Crypto Journalist

Anas Hassan

Crypto Journalist

Anas Hassan

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Anas is a crypto native journalist and SEO writer with over five years of writing experience covering blockchain, crypto, DeFi, and emerging tech.

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Last updated: 

August 22, 2025

ChatGPT’s Bitcoin analysis reveals a dramatic recovery to $116,859 following a sharp rally from $112,320 after Fed Chair Jerome Powell hinted at September rate cuts, despite facing $1.17 billion in ETF outflows and institutional selling pressure throughout the week.

At the same time, Bitcoin maintains a bullish structure above all major EMAs, including 20-day ($113,982), 50-day ($115,333), 100-day ($116,164), and 200-day ($115,943) support levels, positioning for a potential breakout toward $120K resistance despite momentum weakening signals.

Bitcoin shows a healthy RSI at 62.75 with MACD remaining bullish at 328.20 but a negative histogram at -903.78, indicating momentum exhaustion, while moderate 10.83K BTC volume suggests institutional participation during the Powell-driven recovery rally.

ChatGPT’s Bitcoin analysis synthesizes 25 real-time technical indicators to assess BTC’s trajectory amid Federal Reserve policy shifts and institutional distribution pressure while navigating altcoin outperformance and market rotation dynamics.

Technical Analysis: Powell Rally Tests EMA Support Structure

Bitcoin’s current price of $116,859.35 reflects a dramatic intraday recovery despite a -4.04% daily decline from the opening price of $112,320.01, establishing a volatile trading range between $116,988.00 (high) and $111,684.79 (low).

This 4.5% intraday range demonstrates extreme volatility following Powell’s dovish comments, triggering risk-on sentiment.

The RSI at 62.75 maintains healthy neutral-bullish positioning without oversold conditions, providing balanced momentum for potential continuation.

Moving averages reveal exceptional bullish positioning with Bitcoin trading above all major EMAs: 20-day at $113,982 (+2.5%), 50-day at $115,333 (+1.3%), 100-day at $116,164 (+0.6%), and 200-day at $115,943 (+0.8%).

MACD shows a strong bullish structure at 328.20, well above zero, with the signal line at -575.59, but a concerning negative histogram at -903.78 suggests significant momentum deterioration.

Volume analysis shows moderate activity at 10.83K BTC, indicating steady institutional participation during Fed-driven volatility.

ATR maintains extremely high readings at 113,152.27, suggesting massive volatility potential for continued significant moves in either direction based on policy developments.

Market Context: Fed Policy Shift Overrides Institutional Distribution

Bitcoin’s recovery follows Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole comments hinting at September rate cuts, creating risk-on sentiment that overshadowed week-long institutional selling pressure.

The dovish pivot represents a fundamental catalyst as “markets respond at the hint of a rate cut” with potential for amplified moves upon actual implementation.

The broader context reveals institutional distribution challenges with Bitcoin ETFs facing $1.17 billion in outflows while major holders, including BlackRock and other institutions, have been systematically reducing positions.

Despite this selling pressure, Powell’s rate cut signals create renewed institutional interest in risk assets.

Altcoin outperformance demonstrates market rotation dynamics with Ethereum recovering above $4,800 and BNB achieving new all-time highs.

The 2025 trajectory shows resilience from February’s $84,373 low to current $116K levels, representing 38% appreciation.

Current positioning maintains proximity to July-August highs despite institutional selling.

Market Fundamentals: Strong Metrics Despite Distribution Pressure

Bitcoin maintains dominant positioning with $2.32 trillion market cap (+3.31%) despite institutional distribution challenges.

The market cap growth accompanies increased volume at $80.01 billion (+34.12%), indicating active institutional repositioning.

The 3.46% volume-to-market cap ratio suggests heightened trading activity supporting price stability during policy-driven volatility.

Circulating supply of 19.9 million BTC represents 94.8% of the maximum 21 million supply, with approaching scarcity supporting long-term value despite short-term distribution phases.

