Bitcoin (BTC) trades within a consolidation range between $104,000 and $116,000, with on-chain data revealing critical levels that could determine the next directional move.

According to a Sept. 4 report by Glassnode, Bitcoin entered a volatile downtrend following its mid-August all-time high, declining to $108,000 before rebounding toward current levels.

The UTXO Realized Price Distribution shows investors accumulated dursng the pullback, filling the $108,000-$116,000 “air gap” through consistent dip-buying behavior.

The current trading range corresponds to the 0.85 and 0.95 quantile cost basis levels, ranging from $104,100 to $114,300. Historically, this zone acts as a consolidation corridor following euphoric peaks, often producing choppy sideways markets.

Breaking below $104,100 would replay post-ATH exhaustion phases seen earlier this cycle, while recovery above $114,300 would signal renewed demand control.

Short-term holder trends

Short-term holders face mounting pressure within the range, with their profit percentage collapsing from above 90% to 42% during the decline to $108,000.

The sharp reversal typically triggers fear-driven selling from recent buyers before seller exhaustion enables rebounds.

Currently, over 60% of short-term holders have returned to profit, representing a neutral positioning compared to recent extremes.

Only sustained recovery above $114,000-$116,000, where over 75% of short-term holder supply would achieve profitability, could restore confidence necessary to attract new demand.

Futures market funding rates are sitting at $366,000 per hour, positioned neutrally between the established $300,000 baseline and overheated levels exceeding $1 million seen in March and December 2024.

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Further compression below the threshold would confirm broader demand deterioration across derivatives markets.

TradFi demand contraction

Spot exchange-traded fund (ETF) flows reveal weakening institutional demand from traditional finance (TradFi) channels.

Since April, Bitcoin ETF inflows have averaged over 3,000 BTC daily but cooled through July to the current 14-day average of just 540 BTC. The contraction mirrors similar patterns in Ethereum (ETH) ETFs, where inflows dropped from 56,000-85,000 ETH daily to 16,600 ETH.

Bitcoin ETF flows significantly outweighed CME futures positioning changes, indicating TradFi investors primarily expressed directional demand through spot exposure rather than derivatives strategies.

This differs from Ethereum markets, where CME open interest changes represented over 50% of cumulative ETF inflows, suggesting greater use of cash-and-carry arbitrage strategies.

The range-bound trading follows Bitcoin’s third multi-month euphoric phase of the current cycle, characterized by overwhelming price momentum pushing the majority supply into profit.

Such periods require persistent capital inflows to offset continuous profit-taking, a dynamic that has historically proved unsustainable in the long term.

Breaking below $104,000 risks triggering post-ATH exhaustion, with a potential downside toward the $93,000-$95,000 levels, based on previous cycle patterns.

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The following article is a guest post and opinion of Chris “Jinx” Jenkins, Head of Operations at Pocket Network.

Internet pioneer Tim Berners-Lee once dreamed of an open and accessible digital information system. His vision for the web — a virtual space where everyone had equitable opportunities to contribute, collaborate, share, and learn together — has shifted.

But the internet has moved in the opposite direction from this open garden. From single points of failure to censorship by sectors both public and private, it is now in the middle of a fight between messaging-obsessed political bodies and profit-hungry corporations, each seeking to control or monetize information flows.

Web3, powered by decentralized apps (DApps), promises to rekindle Berners-Lee’s dream of a permissionless space for free, open communication and innovation. Yet ironically, DApps today also rely heavily on centralized infrastructure or data sources. These single points of failure compromise the entire ecosystem’s security and integrity — as seen in many of the complaints around Solana.

Systems are only as secure as their weakest points. And to fulfill Web3’s ethos, DApps must adopt and implement genuinely open, decentralized, and verifiable infrastructure.

DApps Suffer from Concentrated Vulnerabilities

Most developers build the front end of DApps on a decentralized interface, but depend on centralized data infrastructure for backend support.

DApps largely run on centralized data hosting platforms and cloud providers like Amazon Web Services, Google Cloud, and Microsoft Azure. Although easily accessible, these platforms are susceptible to single-point failures and censorship, leading to global outages and downtime.

