Prediction market Polymarket is pursuing new funding that could boost its valuation to $10 billion, as Business Insider reported on Sept. 12.

Two people with knowledge of the matter said the valuation discussions represent at least a threefold increase from the $1 billion Polymarket achieved in a funding round that closed this summer.

According to one source, at least one investor offered a term sheet valuing the company at $10 billion. A Polymarket spokesperson declined to comment on the funding talks.

Strategic developments

The reported valuation surge follows a series of strategic developments positioning Polymarket for a US comeback.

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission granted regulatory approval for the platform to resume US operations through a no-action letter issued Sept. 3 to QCX LLC, Polymarket’s regulatory partner, acquired for $112 million in July.

The regulatory greenlight enables Polymarket to operate event contracts while maintaining compliance with federal derivatives regulations. It also marks a return after the platform ceased US operations in 2022 following a $1.4 million CFTC settlement over unregistered derivatives trading.

Additionally, Donald Trump Jr. joined Polymarket’s advisory board in August as his venture capital firm 1789 Capital made a strategic investment in the platform.

The partnership adds political expertise as Polymarket prepares for US market entry. Trump Jr. recently praised the platform for cutting through “media spin and so-called expert opinion.”

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Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan characterized the 1789 Capital partnership as reinforcing the company’s role as a trusted information source, while the firm’s founder, Omeed Malik, praised Polymarket’s intersection of financial innovation and free expression.

Slump in user growth

Polymarket operates as a prediction market where users place bets on outcomes ranging from political elections to cultural events, generating market-driven predictions.

Data from a Dune dashboard by Varrock founder Richard Chen shows that Polymarket crossed $8.5 billion in year-to-date trading volume as of Sept. 12, surpassing last year’s total volume.

The trading volume increase occurs despite a slump in active and new users. Polymarket’s monthly active traders peaked in January at 454,664, gradually falling to reach August’s 226,442 after a 20% fall from July.

Meanwhile, new users plunged 33% between July and August, reaching 66,160, the lowest level in a year.

The platform’s regulatory preparations and high-profile advisory additions position it for a potential pivot in these numbers with a US expansion.

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Prediction market Polymarket is pursuing new funding that could boost its valuation to $10 billion, as Business Insider reported on Sept. 12.

Two people with knowledge of the matter said the valuation discussions represent at least a threefold increase from the $1 billion Polymarket achieved in a funding round that closed this summer.

According to one source, at least one investor offered a term sheet valuing the company at $10 billion. A Polymarket spokesperson declined to comment on the funding talks.

Strategic developments

The reported valuation surge follows a series of strategic developments positioning Polymarket for a US comeback.

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission granted regulatory approval for the platform to resume US operations through a no-action letter issued Sept. 3 to QCX LLC, Polymarket’s regulatory partner, acquired for $112 million in July.

The regulatory greenlight enables Polymarket to operate event contracts while maintaining compliance with federal derivatives regulations. It also marks a return after the platform ceased US operations in 2022 following a $1.4 million CFTC settlement over unregistered derivatives trading.

Additionally, Donald Trump Jr. joined Polymarket’s advisory board in August as his venture capital firm 1789 Capital made a strategic investment in the platform.

The partnership adds political expertise as Polymarket prepares for US market entry. Trump Jr. recently praised the platform for cutting through “media spin and so-called expert opinion.”

3 Seconds Now. Gains That Compound for Years.

Act fast to join the 5-day Crypto Investor Blueprint and avoid the mistakes most investors make.

Brought to you by CryptoSlate

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Please add [email protected] to your email whitelist.

Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan characterized the 1789 Capital partnership as reinforcing the company’s role as a trusted information source, while the firm’s founder, Omeed Malik, praised Polymarket’s intersection of financial innovation and free expression.

Slump in user growth

Polymarket operates as a prediction market where users place bets on outcomes ranging from political elections to cultural events, generating market-driven predictions.

Data from a Dune dashboard by Varrock founder Richard Chen shows that Polymarket crossed $8.5 billion in year-to-date trading volume as of Sept. 12, surpassing last year’s total volume.

The trading volume increase occurs despite a slump in active and new users. Polymarket’s monthly active traders peaked in January at 454,664, gradually falling to reach August’s 226,442 after a 20% fall from July.

Meanwhile, new users plunged 33% between July and August, reaching 66,160, the lowest level in a year.

The platform’s regulatory preparations and high-profile advisory additions position it for a potential pivot in these numbers with a US expansion.

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Polymarket contracts price less than a 1% chance that President Donald Trump will resign today, as traders position into a 2 P.M. ET Oval Office announcement reported by multiple outlets citing a White House advisory.

