XRP whales purchased 340 million tokens during the past two weeks, concentrating their buying activity during each correction toward $2.90 and fueling a potential rally towards $4.

According to trader Ali Martinez, the accumulation pattern occurs as XRP confronts a critical technical juncture at $2.77. The token must maintain support to prevent a retracement toward $2.40.

Success in holding this level would position XRP to challenge the $2.90 resistance, potentially triggering an upward move toward $3.70.

The coordinated accumulation suggests confidence in XRP’s ability to break through overhead resistance from investors with deep pockets.

Rebound signs amid uncertain backdrop

Beyond the whale accumulation data, Martinez highlighted that the TD Sequential indicator shows back-to-back buy signals for XRP, suggesting a rebound setup is in play.

The technical formation adds weight to the whale buying pattern, providing both fundamental and technical support for a potential upward move.

The TD Sequential, a momentum oscillator used to identify potential reversal points, typically generates buy signals when an asset becomes oversold and positioned for a bounce.

However, the bullish signs happen amid conflicting market signals for altcoin performance.

An Aug. 25 Bitfinex report identified capital rotation from Bitcoin to Ethereum and broader altcoin markets. Institutional liquidity extended along the risk curve following Bitcoin’s consolidation near all-time highs.

While Bitcoin consolidated after reaching a price peak, Ethereum led an altcoin recovery, resulting in new all-time highs above $4,950, as ETF flows and corporate treasury demand provided support.

Altcoins stagnating

Although this momentum could flow from Ethereum to other altcoins, a Sept. 1 Bitfinex Alpha report presented a more bearish near-term outlook for altcoins.

The analysis noted that altcoin market capitalization is stagnating, with movement in individual tokens representing capital rotation rather than new inflows.

XRP, Cardano (ADA), and Dogecoin (DOGE) experienced double-digit weekly losses as risk-off behavior prevailed in the broader crypto markets.

The report warned that September could mark a cyclical low point for altcoins before structural drivers reassert themselves in the fourth quarter.

Despite the mixed backdrop, whale accumulation in XRP persists during periods of price weakness. Additionally, analysts anticipate the approval of multiple altcoin ETFs in the US in October, including those for XRP.

The report added that even if the near term turns out grim, current fundamental and technical indicators suggest a rally for XRP is likely in the coming weeks.

Mentioned in this article

Bitcoin is approaching a critical juncture as its textbook ascending triangle converges with a tight trading range. Consolidation near key support and resistance levels sets the stage for a potential breakout or breakdown, making the next moves crucial for market momentum.

Ascending Triangle Signals Strength

Alpha Crypto Signal, in a recent post, highlighted that Bitcoin is currently shaping a textbook ascending triangle pattern on the daily chart — a well-recognized bullish continuation setup. The analyst explained that price action is consolidating just under the horizontal resistance zone at $122,500, while a series of higher lows continues to form along the rising trendline, signaling strong underlying demand.

Related Reading

The analyst emphasized that as long as BTC holds above the 9 EMA at $118,738 and respects the ascending triangle’s support line, the overall bias remains bullish. These levels are crucial in maintaining the pattern’s structure, and a break below them could shift sentiment in favor of the bears. The persistence of higher lows indicates that buyers are consistently stepping in, preventing significant pullbacks, as indicated on the chart.

In conclusion, Alpha Crypto Signal stated that a clean break above the $122,500 resistance, backed by strong volume, could open the door for BTC to push toward a new all-time high. Such a move is likely to confirm the ascending triangle breakout and potentially trigger the next major bullish wave in the market.

Bitcoin Stuck Between $112,592 And $123,334

In an X post, X_Crypto, after examining Bitcoin’s action in a 4-hour timeframe, revealed that the flagship asset is currently trading within a defined range between $112,592 and $123,334, as highlighted on the chart. Meanwhile, the price is hovering around $119,106, with local support at $117,445 and the nearest resistance set at $123,334.

Related Reading

The analyst noted that above the current range, $124,576 stands out as a key resistance zone. If this level is breached, the next upside target would be $127,272, which could serve as a profit-taking point in a bullish scenario. These levels will be critical in determining the strength of any upward continuation.