Market dominance of 61.40% shows slight weakness relative to altcoins during institutional rotation phases, while the -6.39% distance from August 14’s all-time high of $124,457 demonstrates proximity to recent peaks despite selling pressure.

Current pricing maintains extraordinary 239,486,002% gains from 2010 lows while trading near historic highs, validating Bitcoin’s institutional adoption trajectory despite temporary distribution pressures from ETF outflows and institutional profit-taking activities.

Social Sentiment: Exceptional Performance Amid Policy Catalyst

LunarCrush data reveals outstanding social performance with Bitcoin’s AltRank at #1 during Federal Reserve policy developments.

Galaxy Score of 90 reflects strong sentiment as participants process rate cut implications for risk asset positioning.

Engagement metrics show substantial activity with 5 million total engagements (-500K) while mentions surge to 500K (+100K), demonstrating heightened attention during policy catalyst events.

Social dominance of 43.06% maintains exceptional visibility while sentiment registers at a robust 80% positive despite institutional distribution.

Recent social themes focus on Powell’s dovish pivot, with community discussions emphasizing “false breakdown confirmed” and “inverse head and shoulders” technical patterns.

Notable analyst commentary includes predictions of $175K targets and comparisons to historical rate cut cycles, driving Bitcoin appreciation.

Prominent traders are also identifying double-bottom formations and potential for moves above $127K before Q3 ends.

ChatGPT’s Bitcoin Analysis: Fed Policy Catalyst Meets Technical Resistance

ChatGPT’s Bitcoin analysis reveals Bitcoin benefiting from Federal Reserve policy shift despite institutional distribution headwinds.

The recovery above all EMAs following Powell’s comments demonstrates monetary policy’s continued influence on Bitcoin positioning as a risk asset.

Immediate support emerges at the 20-day EMA around $113,982, followed by strong support confluence at 50-day ($115,333) and 100-day ($116,164) EMAs.

The layered EMA support structure provides substantial downside protection during policy-driven volatility phases.

Resistance begins at today’s high around $116,988, followed by psychological $120K–$122K levels.

Volume patterns and MACD signals suggest institutional positioning continues despite surface distribution, while extreme ATR readings indicate potential for significant moves matching Federal Reserve policy implementation phases and institutional rotation dynamics.

Three-Month Bitcoin Price Forecast: Policy-Driven Scenarios

Rate Cut Rally (50% Probability)

Successful September rate cut implementation combined with continued dovish Fed policy could drive Bitcoin toward $125K–$130K, representing 7–11% upside from current levels.

This scenario requires sustained institutional confidence and policy follow-through validation.

Distribution Consolidation (30% Probability)

Continued institutional profit-taking could result in consolidation between $112K–$120K, allowing distribution completion while monetary policy provides underlying support for risk asset positioning.

Technical Correction (20% Probability)

A break below $113K EMA support could trigger selling toward $108K–$110K levels, representing 7–10% downside.

Recovery would depend on the Federal Reserve policy acceleration and institutional distribution completion.

ChatGPT’s Bitcoin Analysis: Monetary Policy Catalyst Meets Distribution Phase

ChatGPT’s Bitcoin analysis reveals that Bitcoin is positioned for a potential policy-driven breakout despite institutional distribution pressures.

The combination of Fed dovish pivot with technical support above all EMAs suggests that monetary policy influence outweighs short-term selling pressure.

Next Price Target: $125K-$130K Within 90 Days

The immediate trajectory requires holding above $113K EMA support to validate policy catalyst strength over distribution pressure.

From there, the September rate cut implementation could propel Bitcoin toward $125K psychological resistance, with sustained dovish policy driving toward $130K+ breakout levels.

However, failure to hold $113K would signal extended consolidation toward $108K–$110K range, creating an accumulation opportunity before the next policy wave drives Bitcoin toward new all-time highs above $125K as monetary conditions become increasingly supportive.