The Oval Office announced the planned appearance, though the topic was not disclosed. According to his schedule, Trump spent Labor Day golfing with no public appearances, and his day ended at 5:39 P.M. ET.

Trading around Trump’s tenure and health has drawn sizable volume. As of early afternoon on Sept. 2, a same-day “resign today” market on Polymarket showed <1% odds with roughly $1 million traded, based on live market boards shared with CryptoSlate.

Broader timeframes price low single-digit probabilities: the year-end contract “Will Trump resign in 2025?” traded near 6%, while “Trump removed via 25th Amendment in 2025?” sat near 7%.

Amid a near-record low approval rate of 44% and a -7.6% net approval, a separate contract resolves on Trump’s polling floor, “How low will Trump’s approval rating go in 2025?,” priced a 40% approval or lower outcome at about 19%, with resolution tied to Nate Silver’s Silver Bulletin aggregator.

Market rules frame why odds cluster at the low end.

The resignation market pays out on an announcement alone by Dec. 31, 2025, irrespective of the effective date, per Polymarket’s rule set for the 2025 resignation contract.

Removal via the 25th requires a successful Section 4 process, meaning a Cabinet determination sustained by two-thirds of both chambers, per the 25th Amendment market. The approval market resolves to the green trend line published by Silver Bulletin.

Trading flurry follows online speculation about Trump’s health.

The White House disclosed on July 17 that the president was diagnosed with chronic venous insufficiency after leg swelling, with testing ruling out deep-vein thrombosis and cardiac issues, per an official physician memorandum posted by The White House.

Viral claims that Trump has “six to eight months to live” have been surfacing online based on “internet doctors’” assessment of the bruises on his hands. However, on Monday, Trump was reportedly photographed golfing near Washington, D.C., which added a fresh data point against “missing from public view” narratives, as People reported from the press pool.

In odd timing (for those indulging in conspiracy theory), VP J.D. Vance recently asserted that he is ready to be President should anything happen to Trump. Some have also claimed the images of Trump from this weekend are either a lookalike, fake, old, or show the president in very frail shape.

By 2 P.M. today, much of the social media weekend Zeitgeist will be solved, and millions will be paid out to those betting on the outcome via crypto’s always-present Polymarket prediction markets.

Rumor-driven markets can move fast, then mean-revert when new reporting lands. Today’s setup centers on the Oval Office announcement window and whether it alters the information environment that underpins these contracts.

Until that catalyst arrives, Polymarket’s same-day resignation line remains priced as a tail event, and the year-end resignation and removal contracts trade in the single digits.

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Polymarket traders are pricing low probabilities on several notable phrases being spoken during President Donald Trump’s joint news conference with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Anchorage today, even as volumes on the event’s prediction markets reach six figures.

The markets, which resolve on whether Trump uses specific words or phrases during the appearance, have drawn a combined volume of nearly $200,000 across multiple terms.

Per Polymarket data, the contract on whether Trump will say “Russia” or “Ukraine” at least 15 times carries a 79% implied probability, with about $15,300 traded. “Ceasefire” three or more times is at 72% on $11,334 volume. Other terms with higher probabilities include “Zelensky” at 88% ($37,780) and “BRICS” or “NATO” two or more times at 68% ($11,487). Markets for “secondary tariff” or “sanction” carry a 69% chance, while “Steve” or “Witkoff” is priced at 65%.

In contrast, some phrases are priced with sharply lower odds. “Crypto” or “Bitcoin” has attracted over $51,700 in volume yet holds just a 3% chance of being spoken. “Hell” three or more times is at 28%, “President Xi” sits at 27%, and several terms such as “Kyiv,” “Crimea,” “Biden,” and “Rare Earth” are clustered near the 40–50% range.

All markets resolve based on the official video or audio of the August 15 event, with any usage, including plural or possessive forms, counting toward settlement.

A separate Polymarket contract speculates on the length of the leaders’ handshake, drawing over $180,000 in total volume. The most traded outcome is a duration of 10 seconds or longer, at 24% with $56,092 volume, followed by 4–6 seconds at 27% and 2–4 seconds at 20%. The least probable outcome is under two seconds at just 4%.

The Alaska summit marks the first in-person Trump–Putin meeting since 2019 and the first U.S.-hosted bilateral meeting with a Russian leader since 2007.

As the Washington Post reported, the talks come without Ukrainian participation, a decision that has drawn objections from Kyiv and European allies. Per the Guardian, the Kremlin is expected to bring economic proposals alongside territorial demands related to the war in Ukraine.

