For most of this cycle, global liquidity is one of the most accurate indicators for predicting Bitcoin price action. The relationship between expanding money supply and growing risk assets is well established, and Bitcoin follows its script very closely. But recently we have been paying close attention to a few other data points that are statistically even more accurate when predicting where Bitcoin is heading next. Together, these metrics help to draw more clearly whether the recent stagnation in Bitcoin represents a short-term pause or the beginning of a long integration phase.

Bitcoin price trends driven by a global liquidity shift

Relationships between Global liquidity, especially M2 money supply, and Bitcoin prices It’s hard to ignore. As liquidity increases, Bitcoin tends to gather. Bitcoin will have a hard time with contracts.

The correlation measured for this current cycle is an impressive 88.44%. Adding a 70-day offset will result in a higher correlation of 91.23%. This means that changes in liquidity often precedes the movement of Bitcoin. The framework has proven to be extremely accurate in capturing a wide range of trends, with cycle dips lined up to tightening global liquidity and subsequent recovery reflecting updated expansions.

Still, there has been a noticeable divergence recently. Liquidity continues to rise, sending signals of support for the rise in Bitcoin prices, but Bitcoin itself has stagnated after creating a record high. This difference is worth monitoring, but it does not override the broader relationship. In fact, it may suggest that Bitcoin simply lags behind liquidity conditions, as it did at other points in the cycle.

Stablecoin Supply Signaling Bitcoin Market Surge

While global liquidity reflects the broader macro environment, Stablecoin Supply offers a more direct view of capital ready to enter digital assets. When USDT, USDC and other stub coins are minted in large quantities, this represents “dry powder” waiting to spin into Bitcoin, and ultimately represents a more speculative altcoin. Surprisingly, the correlation here is even stronger than M2 at 95.24% without offset. All major inflows of Stablecoin liquidity preceded or accompanied by the surge in Bitcoin prices.

What makes this metric powerful is its peculiarity. Unlike global liquidity covering the entire financial system, Stablecoin’s growth comes from a cryptographic origin. This represents the direct potential demand within this market. But again, we see divergence. Stablecoin Supply is expanding aggressively, creating new highs and Bitcoin is integrated. Historically, this divergence does not last long. This is because this capital will eventually flow into risk assets in search of returns. Whether this is an imminent inverted or suggests slow rotation is still unknown, but the strength of the correlation becomes one of the most important metrics to track in the short to medium term.

Bitcoin prediction power of gold’s high correlation delays

At first glance, Bitcoin and Gold do not share a consistently strong correlation. Their relationships are choppy, sometimes they move together, sometimes they branch out. However, applying the same 10-week delay will give you a clearer image when applied to global liquidity data. Over this cycle, gold with a 70-day offset shows a 92.42% correlation with Bitcoin, which is higher than the global M2 itself.

The alignment is impressive. Both assets have bottomed out at about the same time, but their major gatherings and integration have since followed a similar trajectory. Recently, gold has been trapped in a long-term integration phase, and Bitcoin appears to reflect this in its own choppy behavior. If this correlation holds, Bitcoin could remain bound to range until at least mid-November, reflecting stagnant behavior in gold. But now Gold is technically strong and ready to go for the highest ever high, so once the “digital gold” story is reasserted, Bitcoin could soon follow.

Bitcoin’s next move is predicted by key market metrics

To sum up, these three metrics, global liquidity, Stablecoin Supply, and Gold, provide a powerful framework for predicting the next move in Bitcoin. Global M2 remains a reliable macro anchor, especially with a delay of 10 weeks. Stablecoin’s growth provides the clearest and most direct signal of incoming crypto demand, suggesting that its accelerated expansion will increase pressure on higher prices. Meanwhile, Gold’s delay correlation refers to the period of integration before potential breakouts in the coming weeks, providing a surprising but valuable predictive lens.