Bitcoin prices are recovering from the $112,000 support zone. BTC is rising and may try to clear the $115,500 resistance zone to gain bullish momentum.

• Bitcoin has begun a decent upward move from the $112,000 zone.
• The price is trading above $114,000, and is a simple moving average of 100 hours.
• The hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken) has $114,600 in support, creating a bullish trendline.
• The pair could begin another increase once they clear the $115,500 resistance zone.

Bitcoin price eye rise break

Bitcoin prices have begun downward movement from the $118,000 zone. BTC went below support levels of $115,000 and $113,500 to enter the short-term bearish zone.

We tested the $112,000 zone priced. The base has been formed and prices are now about to recover. There was a move above the $113,500 and $114,200 levels. Prices surpassed the 23.6% FIB retracement level of the downward movement from a high of $118,918 to a low of $112,000.

Bitcoin is currently trading over $114,200 and trades a simple moving average every 100 hours. Additionally, the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair has $114,600 in support, creating a bullish trendline.

Immediate resistance is close to the $115,500 level. This is close to the 50% FIB retracement level of downward movement, from a Swing High of $118,918 to a low of $112,000. The first important resistance is close to the $116,250 level. The next resistance could be $116,800. Over $116,800 resistance could lead to even higher prices. If stated, the price may test a resistance level of $118,500. Any further profit could potentially send the price towards the $120,500 level. The main goal is $121,200.

Another reduction in BTC?

If Bitcoin does not rise above the $115,500 resistance zone, it could begin another decline. Immediate support is close to the $114,600 level. The first major support is close to the $113,500 level.

The following support is located near the $112,000 zone: Any further losses could send the price to $110,500 in the short term. The main support is $108,500 and BTC could continue to decline.

Technical indicators:

HOURLY MACD – MACD is currently increasing its pace in the bullish zone.

Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – BTC/USD’s RSI is above 50 levels.

Key support levels – $114,600, followed by $113,500.

Major resistance levels – $115,500 and $116,800.

Tyler Winklevos says Jpmorgan has paused Gemini After publicly criticizing the bank, they attempt to restore access to the bank. According to him, the decision came shortly after he posted the tweet. Call out Major Banks fight Open banking reform. He believes in timing It wasn’t By chance.

My tweets from last week have been a nervous one. This week, JPMorgan said it was pausing their playboards for that reason. @gemini Operations as a customer after turning off us during 2.0. They want us to remain silent while we quietly try to steal you… https://t.co/c9ls7qpamt

– Tyler Winclevos (@tyler) July 25th, 2025

Tweets that changed everything

On July 19, Winklevoss accused the banking industry of trying to block consumer financial protections Bureau Open banking rules. He claimed that the banks were trying to stop consumers from sharing them. My own Data via platforms such as Plaid. Immediately after he aired his opinion, Gemini Re-editing with JPMorgan reportedly has stagnated. Winklevoss saw it as a punishment for speaking up.

what At risk for users and fintech

The open banking rules in question fall under Section 1033 of the Consumer Financial Protection Act. They aim to control their financial data to consumers; Allow They share it with apps and services They choose. Winklevoss claims that the banks are try out In turn around This will be the payment model of by addition Fees, it would It hurts Smaller Fintech and Cryptographic Platforms Depend Above Smooth Transfer from Fiat to Crypto.

Is this about money and power?

Winklevoss I didn’t do it Keep it down. He framed bank Resistance as a way to protect the role of gatekeepers in the financial system. In his view, the Less about cost coverage and more about controlling data. He warned that banks were pushing back not only through lobbying but through legal measures aimed at delaying or undermining rules completely.

