Analysts at the financial giant Goldman Sachs upgraded their S&P 500 projections amid new predictions for rate cuts from the U.S. Federal Reserve.

Goldman Sachs Research economists say there’s more than a 50% chance of the Fed cutting rates at the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting in September, three months earlier than their previous prediction.

Goldman economists predict 25-basis-point cuts in September, October, and December, and March and June of 2026.

The upgraded forecast is due to early evidence that indicates the impact of President Donald Trump’s tariffs has been somewhat less dramatic than initially expected. David Mericle, chief US economist in Goldman Sachs Research, also notes that it has become harder to find a job in the US, though he says the labor market remains healthy overall.

The CME FedWatch Tool estimates there’s a 62.7% chance the Fed will cut the rate by 25 basis points at the FOMC meeting in September. The FedWatch Tool generates probabilities using the 30-day Fed Funds futures prices.

Due to the upgraded forecast, Goldman Sachs strategists raised their 12-month forecast for the S&P 500 index from 6,500 to 6,900, Bloomberg reports. They also increased their year-end target from 6,100 to 6,600.

The S&P 500 is trading at 6,225.52 at time of writing. The leading index is up 0.5% in the past five days and 3.66% in the past month.

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As Bitcoin gradually recovers from its recent breakdown below the $100,000 mark, it appears to have triggered a fresh wave of bearish activity from investors. Its market dynamics are about to transition as key metrics such as the Funding Rates on the Binance platform have taken a negative turn.

Binance Traders Betting Against Bitcoin

In a dramatic bounce, Bitcoin has reclaimed the $105,000 price mark and is slowly approaching $106,000. While BTC has recovered, the impressive run has been met with negative sentiment, particularly from investors on Binance, the largest cryptocurrency exchange.

Darkfost, a verified author for CryptoQuant, reported that funding rates on the Binance exchange have declined sharply, signaling a shift in trader sentiment. Data from the expert reveals that the rates dropped to the -0.0033 level just as BTC swiftly bounced back since this past weekend.

This scenario implies that traders are progressively placing bets on further decline, indicating that bearish pressure is building on Binance. Negative funding rates may signal pessimism, but historically, they have also preceded short squeezes. As the price of Bitcoin navigates increased volatility and shifting momentum, this is a crucial period to observe.

According to the on-chain expert, negative financing rates suggest that most open positions are currently short as investors question whether the recent upward move is sustainable. Although this may initially appear to be negative, markets often move against the crowd, particularly when there is an overcrowded short side.

Furthermore, Darkfost has drawn attention to past scenarios, particularly in September last year. During the period, the market constantly shifted in the opposite direction whenever Binance’s funding rates fell into negative territory, whether in the short or medium term.

However, the sole exception was when new tariff policies were announced, momentarily altering market dynamics. If shorts persistently increase on the Binance platform, Darkfost is confident that these positions could eventually bolster the rally that started earlier this week.

Thus far, the expert has offered one key takeaway, stating that it is crucial to understand that the natural tendency of traders leans toward longing the market, which makes this current signal more remarkable.

BTC To Surge To A New All-Time High

After rallying earlier this week, BTC is currently facing significant resistance at the $106,500 threshold. However, this resistance level could give way soon, as Michael Van De Poppe, a market expert, has predicted a major rally to new all-time highs.

According to the expert, Bitcoin is stalling at levels below $106,500 until the next significant surge to new highs occurs. Van De Poppe believes that the anticipated move is only a matter of time, and BTC is likely to reach a new peak in July. Therefore, the expert suggests “buying the dip now is the best strategy.”

Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

Editorial Process for bitcoinist is centered on delivering thoroughly researched, accurate, and unbiased content. We uphold strict sourcing standards, and each page undergoes diligent review by our team of top technology experts and seasoned editors. This process ensures the integrity, relevance, and value of our content for our readers.

Crypto Journalist

Anas Hassan

Crypto Journalist

Anas Hassan

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Anas is a crypto native journalist and SEO writer with over five years of writing experience covering blockchain, crypto, DeFi, and emerging tech.

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Last updated: 

June 12, 2025

President Donald Trump has escalated his public feud with Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, branding him a “numbskull” while simultaneously pledging not to fire the central bank chief despite mounting frustration over the Fed’s reluctance to slash interest rates.