On the downside, X_Crypto pointed out that a break below $117,445 could open the way for a drop toward $112,592 — the lower boundary of the range and a strong support zone where buyers are likely to step in. This area, the writer stressed, will be pivotal for defending the broader bullish structure.

Lastly, indicators on the lower timeframes, as mentioned by X_Crypto, are showing local oversold conditions, hinting at a potential short-term bounce. However, the analyst cautioned that without sustained consolidation above $119,106, selling pressure could persist, limiting any meaningful upside momentum.

Featured image from Getty Images, chart from Tradingview.com

Bitcoin prices exceeded $122,286 today as large new buyers approach the market. All eyes are at Nakamoto Holdings Inc., a Bitcoin native holding company that completes a long-term merger with healthcare provider KindlyMD (NASDAQ: NAKA). Once the merger is complete, Nakamoto will be cleared to begin purchasing Bitcoin with more than $760 million in capital.

The company confirmed it had filed a definitive information statement with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission on July 22, marking its final step before closing. “Submitting a definitive information statement is a significant milestone for this merger and accelerates our mission to win 1 million Bitcoin,” said David Bailey, founder and CEO of Nakamoto. “We are extremely proud of Nakamoto and our team’s collaboration at KindlyMD to bring them one step closer to closing the merger.”

“We are proud to be able to reach this important milestone together with Nakamoto,” added Tim Pickett, founder and CEO of KindlyMD. “Our shareholders now have the opportunity to be part of a groundbreaking change in the way public companies approach financial management.

Once confirmed, the merger will allow Nakamoto to actively pursue a Bitcoin acquisition strategy. The company made its first move earlier this year when KindlyMD purchased 21 btc for $2.3 million. “The iconic number for starting the $naka mission,” Nakamoto posted on X. Pickett.

“We have a unique strategy for Nakamoto. When we see it working, we see why we become one of the top Bitcoin holders in the world,” Bailey said today. “We’re building a Bitcoin Juggernaut.”

To further strengthen its leadership, Nakamoto announced last week that it had appointed Amanda Fabiano as Chief Operating Officer. Fabiano, former mining manager at Galaxy Digital and director of Bitcoin Mining at Fidelity Investments, brings more than a decade of experience to this role. “We are excited to add Amanda to the Nakamoto team,” Bailey said. “A track record of implementation building and driving institutional infrastructure across complex organizations offers immediate value.”

Fabiano said, “I look forward to joining Nakamoto at such a crucial time in its growth. Nakamoto is turning bold ideas into real-world influences and pushing forward the frontier of institutional Bitcoin adoption.”

With the merger deadline likely to be imminent, participants in the Bitcoin market are attracting attention as Nakamoto prepares to roll out more than $760 million to BTC.

Disclosure: Nakamoto is working with BTC Inc, the parent company of Bitcoin Magazine, to build the first global network of Bitcoin Treasury Companies, where BTC Inc offers specific marketing services to Nakamoto. More details about this can be found here.

OpenAI’s ChatGPT-5 could drop in the coming days, and it could be one of the best models from the Microsoft-backed startup.

As The Verge’s Tom Warren first reported, GPT-5 is being prepared for an August release.

GPT-5 is believed to be the “unified” model, which means it combines the breakthroughs from the reasoning and multi-modal models, such as o3 and 4o respectively.

ChatGPT currently has too many capable models for different tasks. While the models are powerful, it can be confusing because all models have identical names.

OpenAI maintains an “o” lineup for reasoning capabilities, while the 4o and other models have multi-modality.

With GPT-5, OpenAI plans to unify the breakthrough in its lineup and deliver the best of the two worlds.

“We’re truly excited to not just make a net new great frontier model, we’re also going to unify our two series,” says Romain Huet, OpenAI’s Head of Developer Experience.

“The breakthrough of reasoning in the O-series and the breakthroughs in multi-modality in the GPT-series will be unified, and that will be GPT-5. And I really hope I’ll come back soon to tell you more about it.”

