity beta fades.

Correlation alone does not guarantee equal returns, but it does show that investors increasingly perceive both assets through the same lens: limited supply in a world of unbridled issuance elsewhere. Every historical bout of money printing has featured a two‑stage response: gold first, then the harder‑charging alternative.

Silver played that second role in the 1970s, while Bitcoin fulfilled that role in the 2010s. The 2025 setup feels familiar. Negative real returns on cash invite continual demand for immutable stores of value. Central banks keep absorbing bullion; institutions nibble at Bitcoin products.

If gold’s new plateau above $3,000 becomes the market’s reference point, the monetary premium implied by a $9 trillion jump in its capitalization hints at what could flow into Bitcoin once more gatekeepers open.

The post Gold’s trillion‑dollar climb shows Bitcoin has room to catch up appeared first on CryptoSlate.