Polymarket, which allows users to trade on crypto event outcomes, has become a closely watched barometer for sentiment around political and geopolitical events. The platform previously hosted a market on whether the summit would take place at all, which saw nearly $3 million in total wagers before resolving “Yes” with the meeting’s confirmation. Market prices shift dynamically as traders buy and sell shares in “Yes” or “No” outcomes, reflecting the crowd’s real-time assessment of probabilities.

The event’s timing has drawn interest from traders monitoring potential impacts on energy and macro markets. As MarketWatch noted, oil futures could react to any perceived breakthrough or breakdown in talks, with possible price swings of several dollars per barrel.

Bitcoin and Ethereum, which move in response to macro and geopolitical developments, may also be influenced by post-summit sentiment, though the dedicated “Crypto/Bitcoin” term market implies traders do not expect the asset class to feature in Trump’s public remarks.

Trump is scheduled to hold the joint news conference following his one-on-one meeting with Putin at Joint Base Elmendorf–Richardson. The markets on Polymarket will close once the event concludes and recorded evidence confirms the results, with any absence of a public appearance by August 16 triggering a “No” resolution across all contracts.

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A routine $10,000 prediction market on Polymarket covering Sunday’s NASCAR Cup Series race erupted into a dispute in UMA’s history after the oracle rejected an early settlement proposal, despite it being accurate. 

As reported by the X user known as Domer on July 24, the clash has revived questions about how UMA’s optimistic‑oracle process balances speed, clarity, and fairness.

How a $10k market became a $60k fight

When the checkered flag fell at 6:58 p.m. ET, Denny Hamlin crossed the line first and was later confirmed as the winner following NASCAR’s post‑race inspection. 

One minute after the finish, a veteran Polymarket trader, known as “GeopoliticsWizard,” posted 40 settlement proposals to UMA, one for each driver contract, paying the required 750 USDC bond on each. 

Ninety minutes later, other users challenged every proposal, arguing the submitter had not waited for inspection. Under UMA’s rules, each dispute also required a 750 USDC bond.

With 40 proposals and 40 disputes, total staking ballooned to $60,000, six times the underlying market size. The ultimate split is predetermined: the winning side collects its 40 bonds ($40,000) while UMA keeps the remaining $20,000 as protocol revenue.

UMA’s published documentation does not require proposers to wait for inspections. Instead, it directs them to use an “authoritative public source.” 

NASCAR’s leaderboard showed no caveats or asterisks. Even so, on-chain voters judged the submissions “Too Early,” siding unanimously with the disputers. The vote came after NASCAR confirmed Hamlin’s win at 8:26 p.m., and disputes were lodged at 8:27 p.m.

The ruling wiped out roughly $30,000 in net value for the proposer, turning a previously profitable account into a negative one, according to posts from Domer. 

How UMA works

UMA uses a three‑step “propose–dispute–vote” loop. Anyone may submit a settlement answer with a bond. If unchallenged during a short liveness window, the answer becomes final. 

A challenger can post an equal bond to force a token‑holder vote. The majority receives the combined bonds, while the minority forfeits theirs. 

The model is designed to be fast and decentralized, yet the NASCAR case shows that costs can dwarf a market’s notional value when disputes escalate.

Earlier in July, UMA faced backlash over a $200 million Polymarket contract on whether Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky would appear in a “suit.” 

After initially ruling “Yes,” UMA reversed course following challenges about what qualifies as a suit, exposing how ambiguous wording can grind the oracle to a halt. 

Days later, a separate Major League Baseball market erroneously paid out to the wrong team. UMA stated that a technical glitch and lack of dispute caused the mistake and promised refunds.

The bigger picture

In Domer’s view, the NASCAR episode lays bare a deeper problem: UMA’s voting base has shrunk to a small circle of “trusted” regulars whose financial incentives often align with disputers, rather than with neutral accuracy. 

When Polymarket itself stays neutral, as it did here, UMA leans on these insiders for guidance, and “they comply.”

He added:

“The voting system is more centralized than ever, with a community more dormant than ever […] The group that disputed spammed the Discord heavily, so it had to be ‘Too Early’, and UMA voters did as they were told.”

Domer concluded that such dynamics turn legitimate traders into collateral damage.

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Crypto prediction market Polymarket is considering launching its own stablecoin to gain control over the interest-bearing reserves currently backing USDC deposits on its platform, CoinDesk reported, citing sources familiar with the matter.

The deliberations reflect a broader industry trend as platforms seek to internalize stablecoin-related revenue, particularly in closed ecosystems.