OpenAI previously claimed that GPT-5 will also make the existing models significantly better at everything.

“GPT-5 is our next foundational model that is meant to just make everything our models can currently do better and with less model switching,” Jerry Tworek, who is a VP at OpenAI, wrote in a Reddit post.

GPT-5 drops in the next few weeks

OpenAI might use “routing” initially, which means GPT-5 might call a reasoning model in the background when it feels the query could be best handled with “deeper thinking.”

Details of how exactly GPT-5 works are unclear, but we’ll likely learn more about it soon.

My sources tell me that GPT-5 could drop in the coming days, likely in the first week of August, but since we’re talking about OpenAI, remember that plans are always subject to change.

Microsoft is already testing internal builds of Copilot and Microsoft 365 Copilot with GPT-5.

Microsoft Azure is also preparing for GPT-5 integration.

Ethereum is approaching a critical test as price action tightens, setting the stage for a decisive move above key demand. After weeks of volatile yet controlled trading, bulls are attempting to reclaim higher ground, but momentum remains limited. At the same time, bears have repeatedly failed to drive ETH below the $2,400 level, reinforcing it as a strong support zone for now. With global markets under pressure from geopolitical tensions and macro uncertainty, Ethereum’s next move could define the direction of the broader altcoin market.

Related Reading

Top analyst M-log1 believes the ETH/BTC pair is the most important chart to monitor in the coming days. According to his view, a breakout—either to the upside or downside—will determine the fate of altcoins across the board. The setup has reached an inflection point after multiple tests of the lower support band, with bulls continuing to defend it against breakdown attempts.

This consolidation phase, combined with suppressed volatility and rising macro tension, makes Ethereum’s current structure one of the most significant technical formations in crypto right now. All eyes are now on ETH/BTC as traders prepare for what could be a defining moment in the altcoin cycle.

Ethereum Builds Pressure As Breakout Nears

Ethereum continues to trade within a narrow range that began in early May, hovering between the $2,400 and $2,800 levels. This prolonged consolidation comes at a time of growing geopolitical instability, as the conflict in the Middle East escalates and macroeconomic uncertainty grips global markets. While many investors had anticipated an altseason by now, that rotation of capital into altcoins has yet to materialize. All eyes remain on Ethereum to serve as the catalyst for that next leg higher.

M-log1 believes the ETH/BTC pair holds the most important signal in the coming days. “This is probably the most important chart you want to keep an eye on,” he stated, highlighting that whichever direction ETH/BTC breaks could determine the fate of the altcoin market.

The chart has repeatedly tested the lower support range, with bulls successfully defending that level on at least eight occasions. According to M-log1, this persistent defense suggests that bears are losing momentum, and a breakout to the upside is more likely. “I am 80/20 in favor of the upside,” he said, citing the market’s inability to break lower as a sign of underlying strength.

Related Reading

ETH Tests Weekly Moving Averages

Ethereum (ETH) is currently trading at $2,550, maintaining its position above all major weekly moving averages—50, 100, and 200. This level marks a key technical pivot as price consolidates between $2,450 and $2,680 after a strong recovery from its April low near $1,500. Despite multiple attempts to break higher, ETH continues to face resistance just below the $2,700 mark, showing that sellers remain active near historical supply zones.

Importantly, the recent weekly candles have held the 100-week and 200-week simple moving averages as support. This indicates structural strength, especially considering the broader macro uncertainty driven by Middle East tensions and tighter U.S. monetary policy. Volume remains steady, with no signs of panic selling, further supporting the idea that ETH is stabilizing.

Related Reading

The current compression in price around key moving averages typically precedes a larger directional move. A confirmed weekly close above $2,700 could open the door to a rapid push toward the psychological $3,000 level. Conversely, losing the $2,400 support would likely trigger a short-term correction back toward the 50-week SMA near $2,289.

Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView

In context: As Google users complain about the worsening quality of search results and GenAI integration, European organizations are working to plant the seeds of alternative solutions. One such initiative aims to build a public index to support new search engines and reduce Europe’s reliance on Google and Bing.

