Bitcoin has realized that for the first time in this cycle it has surpassed the 200-WMA

As analyst James Van Stratin pointed out in X’s new post, Bitcoin achieved the price, and the 200-week MA saw the crossover. “Realized Price” here simply refers to an on-chain indicator that tracks the cost base of the average investor or address on the BTC network.

If the value of this metric is higher than the spot price, it means that the entire holder is in a state of net unrealized profit. Meanwhile, being under the value of BTC suggests that the average investor is underwater.

Another metric shared by analysts, 200-week MA is a technical analysis (TA) pricing model that averages BTC closing prices over the past 200 weeks. As it is equivalent to almost four years of 200 weeks, this indicator is used to measure trend shifts in BTC over a classic four-year cycle.

Well, here’s the chart shared by Van Stratin.

As seen in the graph above, we realised that Bitcoin has risen over the past year. This is a natural result of BTC spot prices following the upward trend. As investors trade at a higher price, they also value the cost base of the coin, which increases the market average.

After the latest increase in indicators, its value surged beyond the 200-week MA. The last time the former was higher than the latter was in the previous cycle.

At the time, the crossover occurred in 2020, and orientation remained in place until 2022. Interestingly, the timing of the crossover coincided with the start of the bull run in that cycle. In the 2017 cycle, the crossover did not precede the bull run as realised prices never fell under the 200-week MA, but a retest occurred, with the metric flying along the spot price.

“As the uptrend begins, bull markets also begin,” analysts point out. Now it is still unknown whether something similar will happen in the past, and we recognize that Bitcoin is seeing a more sustained surge than its 200-week MA.

Speaking of bullish signals, Capriol Investment founder Charles Edwards revealed that institutional purchases have recently accounted for 75% of Coinbase volume.

Edwards notices an interesting pattern associated with this metric. “All measurements above 75% showed higher prices after a week,” the analyst explains.

BTC price

Bitcoin set a new all-time high of over $124,000 on Wednesday, but the coin has plummeted ever since as prices returned to $118,300.

Bitcoin’s short-term price direction remains uncertain as the market struggles to see what it will next move. Analysts and investors are split, with some seeking a breakout to a new all-time high, while others expect new sales pressures at low prices. Prices have been consolidated in a narrow range for the past 12 days, facing resistance below $100,000, above the $94,000 demand level.

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Cryptoquant’s key data reveals that the closest support zone to BTC is formed between $91,000 and $95,000. This range is enhanced by two key technical indicators: the 111-day Simple Moving Average (SMA 111D) currently at $95,000, and the Short-Term Holder (STH) delivers a price of $91,000. These levels suggest that BTC is trading beyond historically important support areas where short-term holders have achieved profits or losses.

The long-term structure remains bullish, but investors are becoming impatient as BTC cannot regain its main resistance levels. If Bitcoin can push more than $100,000 in the coming days, analysts are hoping to meet up for price discovery. However, losing support from around $94,000 to $95,000 could lead to an increase in sales pressure and a deeper correction to a low demand zone.

Bitcoin prepares for a critical move

Bitcoin’s recent integration phase has fueled speculation about potential breakouts. Many analysts suggest that the market is witnessing calm before the storm. The short-term direction remains uncertain, but the long-term bullish structure remains intact, with many expecting BTC to move quickly towards a new history high.

Crypto analyst Axel Adler shares X’s critical encrypted data, highlighting that Bitcoin’s closest support zone forms around $91,000-95,000. This range is important as it delivers a 111-day simple moving average (SMA 111D) and $95,000, with short-term holders (STHs) achieving prices at $91,000. These levels represent areas where short-term holders have historically achieved profits or losses, and are important to maintain bullish momentum.

On the resistance side, Adler points out that Bitcoin is facing a key supply zone between $98,000 and $101,000. This area is defined by the owner’s total exit price, with a holding period of $100,800 for a week to one month and a holding period of $98,200 for a one month to three months.

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As BTC continues to trade within this narrow range, investors are closely watching these levels for a critical breakout. Pushing over $101K can cause rallies in price discovery. Losing support for $91,000 can lead to even more downsides.

The BTC Bulls face a big test

Bitcoin is trading at $95,600 after nearly two weeks of lateral movement within a narrow range, fluctuating at less than 4% in either direction. This long-term integration awaits a critical move in either direction, giving traders the advantage.

To maintain a bullish structure, the BTC must maintain a level of $95,000. This price range coincides with technical support, and the breaks below that could indicate strong sales pressure. The Bulls are facing important tests at this stage. Because they have to defend this support and start pushing above the main levels of resistance.

To see a breakout, Bitcoin will need to regain its $98,000 mark and ultimately the psychologically significant $100,000 level. Successful moves beyond these levels will challenge the highest ever highs and provide the momentum needed to re-enter price discovery. However, if you can’t hold $95,000, then BTC could potentially test a support zone close to $91,000, potentially close to $91K.

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As Bitcoin consolidates, traders are cautious and monitor the volume spikes and increased purchase pressure to see the next price movement. The next few days will be important in determining whether BTC will resume uptrends or face further revisions.

Dall-E special images, TradingView chart