Following another rejection from the $120,000 region on July 21, Bitcoin (BTC) is now holding steady around the $115,000 level. However, realized price data suggests that BTC’s surface-level calm may be nearing its end.

Old Bitcoin Whales Stop Realizing Gains

According to a CryptoQuant Quicktake post by contributor Kripto Mevsimi, Bitcoin whale behavior indicates that the asset may be walking a tightrope. While “old whales” have stopped realizing profits, newer whales remain slightly in the green – though only marginally.

Related Reading

Here, old whales refer to large BTC holders who have held the digital asset for more than a year. New whales – including institutional players – are those who entered the market within the past year.

Kripto Mevsimi notes that the current balance between old capital and newly invested capital may not hold much longer. A decisive break in either direction could push BTC into a new price range.

The chart below illustrates the rising realized cap of old whales from 2022 to 2024, confirming that this cohort steadily realized profits during that period. Notably, this quiet distribution phase coincided with mid-cycle market conditions.

However, since early 2025, the realized cap for old whales has flattened – signalling a pause in profit-taking. Their average cost basis of $39,400 puts them well in profit, suggesting they are likely waiting for higher prices before re-entering the market.

In contrast, the average cost basis for newer whales is approximately $105,300 – a level that now serves as their psychological breakeven. As long as BTC remains above this threshold, these newer investors are unlikely to sell in large numbers.

That said, a drop below this critical level could trigger risk-off behavior among new whales. Kripto Mevsimi suggests that such a move could escalate current conditions from moderate profit-taking to panic selling, potentially triggering a wave of leverage unwinds.

Keep An Eye On Realized Price

It’s worth noting that recent activity has been minimal across both BTC investor cohorts – old whales and new whales alike. As the CryptoQuant analyst puts it:

Old whales are idle. New whales are exposed. Neither is pressing the market – yet. But once the range breaks, the reaction could be sharp.

In short, Bitcoin holders should closely monitor realized price levels. If BTC maintains a price above $105,000, newer capital is likely to remain stable. However, a drop below that could weaken the floor and invite downside pressure.

Related Reading

Conversely, a breakout toward a new all-time high – possibly around the $130,000 mark – could bring old whales back into play, expanding their realized cap. That said, a few warning signs point to potential short-term weakness.

For instance, BTC deposits to Binance have been rising steadily after months of decline, indicating that selling pressure may increase in the near future. At press time, BTC trades at $113,500, down 0.3% over the past 24 hours.

Featured image from Unsplash, charts from CryptoQuant and TradingView.com

Bitcoin has reached a new milestone with its realized capitalization crossing the $1 trillion mark for the first time, according to on-chain analytics firm Glassnode.

The surge comes just a few days after BTC’s spot price hit a fresh all-time high above $123,000, underlining the intensity of recent investor demand.

Unlike traditional market capitalization, realized cap measures the value of Bitcoin based on the price each coin last moved on-chain. This approach offers a clearer picture of actual capital stored in the network and is widely regarded as a more accurate indicator of investor conviction.

James Check, an on-chain analyst at Checkonchain, highlighted the importance of this metric by describing it as the “most important Bitcoin market metric.”

He explained:

“[The metric] values every coin at the price when it last transacted onchain. If you DCA’d 0.1 BTC back at a $10,000 price, it will be saved at 0.1x$10,000 = $1,000, irrespective of spot price. When it transacts again, it will be revalued, capturing capital flows in or out of the asset. What this metric means, is Bitcoiners have ‘saved’ $1 Trillion in real capital in Bitcoin.”

Meanwhile, Glassnode revealed that 25% of Bitcoin’s realized cap was added this year. According to the firm, this reflects the accelerating inflow of capital into the asset amid broader macro and institutional interest.

Bitcoin price faces resistance

Following this milestone, market analysts have cautioned that BTC must overcome a key resistance level at $123,370 before targeting new highs.

Joao Wedson, CEO of blockchain analytical firm Alphractal, warned that BTC’s recent rejection at this second “Alpha Price” level is a short-term red flag.

The Alpha Price is a dynamic on-chain model that blends realized price, historical average cap, and other factors to estimate likely resistance and support zones.

Wedson said:

“[Alpha Price] behaves almost like pressure zones: lower levels tend to act as strong support, while upper levels often signal increased selling pressure—especially when most wallets are deep in profit. These thresholds reflect shifts in investor sentiment and can define where buyers and sellers are likely to react.”