24 hours7d30D1Yeverytime

Discover: 9+ Best High Risk, High Reward Crypto Buy in July 2025

Others in the industry will back him up

He is It’s not the only one that’s making the alarm sound. Arjun Seti, Kraken’s The CO-CEO weighed himself with him. My own Criticism. He said the banks handle access to user data like products. It’s on saleyou can lock people in a walled garden. Nic Carter also rang, tying the whole situation. what It is often referred to as Operation Choke Point 2.0. Clear explanation.

Gemini Bank History and Workarounds

Gemini had a connection with JP Morgan before regulators began pushing banks to distance themselves from crypto companies in 2023 and early 2024. Since then, the company has been seeking alternative bank partners. this I wouldn’t do that This is the first time Winclevos twins have had to pivot. They are We dealt with issues that have previously been removed, expanded internationally and addressed by building a variety of payment rails.

Discovery: Next 1000x Ciphers: 10+ Ciphers tokens that could hit 1000X in 2025

jpmorgan’s Silence says a lot

bank it’s not I’ve commented publicly Winklevoss’s Claim. In the past, JPMorgan has defended billing fees for access to data infrastructure, and CEO Jamie Dimon it’s not He was truly shy about his distrust of code. Whether the debate suspends are personal, political or procedural, JP Morgan is quiet for now.

this teeth Part of the broader battle for who Get it To control financial data. If rates become standard, it can be difficult for new players to compete and make it difficult for users to freely connect to the services they wish to make in a bank account. The outcome of this conflict could shape the future of open banking in the United States for years to come.

Discover: 20+ Next Cryptocurrency to Explode in 2025

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January 20th Bitfinex alpha | The market will rebound, but beware of “sell” transactions

Bitcoin made an astounding recovery last week, immersing its lowest price of $89,698, above $100,000. The recovery reached a high of $105,800. This 18.2% peak-to-trough bounce highlights relative strength compared to Bitcoin stocks, with BTC increasing the week by 10%.

BTC/USD 4H chart showing the highest ever last week

The DIP, below $90,000, caused a major liquidation, marking $818 million on January 13th, including a long position of $592 million. Short-term holders (STHs), with an average cost base of $88,400, played a key role in protecting prices during this revision. Historically, the STH cost base has served as a reliable level of support, and last week’s trough closely aligned with this level, causing a rebound. However, if you fall below the STH cost base, it can cause stress and further promote sellouts.

This recovery was driven primarily by aggressive spot purchases, as seen in the sharp rise in the Spot Cumulative Volume Delta. This metric showed significant candidate purchasing pressure, particularly from US-based exchanges. Purchasing patterns reflect previous activities related to micro-strategic and ETF purchases, further strengthening the view that they remain in institutional demand.

However, the spot buying pressure seen last week can take some time for bids to be replenished, and could lead to short pullbacks before the upward momentum resumes. Bitcoin’s resilience and sustained demand are well positioned for its continued strength over the medium term.

Inflation showed a slight increase in December, with CPI rising 2.9% on an annual basis, driven primarily by a surge in energy prices. Core inflation exceeds the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, but stabilizing import prices and growth in the lower than expected producer price index provide optimism to ease inflationary pressures. Consumer spending was strong, with retail sales rising by 3.9% year-on-year in December, strengthened by wage growth and a strong labor market. But uncertainty looms as Trump’s proposed tariffs increase the costs of key commodities, disproportionately affecting low-income households and disrupt recent advances in inflation control. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve appears cautious, informing them of smaller rate cuts in 2025 to balance inflation concerns with economic growth. Despite these headwinds, the resilience of consumer activity and employment strength provides a solid foundation despite the risks from tariff policies, labor supply constraints, and seasonal spending fluctuations can pose important challenges.