History is a witness to these failures. There are multiple examples where Infrastructure-as-a-Service platforms have faced disruptions, interrupting seamless DApp usage.

For instance, although MetaMask functions as a decentralized wallet, its endpoints run on centralized tech like Infura to access Ethereum. In 2022, when Infura blocked access after U.S. sanctions, MetaMask users temporarily couldn’t access their wallets from specific regions.

This is not an isolated incident. Infura clients have also faced interruptions in the past. Similarly, Solana and Polygon users faced outages due to the overloading of centralized RPCs during high network traffic.

DApps using centralized infrastructure to supply data are thus susceptible to downtime, information inaccuracies, usage gaps, and disconnected data flows. These incidents demonstrate the need to shift to decentralized infrastructure for data transferability and smooth accessibility without facing outages.

The Need for a Decentralized DApp Ecosystem

DApps without a decentralized stack are an oxymoron.

Instead of AWS, Google, or Azure, DApps must use open-source solutions like InterPlanetary File System (IPFS), Filecoin, or Arweave. These protocols provide a tamper-proof, distributed storage facility with high uptime and protection against random outages.

DApps running on decentralized infrastructure work with independent node operators. This helps distribute data queries across the network, eliminating single points of failure for unstoppable data availability.

Since individual nodes cannot block information flows, DApps run smoothly even when several nodes are offline. So the network always remains accessible without any downtime.

Decentralized infrastructure further removes the dependency on intermediaries who arbitrarily control data flows. Instead, DApps can connect with data, service providers, and users within an integrated, enmeshed open-source system.

Pocket Network unlocks open data accessibility so that any DApp can get the information it needs, without relying on centralized or singular entities. Pocket’s Shannon upgrade created the first truly permissionless Open API Network.

Decentralized social networks like BlueSky and the AT Protocol don’t depend on centralized RPCs. Rather, they work with decentralized RPCs to access open data. Similarly, DeFi protocols using Chainlink don’t need to depend on centralized APIs to source real-time on-chain price data.

A robust, genuinely decentralized tech stack is critical for DApps to build a digital ecosystem without single points of failure, paving the way to return to Berners-Lee’s vision of a globally accessible network.

Towards Berners-Lee’s Vision of an Open Internet

Tim didn’t envision a society where a few megacorporations build walled gardens with asymmetrical relationships between users and companies. He wanted open communication in the digital world without any powerful intermediaries controlling information exchange.

This vision is aligned with Satoshi Nakamoto’s idea of a decentralized, peer-to-peer exchange system. And although crypto now leans toward a casino-style gambling circus, that was not how Nakamoto and the cypherpunk community imagined it to be.

That said, Web3 innovators are actively building the infrastructure necessary to bring Tim and Satoshi’s vision to fruition. Because an open digital world with equitable accessibility is a must-have, not a nice-to-have.

Decentralized infrastructure protocols for open-source data are rapidly emerging as the new frontier for seamless data accessibility to train AI models and support cross-chain DApp usage. With a $350 billion open data market, it’s critical to wrest control away from centralized providers and distribute it among decentralized operators.

To thrive, crypto, AI, and other emerging tech must reject Web2’s business model and embrace the internet’s OG vision, now enshrined in the Web3 paradigm. Moving toward a decentralized infrastructure that doesn’t suffer from single points of failure is crucial to building a resilient and reliable internet.

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Bitcoin’s price remains in a zone where it is seeing little upward momentum as it continues to hover below its recent all-time high. After reaching above $123,000 earlier this month, the asset has pulled back slightly, trading at $119,343 at the time of writing.

This represents a 2% gain over the past week but still leaves BTC roughly 3% below its recent peak. The muted price action reflects a market that appears to be consolidating amid diverging signals from on-chain indicators and regional demand metrics.

Recent analysis from CryptoQuant contributors points to a weakening appetite for Bitcoin in both the US and South Korea, two markets that have historically contributed significant trading volume.