Early trials of the Open Web Index are set to begin next month. This emerging project could help European countries move away from dominant, ad-driven search engines. As US tech giants increasingly optimize search around generative AI and advertising, the OpenWebSearch.eu initiative seeks to foster nonprofit alternatives.

The Open Web Index itself is not a search engine. Rather, it functions like a digital library from which search engines can retrieve files and web pages. Major search providers rely on proprietary indexes, while smaller engines are often dependent on them. According to the Open Web project, this centralization gives companies like Google disproportionate control over the global web.

Regulators in the United Kingdom and European Union have consistently pushed back against American tech giants such as Apple and Google, particularly on issues involving search and artificial intelligence.

Meanwhile, users around the world have reported a steady decline in search quality. Website operators also argue that Google is discouraging users from leaving its ecosystem, and generative AI tools frequently struggle to deliver accurate information. Some groups believe developing Europe-based alternatives is part of the solution.

New: How AI Overviews Shift Traffic From Publishers to Google

It’s not enough that Google’s AI Overviews reduce clicks to publisher websites

Google designed these so that what few clicks remain lead to walls of irrelevant ads and/or bad search results

Link in pic.twitter.com/usrycPvTNS

– Cyrus (@CyrusShepard) May 8, 2025

To accomplish this, a 14-member consortium, including universities, data centers, tech companies, and CERN, aims to fund and build the infrastructure for a robust and publicly available web index.

Small and medium-sized companies could use it to build search engines, large language models, or other applications that don’t try to sell users ads, or at least operate independently of US giants such as Google and Bing.

The project also aims to promote applications that adhere to European regulations, values, and cultures. For example, EU-based search engines and LLMs would theoretically produce more reliable results in languages other than English. The consortium is also carefully considering how the index scrapes web content and how clicks impact search rankings.

The first open trial will be launched via a Zoom meeting on June 6, from 10 AM to noon CEST. Participants will gain access to roughly one petabyte of content. The completed Open Web Index is expected to host about five petabytes, with plans to scale to 10 petabytes in future iterations.

Amid its recent breakout, Ethereum (ETH) has recovered a crucial Range lost in Q1, preparing to surge to the mid-zone of this area. However, various analysts forecast potential volatility for the King of Altcoins, as it faces some resistance at the current levels.

Related Reading

Ethereum To Trade Sideways Before Next Jump

After surging nearly 45% in the past week, Ethereum has reclaimed its $2,200-$3,900 macro range lost in March. During the late-April market pump, the cryptocurrency recovered from its 18-month low of $1,380, jumping toward the $1,800 resistance before breaking out last Thursday.

ETH has smashed past the $2,000 resistance and regained the crucial $2,100 and $2,300 levels before retesting the $2,600 resistance over the weekend. Since then, the King of Altcoins has hovered between the $2,400-$2,600 price range, hitting a two-month high of $2,624 on Monday.

Market watcher Castillo Trading highlighted that Ethereum is “doing exactly what it should be. Taking some time to build a base at important levels before the next move.”

The analyst stated that the $2,400-$2,700 zone will likely be ETH’s trading range for the upcoming days after its retest of the range lows as support, with “some shakeouts in both directions before continuing its next leg up.”

Similarly, Daan Crypto Trades noted that the cryptocurrency’s current level is important, as it could determine its short-term direction. According to the trader, Ethereum could drop to $2,300 or below the $2,100 support level if it loses the key area. “In that case, you can simply wait for a consolidation to be formed at those levels,” he explained.

On the contrary, if ETH breaks past the $2,600 resistance, and price keeps surging, the current level may “become a nice retest of the horizontal.” Notably, the next crucial horizontal level sits around the $2,850-$2,900 range, a significant support and resistance area amid the Q3 2024 pullback and the Q4 2024 breakout.

Is A Dip Or A 15% Shakeout Coming?

Analyst Rekt Capital pointed out that Ethereum secured a key Weekly Close after closing the week at $2,514 and officially reclaiming its Macro Range. According to the analyst, history suggests that ETH will “likely lift across the Range” over time, while “any dips, if needed at all, would only solidify $2200 as Range Low support.”