Last week in Crypto News, Trump launched Memecoin$Trump on the Solana blockchain, stirring both enthusiasm and skepticism, which quickly reached a $15 billion valuation, and managed to earn some important benefits. It is sold as a symbol of support for Trump’s ideals rather than investment, but concerns about centralization and transparency have potential impacts on regulatory scrutiny and political funding. In the meantime, institutions continue to look for ways to make crypto-related assets available to traditional financial investors, with filings submitted to Spot Litecoin ETF proposed by Onchain Economy ETF, focusing on digital asset infrastructure. These filings reflect the wider push for mainstream crypto adoption following the success of Bitcoin and Ethereum Spot ETFs. Onchain Economy ETF aims to provide exposure to the companies that shape the blockchain economy, offering investors a diverse entry point amid growing interest in the sector.

]]> https://earlybirdsinvest.com/bitfinex-alpha-the-market-will-rebound-but-beware-of-sell-transactions/feed/ 0 45445 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/crypto-products-defy-geopolitical-tensions-in-sudden-1900000000-inflow-rebound-coinshares/ https://earlybirdsinvest.com/crypto-products-defy-geopolitical-tensions-in-sudden-1900000000-inflow-rebound-coinshares/#respond Tue, 17 Jun 2025 00:38:43 +0000 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/crypto-products-defy-geopolitical-tensions-in-sudden-1900000000-inflow-rebound-coinshares/

Institutional digital asset investment vehicles have enjoyed over $13 billion in inflows over the last nine weeks, according to leading global investment firm CoinShares.

In its latest Digital Asset Fund Flows Weekly Report, CoinShares finds that last week’s institutional digital asset inflows have risen compared to the numbers in previous weeks despite rising geopolitical uncertainty.

“Despite geopolitical concerns weighing on risk assets last week, digital assets remained resilient, attracting inflows alongside gold.

Digital asset investment products recorded US$1.9bn in inflows, marking the ninth consecutive week of inflows. This brings the total inflows during this run to US$12.9bn, while year-to-date (YTD) inflows have reached a new record of US$13.2bn.”

Regionally, the US led internationally with $1.9 billion in inflows. Germany, Switzerland and Canada followed with $39.2 million, $20.7 million and $12.1 million in inflows, respectively.

“In contrast, Hong Kong and Brazil experienced outflows of US$56.8m and US$8.5m, respectively.”

Following two consecutive weeks of outflows, flagship crypto Bitcoin (BTC) is back on top with $1.3 billion in inflows.

Leading smart contract platform Ethereum (ETH) has been on an eight-week inflow streak, totalling to $2 billion, adding $583 million in inflows last week.

“Following a 3-week run of outflows, XRP saw US$11.8m in inflows, while Sui saw a further US$3.5m inflows.”

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With a notable bounce, Bitcoin has regained its upside traction once again, surging beyond key resistance levels as it aims to revisit its peak. While several key factors could be responsible for the recent upward move in BTC’s price, one factor seems to stand out the most among all.

What’s Behind The Bitcoin Renewed Upswing

Bitcoin has witnessed downside pressure since reaching a new all-time high in May this year. However, BTC’s price has recently made an electric comeback, rising above the crucial $105,000 level in a stunning display of power on Monday.

Following the renewed upward performance by BTC, Glassnode, a leading financial and on-chain analytics platform, has underscored the major trigger behind the sharp rally. According to the on-chain platform, the sudden upswing is likely driven by a wave of short positions liquidations. 

Following weeks of ambiguity and price fluctuations that shook investor confidence, the flagship cryptocurrency has rekindled optimism among investors about further gains. As traders who bet against BTC’s upside potential were forced to cover their positions, a surge of buy orders swept over the market, which appears to have caused prices to spike higher. 

This abrupt action from Bitcoin not only highlights how erratic the asset may be but also suggests that the market mood may change as bulls or buyers gain ground. Furthermore, it marks a turning point in BTC’s path, increasing the potential for the flagship asset to reclaim its all-time high and even beyond.

Data from the on-chain platform shows that the total short liquidations of the 24-hour Simple Moving Average (24H SMA) increased from $105,000 to $359,000 in just 4 hours. Prior to the upward move, Bitcoin’s funding rates turned negative, which pointed to a rise in short appetite. However, as of Monday, those short bets from investors were observed being squeezed.