However, should BTC price overcome the resistance at $123,370, Alphractal forecasts the next major target between $143,000 and $146,000.

Still, the risk of an overheated derivatives market hangs on the horizon.

According to Alphractal, long positions, or traders betting on further price increases, have been dominating in recent months.

While this reflects bullish sentiment, it also increases the risk of a sudden “Long Squeeze”, a situation where falling prices liquidate overleveraged longs and could amplify downward pressure on the market.

Zack Cohen, Bitcoin Policy Institute

Before I jump into the summary, I would like to say thank you. On behalf of the entire Bitcoin Policy Institute team, we would like to thank everyone who has participated in, supported, spoke, tuned or participated in any way. I spent several months preparing for my third Bitcoin Policy Summit. What unfolded in Washington last week exceeded anything we had hoped for.

Over 1,000 people joined us, including builders, policymakers, students, agency staff, journalists, energy experts, and human rights advocates. And what they found was not the party they dressed up at the meeting, but a serious two-day working session that reflected how far the Bitcoin conversation came and where it was heading.

Bitcoin has been misunderstood or on the sidelines for a long time in DC. It was easy for policymakers to dismiss or ignore it. However, the 2025 Summit sent another signal. Bitcoin will not go away. It’s not on the fringe. It lies at the heart of a new conversation about national strategy, economic strength, digital rights and innovation.

Welcome to set the tone

We opened the week with a packed welcome party co-hosted with a friend on PubKey. To outsiders, DC may look like a strict town – button-fitting, formal, moving slowly. But if you spend real time here, you know the truth: DC is based on relationships. And relationships are built in this place.

Over 450 participants gathered in a lively room with live karaoke, strong cocktails (screams of squealing for the inventing old-fashioned bull run and miner mule), and constant conversation. It was loud. It was filled with joy. But most of all, it was a serious energy. Bitcoiner has arrived.

Who was in the room?

This year’s summit was held:

• Over 1,000 total participants
• Over 300 public policy experts
• 35 Congressional offices, including 12 members of Congress
• More than 100 Federal Employees
• Over 50 members of the media
• 49 universities
• Over 90,000 live stream viewers

Participants include national security experts, financial regulators, think tank analysts, open source developers, non-profit leaders, and more. The Bitcoin coalition is expanding, and that shows.

What we talked about

The programme was centered around clear themes of national security, energy, privacy, financial inclusion and legislative strategy. Keynotes, panels, and lightning talks created space for both technical depth and wide vision.

In the opening segment, Zack Shapiro outlined the national strategic framework for BPI. This is the vision of American Bitcoin leadership based on open source value, resilience and forward-looking policies. It was followed by a sharp panel of Senate priorities, including the Bitcoin Act.

Alex Leishman gave a data-rich talk on the benefits of American Bitcoin. It’s why the US is leading our institutions, capital markets and the rule of law. Alex Gladstein brought the lens of human rights back to life, reminding the room that Bitcoin is still the most powerful free technology of the 21st century.

Patrick Whitt, deputy director of the President’s Council on Digital Assets, reiterated the administration’s strategic interest in Bitcoin and highlighted the ongoing progress.

“There are future reports on inter-ministerial activities. We have already taken some steps in the SPR. The question now is how to follow it in the accumulation plan. There is a lack of opportunities and it is something to do.

Two Democrats, Rep. Richie Torres (D-NY) and Josh Gottheimer (D-NJ), joined Bitcoin Core’s tenth known developer, Matt Coraro, and Grant McCarty, co-chairman of BPI, to discuss the need to create a Vipartissan for the Blockchain Regulations Certification Act.

At one point on the panel, Senator Torres said,

“The value of Bitcoin is safer than gold because you can always find gold, but the supply of Bitcoin worldwide remains permanently fixed.”

Rep. Gotheimer, who recently signed as a co-sponsor of the bill, added to Torres on the stage, highlighting his decision to co-host the bill, underscoring the bill, protecting innovators and maintaining the integrity of the open source development ecosystem.

In one of the most impactful sessions, BPI’s Zack Shapiro sat down with SEC Commissioner Hester Perth to discuss the future of ETF structures, qualified custody, and Bitcoin-native financial infrastructure. It was detailed, honest, substantive – exactly what this moment wants.

Opening Hours and Q&A Room

New this year, we introduced structured opening hours. In a one-on-one session, participants can sit with our research peers. These conversations delved into mining, privacy, regulation, and financial strategies in an unfiltered environment.