A closer look at exchange activity and regional pricing premiums suggests a potential shift in investor behavior, as profit-taking becomes more prominent and traders appear hesitant to buy at current levels.

Related Reading

Regional Premiums Point to Lower Demand from US and South Korea

According to a post by CryptoQuant analyst Arab Chain, the Coinbase Premium Index, which measures the price difference between Bitcoin on Coinbase and other global exchanges, has failed to climb significantly despite BTC reaching record highs in July.

The index remained around levels seen in June, suggesting that US investors using Coinbase have not been aggressively buying Bitcoin during the rally.

Arab Chain noted that the index’s movement toward negative territory alongside Bitcoin’s price increase may indicate profit-taking among American investors. This implies that some may be anticipating a correction before re-entering the market.

Similarly, the Korea Premium Index has declined, signaling reduced demand from retail investors in South Korea. This index reflects the spread between Bitcoin’s price on Korean exchanges and global averages.

The negative trend suggests Korean traders have been selling below the global average, with weak buying interest on local platforms. Arab Chain interprets this as retail traders possibly waiting for a discount to reenter the market, indicating caution among individual investors in Asia’s key crypto hub.

Exchange Inflows Suggest Rising Sell Pressure

Adding to the picture, another CryptoQuant contributor, ShayanMarkets, highlighted a notable development in BTC’s on-chain activity. The latest data reveals Bitcoin has experienced its largest net inflow to exchanges since July 2024.

Typically, large inflows signal that holders are preparing to sell, increasing supply on trading platforms and contributing to potential downward price pressure. ShayanMarkets explained that this behavior, especially when occurring near all-time highs, may indicate institutional or fund-driven profit-taking.

Such moves often align with efforts to reduce risk exposure during overextended market rallies. Historically, spikes in exchange inflows have been followed by price corrections, making this a trend to monitor closely.

Related Reading

However, the redistribution of capital from Bitcoin into other assets may benefit the broader crypto market. The analyst noted that altcoins could see renewed interest as funds rotate out of BTC. If the trend continues, traders may observe increased volatility and speculative movement across alternative tokens in the short term.

Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView

A top Mastercard executive says that the payments giant is gearing up for stablecoins to make a big impact on the global financial system.

In a new blog post, Mastercard’s executive vice president and head of global policy, Jesse McWaters, says that the company welcomes the recently passed stablecoin regulation, not only in the US with the GENIUS Act, but also in Europe with the Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA) framework.

While many view stablecoins as a threat to payments giants like Mastercard, McWaters says the company has been “preparing for this moment for years.”

“We’ve worked across the crypto and traditional finance ecosystems to explore and understand how stablecoins and other digital assets can complement and enhance existing payment systems. We’ve invested in the tools, partnerships and standards that can help stablecoins scale responsibly.”

McWaters also hints that the company is coordinating its network of partners, which includes “governments, crypto natives, financial institutions and technology partners,” to prepare for stablecoin adoption.

Says the executive,

“The GENIUS Act, MiCA and other emerging frameworks open the door to a future filled with more innovation. And Mastercard is walking through it – by building the infrastructure, setting the standards and enabling the partnerships that will help define the next era of digital money.

We’ve made meaningful progress. We’re excited to take stablecoins to the next level.”

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Disclaimer: Opinions expressed at The Daily Hodl are not investment advice. Investors should do their due diligence before making any high-risk investments in Bitcoin, cryptocurrency or digital assets. Please be advised that your transfers and trades are at your own risk, and any losses you may incur are your responsibility. The Daily Hodl does not recommend the buying or selling of any cryptocurrencies or digital assets, nor is The Daily Hodl an investment advisor. Please note that The Daily Hodl participates in affiliate marketing.

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Arslan Butt

Crypto Writer

Arslan Butt

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Arslan Butt is an experienced webinar speaker, market analyst, and content writer specializing in crypto, forex, and commodities. He provides expert insights, trading strategies, and in-depth analysis…

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June 3, 2025

Bitcoin (BTC)’s price action around the $105,000 level has market technicians buzzing. After its historic push into six figures, BTC has carved out a textbook symmetrical triangle formation that’s nearing completion. What makes this setup particularly compelling isn’t just the pattern itself, but the convergence of multiple technical factors suggesting we’re on the cusp of a breakout.