A Solid Cluster Of Liquidity Ahead For BTC

In an X (formerly Twitter) post, Daan Crypto Trades, a technical expert and trader, has shed more light on Bitcoin’s recent liquidation heat map, particularly on the largest cryptocurrency exchange, Binance.  

After examining the liquidation heat map on the monthly time frame, the expert highlighted that the chart’s narrative is consistent with other charts that show significant liquidity clusters aligning well with critical levels. Nonetheless, the expert believes that below the $100,000 mark and Thursday’s low are areas where things can pick up speed, and the current correction could occur.

Meanwhile, above the $112,000 level and into new all-time highs is where Bitcoin’s price would find a strong cluster of liquidity from shorts that had amassed during this time. Also, Daan Crypto Trades noted that a lot of stops are likely to be placed above the point.

Featured image from Getty Images, chart from Tradingview.com

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On Thursday, Bitcoin (BTC) prices dipped to below $101,000 as fallout between US President Donald Trump and world’s wealthiest man Elon Musk rocked the US financial markets. However, in the past 48 hours, the maiden cryptocurrency has registered a rebound climbing to above $105,000 before slipping into a sideways movement. Amidst these developments, a popular crypto analyst with X pseudonym KillaXBT has outlined multiple scenarios for Bitcoin’s next price action.

Behind Bitcoin’s Rebound From $100,000

In an X post on June 7, KillaXBT provides a profound technical analysis of the Bitcoin market discussing the recent price rebound and potential developments moving forward. After reaching a new all-time high near $112,000 on May 22, BTC entered a corrective phase falling by an estimated 10% into the $100,000 price range, before it’s recent rebound in the past two days.

KillaXBT explains this rebound is not random and was driven by a combination of technical and market factors. These factors include the daily FVG and volume imbalances which are price filled inefficiencies left behind on the chart.

Furthermore, there was a liquidity sweep as Bitcoin’s steady decline pushed prices below the previous weekly lows triggering many stop-losses from long positions. This development created a flush of liquidity for big players which served as a fuel in driving a market rebound.

Finally, KillaXBT talks on a short squeeze setup whereby the Bitcoin market turned short heavy when traders expected a further downside following the initial price bounce from $100,000. When prices started going up, these short traders had to buy back to cover their losses, adding more fuel to the rally.

What Next For BTC?

Looking to the future, KillaXBT has highlighted three potential scenarios for BTC. Presently, the analysts states the premier cryptocurrency is retesting a resistance zone between $104,800-$106,000 which aligns with the 0.5-0.618 Fibonacci retracement levels of the recent price drop.

For the first scenario, KillaXBT foresees a bullish continuation only if Bitcoin breaks and holds above this resistance region. Such a move could trap short sellers once again, potentially fueling further upside momentum.

However, if Bitcoin faces rejection at this specified resistance area, the second scenario comes into play, in which the price is likely to decline and retest the $100,000 support level. The third, final and worst case scenario includes a price break below the $100,000 leading Bitcoin to retest support zones around the $97,000 price region.

Interestingly, KillaXBT’s personal projection expects market makers to continue driving Bitcoin’s price higher, capitalizing on the recent sharp rebound that caught many short traders off guard. With no clear “safe” long entry yet available, the analyst suggests that pushing prices further would trap more short sellers while forcing sidelined bulls to chase the rally

At press time, BTC continues to trade at $105,600 reflecting a 1.16% gain in the past day.

Featured image from iStock, chart from Tradingview

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Bitcoin dominance pressure Altcoins, XRP included

In expanding his initial analysis, analysts noted that XRP and XRPBTC have indecisively closed their daily candles, reflecting on the ongoing market uncertainty and lack of action in a strong direction. Although the XRPBTC is currently held above the formation of a critical double bottom, analysts stressed that the pair still looks relatively weak and requires more stable and constructive price action to confirm bullish breakouts. A strong reaction from this level can serve as a catalyst, helping XRP gain momentum from its current position on the chart.