He stressed that the recent Weekly Close occurred at the top of a crucial cluster, enabling a scenario where “just a small dip would suffice, if the green circled retest repeats here at ~$2468 (black).”

However, if that level is lost, ETH could see a 10%-15% pullback toward the $2,200-$2,100 mark. Rekt Capital also remarked that the second-largest crypto by market capitalization has managed to fill the $2,530-$2,630 Daily CME Gap, created in March.

Related Reading

Amid its breakout, ETH also formed two small CME Gaps at the $2,300-$2,400 and $2,100-$2,200 levels, which could be closed soon. The former is the “more important dipping area, as it is also a Weekly CME Gap.”

Additionally, he affirmed that Ethereum intends to fill its Macro CME Gap, between $2,900 and $3,350, signaling that a surge toward those levels could be ahead.

As of this writing, Ethereum trades at $2,597, a 5% increase in the daily timeframe.

Featured Image from Unsplash.com, Chart from TradingView.com

Markets seem bullish ahead of the jobs report due later Friday, with bitcoin (BTC) rising toward $97,000 after stocks rose for an eighth straight day on Thursday. That gave the S&P 500 its longest rally since August as investors grew more confident that trade tensions between Washington and Beijing are cooling.

Still, the CoinDesk 20 (CD20) index is little changed over the last 24 hours with the drop in first-quarter GDP pointing to economic strain from the trade war. While traders are now betting the Federal Reserve could cut interest-rates four times this year — one more than they’d priced in before the reciprocal tariffs were announced — personal consumption expenditures (PCE), the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation came in above forecasts, which limits the central bank’s room for easing, said James Butterfill, the head of research at CoinShares.

Today’s payrolls data remains a “critical piece of the puzzle,” he said.

“When the Fed eventually decides to cut rates, it is likely to do so in a knee-jerk and forceful manner — reacting to a significant deterioration in economic conditions rather than being proactive. Such a dramatic policy shift could act as a catalyst for a significant breakout rally in bitcoin, as investors seek alternative stores of value amid aggressive monetary easing,” Butterfill said.

That policy shift could align with bitcoin’s historical performance. Since 2013, the cryptocurrency has seen an average gain of 7.52% in May, according to CoinGlass data. And it’s not alone: ether (ETH), which has been significantly underperforming BTC, has posted an average gain of 27.3% in May since 2016, the best-performing month for the Ethereum blockchain’s token.

“Investor confidence is gradually returning to crypto markets following a volatile start to the year, with April seeing a rebound across majors as tariff-driven macro fears eased,” said Vijay Chetty, CEO of Eclipse. Growing regulatory clarity is an “underappreciated catalyst that will set the stage for broader institutional use cases,” Chetty added. Stay alert!

What to Watch

• Crypto:
  • May 5, 3 a.m.: IOTA’s Rebased network upgrade starts. Rebased moves IOTA to a new network, boosting capacity to as many as 50,000 transactions per second, offering staking rewards of 10%-15% a year and adding support for MoveVM smart contracts.
  • May 5, 11 a.m.: The Crescendo network upgrade goes live on the Kaspa (KAS) mainnet. This upgrade boosts the network’s performance by increasing the block production rate to 10 blocks per second from 1 block per second.
  • May 6: Casper Network (CSPR) launches its 2.0 mainnet upgrade, introducing faster transactions, enhanced smart contracts, and improved staking features to boost enterprise adoption.
  • May 7, 6:05 a.m.: The Pectra hard fork network upgrade will get activated on the Ethereum (ETH) mainnet at epoch 364032. Pectra combines two major components: the Prague execution layer hard fork and the Electra consensus layer upgrade.
• Macro
  • May 2, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics releases April employment data.
    • Nonfarm Payrolls Est. 130K vs. Prev. 228K
    • Unemployment Rate Est. 4.2% vs. Prev. 4.2%
  • May 2, 9 a.m.: S&P Global releases Brazil April purchasing managers’ index (PMI) data.
    • Manufacturing PMI Prev. 51.8
  • May 2, 11 a.m.: S&P Global releases Mexico April purchasing managers’ index (PMI) data.
    • Manufacturing PMI Prev. 46.5
  • May 5, 9:45 a.m.: S&P Global releases (Final) U.S. April purchasing managers’ index (PMI) data.
    • Composite PMI Est. 51.2 vs. Prev. 53.5
    • Services PMI Est. 51.4 vs. Prev. 54.4
  • May 5, 10:00 a.m.: Institute for Supply Management (ISM) releases U.S. April economic activity data.
    • Services PMI Est. 50.6 vs. Prev. 50.8
• Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
  • May 6: Cipher Mining (CIFR), pre-market, $-0.07
  • May 8: Coinbase Global (COIN), post-market, $2.08
  • May 8: Hut 8 (HUT), pre-market
  • May 8: MARA Holdings (MARA), post-market