In the short term, this confluence of signals suggests that Bitcoin continues to sculpt sideways, reflecting gold stagnation as liquidity increases in the background. However, if gold breaks into new highs and Stablecoin continues to be issued at its current pace, Bitcoin could be set up for a strong year-end gathering. For now, perseverance is important, but the data suggests that conditions based on Bitcoin’s long-term trajectory are preferred.

Have you noticed the dynamics of Bitcoin’s price in this deep dive? For more expert market insights and analysis, subscribe to Bitcoin Magazine Pro on YouTube!

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Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making an investment decision.

According to Gert Van Lagen, XRP’s macro structure has finally done one thing that is necessary. Break and hold the base neckline for seven years. “XRP (2W) – Ripple is ready to rip. A 7-year double bottom is broken. His chart is drawn on a logarithmic scale with a two-week candle, framing the movement as a multi-cycle inversion rather than a short-term pop.

Can XRP really hit $34?

Geometry is clear on the chart. The wide W-shaped base extending from the 2018-2024 Bear Market has been carved with twin rows carved into the $0.20-$0.30 region, returning to the horizontal neckline just above the $2 handle. Van Lagen marks his first breakout attempt with the Red Cross beyond that barrier, followed by a decisive surge and pullback tagging support around a $2-double area annotated by blue dots. In the log chart, the textbook breakout-retest sequence is usually the confirmation step that the technician normally looks for before projecting the target.

The price at the time of the snapshot is labeled $3.19 on the right axis. So, the XRP is traded above the neckline, but below the 2018 record high, it’s $3.40. Previous macrocaps now serve as support, so their placement is important. Stay north at about $2.00, the double bottom paper continues. The measured arrows drawn from the neckline replicate the height of the base on a multiplicative (log) basis. So, rather than adding a few dollars, an upward extension jumps into the mid-double digits.

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Van Lagen’s original purpose is explicitly derived from Fibonacci’s proportions. He sets the double bottom 2.00 expansion as his initial target and lands at “near $34”. On his scale, the projected pass surpasses the $27 and $20 gridlines, with a short tag on the $30 midterm before the average revert. This coincides with how log scale extensions are translated when long integrations are released quickly.

The left side of the graphics provides historical rhymes that readers want to notice. Between 2014 and 2017, XRP built small double bottoms within the shady accumulation zone, breaking the neckline, retesting, and accelerated vertically. Vanlagen marks the sequence at the same Red Cross and blue dots at retest on breakout, plus a vertical measurement arrow indicating how the previous base was resolved. The current pattern, covered over 2018-2025, repeats its choreography on a much larger scale.

His sketches include a roadmap of time and price using 12 forward candles (2-week bars) that mimic arcs of 5-6 months across movements when echoing the previous cycle. The first Projection Bar Vault XRP is over $11. After three candles, the blue pass exceeds $36, about six weeks after running.

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The fourth candle follows a deep retracement towards the $11 region, followed by a sharp recovery of over $30 in the fifth. The next three candles will stabilize around the $30 area before the pass lowers another slide to ~$11 and begins the start of the cooling phase. Sequences are descriptive rather than normative, but they visually lock augmented mathematics into the possibilities of market behavior.

Whether XRP can follow a steep path sketched in blue is a separate question from whether the double bottom has been technically activated. Van Lagen’s chart answers second yes. The breakout and retest sequence has been completed. First Answer – ~$34 Delivered towards FIB Expansion – Determines by what the next two weeks candles will look like.

At the time of press, the XRP traded for $3.14.

Featured images created with dall.e, charts on tradingview.com

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Julia Smith

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Julia Smith

About Author

Julia is an experienced editor with a passion for covering a wide variety of beats. She loves all things politics and regularly covers regulatory updates on emerging technology here for Crypto News.

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July 21, 2025

The majority of Polymarket bettors are predicting that Bitcoin will hit at least $125,000 in value this month, a new poll on the decentralized prediction market shows.

Polymarket Bettors Back $125K Bitcoin Threshold

According to the poll, 34% of Polymarket bettors believe that Bitcoin will cross the $125,000 threshold by the end of July.

