Phase – Earlybirds Invest https://earlybirdsinvest.com Latest Crypto News Sun, 24 Aug 2025 03:52:08 +0000 en-US hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=6.9.7 https://i0.wp.com/earlybirdsinvest.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/cropped-New-Project-2024-12-17T235703.455.png?fit=32%2C32&ssl=1 Phase – Earlybirds Invest https://earlybirdsinvest.com 32 32 240146708 Analyst Says Dogecoin Price Is Entering Expansion Phase – Here’s What It Means https://earlybirdsinvest.com/analyst-says-dogecoin-price-is-entering-expansion-phase-heres-what-it-means/ https://earlybirdsinvest.com/analyst-says-dogecoin-price-is-entering-expansion-phase-heres-what-it-means/#respond Sun, 24 Aug 2025 03:52:08 +0000 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/analyst-says-dogecoin-price-is-entering-expansion-phase-heres-what-it-means/

According to crypto analyst Cas Abbé, Dogecoin’s current movement suggests it is stepping into a new expansion phase after an extended period of accumulation. This development comes after months of relatively muted sentiment with strong price support, which now appears to be forming the groundwork for another strong breakout. Notably, technical analysis of various charts tracking Dogecoin’s hash rate, CVDD levels, alpha pricing, and network stress index provides context to this technical outlook, which might see Dogecoin surge to new price highs.

Signs Of An Expansion Phase In Dogecoin

Taking to the social media platform X, crypto analyst Cas Abbé explained a few reasons as to why the Dogecoin price is about to enter into an expansion phase. The first being that Dogecoin has been trading inside a wide accumulation range in the past few months. This base has been at the $0.20 price level since the beginning of August.

This type of prolonged base-building is mostly always known to precede sharp upward moves, as it reflects the gradual buildup of strong demand. Furthermore, the analyst noted that the current breakout attempts are backed by rising trading volume, which he interpreted as institutional accumulation. This is unlike past Dogecoin bull cycles, which were mostly based on retail hype.

Technical momentum indicators such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) are currently in a mid-range position, and this means that Dogecoin still has significant room to climb before hitting overbought conditions.

Another factor is the Dogecoin mining hash rate chart. As shown in the image below, the hash rate has been rising massively since the beginning of 2025, showing that network strength has been steadily climbing even during price consolidations and declines.

Historical Patterns Back Expansion Outlook

One of Abbé’s key points is that Dogecoin’s price cycles have consistently followed a similar pattern of long sideways stretches followed by sudden vertical expansions. This cycle structure can be seen in the cumulative value days destroyed (CVDD) chart. As shown in the chart below, Dogecoin’s price action stayed well within its accumulation zones before breaking higher in 2018 and then in 2021.

However, unlike the peaks in 2018 and 2021 where on-chain metrics were overheated, current conditions are calm, which shows more of genuine accumulation rather than profit-taking and distribution.

The expansion phase is not about short-lived spikes but rather the start of a new directional trend that could redefine Dogecoin’s price structure. Although the analyst did not define a price target, technical analyses from other analysts point to price predictions that will take the Dogecoin price well above its 2021 peak of $0.7316 into the $1 threshold and beyond. A similar analysis by crypto analyst Javon Marks points to a Dogecoin price target of $1.25.

At the time of writing, Dogecoin is trading at $0.237, up by 9.5% in the past 24 hours.

Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView

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Bitcoin Supply Dynamics Paints A Clear Picture of The Current Phase Of The Market https://earlybirdsinvest.com/bitcoin-supply-dynamics-paints-a-clear-picture-of-the-current-phase-of-the-market/ https://earlybirdsinvest.com/bitcoin-supply-dynamics-paints-a-clear-picture-of-the-current-phase-of-the-market/#respond Fri, 15 Aug 2025 14:10:59 +0000 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/bitcoin-supply-dynamics-paints-a-clear-picture-of-the-current-phase-of-the-market/

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The broader cryptocurrency market has shifted into a heightened bearish phase, causing Bitcoin to drop from its current all-time high of $124,000 to the $117,000 threshold. While bearish pressure is building, indicators such as Bitcoin’s supply dynamics are providing insights about the current state of the market and investors’ sentiment.