Speaking at a White House event Thursday, Trump delivered his harshest criticism of Powell’s monetary policy approach, claiming that lowering rates by just one percentage point could save the United States $300 billion annually, while a two-point reduction would generate $600 billion in savings.

Why Trump Wants to ‘Force Something’

Trump’s latest verbal assault marks the third time in two days that his administration has publicly targeted Powell. It follows similar criticisms from Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick and Vice President JD Vance, who called the Fed’s stance “monetary malpractice.”

The coordinated pressure campaign came from the administration’s growing impatience with the central bank’s independence, particularly as Trump faces re-election pressures and seeks to demonstrate economic leadership.

Despite repeatedly calling Powell “Too Late” and questioning why firing him would be controversial, Trump stopped short of threatening termination, instead ominously suggesting he “may have to force something” if rate cuts don’t materialize soon.

The timing of Trump’s criticism appears strategic, coming as recent economic indicators show inflation cooling and energy prices declining due to increased domestic drilling under his “drill, baby, drill” energy policy.

Powell’s current term as Fed chair expires in May 2026, and Trump has hinted that an announcement regarding his nominee for the next Fed chair could come soon.

Harvard legal experts suggest that while Trump may have constitutional authority to remove Powell, such a move would likely trigger severe market volatility and undermine the Fed’s credibility as an inflation fighter, potentially causing long-term interest rates to spike even if short-term rates were cut.

Presidential Pressure Campaign Intensifies Fed Independence Debate

The escalating confrontation between Trump and Powell is a fundamental clash over Federal Reserve independence with deep constitutional and economic implications.

Trump’s frustration stems from his belief that the current interest rate environment unnecessarily burdens federal borrowing costs, particularly as the government faces mounting short-term debt obligations approved during the Biden administration.

The president argued that Europe has implemented ten rate cuts while the Fed has delivered none, despite similar economic conditions and falling inflation metrics.

Legal scholars say that while the Federal Reserve Act of 1913 allows governors to be removed “for cause,” the Supreme Court’s recent decisions have gradually eroded the traditional “for cause” protections that independent agencies have enjoyed for 85 years.

Harvard Law School’s Daniel Tarullo, a former Fed Board member, suggests that three conservative justices have hinted at potentially treating the Federal Reserve differently from other agencies, possibly creating a carve-out based on the central bank’s historical precedent dating back to the First and Second Banks of the United States.

However, market dynamics may provide Powell with more protection than legal statutes, as any attempt to remove the Fed chair would likely trigger immediate and severe market reactions that would prove counterproductive to Trump’s economic objectives.

The anticipated market volatility is a powerful disincentive, particularly given that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has focused on maintaining stable 10-year Treasury rates, which are key for economic investment decisions.

Recent economic indicators have strengthened Trump’s argument for immediate monetary easing. Inflation data show continued price stability and energy costs declining due to expanded domestic oil production.

The favorable Producer Price Index reading in May has calmed fears about tariff-induced inflation spikes, emboldening the administration to intensify pressure on the Fed while markets increasingly price in potential rate cuts later this year.

US banks are now saddled with $413.2 billion in unrealized losses on their balance sheets.

In its new Quarterly Banking Profile for the first quarter of 2025, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) says US banks reported a $67.5 billion decrease in unrealized losses on securities, primarily Treasuries and other bonds.

Although it looks like progress, the FDIC warns the decrease has likely already reversed amid extreme bond market volatility and a surging Treasury yield curve.

“Longer-term interest rates such as the 30-year mortgage rate and the 10-year Treasury rate decreased in the first quarter, increasing the value of securities reported by banks and lowering unrealized losses.

However, increases in longer-term interest rates since the end of the first quarter would likely reverse most of these improvements in unrealized losses if measured today.”

Rebel Cole, who worked in the Federal Reserve System for ten years, tells Fortune that today’s levels of unrealized losses represent a serious ongoing danger for lenders.

“All it takes is one bad news story about any of these banks, and we could have another banking crisis like we had in March of [2023].

I’m amazed we haven’t had one since then.”

Unrealized losses represent the difference between the price banks paid for securities and the current market value of those assets.

Concern over such paper losses played a major role in the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank in 2023, as depositors panicked and withdrew funds after learning the bank sold securities at a steep loss to cover liquidity needs.

