“Dear Bitcoin Core, Bitcoin is and must remain censorship resistant.” That’s the promise, the battle, and the line in the sand drawn this week as Leonidas, the host of The Ordinal Show, weighs in on the raging Spam Wars, warning Bitcoin Core:

“Any serious attempt by Bitcoin Core to tighten policy rules or censor Ordinals and Runes transactions will be met with decisive action.”

Bitcoin Core: transaction censorship is a ‘dangerous precedent’

Leonidas argues that the Bitcoin network was designed to be neutral, permissionless, and open to anyone willing to pay competitive fees. To censor JPEGs, memecoins, or any on-chain experiment under the guise of ‘spam’ is to undermine what sets Bitcoin apart: resistance to censorship at the base layer. He warns:

“There is no meaningful difference between normalizing the censorship of JPEG or memecoin transactions and normalizing the censorship of certain monetary transactions by nation-states. Both would set very dangerous precedents.”

For anyone following the 2025 Spam Wars, the Core versus Knots debate is everywhere, and node operators have begun voting with their feet, flocking to Knots for its aggressive anti-spam features.

Knots’ share has ballooned from 69 nodes at the start of 2024 to over 4,200 in September 2025, now representing over 18% of the reachable network, a dramatic show of protest against Core’s upcoming v30 release.

At stake is more than OP_RETURN data limits here. It’s a battle over Bitcoin’s soul: Should the protocol remain a strictly monetary settlement layer, or can it evolve to support innovative on-chain uses, as long as transaction fees are paid?

The Ordinals and Runes perspective

The Ordinals and Runes ecosystem, according to Leonidas, has driven over half a billion in fees, supporting miners and security, while “using Bitcoin as money every day” outside of legacy narratives. They’re fed up pf being “gaslit” by Knots proponents.

Miners aren’t sitting out, either, he says. Many mining pools commanding over half of Bitcoin’s hash rate have privately expressed willingness to accept any consensus-valid transaction so long as security and implementation are sound. That’s not neutrality in name only; it’s how protocol resilience is achieved on the ground.

‘Standing with the Degens’: the Shinobi angle

Few comments captured the mood quite like Bitcoin Core’s Shinobi’s:

The Crypto Investor Blueprint: A 5-Day Course On Bagholding, Insider Front-Runs, and Missing Alpha

Nice Your first lesson is on the way.

Please add [email protected] to your email whitelist.

“As retarded as I think all the sh*t they do is, I stand with the Degens. I will not participate or standby while a bunch of moralizing puritanical clowns try to undermine the very thing Bitcoin exists to be: a censorship resistant system.”

It’s raw, it’s frustrated, and it echoes a broader sentiment among those who think differently from Knots: resistance to any transaction censorship is non-negotiable, whether the threat is JPEGs, memecoins, or nation-state monetary disputes.

Tensions continue to boil over on X and Nostr, with miners, node operators, and developers locked in heated debates about nearly every technical detail from OP_RETURN caps to what constitutes “spam.”

Knots’ meteoric node share growth has made fragmentation and chain splits more than theoretical. As Bitcoin Core developer Peter Tood commented:

“This has gotten so out of hand that the Knots crowd are becoming a serious risk to Bitcoin.”

If adoption continues, Knots could reach 23% of the network by October, rerpreseting a tipping point for consensus. The message from Leonidas and many other degens this week is clear:

“We will not sit idly by while transaction censorship is normalized on Bitcoin. We will defend the principles that have always set Bitcoin apart, such as open access, censorship resistance, and neutrality at the base layer”.

To the gatekeepers at Bitcoin Core: Bitcoin is and must remain censorship resistant. Anything less would betray the very thing the world’s first digital currency was built to oppose.

Trusted Editorial content, reviewed by leading industry experts and seasoned editors. Ad Disclosure

The general crypto sector is brewing with excitement and optimism, particularly around Bitcoin, the largest digital asset, which recently witnessed a significant upside move to a new all-time high. Reports reveal that Bitcoin supply on exchanges has remained muted during the notable surge.

A Muted Bitcoin Exchange Balance

Bitcoin investors and traders are demonstrating positive behavior in spite of its notable rally. Santiment, a market intelligence and on-chain data platform, reported the positive action of investors after investigating the number of BTC supply on crypto exchanges.

