Ethereum price found support near the $3,680 zone. ETH is now rising and might soon aim for a move toward the $4,000 zone.

• Ethereum started a fresh increase above the $3,740 and $3,800 levels.
• The price is trading above $3,820 and the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average.
• There was a break above a bearish trend line with resistance at $3,810 on the hourly chart of ETH/USD (data feed via Kraken).
• The pair could start a fresh increase if it remains supported above the $3,800 zone in the near term.

Ethereum Price Eyes Fresh Gains

Ethereum price started a downside correction from the $3,940 level, like Bitcoin. ETH price declined below the $3,900 and $3,800 support levels.

The bears even pushed the price below the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $3,515 swing low to the $3,940 high. Finally, the price spiked below $3,700 and the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average. It tested the $3,680 support zone.

The bulls protected the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $3,515 swing low to the $3,940 high. The price is again rising above the $3,750 level. There was a break above a bearish trend line with resistance at $3,810 on the hourly chart of ETH/USD.

Ethereum price is now trading above $3,820 and the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average. On the upside, the price could face resistance near the $3,880 level. The next key resistance is near the $3,920 level. The first major resistance is near the $3,940 level. A clear move above the $3,940 resistance might send the price toward the $3,980 resistance.

An upside break above the $3,980 resistance might call for more gains in the coming sessions. In the stated case, Ether could rise toward the $4,050 resistance zone or even $4,120 in the near term.

Another Drop In ETH?

If Ethereum fails to clear the $3,880 resistance, it could start a downside correction. Initial support on the downside is near the $3,800 level. The first major support sits near the $3,720 zone.

A clear move below the $3,720 support might push the price toward the $3,680 support. Any more losses might send the price toward the $3,565 support level in the near term. The next key support sits at $3,500.

Technical Indicators

Hourly MACD – The MACD for ETH/USD is gaining momentum in the bullish zone.

Hourly RSI – The RSI for ETH/USD is now above the 50 zone.

Major Support Level – $3,800

Major Resistance Level – $3,880

Ethereum (ETH) reclaimed the $2,700 threshold one day after spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) listed in the US tracking the asset surpassed $4.5 billion in cumulative net inflows on July 8, according to Farside Investors’ data.

As of press time, Ethereum is priced at $2,723.98, up by 4.1% in the past 24 hours. ETH lost the $2,700 footing on June 12, spending almost a month below it.

Notably, the milestone of the ETFs came 25 US trading sessions after the products cleared $3 billion on May 30. 

Issuers attracted $303 million between July 1 and July 8. BlackRock’s ETHA led with $171,8 million in the period, followed by the $74.5 million in inflows from Fidelity’s FETH.

Shifting derivatives

Derivatives positioning shifted the next day. Coinank data show the Binance ETH/USDT perpetual long-to-short ratio slipped to 0.98 at 10:00 UTC on July 9, the first print below parity since April 16, 2023, when the same metric bottomed at 0.94. 

Rising open interest alongside a new net-short balance implies fresh money entering the market rather than positions closing. 

Classical futures theory holds that increasing open interest combined with decisive price action confirms trend strength, while a divergence often precedes reversals. 

Q3 catalysts

A recent report by CF Benchmarks cited four drivers that could tighten supply-demand dynamics in the coming quarter. 

The first is the expectation of $10 billion in incremental ETF inflows as second-wave platforms launch. At the same time, the second is the potential staking enablement inside US spot ETFs, projected to draw an additional $5 billion to $7 billion. 

The report identified a third catalyst as the corporate treasury’s adoption, which may increase the number of public ETH-holding firms from 5 to 50. Wrapping up the catalysts is the block space demand from tokenized assets that “should lift fee burn and bolster the L1 yield profile.” 

The report framed these flows as supportive after a first half marked by elevated but orderly leverage and record CME participation.

Price discovery enters tight window

With ETFs absorbing spot supply and Binance futures showing contrasting signs, traders face a confluence that tends to accelerate price discovery. 

Whether the next decisive move materializes through a long squeeze or a short cover will hinge on macro data and regulatory headlines. Still, the structural bid from regulated funds remains intact. 

The juxtaposition of persistent spot demand and a rare net-short bias in derivatives sets a measurable backdrop as the third quarter opens.

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