The triangle pattern, visible on the 2-hour chart, shows a series of lower highs meeting ascending lows, creating a compression zone that typically resolves with a powerful directional move. The trendlines are converging at around $105,500, forcing a decision point for traders within potentially the next 24-48 hours.

Bitcoin Key Technical Indicators Signals Flash Green

The current technical landscape strongly favors the bulls:

1. RSI divergence is unmistakable, with the indicator forming higher lows while price temporarily dipped, a classic sign of waning bearish momentum.
2. The MACD histogram which has shifted from negative (-8.218) to positive territory (+218) with the blue line crossing above the signal line, indicating building momentum.
3. 50-period EMA at $105,420 has repeatedly caught price drops, functioning as dynamic support

What’s particularly telling is the volume profile during this consolidation. Trading volume has steadily decreased as the pattern forms, exactly what technical analysts want to see before a breakout. This declining volume confirms the pattern’s validity and suggests accumulation rather than distribution.

Smart Money’s Triangle Trading Playbook: Bitcoin Breakout Ahead?

For the moment, Bitcoin price prediction remains neutral, given the symmetrical triangle pattern, keeping BTC in a narrow range. For traders looking to capitalize on this high-probability setup, the strategy is surprisingly straightforward, though timing is everything.

The classic entry point comes on a confirmed breakout above $106,767, with most professionals requiring both price action and volume confirmation. The typical target, measured by projecting the triangle’s height from the breakout point, suggests a move toward $109,000.

Smart money places stops just below the most recent swing low at $104,098, tight enough to quickly invalidate the trade if wrong, but with enough room to avoid getting shaken out by normal market noise.

With institutional players like Sber launching Bitcoin-linked bonds and Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) raising another $250M for BTC purchases, the fundamental backdrop supports what the charts are telling us: Bitcoin’s next leg up may be closer than many realize.

BTC Bull Token Presale Nears $7.8M Cap as 61% APY Staking Attracts Investors

With BTC/USD trading near $105K, attention is rapidly shifting to altcoins, especially BTC Bull Token ($BTCBULL). As of today, the presale has raised $6,772,528.93 out of a $7,789,647 cap, with just over $1 million left before the next price hike.

BTC-Pegged Rewards and Supply Burns Drive Scarcity

BTC Bull Token’s innovative mechanism ties rewards directly to Bitcoin’s price. Here’s how it works:

• BTC Airdrops: Token holders receive BTC rewards, with presale participants enjoying priority.
• Supply Reductions: For every $50,000 increase in BTC’s price, a portion of $BTCBULL is burned, reducing overall supply and supporting token value.
• Current Token Price: $0.002545, poised to rise as the cap nears.

This approach blends dynamic rewards with built-in scarcity, aligning $BTCBULL’s value with Bitcoin’s performance.

61% APY Staking Pool Without Lockups

BTC Bull Token’s staking pool offers an enticing 61% APY, currently holding 1,731,936,103 $BTCBULL. The key benefits include:

• No Lockups or Fees: Investors can stake and unstake their tokens freely without incurring penalties.
• Full Liquidity: Access funds anytime, unlike typical DeFi lockups.
• Consistent Yields: Passive income for token holders, independent of market conditions.

This structure appeals to both seasoned DeFi investors and newcomers seeking yield without complex terms.

Momentum Builds Ahead of Presale Cap

With less than $1 million left before the presale closes, buyers are moving fast. BTCBULL’s combination of BTC-tied rewards, strategic burns, and high-yield staking is driving participation. The presale offers an opportunity to enter before the subsequent price increase, especially as BTC’s price action intensifies.

Key Highlights:

• USDT Raised: $6,772,528.93 / $7,789,647
• Token Price: $0.002545
• Total Staking Pool: 1.73 billion $BTCBULL
• Staking APY: ~61%

BTCBULL Token’s innovative model is attracting attention as it nears its hard cap. The presale window is closing quickly, making this the last chance to secure the current price before the subsequent price increase.