Token Events

• Governance votes & calls
  • Compound DAO is voting on moving 35,200 COMP (~$1.5 m) into a multisig safe to test selling covered calls on COMP for USDC, lend that USDC in Compound for extra yield, then use the returns to buy back COMP and repeat—targeting roughly 15 % annual gain. Voting ends May 2.
  • May 5, 4 p.m.: Livepeer (LPT) to host a Treasury Talk session on Discord.
• Unlocks
  • May 2: Ethena (ENA) to unlock 3.10% of its circulating supply worth $53.44 million.
  • May 7: Kaspa (KAS) to unlock 0.56% of its circulating supply worth $13.84 million.
  • May 9: Movement (MOVA) to unlock 2.04% of its circulating supply worth $9.85 million.
  • May 11: Solayer (LAYER) to unlock 12.87% of its circulating supply worth $79.71 million.
  • May 12: Aptos (APT) to unlock 1.82% of its circulating supply worth $62.09 million.
• Token Launches
  • May 2: Binance to delist Alpaca Finance (ALPACA), PlayDapp (PDA), Viberate (VIB), and Wing Finance (WING).
  • May 5: Sonic (S) to be listed on Kraken.

Conferences

CoinDesk’s Consensus is taking place in Toronto on May 14-16. Use code DAYBOOK and save 15% on passes.

• May 6-7: Financial Times Digital Assets Summit (London)
• May 11-17: Canada Crypto Week (Toronto)
• May 12-13: Dubai FinTech Summit
• May 12-13: Filecoin (FIL) Developer Summit (Toronto)
• May 12-13: Latest in DeFi Research (TLDR) Conference (New York)
• May 12-14: ACI’s 9th Annual Legal, Regulatory, and Compliance Forum on Fintech & Emerging Payment Systems (New York)
• May 13: Blockchain Futurist Conference (Toronto)
• May 13: ETHWomen (Toronto)
• May 14-16: CoinDesk’s Consensus 2025 (Toronto)

Token Talk

By Shaurya Malwa

• Memecoin discussions are rising, while interest in layer-1 and layer-2 tokens is declining, signaling a shift toward speculative trading behavior, according to a Santiment report on Thursday.
• Retail investors are embracing hype-driven buying, favoring short-term gains over fundamentals.
• Market timing may be off, as historically the best altcoin entry points occur when crowd sentiment is low — not when terms like “altseason” and “bull cycle” are trending, the report said.
• Mentions of “buying crypto” have spiked, especially on dips, suggesting widespread eagerness and potentially premature confidence.
• Overconfident markets often face sharp corrections, especially when traders expect nonstop gains.
• As May begins, it remains to be seen if this altcoin surge is sustainable or simply another hype-driven blip.