The FDIC says banks recorded a $180.9 billion rise in domestic deposits in Q1, which is about 1%, and a $3.8 billion increase in net income to $70.6 billion, with a reserve coverage ratio declining from 179.9% to 168.8%.

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Billionaire investor and founder of hedge fund Bridgewater Associates, Ray Dalio, thinks it is not yet time for the Federal Reserve to ease the US monetary policy.

In a new Bloomberg interview, Dalio says the Fed “should not cut interest rates” despite the pressure to do so.

Dalio says that over the longer term, when the current Fed Governor Jay Powell’s term ends in May of 2026, the Fed could, however, end up cutting rates due to political pressure.

“There’s a great deal of uncertainty and there’s a deterioration in sentiment, but really the actual economy. So they (the Fed) are in a difficult position.

I think that when we look farther out, we’re dealing with the political aspects… I think that when there’s a new Fed chair, there will likely be more inclination to cut rates because it’s an old story of conflict between those in power, in political [power], who like stimulation. And because of the enormous impact of interest rates on debt service, because the debts are so large, there’s going to be pressure that way.”

According to Dalio, the aggressive easing of US monetary policy could negatively impact the bond market.

“I think the markets, if they were to see a too aggressive cut in monetary policy, too inappropriate cut, that it would actually be bad for the bond market….

… watch the yield curve. As you get rates rising by long rates and you have also at the same time, let’s say, movement down in the dollar and rises in gold, that kind of dynamic is reflecting a movement out of the bonds. Because the value of money matters a lot.”

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Billionaire and hedge fund legend Steve Cohen reportedly believes that the US economy is not yet over the hump despite positive developments over the last few weeks.

At the Sohn Investment Conference in New York, the head of Point72 Asset Management says there’s a 45% chance that the US will enter a period of economic contraction, reports Bloomberg.

“We aren’t in a recession yet, but we have significant slowing growth.”

Cohen predicts that the US economy will grow by 1.5% in 2026, noting that the figure is “OK but not phenomenal.”

Data from Trading Economics shows that the US GDP has grown 3.2% on average from 1947 until 2025.

Turning to the S&P 500, Cohen notes that the stock market’s abrupt reversal after falling to a low of 4,835 points in April is “unusual,” comparing the move to the rallies witnessed after the March 2020 Covid-induced collapse.

For now, the billionaire says it is within the realm of possibility for the S&P 500 to retrace by as much as 15% or just move sideways in the coming months.

“Markets don’t have to go up every year. Markets can go sideways and that’s perfectly normal.” 

As for the Federal Reserve, Cohen thinks that Chair Jerome Powell will keep interest rates steady to cushion the economy against tariff-induced shocks.

“They are going to be worried about inflation from tariffs.”

Cohen is not the only one to sound the alarm about the possibility of the US entering an economic recession. Last week, JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon said that a US economic downturn is something he wouldn’t take off the table at this point, even after the White House signed a trade truce with China last week.

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This apparent contradiction starts making sense when looking at how the market behaved in the past week. The funding rate in perpetual futures contracts ensures that the contract price aligns with the spot price by facilitating periodic payments between long and short position holders.

A negative funding rate, as observed on March 25 and March 26, means shorts are paying longs, suggesting that the contract price is below the spot price — a hallmark of bearish sentiment where traders anticipate a price decline. On March 25, the funding rate dropped to -0.040%, and it remained at this level throughout March 26, according to data from CoinGlass.

However, liquidation data tells a different story. Over a one-hour period, short liquidations totaled $14.19 million compared to just $671,540 for longs, and over four hours, shorts saw $23.50 million in liquidations against $2.28 million for longs. Short liquidations occur when the price rises, forcing short traders to buy back contracts at higher prices to cover their positions, often amplifying the upward movement.

How can a negative funding rate, indicative of bearish sentiment, align with predominantly short liquidations, which suggest a price rally? To answer this, we turn to Bitcoin’s spot price in the past week.

On March 20, Bitcoin closed at $84,175.02. The price dipped slightly to $84,053.96 on March 21 and further to $83,843.18 on March 22, but it began a steady climb thereafter, reaching $86,142.15 on March 23 and $87,512.12 on March 24.