The on-chain platform stated that Bitcoin has surged to a market value of $113,923, marking yet another historic all-time high during the time of the post. Despite the fact that the bitcoin price has increased by +13.6% from its local bottom on June 22nd, Santiment highlighted that traders are not demonstrating a strong desire to return coins to exchanges for possible sale.

Investors are happy to keep their Bitcoin hidden away in cold storage or personal wallets rather than swarming to crypto exchanges to cash in on gains. According to the platform, this behavior is seen as a long-term trend among known exchange wallet addresses.

This action from exchange investors reiterates the story of strong holder belief. Thus far, this trend could be considered an encouraging signal to market watchers and traders, as selling pressure is still at bay.

Data from Santiment reveals that there has been a net decrease of 315,830 BTC on crypto exchanges over the past four months, representing an over 21% drop. It is important to note that the decline has been more pronounced, with a -61% drop when looking back five years, to July 2020, when 1.88 million BTC left exchanges.

In conclusion, Santiment noted that the overall trend is quite bullish. “Overall, the trend of coins staying off exchanges is a sign that the threat of sudden market plummets is more limited,” the platform stated. Furthermore, Santiment claims that long-term investors are becoming more satisfied with storing their coins safely in their storage.

Investors Are Aggressively Buying BTC

During this bullish period, Bitcoin’s Spot Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) has been trending downwards for several consecutive weeks. Popular on-chain analytics platform Glassnode revealed the persistent downtrend of the key metric, with the most recent buy-side increase occurring on Wednesday.

However, the platform claims that future CVD is more reactive, exhibiting an upward trend and strong buying interest. Since the all-time high tap, the chart shows that spot sold off while futures bought. Also, the funding is still modest, even momentarily negative.

The development implies that the BTC’s ongoing surge is being driven by leveraged rather than spot demand. Although spot markets are not providing much confirmation, Glassnode asserted that futures traders are leaning in. In the meantime, the low funding indicates that positioning isn’t congested yet, which Glassnode considers a structurally precarious setup unless spot interest returns.

Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

Editorial Process for bitcoinist is centered on delivering thoroughly researched, accurate, and unbiased content. We uphold strict sourcing standards, and each page undergoes diligent review by our team of top technology experts and seasoned editors. This process ensures the integrity, relevance, and value of our content for our readers.

Hester Peirce, head of the US Securities and Exchange Commission’s (SEC) Crypto Task Force, said that putting securities on a blockchain “does not have magical abilities to transform the nature of the underlying asset.” 

In a July 9 statement, Peirce emphasized that tokenized shares, notes, or entitlements “are still securities,” requiring issuers, intermediaries, and traders to adhere to existing federal law when creating, selling, or transferring them.

Legal obligations

Peirce’s bulletin notes that tokenization can occur in two ways: an issuer can mint blockchain versions of its own shares, or a custodian can wrap third-party securities and issue receipts.

She warned that the second model introduces counterparty risk because the token holder depends on the custodian’s solvency and control of the underlying shares. 

Peirce urged distributors to consult the SEC’s Division of Corporation Finance’s “staff statement” on disclosure duties and to meet with agency staff early if they seek bespoke exemptions.

She also flagged that the rules might classify specific token formats as “receipts for a security” or, if they lack beneficial ownership rights, as “security-based swaps” barred from off-exchange retail trading.

Peirce wrote:

“The same legal requirements apply to on- and off-chain versions of these instruments.” 

Growing on-chain stock activity

Peirce’s remarks arrive as tokenized equity volumes accelerate. Solana-based stock tokens issued under Backed Finance’s xStocks framework reached a combined market value of $48.53 million as of July 4.

Dashboard snapshots from data provider RWA.xyz show that the total surpassed the $50 million mark on July 6.

Furthermore, xStocks is now moving to other venues. BNB Chain announced that it will list Apple, Tesla, and other equity tokens as BEP-20 assets in partnership with Kraken and Backed, providing users with 24-hour access and DeFi composability.

Market participants largely welcomed the clarity. Backed Finance co-founder Adam Levi said in a statement that the company “designed xStocks to mirror traditional equity custody so regulatory treatment remains straightforward.” 