He also noted that Bitcoin’s advantage continues to put pressure on altcoins, including XRP, causing performance degradation in the BTC pair. As Bitcoin dominance approaches a major level of resistance, analysts anticipate a reversal that could potentially bring capital flows back to altcoins. Such a reversal provides a favorable environment and supports the broader bullish continuation of XRP.

Analysts said that if XRPBTC begins to show signs of recovery and buyers start intervening with stronger momentum, he will remain in the lower time frame throughout the next trading session if he stays in the lower time frame throughout the next trading session.

Waiting for confirmation: No entries without clear movement

Conclusion of his analysis, analysts provided a short-term price measure outlook. Despite his indecisiveness, he predicts a potential rise continues if the price exceeds the $2.4650 resistance level.

Conversely, he identified $2.3160 ​​as an important level of intrinsic support. Here, buyers may step in if the market is pulled back. It’s important to watch this zone. This is because the failures below could slow the immediate bullish momentum and show further integration. Price actions between these two levels could define the short-term direction of XRP.

He emphasized that patience is important at this stage, urging traders to wait for clear and healthy moves before considering new entries. With market conditions still uncertain, analysts plan to focus on sophisticated setups and mature formations to ensure higher probability of trading in upcoming sessions.

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Bitcoin has once again taken center stage in the crypto market. Following a market resurgence, the flagship asset rebounded above the $99,000 mark. During the sudden price recovery, a significant portion of BTC moved back into profit territory.

Millions Of Bitcoins Return To Profit

The renewed general market upsurge pushed Bitcoin’s price to key resistance levels. As the cryptocurrency stages a price rebound, Glassnode, a leading financial and on-chain data platform, has called attention to a huge portion of Bitcoin returning to profit.

At the time of Glassnode’s report, Bitcoin had gained momentum as its price soared to $97,900, marking the highest level in the past two months. The data shows that more than 3 million BTC are now back in the profit zone, following the price recovery, which provided relief to market participants.

The return of previously underwater BTC holdings into profit territory is likely to bolster investor confidence and strengthen market sentiment about the sustainability of the recent rally. Furthermore, the development could set the stage for a potential sustained upside movement to crucial levels such as the $100,000 mark.

Presently, the percentage of Bitcoin’s overall supply in profit has risen to 88%, with losses previously concentrated among buyers from the $95,000 and $100,000 range. This positive advancement in supply profitability signals an impending euphoria phase. 

After examining the supply profit oscillator, Glassnode highlighted that the metric had bounced back from its long-term mean, suggesting a broader resetting of investor expectations without a widespread surrender.

Should the percentage of supply in profit continue to increase, it might spark a major rally for BTC as investors’ engagement rises in anticipation of the upsurge. Thus, the ongoing upward move above the $99,000 threshold could be part of a larger trend.

Short-Term BTC Holders Selling In The Face Of Growing Profitability

While a significant number of BTC returning to profit is believed to trigger investors’ confidence, this is not the case for short-term holders. Alphractal, an advanced on-chain data platform, revealed a surprising trend among these investors even as the recent rebound pushes short-term holders back into profit.

According to the on-chain platform, the short-term holders’ cost basis has been hit, but these players are persistently distributing their holdings. Surprisingly, this growing selling pressure is attributed to their return to profitability, raising questions about a potential short-term pullback.

Alphractal stated that the STH Realized Price currently stands at $93,400, and Bitcoin should ideally maintain this level in the near future to prevent a fresh selling wave from happening. In the meantime, this area serves as a solid base against pullbacks, and short-term holders will probably make every effort to protect it.

