Dogecoin staged a sharp recovery following a dramatic weekend selloff, during which the token plummeted to a low of $0.143 before rebounding above $0.153.

The move came amid surging trading volume — over five times the daily average — confirming buyer interest at critical support levels and hinting at a potential momentum shift as broader markets remain turbulent.

News Background

• Global macroeconomic uncertainty continues to rattle digital assets. Geopolitical tensions and trade disputes between major economies have amplified volatility across risk markets.
• Meanwhile, inflation concerns and ongoing scrutiny of Federal Reserve monetary policy have contributed to cautious sentiment in crypto.
• DOGE’s latest bounce came during a period of intense selling pressure, but strong volume-backed support at $0.145 appears to have triggered a reversal.
• Despite being a high-beta asset, Dogecoin’s recovery from its local lows suggests resilient market structure — particularly given the broader weakness seen across altcoins.
• Technical analysts are closely watching whether DOGE can sustain its momentum above $0.153 and break through short-term resistance as bullish volume accelerates.

Price Action

DOGE posted a volatile 9.1% range over the 24-hour window, falling from $0.157 to $0.143 before rebounding to close near $0.153. Most dramatic selling occurred during hours 13–14, where volume spiked to over five times the average, establishing a firm floor at $0.145.

In the final hour of trading, Dogecoin surged from $0.152 to $0.153, with a notable breakout above $0.153432 occurring after 04:58. Volume surged again at 05:11 (10.7M), confirming buyer strength and pushing DOGE to a new local high.

Technical Analysis Recap

• DOGE dropped from $0.157 to $0.143 and rebounded to $0.153 — a 9.1% swing.
• Volume during 13–14 hour spike exceeded 5x daily average, confirming support at $0.145.
• Uptrend formed with clear higher lows from $0.145 to $0.152.
• Breakout above $0.153 resistance occurred after 04:58, pushing price to $0.153432.
• Volume surge at 05:11 (10.7M) confirmed breakout strength.
• Final hour showed sustained bullish momentum and strong consolidation above $0.152.
• Price action now targets the $0.155–$0.158 zone, with $0.145 holding as key support.

President Donald Trump promised to shake things up once he took office, and boy, did he. Trump imposed sweeping tariffs on goods from most countries in an attempt to transform decades of globalization that he believes has made global trade unfair for the U.S.

The extent of the tariffs in the initial April 2 announcement sent stocks plunging, and both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite indexes entered bear market territory that month. Stocks then rebounded quickly once Trump announced a 90-day pause on tariffs for most countries, so the administration could negotiate trade deals.

Even with the rebound and a nine-day winning streak as of May 2, the S&P 500 still turned in its worst performance in a president’s first 100 days in office since 1974, falling about 8%. It’s been a roller-coaster ride for investors in the first months of Trump’s second term, but what can they expect over the next 100 days?

Trade deals and China negotiations are key

The Trump administration is 24 days into its 90-day tariff pause, as of this writing. While the administration has hinted at trade talks with major trading partners like India and Japan, nothing is official. Additionally, tensions with China have escalated. Trump raised tariffs on many goods from the world’s second-largest economy to a cumulative 145%. Meanwhile, China hit right back, slapping U.S. imports with 125% cumulative tariffs in return, and the country’s leadership has showed no signs of backing down.

However, media outlets have recently reported that Chinese officials are evaluating the possibility of beginning trade talks with the U.S. after senior U.S. officials inquired “through relevant parties multiple times,” a spokesperson for China’s commerce secretary said in a statement. However, the statement also said the U.S. must remove all unilateral tariffs if they don’t want to “further compromise mutual trust.”

Reaching agreements with key trading partners including China is going to be absolutely paramount to keeping the stock market on solid footing. Many companies have warned about the consequences of what might happen if Trump ultimately reinstates his high tariff rates. The fallout could mean higher prices and layoffs, while many market strategists were predicting an imminent recession. All eyes will be on these trade negotiations, which will likely keep investors on their toes over the next 100 days as the markets continue to swing wildly based on news headlines.

Official White House Photo by Joyce N. Boghosian.

Investors are on recession and stagflation watch

Even with the 90-day pause in place, the chance of a recession this year has increased as economic data continues to go back and forth. First-quarter U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) shrank 0.3%, although many economists have suggested the data could be skewed by businesses rushing to get ahead of tariffs, which led to a surge in imports. Countering fears of a recession, the April jobs report surprised to the upside, and unemployment remained at 4.2%, suggesting the labor market could be on better footing than some believed.

Still, if U.S. GDP shrinks again, the economy would be in a technical recession. Economic data has also started to show some cracks on the consumer side. Tariffs add another layer of uncertainty to the macro outlook. The Federal Reserve is content to wait and see what happens because it is worried that tariffs could lead to a rise in consumer prices.

The Fed doesn’t want to see consumer prices rise while economic growth slows and unemployment rises. Such conditions would make it difficult for the Fed to achieve its dual mandate of full employment and price stability. This scenario could lead to stagflation, an even worse outcome as the Fed can’t simply cut interest rates to stimulate growth without the risk of reigniting inflation and hurting the labor market.

All of these different factors set the stage for more volatility. Despite the recent stock market winning streak, the U.S. economy has a tight needle to thread, and no one can say for sure how Trump’s tariff saga will end, if at all.