Kraken added that DeFi integrations on BNB Chain will let users post tokenized stocks as collateral without altering their securities status.

Separately, Bitget integrated xStocks into its on-chain platform on July 9, enabling customers to trade the same tokens from their spot accounts without the need for separate wallets.

Peirce closed by signaling openness to modernization, saying the Commission “stands ready to work with market participants to craft appropriate exemptions and modernize rules” where technology exposes gaps. 

Mentioned in this article

Trusted Editorial content, reviewed by leading industry experts and seasoned editors. Ad Disclosure

After weeks of trading above the $100,000 threshold, Bitcoin’s price has fallen below this psychological level with the heightened bearish state of the crypto market. However, the flagship asset has recovered to this level, and it is now trading slightly above $102,000. Within this waning price action is a positive trend and activity spotted among key BTC investors.

Classic BTC Whales Maintain a Neutral Stance

During the weekend, Bitcoin experienced a sharp decline as macroeconomic conditions remained bearish. On-chain data shows that BTC’s waning price action has not entirely influenced the conviction of many investors, especially whales.

Alphractal, a data analytics and investment platform, reported that the true and classic whale investors are still maintaining a neutral stance, neither bullish nor bearish. The platform revealed the development following its investigation of the Bitcoin Whale Transaction metric to gauge big investors’ transactions. 

According to the platform, the volume of on-chain BTC transactions over $100,000 stays at neutral to low levels. A look at the chart shows that this trend and position also occurred back in 2020, indicating a potential market reaction akin to that of the 2020 bull cycle.

Such steady behavior from whales points to a wait-and-see strategy by these investors, indicating neither terror nor euphoria. Despite short-term volatility, their neutrality might indicate greater market apprehension or faith in Bitcoin’s long-term course.

The on-chain platform highlighted that OG Whales usually shift enormous amounts of BTC during bull runs. However, this trend identified among these key investors in the bull market phase has not happened since 2022.

Bitcoin’s recent pullback has raised concerns about its near-term prospects as the flagship asset dropped to the Short-Term Holders Realized Price. Alphractal noted that Bitcoin had reached the STH realized price after declining below the $99,000 zone.

According to Alphractal, this is the point where it hits the average price of every BTC bought in the last 155 days. In the meantime, the expert has urged investors to be extra cautious since this could be the primary short-term support.

BTC To Rally In The Near Term

While BTC struggles to regain upside traction, Batman, a crypto expert, stated that the asset is still holding strong at support and showing good resilience. Since rising above the $100,000 mark, Bitcoin has maintained its position above this level for over 44 straight days, reflecting its resilience even during market whirlwinds. “That’s a good sign in the tough market we have seen lately,” he added.

Batman noted that if this support continues to hold, BTC may push toward the $120,000 level in the short term. This expected surge aligns with the last phase of the Wyckoff theory, which the expert believes will start sooner or later.

Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

Editorial Process for bitcoinist is centered on delivering thoroughly researched, accurate, and unbiased content. We uphold strict sourcing standards, and each page undergoes diligent review by our team of top technology experts and seasoned editors. This process ensures the integrity, relevance, and value of our content for our readers.

The former chief market strategist at JPMorgan, Marko Kolanovic, is offering his outlook on the US stock market in his first interview since leaving the trillion-dollar bank.

In a CNBC interview, Kolanovic says a correction could be incoming for the US stock market amid a loss of momentum by stocks such as the electric carmaker Tesla and the analytics software firm Palantir Technologies.

The analyst also warns that the equities are trading close to record high levels, but America is still staring at the same issues that triggered a stock market correction earlier this year.

“That [loss of momentum] could be a catalyst for a bit of a correction because close to all-time highs, but we still have all the problems. We have a trade war, we had a sort of signs of economic slowdown, valuations are back to highs. So that’s sort of what I’m kind of expecting – a little bit of a pullback here.”

Kolanovic believes that a potential pullback could ultimately reward patient investors, provided the likelihood of a US economic contraction does not significantly increase.

“There are some cheap aspects of US markets as well, and maybe wait for that garden variety sell-off that can be maybe 5%, 10%.

And if we still don’t have the recession probability shooting up, then it’s a buy opportunity. But I would keep an open mind that maybe at that point there is increased probability of recession and maybe even that 5% is not a buy at that [point].”