At the time of writing, BTC was trading at $99,700, demonstrating a nearly 4% rise in the past week. Trading volume has also grown sharply alongside price. CoinMarketCap data shows a more than 60% rise in trading volume in the past day, reflecting bullish conviction.

Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

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After two years of double-digit gains and even a decent start to 2025, the S&P 500 index (^GSPC 0.06%) reached a stumbling block in recent weeks. That came in the form of President Donald Trump’s plan to slap tariffs on imports from around the world.

Economists warned this could result in higher prices for U.S. consumers and companies, even potentially leading to a recession. Investors listened and, concerned about what’s next, some fled stocks — particularly growth stocks that are most sensitive to economic trends.

All of this weighed on the S&P 500, bringing it to a 16% decline from the start of March through its low point on April 8. Since then, the famous benchmark has started to show signs of recovery amid certain bits of positive news.

For example, Trump paused his tariff plans for 90 days to allow for negotiations with various countries. In an interview with Time Magazine, he said he’s already struck 200 tariff deals. The president also has temporarily exempted electronics from tariffs.

These moves have sparked investor optimism, helping the S&P 500 to recoup about half of its recent loss. Of course, it’s still too early to say whether the index will continue higher uninterrupted, as tariff or corporate earnings news to come could either support this momentum or push the index lower.

However, history shows that, no matter what happens in the near term, major benchmarks always have gone on to gain over the long term. Below, I’ll check out the best way to bet on an S&P 500 rebound — whether it happens now or later.

Image source: Getty Images.

Investment in many companies

To benefit from an S&P 500 recovery and eventual gains, you’ll want to be invested in many companies that are in this index. This means you have to carefully choose companies you think will lead the increase. This is a good idea today, particularly since so many stocks are trading at dirt cheap levels after falling so much.

However, this strategy takes some time as you’ll need to study the various companies and industries. You’ll also potentially need a good deal of financial resources if you aim to buy many full shares, rather than fractional ones.

Don’t be discouraged, though, because there’s another strategy available that allows you to invest in all of the S&P 500 companies with one simple purchase. This is by investing in an exchange-traded fund (ETF) that tracks the benchmark, and a fantastic one is the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO 0.19%).

ETFs are designed to help you bet on a particular theme, from an investment strategy, like dividend growth, to an industry such as technology or an index like the S&P 500. Their compositions mimic a particular benchmark — in this case the S&P 500 — and, therefore, they also mimic that benchmark’s performance.

You can buy an ETF as you would a stock as they trade daily — just like stocks. It’s easy for an investor familiar with trading stocks to jump effortlessly into ETF investing.

The only difference to be aware of is that ETFs, unlike stocks, come with management fees — you’ll see them noted as expense ratios. It’s important to stick to ETFs with an expense ratio of less than 1% in order to keep your expenses low over time.

A great time to buy

The Vanguard S&P 500 ETF, thanks to its exposure to all of the companies in the benchmark, will help you benefit from the index’s rebound and eventual gains. Now, as the S&P 500 starts to climb but is still off its peak, it’s a great time to get in on an ETF that tracks its performance.

^SPX data by YCharts.

The Vanguard ETF is down about 10% from a peak reached in February, as many of the’ share prices and valuations of the companies in the index have dipped — and this offers you an interesting entry point. Though certain companies may remain pricey, especially considering potential revisions to earnings expectations, plenty of S&P 500 companies are undervalued and should lead the overall index higher over the long run. By investing in the Vanguard ETF, you’ll automatically benefit as these strong companies soar.

Finally, a quick note about the timing of the S&P 500 rebound. It could continue in a somewhat linear manner if corporate news and tariff updates are positive, and that would be great. But if it doesn’t, don’t worry.

As I mentioned earlier, over time, the index always has advanced, so if you invest in the Vanguard ETF now, you’ll set yourself up to benefit from any potential recovery in the near term. Even better, you’ll position your portfolio for a spectacular win over the long run.