Rigetti Computing (RGTI -2.14%) has surged 1,820% over the past 12 months — topping D-Wave Quantum‘s (QBTS -1.82%) 1,550% gain and IonQ‘s 505% (IONQ -1.27%). Yet, today’s $5.3 billion market cap looks disconnected from a company posting just $1.8 million in quarterly revenue while losing nearly $40 million in the most recent quarter.

Investors are paying venture-style multiples for technology that still lacks commercial traction. Yet, the massive opportunity inherent in quantum computing could make this tech stock a steal — even at these elevated levels. Let’s dig deeper to find out whether this premium-laden growth stock is worth the price of admission.

Technical breakthroughs mask commercial struggles

In August 2025, Rigetti’s modular 36-qubit system — four 9-qubit chiplets linked together — achieved 99.5% median two-qubit gate fidelity, halving errors from its Ankaa-3 machine. A 100-plus qubit chiplet system is targeted by year-end. Think of it like building a supercomputer from many processors instead of one impossible monolith.

Rigetti’s superconducting qubits operate at fractions of a degree above absolute zero. The company’s two-qubit gates run in tens of nanoseconds, versus tens of microseconds for trapped-ion or neutral-atom systems — roughly 100 to 1,000 times faster. Faster gates allow more operations within limited coherence times, though rival platforms often deliver higher fidelities and longer lifetimes.

On the financial front, second-quarter 2025 revenue fell to $1.8 million from $3.1 million a year ago, reflecting contract timing. Income comes from cloud access, custom algorithm work, and government research and development (R&D). Operating losses of $19.9 million in the most recent quarter underscore the capital-intensive nature of this nascent field.

In short, technical progress is ramping while revenues remain minimal.

Government validation provides crucial backing

DARPA tapped Rigetti as a performer in its Quantum Benchmarking Initiative — a program seeking “utility-scale” quantum computers by 2033 — alongside IBM and IonQ. The Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency’s (DARPA) track record includes the internet, GPS, and stealth aircraft, making its backing a meaningful vote of confidence.

Meanwhile, Washington is advancing the National Quantum Initiative (NQI) Reauthorization Act (approximately $2.7 billion) and the Department of Energy Quantum Leadership Act (approximately $2.5 billion). Europe has pledged about 2 billion euros at the European Union (E.U.) level and another 9 billion euros from member states.

China’s widely cited $10 billion for quantum computing projects represents a one-time Hefei National Lab project, not recurring spend. The bottom line is that global governments are racing to fund credible players in this emerging space.

How does Rigetti fit into this government-backed innovation bonanza? Rigetti manufactures at its Fab-1 facility using semiconductor-style modular methods. By wiring smaller chips into larger systems, it sidesteps yield issues that plagued single-chip designs. IBM’s 1,121-qubit Condor processor (2023) underscored the limits of monolithic scaling and pushed IBM itself toward modular architectures.

Put simply, Rigetti was ahead of the curve in employing modular designs — a critical decision that could translate into a key competitive advantage.

Extreme valuation demands caution

Rigetti raised $350 million in Q2 via an at-the-market program, ending the quarter with $571.6 million in cash and no debt. That buys time through 2026, but the opportunistic raise at lofty prices signals management’s awareness that current valuations may not last.

At a $5.3 billion market cap on approximately $11 million-ish in trailing revenue, Rigetti stock trades at around 495 times sales. By comparison, traditional semiconductor giant Nvidia trades at approximately 40 times forward earnings — with profits, proven demand, and a rock-solid moat. While rich, Nvidia’s premium pales in comparison to those of Rigetti and other pure-play quantum stocks, all of which are cash-flow negative at the moment.

A speculative bet on computing’s future

Quantum computing could be the next revolution — or an expensive science experiment. Rigetti’s 36-qubit milestone and DARPA backing validate its chiplet strategy, and $571.6 million in cash provides breathing room.

Still, at 495 times trailing sales, the stock’s valuation prices in perfection. Thus, risk-tolerant investors might cap exposure at no more than 2% of a well-diversified portfolio. For most, though, it makes sense to wait for proof of real commercial traction before betting on Rigetti as a breakthrough play in quantum’s uncertain future.

George Budwell has positions in D-Wave Quantum, IonQ, Nvidia, and Rigetti Computing. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends International Business Machines and Nvidia. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Jeremy Bowman has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Microsoft. The Motley Fool recommends the following options: long January 2026 $395 calls on Microsoft and short January 2026 $405 calls on Microsoft. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.