Follow us on X, Facebook and Telegram

Don’t Miss a Beat – Subscribe to get email alerts delivered directly to your inbox

Check Price Action

Surf The Daily Hodl Mix

&nbsp

Disclaimer: Opinions expressed at The Daily Hodl are not investment advice. Investors should do their due diligence before making any high-risk investments in Bitcoin, cryptocurrency or digital assets. Please be advised that your transfers and trades are at your own risk, and any losses you may incur are your responsibility. The Daily Hodl does not recommend the buying or selling of any cryptocurrencies or digital assets, nor is The Daily Hodl an investment advisor. Please note that The Daily Hodl participates in affiliate marketing.

Generated Image: Midjourney

April 7th Bitfinex alpha | Macros have arrived, but remain positive in the second quarter

After a relatively resilient performance last week, BTC is almost flat, dropping just 0.65% (better than traditional risk assets) by just 0.65%.

The market is currently selling, despite the BTC/S&P 500 ratio surges to a record high of 5%. We believe that stocks are in a very overloaded state, and that short-term relief gatherings could potentially squeeze this spread in the mid-term. However, the trends in short-term funding and open interest also suggest that BTC invasion collapses. Structurally, though, the foundation appears to be formed later in the second quarter for outperformance. As macro volatility cools, ETF influx resumes and the sovereign story reappears, Bitcoin is further detached from stocks and can regain leadership across global risk assets.

The US economy provided short-term optimism with stronger work and construction figures than expected in early 2025. However, the newly implemented tariffs weigh heavily on manufacturing, pricing and labor markets, bringing deeper structural challenges to emerge. Job growth in March, led by the private services sector, has shown signs of tension in the sector that maintains potential instability and manufacture and commodity-generating sectors.

At the same time, tariffs now average over 22% have increased input costs across the industry, fostering inflationary pressures and fostering retaliation from key trading partners. With mortgage rates eased construction spending increased in February, but costs inflation from materials such as steel, aluminum and wood have already tightened the affordable prices. Manufacturing activities are back to contraction, showing a tendency to soften labour market indicators, particularly job openings. The Federal Reserve continues to be cautious amidst uncertain inflation dynamics, but the big picture suggests that trade policy rather than monetary policy could be a greater risk to economic momentum for the coming quarter.

From a newsflow perspective, the industry continues to evolve proactively. Japan is leading regulatory modernization by classifying cryptocurrencies as financial instruments and suggesting that cryptocurrencies be reduced to 20%. Meanwhile, Grayscale has applied for Spot Solana ETFs, showing increased confidence in alternative layer 1 assets, potentially paving the way for wider ETF adoption beyond Bitcoin and Ethereum. Complementing these developments, BlackRock’s on-chain Buidl funds continue to dominate the tokenized financial market, paying $4.17 million in March dividends and gaining nearly 40% market share. These parallel marches highlight the convergence of traditional financial acceleration and blockchain technology, pointing to an increasingly accessible, compliant and investor-friendly mature market infrastructure.

]]> https://earlybirdsinvest.com/bitfinex-alpha-macros-have-arrived-but-remain-positive-in-the-second-quarter/feed/ 0 29628 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/bitcoin-whale-activity-stagnates-as-large-transactions-remain-at-low-levels/ https://earlybirdsinvest.com/bitcoin-whale-activity-stagnates-as-large-transactions-remain-at-low-levels/#respond Fri, 14 Mar 2025 18:14:23 +0000 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/bitcoin-whale-activity-stagnates-as-large-transactions-remain-at-low-levels/

Trusted Editorial content, reviewed by leading industry experts and seasoned editors. Ad Disclosure

For a long period, Bitcoin investors have been demonstrating a waning activity. With BTC’s price facing significant downward pressure due to the heightened volatility in the broader crypto market, this negative performance may extend, creating a bearish environment for the flagship asset in the upcoming weeks or months.

Whale Transactions In Bitcoin Stay On The Sidelines

A notable negative persistent action has been spotted among large Bitcoin investors or whales. Advanced on-chain data and investment platform Alphractal revealed the trend in whale activity in a recent post on the X (formerly Twitter) platform.