What Bitcoin Supply Data Says About The Market

Bitcoin’s price has fallen sharply after reaching a new all-time high on Thursday, which has sparked speculation about the current state of the market. Amidst the growing speculations, Boris, a crypto trader and on-chain expert, has provided a detailed analysis of the current state of BTC’s market, using the supply dynamics.

Bitcoin supply patterns are currently painting a vivid picture of investor behavior, accumulation tendencies, and possible price direction, as well as the market’s health. Boris’ examination of the supply dynamics hinges on the behavior of long-term holders and short-term holders.

As Bitcoin rose to its all-time high, supply dynamics revealed a stark divergence between these different groups of investors. Presently, long-term BTC holders are steadily offloading their holdings while short-term BTC holders are persistently accumulating the asset at a rapid rate.

This divergence in sentiment between the groups indicates that the market is currently in a post-all-time high stress test. A post-all-time high stress test reflects a phase where the boundaries of market resiliency and investor belief are being tested.

Bitcoin
A divergence between short and long-term holder supply | Source: Boris on X

With short-term holders holding strong and long-term traders responding aggressively to price fluctuations, the present phase is determining whether BTC can maintain its value and momentum following the recent high. 

Data shows that long-term holders’ supply saw a drop from 15.50 million BTC to 15.28 million BTC, which is an indication of profit-taking. Meanwhile, the supply of short-term holders rose from 4.38 million BTC to 4.61 million BTC, suggesting that the cohort is capitalizing on recent rallies.

According to the on-chain expert, this change demonstrates that STHs followed the trend and increased risk, while LTHs responded to the rally with sales. After a short period, Bitcoin’s price quickly fell back from about $124,000, putting late buyers through a stress test.

Furthermore, Boris noted that the final wave exhibits a classic market pattern where experienced holders limit their exposure and short-term holders accumulate close to the top. Such a development typically signals a loss of momentum.

Short-Term BTC Holders Are Showing Strength

A recent research from Glassnode, a leading on-chain data analytics firm, has also revealed an underlying strength among short-term BTC holders. The platform’s research is solely focused on the Bitcoin Short-Term Holder SOPR Indicator.

Specifically, this key metric tracks whether new investors are selling at a profit or loss. As BTC’s price surges, the metric temporarily dipped below neutral levels, but quickly recovered and rose above neutral. This move, according to Glassnode, shows limited realized losses and indicates that new Bitcoin investors are prepared to protect their cost basis, which is currently close to $112,000.

Bitcoin
BTC trading at $118,988 on the 1D chart | Source: BTCUSDT on Tradingview.com

Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

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FOMO Phase for Bitcoin and S&P 500 Could Be Approaching if This Happens, According to Analyst Jason Pizzino https://earlybirdsinvest.com/fomo-phase-for-bitcoin-and-sp-500-could-be-approaching-if-this-happens-according-to-analyst-jason-pizzino/ https://earlybirdsinvest.com/fomo-phase-for-bitcoin-and-sp-500-could-be-approaching-if-this-happens-according-to-analyst-jason-pizzino/#respond Wed, 06 Aug 2025 04:06:56 +0000 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/fomo-phase-for-bitcoin-and-sp-500-could-be-approaching-if-this-happens-according-to-analyst-jason-pizzino/

A popular crypto analyst thinks that Bitcoin (BTC) and stocks may skyrocket if one event occurs.

In a new YouTube video, Jason Pizzino tells his 353,000 subscribers that if the S&P 500 (SPX) breaks out past a key resistance level, it may trigger FOMO (fear of missing out), driving Bitcoin and stocks even higher as people with cash on the sidelines rush in.

“If the S&P is able to break out of this zone, break past the logarithmic resistance that spans back from the peak of 2007 – and 2009 being that low – I think we could go on a pretty significant run to the upside. And I could even say it’s severe for the bears or anyone sitting on the sideline with too much cash… Institutions, retail, no matter who it is… if they have too much still sitting on the sidelines, I think that’s where the FOMO would really kick in if we’re able to break out of this high that’s just been put in at around 6,400 points on the S&P 500.”

Source: Jason Pizzino/YouTube

Pizzino also shares a weekly chart showing Bitcoin’s historical price correlation with the S&P 500, suggesting the flagship crypto asset will likely print new all-time highs if the SPX logarithmic resistance level is breached.

“If that occurs, Bitcoin’s price … would probably follow suit into that period.”