The Q&A room has been added with another layer of depth. Cygnal CEO Brent Buchanan walked the recent poll of 800 medium-term voters. The findings were clear. Bitcoiner is becoming a political constituency. Ignore them at your own risk.

Anna Chekhovich also led a basic Bitcoin 101 session for policymakers, breaking down the basics of Bitcoin in plain language, rooted in her global human rights work.

Bitcoin on the hill

BPI Hill day It marked the biggest coordinated efforts ever by Bitcoin supporters who are directly involved with lawmakers. Over 120 participants participated in 118 confirmation meetings with the council office.

• 48 Senate Office
• 70 House Offices
• 10 or more meetings at the member level
• Offices from 68 Democrats and 50 Republicans
• Expressions from 28 states, DC and US territory

This was not performance. It was strategic. For many in Congress, these were their first real conversations with serious, mission-driven Bitcoin supporters.

Reflection

What stood out this year was the tone. Bitcoiner came in a suit. Not as a costume, but as a signal. We have become serious about engagement. The excitement in the room was not a hype. It was based on a common sense that focus, preparation and this moment was important.

DC responded. Policymakers and staff were not just open, they were engaged. They asked good questions. They heard. The distance between Bitcoin and Washington is shrinking quickly.

Personally, the most notable perception was that General Z was enabled. It wasn’t just the number of young people in the room. That was their presence. They were engaged, keen, curious and really excited to be part of the conversation. I have been to more meetings than I can count, but this was the first time I felt like my peers weren’t looking on bystanders. They were among them – asking questions, driving dialogue, shaping the future. And most of all, we’re just starting out.

This is just the beginning

The Bitcoin Policy Institute is set up on its own to hold a summit that does not answer anyone other than its mission. Bitcoin does not seek special treatment. It is not a lobbying activity for handouts. It argues about merits as to why it is important for American sovereignty, innovation and economic freedom.

That case has become much more difficult to ignore.

See you next year.

This is a guest post by Zack Cohen. The opinions expressed are entirely unique and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of BTC Inc or Bitcoin Magazine.

But while the headline price wavered, a closer look at Bitcoin’s full valuation stack reveals a much deeper and more resilient layer of capital inflows. Realized, delta, and thermo cap expanded throughout the first half of 2025, pointing to persistent investment even as spot prices cooled from euphoric levels.

These alternative capitalization measures are crucial for understanding what’s happening below the surface of Bitcoin’s price. Market cap is simply the circulating supply multiplied by the spot price. It offers a snapshot of value but is highly reactive and doesn’t account for how much capital has actually entered the network.

Realized cap, by contrast, adds up the value of each coin at the price it last moved on-chain, offering a view into what holders paid for their BTC. Delta cap subtracts early, low-cost coins from the equation to focus on what can be considered “capital at risk.” Thermo cap represents the cumulative dollar cost of issuing Bitcoin, summarizing what has been paid to miners to secure the network.

Realized cap hits new highs daily

As of June 30, Bitcoin’s realized cap stood at $958.01 billion, up from $812.95 billion at the beginning of the year. This $145 billion increase is especially noteworthy because it reflects newly acquired coins being moved on-chain at higher prices. Unlike market cap, which declined slightly from May’s peak, realized cap has continued climbing almost uninterrupted, setting new highs daily throughout most of the second quarter.

The implications are clear: coins are being acquired at elevated prices and held rather than sold, which marks a sharp contrast to frothy periods where realized cap stagnates while price surges. It also shows that demand hasn’t vanished with the market’s cooling and that capital is still flowing in, just more discreetly.

Delta cap tracks the institutional bid

Delta cap, which netted out early-cycle coins by subtracting the average cap from the realized cap, also showed strong growth. It rose from $572.42 billion to $667.67 billion in the first six months of the year, up $95.25 billion, or nearly 17%. The slope of this increase follows inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs, particularly into funds from BlackRock and Fidelity.

Because delta cap is designed to track more recent capital entering the network, its steady climb suggests that buying pressure is coming not from recycled retail coins but from fresh participants entering the market with conviction. This helps explain why the sell-off in late March, which saw market cap drop by over $350 billion, left realized and delta caps largely untouched. The capitulation, if it can even be called that, came from more liquid coins rather than core holdings.