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It’s no secret that Ethereum’s performance has been tame compared to Bitcoin since the start of this cycle. However, this trend became most apparent at the start of the year when ETH’s price fell toward the $3,000 mark while BTC continued to move sideways above $100,000.

When the Bitcoin price eventually lost the $100,000 level in the first quarter, the value of Ethereum had already fallen close to $2,000. While the premier cryptocurrency has reached a new all-time high in recent days, the “king of altcoins” faces significant resistance around $2,800.

Will Divergence Lead To Revaluation Of Investment Strategies?

The rate of both assets’ price growth in the past few weeks and months provides an insight into the declining relationship between Bitcoin and Ethereum. In a recent Quicktake post on the CryptoQuant platform, on-chain analyst Carmelo Aleman shared that a decoupling has occurred between the world’s two largest cryptocurrencies.

Aleman defined correlation in his post:

Correlation is a statistical measure of the relationship between two variables. In financial analysis, it helps determine whether two assets tend to move in the same direction (positive correlation), in opposite directions (negative correlation), or independently (near zero).

Historically, Bitcoin and Ethereum have always maintained a strong positive correlation — usually above 0.7. This long-term trend explains why most of BTC’s movements were often mirrored by the price of Ethereum over the past few years.

Source: CryptoQuant

Aleman, however, noted that a decoupling has occurred between the top two assets since start of this year. Data from the BTC-Alts Correlation Matrix (Yearly) shows that the correlation was 0.63 on January 1, 2025 before falling to 0.05 by May 22, 2025.

Source: CryptoQuant

From an investment perspective, this major divergence breaks one of the crypto market’s most consistent patterns, leading to a reevaluation of strategies based on Bitcoin-Ethereum correlation. “It also adds uncertainty for investors, who can no longer expect ETH to follow BTC,” Aleman added.

The on-chain analyst said:

Portfolio models, risk strategies, and return forecasts must now adapt. This may also reflect how Ethereum is becoming driven by its own internal factors—like protocol upgrades, regulation, or DeFi—indicating growing independence.

Aleman also mentioned that this shift means Ether and related assets are at an increased risk of missing out on bull markets. This effect is largely seen in 2025 where the Bitcoin price has climbed, while the value of ETH and other Ethereum-related altcoins has often stalled or declined.

Bitcoin And Ethereum Price

As of this writing, Bitcoin and Ethereum are valued at around $107,450 and $2,507, respectively. While the BTC price climbed by more than 5% this past week, ETH’s value is up by less than half of that in the same period.

The price of BTC against ETH on the daily timeframe | Source: BTCETH chart on TradingView

Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView

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Key Takeaways:

• Analyst predicts a low VIX (
• The stablecoin market cap hits $220 billion, driving crypto liquidity and Bitcoin’s bullish price action.
• A negative Bitcoin funding rate hints at a possible short-squeeze to $100,000.

Bitcoin network economist Timothy Peterson raised Bitcoin’s (BTC) chances of hitting a new high in 100 days, and he maintains an optimistic outlook in 2025. 

In an analysis shared on X that ties BTC’s price action to the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) —an indicator that measures 30-day market volatility expectations — the analyst pointed out that the VIX index has dropped from 55 to 25 over the past 50 trading days. A VIX score below 18 implied a “risk-on” environment, favoring assets like Bitcoin. 

Peterson’s model, which had a 95% tracking accuracy, predicted a $135,000 target within the next 100 days if the VIX remains low. This aligns with Bitcoin’s sensitivity to market sentiment, as a low VIX reduces uncertainty, encouraging investment in riskier assets.

Speaking on Bitcoin’s volatility, Fidelity’s director of global macro, Jurrien Timmer, compared Bitcoin’s nature to “Dr.Jekyll and Mr.Hyde.” Timmer believed Bitcoin’s ability to act as both a store of value (Dr. Jekyll) and a speculative asset (Mr. Hyde) differentiates it from gold, which remains a consistent “hard money” asset. Timmer emphasized the dynamics between Bitcoin and the global money supply and said, 

“Note that when M2 has grown and the stock market is rallying, Bitcoin has been off to the races because it has both attributes working for it. But when M2 has grown and equities are correcting, not so much.”