In contrast, just 11% of the poll’s participating bettors predict that the cryptocurrency will rally above $130,000 this month.

Meanwhile, just 3% and 1% of the decentralized prediction market’s bettors believe that Bitcoin will cross the $140,000 and $150,000 marks, respectively.

Crypto Legislation Comes Into Focus for Policy Proponents

News of the Polymarket users’ predictions comes just one week after Bitcoin reached its all-time high of over $123,000 during a pivotal moment for crypto legislation in the United States.

On Friday, U.S. President Donald Trump signed the Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for U.S. Stablecoins (GENIUS) Act into law during an afternoon bill signing at the White House.

“Let me say, the entire crypto community, for years you were mocked and dismissed and counted out,” Trump said. “You were counted out as little as a year and a half ago—but this signing is a massive validation.”

Republican Party officials dubbed the push ‘Crypto Week,’ and the House of Representatives was also able to advance the CLARITY Act and the Anti-CBDC Act despite a failed procedural vote on July 15.

Truth Social Bolsters Bitcoin Treasury Holdings

Truth Social parent organization, Trump Media and Technology Group Corp, announced on July 21 that the company had amassed over $2 billion in purchases in its Bitcoin Treasury, potentially bolstering bullish attitudes toward the cryptocurrency.

“These assets help ensure our Company’s financial freedom, help protect us against discrimination by financial institutions, and will create synergies with the utility token we’re planning to introduce across the Truth Social ecosphere,” Trump Media’s CEO and President Devin Nunes said.

As of Monday afternoon, Bitcoin is hovering around $116,000.

Leading analysts at Bloomberg ETF, Eric Bartunas and James Seyfert believe that the approved U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) odds for the Spot Exchange Commission (ETF) for Solana, Litecoin and XRP have skyrocketed to an unprecedented 95% in 2025.

Could this be a transformational moment for altcoins and open a flood for institutional and retail investors seeking regulated exposure beyond Big 2 Bitcoin and Ethereum?

On June 30, 2025, Seyffart took him to X and said the duo was hoping for a “new wave of ETFs in the second half of 2025.”

The first US Solana Staking ETF will be released tomorrow, June 2, 2025. In particular, decisions for over 70 Crypto ETFs remained behind.

With the exception of CFTC-approved futures, we are trying to figure out what can enter the SEC framework, except we have looked into some potential data points. In this link for Bloomberg Terminal Client you can see the whole note and our midlife outlook: https://t.co/7c0bo3oei3 pic.twitter.com/y9cccdnagf

– James Seyfert (@jseyff) June 30, 2025

Explore: Top Solanamime Coins to buy in July 2025

“The SEC is preparing for a wave of new crypto ETFs,” a Bloomberg analyst said.

Balchunas and Seyffart’s optimism is rooted in changing regulatory attitudes and increasing market maturity. A June 1, 2025 analysis shared by X suggests that the SEC is preparing for a “new wave of cryptographic ETFs” in the second half of 2025.

On July 1, 2025, Balchunas went to X and said “.”Tuttle (Capital Management) submitted an amendment on July 16th to change the effective date of a doubled bundle of Crypto/Meme ETFs. It doesn’t mean they will start up, but usually effective dates are the same as when the ETF is started up. $ ssk Go to MKT and you’ll see others pushing. We see THO. ”

Tuttle has submitted an amendment that will change the effective date for the double Crypto/Meme ETF bundle to July 16th. It doesn’t mean they will start up, but usually effective dates are the same as when the ETF is started up. $ ssk Go to MKT and you’ll see others pushing. We meet tho. pic.twitter.com/ioskgid6gg

– Eric Balchunas (@ericbalchunas) July 1, 2025

Furthermore, he turned his attention to the related multi-layered controversy, he said, “Rex Solana ETF $ ssk (the launch of TMRW) sparked the Polymerk controversy. In the comments, the comments are angry. Polymarket had to weigh it and say it was important. ”