MVRV cooling but not collapsing

The market cap to realized cap (MVRV) ratio is often used to track how “overheated” the market is. This gauge opened the year at 2.30 and now sits around 2.23. It dipped as low as 1.82 during the March correction, a level that has preceded renewed upside in previous cycles. At current levels, MVRV suggests the market is far from overextended yet still firmly above its long-term mean of 1.5.

The key takeaway is that Bitcoin’s price growth has been supported by proportional increases in realized capital, rather than speculative froth. In prior bull markets, MVRV pushing above 3.5 marked periods of extreme exuberance. The metric has remained comparatively restrained in this cycle despite breaking to new highs above $111,000.

Thermo cap tops $80 billion, still looks cheap

Thermo cap, a measure of cumulative miner revenue in dollar terms, has long been an overlooked metric in Bitcoin valuation. It now stands at $80.60 billion, up from $72.69 billion at the beginning of the year. While the increase may seem modest, it’s notable given that last year’s April halving slashed block rewards in half.

The metric is also helpful for contextualizing Bitcoin’s current market value. As of June 30, the market cap to thermo cap ratio is 26.45. This means the network is valued at roughly 26 times the total dollar amount it has paid miners to secure it. This ratio climbed above 40 during prior cycle peaks, indicating that the market isn’t yet overpaying for security.

Fee revenue spikes in May and early June helped cushion the drop in issuance following the halving. This kept the thermo cap rising well into 2025, albeit at a slower pace than in previous quarters. The result is a network that remains economically sustainable for miners while leaving ample room before valuations appear stretched.

Spot price slows, but cap metrics point to accumulation

Taken together, these metrics show a mature market. While price pulled back from its peak, neither realized nor delta cap rolled over, and thermo cap continued a steady upward grind. The capital structure beneath Bitcoin appears more robust than in previous cycles, bolstered by institutional inflows, long-term holder conviction, and a more sustainable miner revenue model.

This structural strength is even more compelling when we consider the context of macro uncertainty and shifting liquidity. Traditional financial inflows, like ETF creations, now show up on-chain in ways that reinforce rather than destabilize Bitcoin’s valuation foundation. This is especially evident in delta cap’s YTD performance, which aligns closely with net ETF inflows and on-chain acquisition of newly issued supply.

The decline in MVRV, despite a record market cap in May, further reinforces the idea that this bull run, though not devoid of speculation, is not supported by actual investment and not just leverage.
Bitcoin’s first half of 2025 reveals a market that has evolved past its adolescence. Behind every price swing sits a slower, steadier foundation of value accrual. Realized, delta, and thermo cap all point to sustained belief in Bitcoin’s long-term narrative without the blow-off froth that marked previous tops.

The post Bitcoin realized market cap stacking shows silent strength beneath price action appeared first on CryptoSlate.

Trusted Editorial content, reviewed by leading industry experts and seasoned editors. Ad Disclosure

Bitcoin’s current bearish movements appear to have intensified as market sentiment wanes, causing the flagship asset to lose the key $104,000 price level. Despite the recent pullback, key metrics such as the BTC Realized Profits are still in a positive range.

Realized Profits On Bitcoin At A Neutral Level

Following Bitcoin’s price decline, on-chain data shows that the Bitcoin market dynamics are seeing a cool-off as BTC Realized profits remain at a key zone. The current levels of realized profit indicate that the market is functioning in a state of sound equilibrium, showing no immediate indications of overheating or undue speculation.

On-chain expert and verified author Darkfost reported the development in a recent post on the X platform. According to the on-chain expert, as Bitcoin stabilizes in the face of economic and geopolitical uncertainties, keeping an eye on on-chain activity becomes essential.

Currently, Darkfost has stated that there are no significant red flags regarding realized profits on Bitcoin within the 7-day timeframe. In the current state of the market, the expert believes that it is crucial to monitor these indicators in order to predict any changes in market structure or attitude.

Even though bearish pressure is building in the sector, this stability suggests that the market may still have the capacity to rise as investors are exercising patience rather than making hasty withdrawals.

After he analyzed the BTC Net Realized Profit/Loss metric, Darkfost revealed that realized profits are still below a $1 billion value. This level is similar to what was captured near the conclusion of the correction in October 2024, as seen on the chart.

Despite a minor increase during the most recent all-time high, realized profits were still far lower than those recorded in January 2025. Such a positioning from the metric implies that investors and traders are not concerned enough or are not seeing enough profit to spark a large-scale sell-off.