The source told the news outlet that Polymarket is evaluating two paths: introducing a proprietary stablecoin for internal use or entering into a revenue-sharing arrangement with Circle, the issuer of USDC.

Polymarket has not yet made a final decision, a company representative confirmed to CoinDesk.

Since Polymarket operates a closed-loop system, where users trade prediction markets using stablecoins without external payment flows, creating a native dollar-pegged token would require minimal infrastructure changes.

Users could easily convert existing USDC or USDT into the new token, keeping the liquidity and reserve yield within the platform.

The U.S. regulatory environment for stablecoins improved last week with the passage of federal legislation providing a legal framework for issuers. The development has made stablecoin issuance a more viable and appealing strategy for both crypto-native firms and traditional finance players.

Circle has reportedly been offering revenue-sharing agreements to partners such as exchanges and payment providers to maintain competitive positioning. Spokespeople for Circle did not respond to a request for comment.

Polymarket, recently valued at over $1 billion, has seen a surge in activity, including $8 billion in volume during the last U.S. election cycle and over 15 million website visits in May, according to SimilarWeb data.

The company is also preparing to expand its U.S. presence through the acquisition of QCEX, following the resolution of legal issues tied to previous U.S. user activity.

By potentially launching its own stablecoin, Polymarket would join a growing list of platforms seeking to bring value capture closer to the application layer, a shift that could redefine the economics of blockchain-based financial services.

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Traders on a decentralized platform are putting real money on Bitcoin’s path this month. According to a new Polymarket poll, 36% of bettors believe Bitcoin will top $125,000 by July 31.

Only 11% think it will clear $130,000, while just 3% and 1% back it reaching $140,000 and $150,000 respectively. As of Tuesday morning, Bitcoin hovered around $118,327, just shy of its all‑time high of $123,000 reached last week.

Polymarket Predictions Stir The Pot

Based on reports from Polymarket, the biggest chunk of wagers focuses on the $125,000 mark. That target sits about 6% above current levels, a gap many find doable given recent price swings.

Much smaller percentages are seeking more. Only 11% are putting their money on the $130,000 target. And beyond that—above $140,000—bets decline sharply, with just 3% and 1% supporting those higher amounts.

Source: Polymarket

The survey highlights cautious optimism: many believe there’s room for improvement, but few are forecasting a dramatic leap above the previous peak.

Price action supports their caution. Bitcoin’s recent climb followed a steady rise since mid‑2023, and it has spent much of July testing resistance near the $120,000 zone.

A push past $125,000 would be a fresh milestone. But if sellers step in, a pullback toward $110,000 is not out of the question.

ETHUSD trading at $3,649 on the 24-hour chart: TradingView

Doubling Down On Bitcoin

On July 21, Trump Media & Technology Group Corp. revealed it now holds more than $2 billion in Bitcoin assets. That haul makes up the bulk of its roughly $3 billion in cash and equivalents.

CEO Devin Nunes said the move secures “financial freedom” for the company and ties into a planned utility token for the Truth Social network.

Big buys like this often send ripples through the market, attracting media attention and nudging prices higher. They can also inspire other firms and funds to consider similar crypto stakes.

I just signed the landmark legislation passed today by House Republicans to strengthen American crypto innovation.

The CLARITY Act, GENIUS Act, and Anti-CBDC Surveillance State Act deliver on President Trump’s vision to make crypto a core pillar of the U.S. economy and ensure… pic.twitter.com/rnJgq3KaV2

— Speaker Mike Johnson (@SpeakerJohnson) July 17, 2025

US Stablecoin Rules Take Center Stage

A week ago, US President Donald Trump signed the Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for US Stablecoins (GENIUS) Act into law.

The bill sets clear rules for dollar‑pegged coins. It requires full backing by cash or Treasuries, regular reserve reports and know‑your‑customer checks.

Trump called the move “massive validation” for crypto users and businesses. House leaders also moved ahead on two other bills: the CLARITY Act and the Anti‑CBDC Act.

Their progress shows growing interest on Capitol Hill in shaping stablecoin policy. Clarity on rules could boost confidence in the broader crypto market, lifting sentiment for Bitcoin and beyond.

Featured image from Meta, chart from TradingView

Editorial Process for bitcoinist is centered on delivering thoroughly researched, accurate, and unbiased content. We uphold strict sourcing standards, and each page undergoes diligent review by our team of top technology experts and seasoned editors. This process ensures the integrity, relevance, and value of our content for our readers.

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Julia Smith

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Julia Smith

About Author

Julia is an experienced editor with a passion for covering a wide variety of beats. She loves all things politics and regularly covers regulatory updates on emerging technology here for Crypto News.