With this in mind, investors need to maintain a long-term outlook. Trying to rack up short-term wins in this environment is especially perilous. Historical data shows the longer you can keep your money invested, the better your chance of earning positive returns becomes. Stay calm amid the chaos and know that a patient approach should still win out in the end.

Super Micro Computer (SMCI 13.32%) shares have continued to be extremely volatile, with the stock surging ahead of its preliminary earnings report, only to dip nearly 10% the session before its report. The stock then bounced around following the announcement of its result. The stock is up nearly 40% year to date, but down about 50% over the past year, as of this writing, as the stock continues to make big moves in both directions.

Let’s take a look at the company’s most recent preliminary results and guidance to help determine what investors should do with the stock.

Lowered fiscal 2025 guidance, but big fiscal 2026 expectations

2024 was a topsy-turvy year for Supermicro, as the company faced the backlash of a short report accusing it of accounting manipulation, a delay of filing its financials, a Department of Justice (DOJ) investigation reported by the Wall Street Journal, and the resignation of its auditor.

On its earnings call, the company said it is confident it will file its 2024 annual 10-K report and first- and second-quarter 10-Q reports by the Feb. 25 deadline. It added that its special committee found no evidence to support the reasons why its former auditor, Ernst & Young, resigned. However, it did confirm that both the DOJ and SEC were investigating it, subpoenaing the company for certain documents in late 2024.

For its fiscal Q2, meanwhile, the company said revenue will come in between $5.6 billion to $5.7 billion, representing year-over-year growth of 54% at the midpoint. That is well below the $5.95 billion revenue consensus, as compiled by Bloomberg. Adjusted earnings per share, meanwhile, are expected to range from $0.58 to $0.60, reflecting only 5% year-over-year growth due to margin pressures.

One area Supermicro was seeing pressure with before the short report and filing day was gross margins, which had fallen to 11.2% in fiscal Q4 from 17% a year ago and 15.5% in Q3 2024. Gross margins play a big role in how much revenue is converted into profits, so the higher the percentage, the better. Supermicro had a low-margin business to begin with, as top semiconductor companies like Nvidia and Broadcom have gross margins of around 75%.

For fiscal Q2 2025, the company sees gross margins coming in between a range of 11.8% to 11.9%. Meanwhile, it projected fiscal Q3 gross margins of about 12%.

The company was pressed on the call by Bank of America analyst Ruplu Bhattacharya, who asked if industry margins were under secular pressure due to more competition from other AI server manufacturers and whether direct liquid cooling has become commoditized with everyone now offering a version of it. The company said it hasn’t changed its margin target, and that being first to market with the very best solutions is an advantage.

Looking ahead, Supermicro forecast fiscal Q3 revenue to come in between $5 billion to $6 billion, which was below analyst expectations for revenue of $6.09 billion, as compiled by LSEG. It is looking for adjusted EPS of between $0.46 to $0.62.

Meanwhile, the company reduced its fiscal 2025 revenue forecast to a range of $23.5 billion to $25 billion, down from prior guidance of $26 billion to $30 billion. The company said the lowered forecast was due to delays in new technology and the impact of its delayed 10-K. However, it thinks it can reach $40 billion in revenue in fiscal year 2026, representing 60% growth.

The company called its 2026 forecast “very conservative.” It sees the transition to Nvidia’s Blackwell graphic processing unit (GPU) platforms and the expansion of liquid-cooled data center solutions as growth drivers in fiscal 2026.

In addition, the company announced a $700 million private placement of new convertible senior notes due in 2028, which it said will support business growth. The new notes will pay interest of 2.25% and be convertible into common stock at an approximate 50% premium over the volume-weighted average price of its common stock on Feb. 12. It also amended its 0% coupon senior convertible notes, which will now pay 3.5% interest and be convertible at a 105% premium.

Image source: Getty Images.

What should investors do with the stock?

To quote Joe Pesci from the movie JFK, Supermicro is “a mystery wrapped in a riddle inside an enigma.” On the one hand, Supermicro is a real company that is benefiting from the AI infrastructure build-out, and that spending is only ramping up this year, so its guidance for $40 billion in revenue in fiscal 2026 is not farfetched. However, the company is clearly feeling some competitive pressure, as evidenced by its reduced fiscal 2025 guidance and very weak gross margins.

In the meantime, there still remain questions about its accounting and why its auditor suddenly resigned with unusually harsh statements. The company is also being investigated by both the DOJ and SEC over its accounting, and it faces a deadline in a couple of weeks to file or see its stock delisted, which it is confident it will meet. There is also the question of why it needed to raise new convertible debt.

The stock remains fairly inexpensive, trading at a forward price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) of under 15 times fiscal 2025 analyst estimates and at about 11 times fiscal 2026 estimates.

SMCI PE Ratio (Forward 1y) data by YCharts

That said, this is a very low-margin commoditized business that also typically doesn’t see big valuation multiples. However, if the AI infrastructure spending supercycle is going to continue, the stock is still pretty cheap. Nonetheless, with the issues still surrounding the company (from weak margins to accounting investigations), I think there are a number of safer ways to play the AI infrastructure build-out, such as Nvidia or Broadcom.

As such, I personally would just watch on the sidelines for now. But for aggressive investors, the company filing its financials by Feb. 25 could be a big catalyst for the stock. However, that’s more gambling than actual investing, in my view.