A Huge Change In BTC’s Realized Cap

Looking into Bitcoin’s Realized Cap – UTXO Age Bands by percentage, the metric shows a shift in BTC movements. Kyle Doops, a market expert and Crypto Banter Show host, noted that more BTC is currently moving to strong hands or seasoned investors after he examined the key metric.

Data from the key on-chain metric shows that the share of UTXOs held for 6 to 12 months has now doubled. According to the expert, this notable advancement marks a massive shift in market dynamics.

Following the massive shift, Kyle Doops highlighted that conviction is increasing and supply is becoming more scarce. Such a trend was observed in the past, particularly in 2024. Historically, this kind of setup has preceded a rebound in price, which suggests that the ongoing volatility may be the calm before a major run.

Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

Editorial Process for bitcoinist is centered on delivering thoroughly researched, accurate, and unbiased content. We uphold strict sourcing standards, and each page undergoes diligent review by our team of top technology experts and seasoned editors. This process ensures the integrity, relevance, and value of our content for our readers.

Analytics platform Glassnode says one Bitcoin investor cohort is suddenly selling the most BTC for realized gains.

According to the analytics platform, those holding onto Bitcoin between six and 12 months are abruptly locking in massive gains at a rate exceeding all other cohorts, raking in a $904 million profit on Monday.

“Last week, we highlighted how BTC wallets that held greater than 12 months were the primary profit-takers.

But that trend has now flipped. [On Monday]: less than 12 months cohorts accounted for 83% of all realized profit. Six to 12-month holders alone realized $904 million – the second-highest daily profit year to date.”

Glassnode says the same six-to-12-month investor cohort netted more profits two months ago.

“Mid-cycle buyers (six-12 months) stepped up on June 16th with $904 million in realized gains. That’s just behind the April top in terms of daily profits – and shows that Q4’24 buyers are now distributing heavily.”

However, the analytics firm says that the selling of Bitcoin for profits is slowing way down for long-term BTC holders.

“Meanwhile, greater than 12-month holders realized just $324 million, a notable drop from the relentless profit realization in May or even the last week’s peak of around $1.2 billion.

Bottomline: seasoned BTC holders are stepping back for now – and newer coins are now driving market sell pressure.”

Follow us on X, Facebook and Telegram

Don’t Miss a Beat – Subscribe to get email alerts delivered directly to your inbox

Check Price Action

Surf The Daily Hodl Mix

&nbsp

Disclaimer: Opinions expressed at The Daily Hodl are not investment advice. Investors should do their due diligence before making any high-risk investments in Bitcoin, cryptocurrency or digital assets. Please be advised that your transfers and trades are at your own risk, and any losses you may incur are your responsibility. The Daily Hodl does not recommend the buying or selling of any cryptocurrencies or digital assets, nor is The Daily Hodl an investment advisor. Please note that The Daily Hodl participates in affiliate marketing.

Generated Image: Midjourney

Crypto Writer

Arslan Butt

Crypto Writer

Arslan Butt

About Author

Arslan Butt is an experienced webinar speaker, market analyst, and content writer specializing in crypto, forex, and commodities. He provides expert insights, trading strategies, and in-depth analysis…

Share

Last updated: 

June 14, 2025

XRP has taken the lead over Solana in realized capital growth, indicating renewed investor confidence. According to Glassnode, XRP’s 30-day percentage change in realized cap—a metric that measures the total value of coins moved at their last price—has jumped +4.2%. Solana has only seen +1% growth over the same period.

This divergence means capital is rotating into XRP faster than Solana, implying short-term accumulation by traders who are positioning for a breakout. Realized cap is especially useful during times of uncertainty, as it shows wealth that has actually moved on-chain rather than speculative market value. A higher realized cap growth often correlates with more network activity and investor confidence.

For context:

• XRP 30D Realized Cap: +4.2%
• SOL 30D Realized Cap: +1%

The big jump in XRP’s realized capital could be seen as a sign of shifting sentiment among retail and institutional traders alike, possibly ahead of regulatory clarity or broader crypto market momentum.

XRP Technical Analysis Says Be Cautious

Despite the on-chain strength, XRP’s chart is still cautionary. It’s trading at $2.13, down 0.70% in the last 24 hours and stuck below a descending trendline that has rejected every bullish attempt since early June.

Price action failed to reclaim the 50-period EMA on the 2-hour chart (now at $2.19), and XRP has printed a lower high. Red-bodied candles with rejection wicks at $2.18 show continued resistance.

The MACD has a slight bullish crossover, but the histogram is fading, so not much momentum for now.