Derivatives Positioning

• BTC’s current ascent appears structurally fragile, with a -$30 million liquidity delta across the 1% order book despite a 2.7% price rise since the start of the month, CoinGlass data show.
• This reduction in top-of-book liquidity as the price climbs leaves a thinner order book with an increasing the risk of slippage and volatility if momentum stalls.
• Liquidation heatmaps reveal sizable clusters at $97.6K ($67 million) and $96.1K ($58 million), reinforcing these zones as potential inflection points for intraday, volatility-driven reversals or stop-driven extensions.
• Binance funding rates show a sharp divergence in sentiment across major tokens, with APT, TON, UNI and XRP hitting +10.95% APR, while USDE (-29.73%), BNB (-19.06%), and SUI (-10.26%) reflect more intensive short-side pressure, Velo data shows.
• The concentration of elevated funding among large caps indicates directional long bias, while deeply negative rates in select altcoins suggest either event-driven shorts or systematic derisking.
• Open-interest (OI) rotation is flowing into low-cap, niche assets; with PUNDIX (+191%) and HAEDAL (+157%) leading 24-hour OI gains, according to Velo data. As open interest broadens out, market sensitivity to catalysts may increase across low to mid-cap tokens.

Market Movements

• BTC is up 2.27% from 4 p.m. ET Thursday at $96,817.27 (24hrs: +0.54%)
• ETH is up 1.48% at $1,822.64 (24hrs: -0.82%)
• CoinDesk 20 is up 1.39% at 2,781.37 (24hrs: -0.32%)
• Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is down 9 bps at 2.958%
• BTC funding rate is at -0.0093% (-10.2251% annualized) on Binance

• DXY is down 0.51% at 99.74
• Gold is up 0.62% at $3,258.47/oz
• Silver is unchanged at $32.38/oz
• Nikkei 225 closed +1.04% at 36,830.69
• Hang Seng closed +1.74% at 22,504.68
• FTSE is up 0.75% at 8,560.68
• Euro Stoxx 50 is up 1.48% at 5,236.81
• DJIA closed on Thursday +0.21% at 40,752.96
• S&P 500 closed +0.63% at 5,604.14
• Nasdaq closed +1.52% at 17,710.74
• S&P/TSX Composite Index closed -0.19% at 24,795.55
• S&P 40 Latin America closed -0.25% at 2,523.42
• U.S. 10-year Treasury rate is up 8 bps at 4.23%
• E-mini S&P 500 futures are up 0.47% at 5,649.50
• E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are up 0.33% at 19,935.75
• E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index futures are up 0.47% at 41,045.00

Bitcoin Stats

• BTC Dominance: 64.85 (+0.16%)
• Ethereum to bitcoin ratio: 0.1886 (-1.0%)
• Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 847 EH/s
• Hashprice (spot): $49.98
• Total Fees: 5.51 BTC / $533,450.65
• CME Futures Open Interest: 141,430 BTC
• BTC priced in gold: 29.8 oz
• BTC vs gold market cap: 8.46%

Technical Analysis

• Ether has reclaimed its previous swing low, with the $1,750 level now acting as a key support zone.
• On the daily timeframe, price action is compressing between the 20- and 50-day exponential moving averages — a setup that often precedes a directional breakout.
• Assuming bitcoin remains in consolidation near its current resistance, ether has room to push higher, potentially retesting the prior range low around $2,100, which aligns with the 100-day EMA, adding further evidence for this as a target.

Crypto Equities

• Strategy (MSTR): closed on Thursday at $381.6 (+0.39%), up 1.37% at $386.82 in pre-market
• Coinbase Global (COIN): closed at $201.3 (-0.78%), up 0.56% at $202.42
• Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY): closed at $24.05 (+9.72%)
• MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $14.05 (+5.09%), down 0.14% at $14.03
• Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $7.77 (+7.32%), down 1.93% at $7.62
• Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $8.55 (+5.56%), up 0.58% at $8.60
• CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $8.67 (+6.12%), up 0.69% at $8.73
• CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $14.59 (+6.65%)
• Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $33.33 (+3.09%)
• Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $40.38 (+3.43%), up 4.95% at $42.38

ETF Flows

Spot BTC ETFs:

• Daily net flow: $422.5 million
• Cumulative net flows: $39.53 billion
• Total BTC holdings ~ 1.15 million

Spot ETH ETFs

• Daily net flows: $6.5 million
• Cumulative net flows: $2.51 billion
• Total ETH holdings ~ 3.45 million

Source: Farside Investors

Overnight Flows

Chart of the Day

• Data from BitcoinCounterFlow comparing BTC’s performance from the bottom of each of the last three cycles suggests the top isn’t in yet.
• If history is any guide, the current trajectory around day 700–800 implies we’re entering a phase that could develop into the steep rally seen in prior cycles.
• The smoother rise this time may be a reflection of the increased institutional participation in the cryptocurrency ecosystem.