Rex Solana ETF $ ssk (the launch of TMRW) sparked the Polymerk controversy. In the comments, the comments are angry. Polymarket had to weigh it and say it was important. pic.twitter.com/cfrsf52fjz

– Eric Balchunas (@ericbalchunas) July 1, 2025

Explore: 9+ Best High Risk, High Release Crypto Buy in July 2025

Crypto ETF attracts net inflows of $3.69 billion

Investors poured a whopping $3.69 billion in net inflow into crypto ETFs. Importantly, this marks the first month of positive net inflows in 2025.

Additionally, cumulative net inflows for 2025 reached $5.99 billion by the end of April, marking the second highest record. The figure follows a record $42.333 billion, more than the 2024 record $2.69 billion.

There are 304 cryptographic ETPs with a global list of 756. Interestingly, April alone has introduced 23 new digital assets ETPs.

Global assets (AUM) under the control of Crypto ETFS were $1462.7 billion at the end of April. This was the fourth highest level ever. This is just below the SE’s all-time high of $1709.4 billion in January 2025.

Despite the new capital inflow, Crypto ETF AUM fell 3.8% from $1521 billion at the end of December 2024.

Explore: Top 20 Cryptos to Buy in July 2025

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Sina—co-founder of the hedge fund 21st Capital—publicly dismantled a popular Bitcoin price model promoted by Real Vision CEO Raoul Pal, calling it a textbook case of data illiteracy and overfitting.

The model in question draws a close correlation between Bitcoin and Global M2—a measure of global money supply—by shifting M2 data forward by a set number of weeks, typically 10 to 12, to supposedly “predict” Bitcoin’s future price moves. Raoul Pal has used this chart to argue that macro liquidity conditions drive crypto cycles, and that the current market behavior can be forecast using monetary expansion.

Expert Torches M2-Bitcoin Correlation

But Sina, a trained data scientist who teaches data analytics at the undergraduate and graduate level, says this model collapses under scrutiny. “This is a terrible failure of not understanding overfitting,” he said in a June 24 video posted to X. “What I’m seeing doesn’t even pass the first month of a first-year data analytics course.”

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Sina points out that the apparent correlation between Bitcoin and Global M2 only exists because the data has been “tortured” to fit historical patterns. “If I’m allowed to play with the data and arbitrarily move things around, I can definitely find great matches between pockets of data,” he said, warning that this flexibility is exactly what allows analysts to create the illusion of predictive accuracy.

The primary issue, he explained, is that the Global M2 data itself is inherently flawed. It’s compiled by multiplying various central banks’ M2 figures by exchange rates—mixing fast-reporting economies like the US with countries that have data delays of weeks or even months. This creates a misleading impression of daily fluctuations in global liquidity. “It seems to be moving on a daily basis, but it’s actually mixing frequent and infrequent updates,” Sina said. “It’s not a true signal.”

More importantly, Sina argues that the model fails the moment one zooms out from selective chart slices. While Raoul Pal and others have showcased examples of tightly aligned tops and bottoms between Bitcoin and Global M2, Sina demonstrated how minor tweaks in lead time or scale can yield dramatically different outcomes. “Let’s try a lead of 80 days. That doesn’t look good. What about 108? Ah, now the tops align—so let’s zoom in again and pretend it works,” he said sarcastically. “This is not modeling. This is playing.”

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He highlighted how each adjustment to the model—shifting from a 12-week lead to 10 weeks, to 108 days—exposes its lack of systematic foundation. “If you don’t have a proper model, you fail to predict the future,” Sina said. “This is classic overfitting. You force the data to match historical behavior, but you lose any generalizability.”

To illustrate the concept, Sina compared it to fitting a curve through a noisy sine wave. A well-structured model captures the core pattern and ignores noise. An overfit model, by contrast, attempts to match every small fluctuation—resulting in poor predictive performance when new data arrives. “Overfitting looks better, but it models noise. And noise doesn’t repeat,” he said.