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Last updated: 

July 21, 2025

The majority of Polymarket bettors are predicting that Bitcoin will hit at least $125,000 in value this month, a new poll on the decentralized prediction market shows.

Polymarket Bettors Back $125K Bitcoin Threshold

According to the poll, 34% of Polymarket bettors believe that Bitcoin will cross the $125,000 threshold by the end of July.

In contrast, just 11% of the poll’s participating bettors predict that the cryptocurrency will rally above $130,000 this month.

Meanwhile, just 3% and 1% of the decentralized prediction market’s bettors believe that Bitcoin will cross the $140,000 and $150,000 marks, respectively.

Crypto Legislation Comes Into Focus for Policy Proponents

News of the Polymarket users’ predictions comes just one week after Bitcoin reached its all-time high of over $123,000 during a pivotal moment for crypto legislation in the United States.

On Friday, U.S. President Donald Trump signed the Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for U.S. Stablecoins (GENIUS) Act into law during an afternoon bill signing at the White House.

“Let me say, the entire crypto community, for years you were mocked and dismissed and counted out,” Trump said. “You were counted out as little as a year and a half ago—but this signing is a massive validation.”

Republican Party officials dubbed the push ‘Crypto Week,’ and the House of Representatives was also able to advance the CLARITY Act and the Anti-CBDC Act despite a failed procedural vote on July 15.

Truth Social Bolsters Bitcoin Treasury Holdings

Truth Social parent organization, Trump Media and Technology Group Corp, announced on July 21 that the company had amassed over $2 billion in purchases in its Bitcoin Treasury, potentially bolstering bullish attitudes toward the cryptocurrency.

“These assets help ensure our Company’s financial freedom, help protect us against discrimination by financial institutions, and will create synergies with the utility token we’re planning to introduce across the Truth Social ecosphere,” Trump Media’s CEO and President Devin Nunes said.

As of Monday afternoon, Bitcoin is hovering around $116,000.

Prediction market data shows traders are wagering millions on the price of Bitcoin reaching levels above $120,000 in 2025.

On the decentralized platform Polymarket, a market asking what price Bitcoin will hit in 2025, has attracted over $15.5 million in volume. Traders assign a 75% probability that the asset will exceed $120,000 by the end of the year.

The data provides a quantifiable look at market conviction, translating sentiment into financially backed probabilities.

The platform indicates a 55% chance of Bitcoin surpassing $130,000 and a 33% chance of it breaking the $150,000 mark. More ambitious targets, such as $200,000, are given a 13% probability.

A separate market focused on the immediate term is more conservative; with over $3.5 million in volume, it assigns a 58% probability for Bitcoin to be above $115,000 by August 1, 2025, but only a 30% chance of it crossing $120,000 in the same period.

This activity is set against a backdrop of significant evolution for Polymarket itself. According to data from Dune Analytics, the platform’s user base and volume expanded during the 2024 U.S. election, driving monthly volume to a peak of $2.6 billion in November 2024.

In the months following the election, a new baseline of activity was established. Last month’s trading volume stood at $1.16 billion, a figure over nine times higher than the volume recorded in June last year.

The number of active traders, at 241,000 last month, was similarly more than seven times higher than the previous year. This suggests the platform retained a portion of the audience it acquired during the high-profile political event.

The composition of platform activity appears to be shifting. Since a peak of 455,000 active traders in January 2025, the number of participants has declined by 47%.

In contrast, platform volume has rebounded, growing 30% from April to June 2025. This divergence may point to a consolidation of activity among a smaller group of more heavily capitalized or higher-conviction traders.

The average volume per trader has recovered from a low of approximately $2,000 in February 2025 to around $4,800 in June 2025, which supports the idea that existing users are trading in larger sizes. Recent reports note the platform’s growth and its recent partnership with X, which Polymarket founder Shayne Coplan framed as the union of “the two top truth-seeking apps.”

While prediction markets offer a novel form of sentiment analysis, their forecasts reflect current, crowd-sourced beliefs and not certain outcomes.

The user base may not represent the broader financial world, and all markets carry inherent risks, including the potential for manipulation by actors with large amounts of capital. However, Polymarket outperformed almost all traditional polling methods during the U.S. 2025 election. Still, the regulatory environment for prediction markets also remains complex in various jurisdictions, such as the U.S. itself, even amid its latest $1 billion valuation.

Nonetheless, the substantial volume and clear directional probability on display provide a distinct, data-driven perspective on where active traders expect Bitcoin’s price to trend as of its press time price of $109,093.

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