Key Technical Levels:

• Resistance: $2.18, $2.22
• Support: $2.09, $2.0474, $2.0042
• EMA Barrier: 50-EMA at $2.19

XRP price prediction remains bearish unless XRP breaks above the descending trendline and confirms strength above $2.22; traders may continue to see downside pressure.

XRP Trade Setups to Watch

As XRP consolidates under resistance, traders have clearly defined levels to monitor for both bullish and bearish strategies.

Short Trade Idea:

• Entry: Rejection near $2.18
• Stop: Above $2.22
• Targets: $2.0936, $2.0474

Long Trade Setup:

• Entry: Breakout and close above $2.22
• Stop: Below $2.18
• Targets: $2.27, $2.3365

For now, the fundamentals suggest investor interest is heating up, but price must follow through with a clean breakout to confirm the next leg higher. Until then, XRP remains at a technical crossroads.

BTC Bull Token Nears $8.1M Cap as 58% APY Staking Attracts Last-Minute Buyers

With Bitcoin trading near $105K, investor focus is shifting toward altcoins, especially BTC Bull Token ($BTCBULL). The project has now raised $7,141,005.09 out of its $8,216,177 cap, leaving less than $1 million before the next token price hike. The current price of $0.00256 is expected to increase once the cap is hit.

BTC Bull Token links its value directly to Bitcoin through two core mechanisms:

• BTC Airdrops reward holders, with presale participants receiving priority.
• Supply Burns occur automatically every time BTC increases by $50,000, reducing $BTCBULL’s circulating supply.

The token also features a 58% APY staking pool holding over 1.81 billion tokens, offering:

The token also features a 61% APY staking pool holding over 1.73 billion tokens, offering:

• No lockups or fees
• Full liquidity
• Stable passive yields, even in volatile markets

This staking model appeals to both DeFi veterans and newcomers seeking hands-off income.

With just hours left and the hard cap nearly reached, momentum is building fast. BTCBULL’s blend of Bitcoin-linked value, scarcity mechanics, and flexible staking is fueling strong demand. Early buyers have a limited time to enter before the next pricing tier activates.

One-week realized volatility printed 94 % on April 12, the highest reading since Jan. 10, 2023. That spike coincided with a $3,124 intraday drop to $82,747 and a close at $85,270. Eight days later, the same gauge fell to 16 % as the price settled near $85,000 after a narrow $1,479 range. The market saw only one faster weekly 50-point contraction since October 2022.

Activity picked up again on April 23, as Bitcoin gained $2,785 intraday and closed at $93,715, pushing one-week realized volatility back to 54%. Greeks.live order-book snapshots show Deribit open interest at the $95,000 call strike rising to 13,000 contracts from 3,920 earlier that day, an extra $160 million notional, and the largest one-day build since spot ETFs launched in January. The front-month put-call ratio slid to 0.41, confirming traders were chasing upside rather than hedging exposure.

Two-week realized volatility eased in steps: 71% on April 12, 59% on April 20, 54% on April 23, and 40% on April 30. Meanwhile, one- and three-month realized held at 56%, while the six-month realized hit 54%. The flat medium-term profile means day-to-day swings calm quickly, yet traders with longer horizons still price mid-50% moves.

A 16% short leg against roughly 55% one-month implied leaves dealers collecting about 0.8 volatility points of theta per day. With realized this low, gamma risk is limited and market makers can hedge by selling spot into rallies. Upside usually pauses unless a fresh catalyst forces them to rebalance, which happened briefly on April 23 when ETF creations spiked.

Price action in the final week of April illustrates the carry trade. From April 25 to April 30, Bitcoin’s intraday range averaged about $1,900, one-week realized stayed at 16%, and one-month implied settled at 55%. Binance funding averaged 0.0066% per eight-hour window versus 0.039% on April 12. Liquidations fell to $78 million on April 30 from $485 million on April 12.

Six-month realized sitting at 54%, the same level as Jan. 1, shows the market still expects large swings heading into the Federal Reserve’s summer meetings and the US election. April, therefore, depicts a market willing to drift higher on steady ETF demand but quick to throttle activity when momentum fades.

Volatility spikes come in short bursts tied to large cash prints and fade faster than they did in 2024. That pattern suits carry strategies yet builds latent risk: the longer one-week volatility hovers near 15%, the sharper the reset once the next impulse hits.

The post Bitcoin short term realized volatility drops to 16% after early April spike appeared first on CryptoSlate.