While You Were Sleeping

• Movement Labs Suspends Rushi Manche Amid Coinbase Delisting, Token-Dumping Scandal (CoinDesk): Co-founder Manche was suspended after Coinbase delisted MOVE following reports that a market maker tied to Web3Port dumped over 5% of the token’s supply, triggering a crash.
• China Is Considering Trade Talks With U.S., but It Has Conditions (The New York Times): China’s Commerce Ministry said it won’t enter trade talks unless U.S. tariffs are dropped, calling their removal the only way to demonstrate sincerity and rebuild trust.
• Metaplanet Issues $25M Bonds to Buy More Bitcoin (CoinDesk): EVO FUND purchased 3.6 billion yen ($24.8 million) of zero-coupon debt from Metaplanet, which intends to buy more bitcoin after recently exceeding 5,000 BTC.
• UK’s FCA Seeks Public and Industry Views on Crypto Regulation (CoinDesk): The Financial Conduct Authority is seeking feedback on staking, lending, intermediaries and decentralized finance.
• How China Is Quietly Diversifying From US Treasuries (Financial Times): China is reallocating reserves into gold, mortgage-backed securities and assets managed in places like Hong Kong, reducing reliance on dollar-denominated assets that could be sanctioned or frozen.
• Eurozone Inflation Holds Above Target as ECB Weighs Cuts (Bloomberg): Eurozone inflation held steady at 2.2% in April, defying expectations of a slowdown, while core inflation jumped to 2.7%.

In the Ether

What you need to know

• Xiaomi announces its Android 16 Developer Preview Program for those creating apps for its upcoming upgrade.
• The preview will provide developers with the tools needed to develop their apps to sort of issues, but it’s only accepting the Xiaomi 15 and 14T Pro models.
• Google recently achieved “Platform Stability” with Android 16, meaning its on track to deliver the next major OS in Q2.

Xiaomi is in the early stages of Android 16 development, and those creating apps can get a head start, too.

The Chinese OEM announced the start of its Android 16 Developer Preview Program for early app development (via Location Tracking Hub). Similar to Google, Xiaomi is encouraging interested developers to take part in its preview program, which provides all the tools they will need to “improve the compatibility” and develop their Android 16-supported apps. Interested parties are restricted to a pair of phones to start.

Xiaomi states its developer preview is accepting the Xiaomi 15 and the 14T Pro.

The announcement post states developers can get started in one of two ways: a local update or a fastboot update. For the former, devs must ensure their Xiaomi 15 is running OS2.0.109.0.VOCMIXM or higher. Owners of a 14T Pro need to have installed OS2.0.103.0.VNNMIXM or higher. The company has provided a complete guide on “how to” get started with the developer preview.

Xiaomi’s post didn’t tease any new features, so it’s unclear if developers can expect to see anything new before a more public beta for users drops.

An Early Android 16

We’re nearing the full release of a much earlier Android OS upgrade from Google as Android 16 reached “Platform Stability.” The update in late March marked a major milestone for the next software update as Google progresses with a rapid timeline for the future of Android. Platform Stability means all in-app behaviors have been finalized, and developers are given one last call for final changes to their apps.

April will hold any last-minute adjustments from Google and developers before it drops in users’ hands. Google said, “We’re putting additional energy into working with our device partners to bring the Q2 release to as many devices as possible.” Android 16 is expected to launch by the end of June.

So, it’s no surprise that Xiaomi is getting started on a developer preview of its own while it toils away at its HyperOS Android 16-skin.

Other OEMs have also started working on their Android 16 versions, like OnePlus and its flagship 13 model. Consumers with that device are getting their first glimpse of Android 16 as the company prepares for a rapid launch.