A weekend Truth Social post from President Donald Trump set in motion the first steps in creating a strategic U.S. bitcoin (BTC) reserve, but Polymarket traders are skeptical that it will happen within the first 100 days.

As of press time, Polymarket bettors are giving a 23% chance that a strategic BTC reserve will be created within the first 100 days of the Trump presidency – or by April 30th, 2025.

Rules of the contract say that the U.S. government will need to specifically hold bitcoin – and not from confiscation – by 11:59 PM ET on April 29 for this to resolve to yes. Announcements of the creation of a reserve do not count.

Chances of a reserve coming true spiked from 11% to 23% in the moments after Trump’s announcement. Another contract that asks if a reserve will be created by the end of 2025 currently has a 65% chance of resolving to yes.

Initially, Trump’s social media post announcing the creation of the reserve only named XRP and SOL as components of the reserve—which caused their value to spike—before clarifying that BTC and ETH would also be included in the reserve.

One of the most profitable traders of the 100-day crypto reserve contract is Theo5, which appears to be affiliated with a French trader who created a series of accounts, including Theo4, to directionally bet on Trump’s victory in the November 2024 election.

Theo5 currently has posted a $40,000 profit on his no position.

Meanwhile, a trader known as Polywog lost $73,000 on their yes position and also lost over $560,000 by incorrectly betting on the outcome of the 2025 election.

The Trump election victory has caused a stir across many industries, and Web3 is no exception. With a history of policy changes and evolving views on digital assets, a Trump presidency could have a big impact on Web3 gaming, which is the epicenter of innovation, community building and digital ownership.

Trump’s Web3 views

Donald Trump’s views on Web3 have changed. Back in 2021, he initially called Bitcoin a “scam” and worried about it disrupting the US dollar. However, his stance has changed drastically since then, and his administration is getting more crypto-friendly. This aligns with the global trend of blockchain integration and crypto-friendly laws in many countries. By relaxing regulations, Trump’s administration might look to encourage more innovation in Web3 gaming, which relies on blockchain and cryptocurrencies for digital ownership and in-game economies.

The Trump administration has promised to look at policies that support the blockchain industry. Web3 gaming would benefit greatly from this recognition, especially as regulatory clarity is key to innovation. As Web3 gaming relies on tokenized economies, less restrictions will allow developers and players to engage more freely without fear of legal consequences or regulatory barriers.

Trump’s Web3 History

During Trump’s first term, the crypto market went through growth, correction and growth again:

2017: Bitcoin went from around $1,000 to nearly $20,000, and Ethereum from $8 to over $700. Market cap went from $17 billion to over $600 billion.

2018: A big correction, Bitcoin went to $3,200 and Ethereum to $130 and market cap went to around $130 billion.

2019: The market stabilized, Bitcoin ranged from $3,000 to $13,000 and Ethereum from $100 to $350. Market cap ranged from $100 billion to $300 billion.

2020: Despite the COVID pandemic, Bitcoin and Ethereum went up, closing at over $29,000 and $700 respectively and market cap went over $750 billion.

Trump’s views on SEC Chair Gary Gensler

One of Trump’s recent attacks was on SEC Chair Gary Gensler and his views on crypto regulation. Trump has said he will replace Gensler and appoint someone more crypto-friendly. For Web3 gaming, this will have big implications. With a more crypto-friendly SEC chair, gaming platforms that use cryptocurrency will have fewer regulatory hurdles, especially on token issuance and trading.

A pro-crypto SEC will also attract bigger investors to Web3 gaming, a space that has grown fast but has yet to gain mainstream acceptance. Reducing these regulatory hurdles will legitimize Web3 gaming’s in-game assets and create a path for Web3 games to reach new users and expand their digital economies.

Investment and Development

If Trump’s administration continues the pro-crypto approach, Web3 gaming will see a big surge in investment. As blockchain gaming is growing and has millions of users globally, having an administration that supports cryptocurrency development will mean a good investment climate. For example, more venture capital will accelerate the development of decentralized gaming platforms and create an environment for innovation.

A pro-crypto Trump administration might also encourage traditional gaming companies to explore blockchain integration and create collaborations that will bring Web3 gaming to the mainstream.

As the US shapes its crypto policy, other countries usually follow or take cues to shape their own regulatory approach. A US-friendly blockchain policy will make the country a digital innovation leader and will create international collaborations in Web3 gaming or conflicts in regulatory policies.

Conclusion

Trump back in the White House could be big for Web3 gaming. His administration is warming up to crypto and blockchain so a more friendly regulatory environment for digital assets is expected. That could mean more innovation and investment in Web3 gaming and growth in the space. New leadership at the SEC could also mean clearer guidelines and less uncertainty for devs and investors. As the US figures out its crypto policies, the global Web3 gaming landscape will likely shift, too, with international collaborations and market dynamics adjusting to the changes.

Editor’s note: This article was written with the assistance of AI. Edited and fact-checked by Owen Skelton.