Today, the crypto market is stable, shy of just $4 trillion, rising just 0.2% daily in BNB, XRP and ADA readings.

Bitcoin has a 58% advantage so far, but is still under 60%, making it suitable for the Altcoin market. Bitcoin, Ethereum and Solana have risen slightly, indicating that the code could bounce right after the current long dip from last week.

(btc.d))

Discovery: Next 1000x Ciphers: 10+ Ciphers tokens that could hit 1000X in 2025

XRP major code-gatherer after violating ATH a few weeks ago

Bitcoin trades flat at the $115,000 level and holds some of the highest percentages of all-time highs (ATH). Among the ETF activity, Ethereum rose slightly to 0.2% to $4,300, while Solana hits $181.

XRP leads by over $3 with a 1.7% crypto increase. Ripple’s jump could be driven by the launch of Nasdaq’s Futures ETF and the approval of Brazil’s spot ETFs. This is based on Crypto’s legal victory, which XRP violated the ATH a few weeks ago.

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BNB will rise to $845 with XRP, at the same 1.7% as XRP, following the Maxwell Crypto upgrade, which reduces block time to 0.75 seconds. The upgrade also increased throughput by 49%, which helped with BSC capacity. But that’s not everything about Binance Coin. Nano Labs’ $500 million accumulation also suggests speculation from the BNB ETF, which attracts speculators to the coin.

Binance Coin

price

Market capitalization

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Meanwhile, the ADA rose 3,2% to $0.93, showing a 20% increase over seven days. Cardano pumps may be supported by a 50-day rebound from SMA. The ADA is currently focusing on a $0.94 resistance.

Ethereum and It Upgrades place the chain on a $5,000 target. This is a likely target this year. Well, that’s Ethereum.

However, Bitcoin has helped the crypto market reach this high $4 billion market capitalization due to its advantage and market stability.

XRP efficiency and its legality, BNB Crypto Exchange Integration and ADA growth demonstrate their strengths in the integrated market. Solana competes as an alternative to Ethereum, but focuses on these acquirers for targeted exposure.

Discover: Best Meme Coin ICO for Investing in 2025

For the latest market updates, please join us in the discrepancy in 99bitcoins news here

Bitcoin finances are buying Bitcoin dip: Will Bull Run resume soon?

by Akiyama Felix

The Bitcoin Dip Action for August 2025 highlights splits. Corporate finances stack SAT on every pullback, but US spot ETFs are seeing heavy spills and shaking retail confidence.

Despite the historic average of 11.4% in August, institutions remain committed, with strategies and companies like Platakis Holdings implementing a $1 billion strategy to increase reserves, placing BTC as an inflation hedge and a valuable reservoir.

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Please read the whole story here.

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The US economy is in “a new bull market,” according to Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley’s chief US equity strategist.

Wilson says in a new interview with Bloomberg TV that Morgan Stanley believes the economy had been in a three-year rolling recession that ended in April.

“Now we’re in a new bull market and capital markets activity is just another sign that that analysis or that conclusion is probably correct.”

The Morgan Stanley executive believes there could be volatility and drawdowns in the third quarter, but he also thinks that such corrections wouldn’t invalidate the bull market thesis.

“We’ve said that the third quarter, we think this is the best chance we could have for some correction or moderation, if you will. But I want to be very clear, it is still early in the new bull market, so you want to be buying these dips.”

Wilson also outlines what he believes needs to happen for the bull market to continue.

“I think to continue the bull market, you need two things. The ingredients you need [include] positive rate of change on growth. Okay, we have that from an earnings standpoint. And you have a policy that isn’t inhibiting that growth. So both fiscal and monetary policy look like they’re okay. And it appears as if the Fed, maybe they’re not going to cut [rates] in the short term, but all signs point to the next move will be a cut. So you have supportive policy, you have positive rate of change, you have good flow dynamics. I mean, those are all the ingredients you need.”  

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The president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis says the US is currently facing a heightened recession risk.

In a new interview with CNBC, Minneapolis Fed leader Neel Kashkari says he’s been having concerning discussions with small and big businesses across his region.

“The most common comment that I get is that they are uncertain about the outlook, so they’re nervous about making new investment decisions. Even businesses have said to me, if they knew where the tariff would ultimately settle, then they could adjust their supply chains around that new environment. 

That all else being equal, they may want to lower tariffs, but wherever they settle, they could adjust to that. But right now, there’s still so much uncertainty as the negotiations are continuing. A lot of businesses are on hold, and if businesses and consumers are on hold, that introduces downside risk for the economy, potentially even recession risk.”