This upward trend, a roughly 4% gain from March 20 to March 24, was accompanied by a positive funding rate, peaking at 0.050% on March 24. A positive funding rate, where longs pay shorts, reflects a contract price above the spot price, consistent with the bullish price movement and suggesting that traders were willing to pay a premium to hold long positions.

The turning point came on March 25. Bitcoin opened at $87,515.76, slightly above the previous day’s close, and reached a high of $88,564.14, continuing the upward momentum. However, the price pulled back to close at $87,424.41, a modest decline of $87.71 from March 24.

On March 26, the price opened at $87,488.28, dipped to a low of $87,075.71, but rallied to close at $88,016.46 — a gain of $592.05 from the previous day’s close. This price action confirms the occurrence of a rally — albeit with some consolidation — that would have triggered the significant short liquidations observed. This means that short traders, betting on a price decline, were caught off guard by the upward movement, leading to a short squeeze where they were forced to buy back contracts at higher prices.

However, the negative funding rate on these days suggests that the futures market, on average, remained bearish. The funding rate is calculated over a fixed period, often every eight hours, based on the average difference between the contract and spot prices. While the intraday price spikes on March 25 and March 26 drove short liquidations, the average contract price over the funding periods was likely below the spot price, reflecting a broader expectation of a price correction. This expectation may have been fueled by the price increase in the past week, which could have led traders to see the market as overbought as the price rallied.

On March 25, Bitcoin’s price ranged from a low of $86,322.37 to a high of $88,564.14 — a $2,241.77 swing. This volatility likely contributed to the disconnect between the funding rate and liquidations. The short liquidations were a reaction to the intraday rally, particularly the push toward $88,564.14. However, the subsequent pullback to $87,424.41 on March 25 and the dip to $87,075.71 on March 26 may have dragged the average contract price below the spot price, resulting in a negative funding rate.

This illustrates the timing mismatch between funding rate calculations and real-time market movements. While liquidations occur instantly in response to price changes, the funding rate reflects a longer-term average, capturing the prevailing sentiment over the funding period.

The post Short liquidations contradict negative funding rates in perpetual futures appeared first on CryptoSlate.

With rates currently over 4%, certificates of deposit (CDs) can seem like a no-brainer: They offer a guaranteed return with zero risk. But despite the tempting rates, I’ve never opened a CD, and I don’t plan to. Here’s why.

1. My money needs to stay flexible

One of the biggest drawbacks of CDs is the lack of flexibility. When you put your money in a CD, you’re committing to leave it there for months or even years. If you need to withdraw money before the CD matures, you’ll often face penalties that eat into your interest and sometimes even your principal.

I prefer to keep my cash in one of the best high-yield savings accounts. The rates are currently similar to CDs, and I can access my money anytime without worrying about penalties. Life is unpredictable, and I’d rather have quick access to my cash if an emergency, or an investment opportunity, comes up.

2. I can earn more elsewhere

While a 4% (or higher) return sounds great, it’s not the best option for growing wealth over the long term. CDs are safe, but they often lag behind inflation and don’t offer the same upside as other investments.

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Instead, I keep most of my money in stocks and index funds through a tax-advantaged retirement account: a Roth IRA. Historically, the stock market has returned 10% annually over the long run — far outpacing even the best CD rates. Sure, the market has ups and downs, but since I don’t need that money right away, I’m willing to ride out the volatility for higher potential returns.

3. Interest rates are always changing

Locking my money into a CD feels like a gamble. If I open a CD today at 4%, what happens if rates climb to 5% next month? I’ll be stuck with a lower rate while others are earning more.

By keeping my cash in a more flexible account, I can take advantage of rising rates without being locked into a long-term commitment. Some savings accounts adjust their rates regularly, meaning I can benefit from increasing returns without losing access to my money.

Earn more than 10 times the national average on your savings. Open a high-yield savings account today.

There are better options out there

CDs can be a good option for those who prioritize safety and don’t mind locking up their money. But for me, flexibility, higher earning potential, and the ability to adapt to changing rates are more important.

If you’re considering a CD, ask yourself: Do I need access to my money? Am I comfortable with the returns? Do I want to lock in a rate now? Depending on your answers, a CD might be the right choice for you. But for now, I’ll be keeping my cash elsewhere.