Sina also questioned whether Bitcoin might actually lead liquidity, not follow it. “If you look at the last cycle, Bitcoin topped first. Liquidity topped 145 days later,” he said. This reverses the causality implied by the Global M2 model and calls into question its entire premise as a forward-looking tool.

His conclusion was blunt: “You have to be very careful with overfitting. It looks matching, but it’s forcibly fit on historical data. You have no idea about the predictive accuracy of this thing.”

At press time, Bitcoin traded at $106,952.

Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

Ethereum price action over the last 24 hours It is characterized by falling Heading towards $2,100 before rebounding very quickly. Ethereum prices have fallen to $2,130 in the last 24 hours at Crypto Exchange Coinbase amid a wider decline in the crypto industry. It’s a very short time, below $100,000.

Despite a sudden Ethereum price adjustment, analysts offered Discussions suggesting strong Ethereum gatherings Once this current economic recession is complete. In particular, they Projections are not short-term, One of them will make Ethereum’s next major target at about $6,000.

Shake the perfect, but flaws before the rally

First detailed analysis It came from @CryptOwavev, a trader who uses Elliott Wave Theory to predict market structure. According to his recent post, Ethereum prices have now completed what he considers to be a wave of greater corrective structures. His chart shows Ethereum collapses from around $2,900 and falls almost directly into the Fibonacci-based support zone, between $2,134 and $1,957.

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With the Wave A pattern now complete, the prediction is a short-term bounce up to $2,792 as part of the Wave B retracement. However, this upward movement is temporary before another wave’s C-leg is downward, allowing the price of Ethereum to be increased to $1,706 before a meaningful bottom is confirmed.

This level is what analysts call his “ideal buying zone” for long-term accumulation. The short-term view includes price crashes; A complete bullish impulse resumes Once this correction stage is complete.

The Wyckoff structure refers to the ETH price of $6,000

Merlin, popular analyst at X; We shared a contrasting convergence perspective. In this case, the analyst’s outlook is based on Wyckoff’s accumulation framework. Merlijn said, “Ethereum: Wyckoff Go says.”

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According to the daily price charts that followed his analysis, the analysts showed that the cipher had already completed the spring and testing phase. According to the Wyckoff method, the next one comes in the markup phase.

The charts posted by Merlijn are consistent with this outlook. The chart projected it Ethereum regains a A horizontal range of $2,150 to $2,450 followed by a steady progression of over $3,850, followed by another strong move above $4,800, which ultimately peaked at around $6,800 to $7,000. This bullish setup has been suggested a recent decline to $2,100 It may have shaking my confidenceit may have served a greater structural purpose. The spring and test pattern means the final shakeout of the weak hands, meaning that long-term buyers will clear the path to intervention.

Finally, the outlook from both analysts has converged on a 6-month-to-1 year trajectory, with Ethereum splitting into the $6,000 range. At the time of writing, Ethereum has traded at $2,420, up 7.4% over the past 24 hours.

Getty Images Featured Images, Charts on tradingView.com

That’s what Bitcoin’s recent price activity was As global uncertainty persists, it is characterized by a sharp swingespecially following the escalation of tension. Between Israel and Iran. After plunging in nearly 5% amid geopolitical tensions, Bitcoin managed to recover, bounced over $105,000, and is currently trading around $106,800.

The last 24 hours have been highlighted by Bitcoin recovery Again towards $108,000, However, escalating tensions in the Middle East make it more likely that they will crash quickly. This is in line with the outlook of crypto analysts who pointed out that Bitcoin could crash to $100,000.

Resistance band faces tests for bitcoin

According to Crypto analysts, TradingView platform Pejman_zwin, Bitcoin Hovering within the merging of resistance A short liquidation zone between $105,330 and $107,120. He notes that this range is not only a structural resistance zone, but also corresponds to accumulation short liquidation leverage areas.