Last week, Kashkari’s fellow Fed President Austan Goolsbee, who leads the Chicago bank, warned that President Donald Trump’s policy choices could lead to an unfavorable economic environment known as stagflation, which is dominated by stagnant economic growth, high inflation and high unemployment.

If the Fed is eventually faced with twin threats of persistent inflation and a weakening economy, Kashkari argues the central bank should prioritize the fight against inflation.

“For me, because inflation in the US and around most countries in the world, most advanced economies… has been elevated for four years, I’m very nervous that eventually inflation expectations might lose their anchor to that 2% target that we have. If inflation had been running at 2% or below for the last four years, I would be more comfortable, quote unquote, looking through this one-time tariff-induced inflation.

But because inflation has been running hot for four years, that makes me nervous, and that makes me want to err towards protecting and defending the inflation anchor of 2%.”

?

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A former BlackRock fund manager just issued a major warning on the US economy.

In a new interview on Market Disruptors, Edward Dowd forecasts an incoming recession and market meltdown driven in part by a housing crisis and a bursting AI bubble.

Dowd points to collapsing new home permits since 2022 and falling tenant rents as early signs of a housing crash.

He also warns that government spending cuts and a slowdown in illegal immigration will sap economic growth, with stock markets facing a potential 50% drop based on historical patterns.

“The idea here is you have a recession that we think manifests itself pretty soon, and the stock markets bottom sometime in the first quarter of 2026.

Then you have a recovery, that’s the ideal situation… We’re not claiming anything’s going to go systemic. We’re not doom and gloom. It’s just we think it’s an old-fashioned deep recession and hopefully it’s quick. Typically speaking in recessions like in the dot-com recession and the great financial crisis, stocks went down 50% before they recovered, so we’re nowhere near down 50% yet and we think that’s coming.”

The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped from its all-time high of 45,073 in December of 2024 to a low of 38,314 last month, registering a 15% decline.

Dowd traces the crisis to a global debt problem, temporarily masked by COVID-era money printing and spending, with commercial real estate and rising auto loan delinquencies signaling a broader credit crunch.

In the long run, he expects deflationary pressures to force the Federal Reserve to slash rates and print money.

For protection, Dowd advocates holding cash, pointing to Berkshire Hathaway’s massive position in T-bills/bonds, as well as physical gold, while cautioning against Bitcoin’s volatility and historic correlation with risk assets.

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Billionaire and hedge fund legend Steve Cohen reportedly believes that the US economy is not yet over the hump despite positive developments over the last few weeks.

At the Sohn Investment Conference in New York, the head of Point72 Asset Management says there’s a 45% chance that the US will enter a period of economic contraction, reports Bloomberg.

“We aren’t in a recession yet, but we have significant slowing growth.”

Cohen predicts that the US economy will grow by 1.5% in 2026, noting that the figure is “OK but not phenomenal.”

Data from Trading Economics shows that the US GDP has grown 3.2% on average from 1947 until 2025.

Turning to the S&P 500, Cohen notes that the stock market’s abrupt reversal after falling to a low of 4,835 points in April is “unusual,” comparing the move to the rallies witnessed after the March 2020 Covid-induced collapse.

For now, the billionaire says it is within the realm of possibility for the S&P 500 to retrace by as much as 15% or just move sideways in the coming months.

“Markets don’t have to go up every year. Markets can go sideways and that’s perfectly normal.” 

As for the Federal Reserve, Cohen thinks that Chair Jerome Powell will keep interest rates steady to cushion the economy against tariff-induced shocks.

“They are going to be worried about inflation from tariffs.”

Cohen is not the only one to sound the alarm about the possibility of the US entering an economic recession. Last week, JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon said that a US economic downturn is something he wouldn’t take off the table at this point, even after the White House signed a trade truce with China last week.

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Key points:

• Bitcoin traders wait for signals of US economic policy loosening as data forces the Federal Reserve into a corner.

• Recession is more likely than not, sources say, amid rising unemployment and resurgent inflation.

• Bitcoin and risk assets should ultimately gain from a recession shock.

Bitcoin (BTC) stands to gain as a US recession becomes the “base case scenario.”

Fresh analysis from sources including trading resource The Kobeissi Letter makes grim predictions for the US economy and Federal Reserve.

Fed’s “worst nightmare” gets real

US economic health is due to take a hit on the back of trade tariffs and the resurgent inflation, which may accompany them.