This underscores Bitcoin’s sensitivity to macroeconomic conditions, making its performance less predictable than gold’s.

Related: Crypto ‘decoupling’ story ends as stocks follow Bitcoin’s rally

Stablecoin market cap hits record $220 billion

Data from CryptoQuant highlighted that the stablecoin market capitalization hit a record $220 billion, signaling a liquidity surge in the crypto market. This marks Bitcoin’s exit from a bearish phase as capital flows return, and with stablecoins representing crypto liquidity, new BTC highs could be a likely outcome in the coming weeks. 

While BTC continues its uptrend, lower-time frame (LTF) charts reveal a shift in market dynamics. The funding rate for BTC futures has turned negative again, indicating a rise in short positions as traders bet against the rally.

The 4-hour chart’s funding rate has reached its most negative level in 2025, indicating that short-side liquidity significantly exceeds long-side liquidity. This creates a condition for a potential short squeeze.

This imbalance could propel BTC toward the $100,000 level. Cointelegraph pointed out that over $3 billion is at risk for a short-side liquidation, which may amplify upward momentum, catching bearish traders off guard. 

Related: Bitcoin hodler unrealized profits near 350% as $100K risks sell-off

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

]]> https://earlybirdsinvest.com/bitcoin-data-macroeconomic-charts-point-to-new-btc-all-time-high-in-100-days-analysts/feed/ 0 34063 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/is-transaction-validity-the-validity-of-the-binary-from-the-point-of-view-of-the-write-node/ https://earlybirdsinvest.com/is-transaction-validity-the-validity-of-the-binary-from-the-point-of-view-of-the-write-node/#respond Tue, 08 Apr 2025 01:07:14 +0000 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/is-transaction-validity-the-validity-of-the-binary-from-the-point-of-view-of-the-write-node/

I think valid It is generally a somewhat vague term. On the one hand, nodes validate transactions using a list of criteria. If all criteria are met, the transaction is considered valid. One such criteria is:For each input, there must be an output to be referenced and is not available yet” (Anthonopoulos, Bitcoin Masterp. 235). Therefore, if all inputs in a new transaction are UTXOS, the criteria are checked.

At the same time, when discussing “51% attacks,” Antonopoulos states:The more confirmations you get, the more difficult it will be to disable transactions with 51% of attacks.This means that chain reorganization can invalidate transactions.

Therefore, from the miner’s perspective, transaction validity is a binary property. However, from a broader network perspective, it is probabilistic.

A closely followed crypto strategist believes that one Ethereum (ETH) competitor may have reached a local bottom amid a broad market sell-off.

Pseudonymous analyst Inmortal tells his 231,100 followers on the social media platform X that Solana (SOL) may be presenting a rare buying opportunity after hitting the 24-hour low of $112.

“SOL: feels like a generational entry.”

Looking at his chart, the trader suggests SOL is printing a similar pattern from 2021, when SOL dipped more than 60% from its local top before putting up massive gains.

SOL is trading for $116 at time of writing, down 1.8% in the last 24 hours.

Next up, the analyst suggests that Bitcoin (BTC) is on the verge of breaking out and may reclaim the $100,000 level as support by next month.

“Maybe this dream [will] come true, just maybe.”

Bitcoin is trading for $82,719 at time of writing, flat on the day.

The analyst is also turning bullish on FLOKI (FLOKI) as the memecoin bounces off of lows not seen since more than a year ago.

“Floki at pre-bull market levels is crazy. Added some spot here, see you in a few months.”

FLOKI is trading for $0.00005453 at time of writing, down 1.8% in the last 24 hours.

Lastly, the analyst says that ETH may be on the verge of a bullish reversal based on historical precedence.

“Expansions lead to retraces. Retraces lead to bounces. Bounce soon.”

ETH is trading for $1,810 at time of writing, flat on the day.

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