Alphractal reported that Bicoin’s whale activity has seen a noticeable slowdown. After examining the BTC Whale Transactions metric, data shows that the volume of large transactions is still at low levels, suggesting a period of reduced high-stake trading activity.

The slowdown implies that large holders are becoming more cautious in light of the market’s current state, which is resulting in less liquidity. While the ongoing inactivity suggests high uncertainty, it also indicates strategic accumulation by big investors.

It is worth noting that transfers valued at more than $100,000 are usually considered whale transactions. Whales’ overall transactions on the blockchain have been low and steady for the past 2 years, particularly since November 2022. However, the stagnation is far from what was seen from the end of 2020 to the end of 2022.

Considering the development, it appears that Bitcoin‘s current cycle has not yet reached the true euphoria that the asset witnessed in the past. In the meantime, examining the behavior of the large transactions is crucial to determine whether there is substantial demand for BTC.

Lately, demand for BTC among large investors has been gradually picking up pace in the last few weeks. Data shows a sustained bullish sentiment as whales have accumulated BTC for over a month, reflecting renewed confidence in the asset’s long-term potential.

Within a month, these investors purchased about 65,000 BTC in spite of the recent heightened volatility in the market. During significant waning market conditions, persistent accumulations by whales mean that investors are capitalizing on the ongoing drop in BTC’s price.

Such development is significant for Bitcoin’s market dynamics since whale accumulation has preceded upside price movements. Should the trend continue, it could lead to robust buying pressure that would lay the groundwork for BTC’s next price move.

BTC Holders Approaches Its All-time High

Another positive development during this volatile period is the rise in BTC’s overall holders. Santiment highlighted that Bitcoin’s total number of holders surpassed 54.71 million, which is within 0.018% of the all-time high of 54.72 million achieved on January 19, 2025.

BTC’s network expansion and the division of larger wallets into smaller ones are considered to be partly responsible for this. However, this does show that the network is still growing, even after over 8 weeks of intense price fluctuation following the all-time high of $109,000.

Featured image from Unsplash, chart from Tradingview.com

Editorial Process for bitcoinist is centered on delivering thoroughly researched, accurate, and unbiased content. We uphold strict sourcing standards, and each page undergoes diligent review by our team of top technology experts and seasoned editors. This process ensures the integrity, relevance, and value of our content for our readers.

The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) delayed various altcoin-based exchange-traded funds (ETFs) on March 11. According to Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart, the approval odds for these ETFs this year are still relatively high.

Decisions on Grayscale’s filings for Dogecoin (DOGE), XRP, Litecoin (LTC), and Cardano (ADA) ETFs were delayed. The SEC also delayed decisions for XRP ETFs filed by Canary Capital, Bitwise, and 21shares. 

The regulator also postponed decisions on the Solana (SOL) ETFs filed by 21shares, Canary, and VanEck. Canary’s Litecoin filing was the last altcoin-related ETF delay.

Other crypto ETF delays include in-kind creation and redemptions for BlackRock’s IBIT, as well as Fidelity’s FBTC and FETH. 21shares also saw a delay in the proposal to include staking in its Ethereum (ETH) ETF.

Despite the delays, the SEC acknowledged Grayscale’s filing for a Hedera (HBAR) ETF and Bitwise’s DOGE-related filing.

Additionally, on March 11, Franklin Templeton filed an S-1 Form for an XRP ETF, joining a new altcoin exchange-traded product race.

High chances of approval

Seyffart assessed that the multiple delays were expected, as “this is standard procedure.” He added that Paul Atkins has not been confirmed as the new SEC chair, which is also a factor in the delays.

The analyst also highlighted that the final deadlines for an SEC decision on all ETFs are due in October and that the odds of approval are still relatively high.

In February, Seyffart and Bloomberg senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas published their approval odds for Litecoin, Solana, XRP, and Dogecoin ETFs.

LTC leads the odds with a 90% probability of approval this year, with DOGE holding the second-largest percentage at 75%. SOL trails close behind with 70% chances, and XRP with a 65% chance of approval.

The analysts highlighted that these odds were less than 5% before President Donald Trump’s November election, making the new numbers relatively high.

Moreover, the odds for all ETFs listed by Balchunas and Seyffart could go up if regulatory conditions in the US improve even further.

Mentioned in this article