The latest macroeconomic data, which includes Q1 GDP and the Fed’s “preferred” inflation gauge, puts officials in a tight spot, Kobeissi says.

GDP came in markedly below expectations, turning negative against a forecast 0.3% gain.

“Effectively, the Fed must pick between containing either inflation or unemployment,” it summarized, calling the situation the Fed’s “worst nightmare.”

A key issue is the extent and timing of any interest rate cuts — something that crypto and risk-asset traders are keenly eyeing thanks to the positive knock-on effect for markets.

“Not reducing interest rates will further weaken US GDP and likely increase unemployment. However, if interest rates are cut immediately, we would expect to see another rebound in inflation,” Kobeissi continued.

Thus in a “lose-lose” situation, the Fed faces the threat of both stagflation — rising inflation with rising unemployment — and a full-on recession.

“A recession in the US has become our base case scenario,” Kobeissi added, linking to rising odds on prediction service Kalshi.

Bitcoin analyst sees recession silver lining

The latest data from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool underscores market expectations for Fed policy, which has remained conservative through 2025 despite the insistence of US President Donald Trump that rates head lower.

Related: Bitcoin ‘hot supply’ nears $40B as new investors flood in at $95K

The June meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is currently the event that should spark the next 0.25% cut, consensus suggests. The May meeting, however, now has just 3% odds of such an outcome.

Crypto market participants are meanwhile weighing the possible Fed course as conditions become increasingly hard to navigate.

“Yesterday the market was pricing 57% probability of 25bps cut for June 18th FOMC. Today it’s 63%,” popular trader Skew commented on the FedWatch data.

“Push coming to shove in terms of economic data & rate cuts. Fed will still be concerned about price pressures but more so about weakness within the economy, especially if policy isn’t corrected in time.”

Crypto trader, analyst and entrepreneur Michaël van de Poppe predicted that recession alone would cause the Fed to rethink its stance.

“The rumours for a potential recession is increasing, which should strengthen the thesis for the FED to loosen up the policy,” he wrote in part of an X reaction to Q1 GDP data. 

“That will likely be a low on the markets, liquidity to be added and risk-on to thrive.”

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

]]> https://earlybirdsinvest.com/bitcoin-eyes-gains-as-macro-data-makes-us-recession-2025-base-case/feed/ 0 33772 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/crypto-prediction-markets-reflect-rising-recession-odds-amid-us-economic-contraction/ https://earlybirdsinvest.com/crypto-prediction-markets-reflect-rising-recession-odds-amid-us-economic-contraction/#respond Wed, 30 Apr 2025 16:21:09 +0000 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/crypto-prediction-markets-reflect-rising-recession-odds-amid-us-economic-contraction/

Crypto prediction markets are signaling growing expectations of a U.S. recession this year after fresh economic data showed the economy contracted in the first quarter of 2025.

According to the latest figures released by the US Commerce Department, gross domestic product declined by 0.3% between January and March. This drop comes after a 2.4% expansion in the previous quarter, marking the first economic pullback since 2022.

Following the report, users on the decentralized betting platform Polymarket have pushed the odds of a 2025 recession to 66%, the highest recorded this year.

The event market has also seen strong engagement, with over $3.8 million in total volume traded as of press time.

Meanwhile, the sentiment is mirrored on Kalshi, a regulated event-trading exchange, where the odds of a recession this year rose to a high of 74% but slightly retracted to 71% as of press time.

Reacting to the economic downturn and the increased probability of a recession, US lawmaker Daniel Goldman strongly rebuked the Trump administration’s trade policies.

He argued that the tariffs have already driven up consumer costs, weakened confidence, and contributed to the decline in GDP.

Goldman said:

“Trump is the first president to knowingly crash the economy…As he barrels us into a recession, working people will suffer while his cronies get rich.”

I met a group of friends for brunch this past weekend, and somehow, the discussion shifted from our kids’ soccer tournaments and cellphone obsessions to the state of the economy.

Nobody knows what’s in store this year as tariff policies unfold and inflation does its thing. But the consensus among my group of friends is that things could easily take a turn for the worse.

Image source: Getty Images.

And I know we’re not alone in our thinking. Read any financial news site online, and you’ll probably see the word “recession” in at least one headline.

That’s an event everyone should be preparing for now. But should you keep funding your retirement savings if you’re worried about a recession? It depends.

You need to cover your near-term needs first

I’m someone who encourages people to save for retirement as much as possible and whenever possible. Not only will you likely need the money later in life, but you get a pretty sweet tax break for contributing to a 401(k) or IRA, so why not do it if it’s money you can afford to part with?