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Essentially, this means that if this zone is challenged or broken, it is likely that price volatility will be enhanced. The chart also reveals that there is a possibility of a triangle pattern of contracts. This is a bearish continuation setup In the context of a larger revision.

According to analysts, if Bitcoin fails to make a compelling recovery of $106,600, the structure could shift from the triangle of correction to a urge five waves down. This causes a deeper retracement, especially since prices already form lower highs within the triangle. So the longer this resistance Bitcoin stays in range without breakout, the more likely it is to move rapidly downward.

Bearish and Bull Targets

If Bitcoin confirmed this breakdown, analysts looked at the first major targets around the lower boundary of the support zone, between $105,330 and $103,162. This zone is strengthened by monthly pivot points and overlaps with cumulative long clearing leverage regions. The 1-hour Candlestick Timeframe chart further highlighted a potential short setup from a reversal zone of nearly $107,100 and a forecast target of nearly $104,300.

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Additionally, the downside could reduce to $101,000 to the next support band, around $102,600 if liquidation pressure persists. Meanwhile, Payman pointed out that a sustained breakout above the $107,120 resistance line could launch a bullish reversal and push Bitcoin back towards a heavy resistance cluster above $108,000. Strong daily closures exceeding $108,000 You can cancel the bearish outlook. However, if it doesn’t break here, it could lead to rejection and another negative side movement.

Bitcoin is like that It began to show signs of bullishness, That price action remains vulnerable to rapid pullbacks, especially when tensions in the Middle East continue to unfold. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $106,638, a 0.02% decrease over the past 24 hours. This calm price action illustrates the current nature of integration.

Pixabay featured images, charts on tradingView.com

Bitcoin is Showing signs of fatigue After reaching a new all-time high of $111,814 on May 22nd. Since then, Bitcoin has made several failed attempts beyond this level, which has led to an increase in bear pressure.

Over the past few days, price action has begun to form a series of highs over a four-hour time frame. This is based on technical analysis of the TradingView platform. Bullish momentum could be losing steam.

Resistance is rejected again and there is a double top risk

Analyst Behind the TradingView post It highlighted a clear pattern of rejection near the $111,000-$112,000 zone. I’ve been testing Bitcoin repeatedly since last week, but I couldn’t get through it. This repetitive failure says that bullish momentum is waning quickly, especially as retail buyers are now. I’m a bit hesitant to buy in this zone.

Related Reading: Today’s Crypto Market: See 5 Bullish Catalysts That Bitcoin Prices are Rising

According to chart analysis, current price movements are beginning to resemble classic double-top structures. Bullish control to bearish domination. Given the weakening of follow-throughs for each upward attempt, this setup could be an early signal of a more important market reversal in the coming days.

With this in mind, analysts explain this outlook in a zigzag pass projected onto the time frame chart of a four-hour candle scaffold, predicting that another rejection from the resistance band could trigger a cascading move. Additionally, these multiple rejections will weaken roughly $105,000 in support at the same time, making this level ready to go anytime soon.

Bitcoin could drop to a $102,000 support zone

If this expected Zigzag Path is played, Bitcoin prices could drop in the coming days, heading towards a support area between $101,000 and $102,000. This zone will focus as it served as a strong level of support between May 14th and May 19th. Bitcoin eventually stepped around this level and staged a rebound that pushed it to a record high of $111,900, which it finally reached May 22nd.

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That’s what the story of Bloomer Market is like It’s still dominant in the long runcurrent price action has turned the market’s short-term tone bearish. This analysis addresses that possibility and allows Bitcoin to revisit $101,000 to $102,000 before another leg goes up.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin has dropped by 2.5% over the past 24 hours, trading at $105,272. Support level of $106,800 It has already given way, and is now focused on over $105,000. If Bitcoin does not exceed $105,000 in upcoming trading sessions, it could lead to a slump in the cascade towards $101,000 over the weekend.

Getty Images Featured Images, Charts on tradingView.com