But if you’re worried about a recession — which people should be, frankly — then the most important thing to do is assess your emergency fund. And if it’s not where it needs to be, then it needs to take priority over your retirement savings, at least for a little while.

As a general rule, people are advised to keep three to six months of living expenses in emergency savings in the event of job loss, or to cover unplanned bills. I think it’s prudent to stick to the higher end of that range unless your job is extremely recession-proof.

I would also urge certain people to maintain an emergency fund beyond the six-month threshold. If you’re self-employed, that’s one reason to have more savings. If you lose your job, you won’t be entitled to severance or unemployment benefits.

I’d also suggest having extra emergency savings if your job is very unique, or if your industry has the potential to be highly impacted by a recession. If you’re a marketing director for a high-end fashion designer or department store, that’s the sort of job that could go away if a recession hits and consumers scale back on luxury purchases. It’s also not necessarily the easiest job to replace.

A short-term pause shouldn’t hurt you

I’ve been saving for retirement since my 20s, but there have been periods when I’ve had to cut back on 401(k) or IRA contributions to address more pressing needs. If your emergency fund isn’t strong enough to get you through a recession, this may be one of those times for you.

I would never suggest taking a five-year break from funding your nest egg (unless, of course, it can’t be helped). But taking a three- or four-month break from retirement plan contributions to boost your near-term cash reserves probably won’t hurt you in the long run. What it could do is set you up to avoid debt and other unwanted consequences in case the economy tanks this year and your job ends up on the chopping block.

U.S. stock markets have experienced a staggering $11 trillion wipeout since February 19, with losses accelerating on April 4 following heightened concerns over President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariff measures.

The single-day market loss amounted to $3.25 trillion—exceeding the total valuation of the global cryptocurrency market, which stood at $2.68 trillion at the time.

Among major tech players, dubbed the “Magnificent 7,” Tesla led the plunge, falling 10.42%. Nvidia and Apple also saw steep losses, dropping 7.36% and 7.29% respectively, according to TradingView data.

Nasdaq 100 Falls 6%, Slips Into Bear Market Amid Broad Sell-Off

The widespread sell-off sent the Nasdaq 100 tumbling 6% on the day, pushing the index officially into bear market territory.

The Kobeissi Letter, a financial insights platform, described April 4 as the worst day for U.S. equities since March 2020.

“U.S. stocks have now erased a massive $11 trillion since February 19,” Kobeissi said in an April 4 post on X, adding that the odds of a recession now exceed 60%.

The platform called Trump’s April 2 tariff policy announcement “historic” and warned that if such measures persist, a recession may become unavoidable.

The executive order signed by Trump imposes a 10% baseline tariff on all imported goods and introduces reciprocal tariffs aimed at leveling trade imbalances.

Trump said the move targets the disproportionate tariffs imposed on U.S. exports by other countries.

While traditional markets slump, Bitcoin has shown notable resilience. At the time of publication, BTC was trading around $83,749, down just 0.16% over the past week, according to CoinMarketCap.

Some traders have pointed to Bitcoin’s stability as a potential hedge against macroeconomic volatility.

“Bitcoin doesn’t appear to care one bit about tariff wars and markets tanking,” said technical analyst Urkel. Even longtime crypto skeptics are beginning to take notice.

“I’ve hated on Bitcoin in the past,” admitted stock market commentator Dividend Hero, “but seeing it hold steady while stocks collapse is very interesting to me.”

Trump Administration is Manipulating Stock Markets to Cut Rates: Anthony Pompliano

Last month, Bitcoin commentator Anthony Pompliano said that the Trump administration may be deliberately engineering market turmoil to pressure Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell into lowering interest rates.

He hypothesised that President Donald Trump and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent are attempting to crash asset prices, forcing the Fed’s hand to reduce rates.

Pompliano, the founder and CEO of Professional Capital Management and host of The Pomp Podcast, claims that lowering interest rates is crucial to avoid the need to refinance $7 trillion in upcoming U.S. debt obligations.

“Trump and his team are intentionally crashing the market,” he wrote. “Is this a master plan or are we watching uncontrolled destruction?”

The theory comes as Powell recently refused to cut rates despite Trump’s repeated calls for lower borrowing costs.

In January, the Fed held rates steady at 4.25% to 4.5%, maintaining its cautious stance amid inflation concerns.

The post U.S. Stocks Lose $11 Trillion Since February as Recession Fears Mount Over Trump Tariffs appeared first on Cryptonews.