Source: Jason Pizzino/YouTube

As of Monday’s close, the SPX is trading for 6,329. Meanwhile, Bitcoin is trading for $115,026 at time of writing, up marginally in the last 24 hours.

 

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Bitcoin Heat Macro Phase Signals Market Sits Between Accumulation And Distribution https://earlybirdsinvest.com/bitcoin-heat-macro-phase-signals-market-sits-between-accumulation-and-distribution/ https://earlybirdsinvest.com/bitcoin-heat-macro-phase-signals-market-sits-between-accumulation-and-distribution/#respond Wed, 30 Jul 2025 15:16:12 +0000 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/bitcoin-heat-macro-phase-signals-market-sits-between-accumulation-and-distribution/

Bitcoin remains trapped in a tight consolidation range that began over two weeks ago, fueling expectations of an imminent breakout or breakdown. The lack of decisive movement has created a state of market indecision, with neither bulls nor bears taking full control. Price continues to hover between key support and resistance levels, showing no strong signs of accumulation or distribution.

Related Reading

According to new data from CryptoQuant, the Bitcoin Heat Macro Phase—a metric that reflects the overall temperature of the market—currently sits at a neutral level. This indicates that market conditions are balanced, with no clear dominance from buyers or sellers. Profit-taking remains moderate, ETF inflows have slowed, and long-term holder activity is stable, all of which support the view that the market is in a wait-and-see mode.

The current structure suggests that a major move is likely approaching. With volatility compressed and the market treading water, traders and investors are closely watching for a signal that will define the next leg. Whether Bitcoin breaks out toward new highs or rolls over into a correction, the coming days will be crucial in shaping the short-term trend and broader sentiment across the crypto landscape.

Bitcoin Heat Macro Phase Signals Neutral Market

Top analyst Axel Adler recently shared insights into the Bitcoin Heat Macro Phase—a metric that condenses several key market indicators into a single scalar value, offering a simplified yet powerful view of where Bitcoin stands in its broader macro cycle. The metric combines data points such as overvaluation assessments, profit-taking activity, long-term holder (LTH) selling pressure, and ETF inflows to gauge whether the market is overheated or entering a favorable accumulation zone.

When the Heat Macro Phase reaches high values near 50%, it typically signals that these components are at their upper historical bounds—suggesting an overheated market that may be nearing a distribution phase or a correction. Conversely, readings closer to 30% reflect cooler market conditions: lower profit-taking, modest ETF activity, and minimal LTH selling. These scenarios often indicate that the market is undervalued and ripe for accumulation.

Currently, the Bitcoin Heat Macro Phase sits at 44%, putting it squarely in the neutral zone. Adler explains that this level reflects a balanced market environment—neither overbought nor undervalued. There’s no clear dominance by bulls or bears. Profit-taking is beginning to accelerate, but it hasn’t reached a level that would suggest a broader exit is underway.

Bitcoin Heat Macro Phase | Source: Axel Adler on X
Bitcoin Heat Macro Phase | Source: Axel Adler on X

This mid-range reading aligns with Bitcoin’s recent price action, which has remained in a tight consolidation for over two weeks. As the metric hovers in neutral territory, it reinforces the idea that the next significant move—whether upward toward new highs or downward in a correction—will depend entirely on upcoming price behavior. For now, the Bitcoin Heat Macro Phase acts as a market barometer, signaling patience as investors wait for the next breakout or breakdown to confirm direction.

Related Reading

BTC Price Action Details: Tight Consolidation

Bitcoin continues to consolidate between well-defined support and resistance levels, currently trading at $118,269.81 on the 12-hour chart. The price action has remained confined within a horizontal range, with upper resistance at $122,077 and strong support at $115,724. This range has persisted for over two weeks, reflecting a phase of indecision where neither bulls nor bears have asserted dominance.

BTC faces ongoing consolidation | Source: BTCUSDT chart on TradingView
BTC faces ongoing consolidation | Source: BTCUSDT chart on TradingView

The 50, 100, and 200 SMAs—located at $116,342, $111,334, and $106,668, respectively—are all trending upward, suggesting that the broader structure remains bullish. BTC is currently trading above all key moving averages, which are acting as dynamic support. However, volume has decreased significantly, indicating a lack of conviction from both sides of the market.

Related Reading

The tightening structure suggests that a breakout is approaching. If buyers manage to push BTC above $122K with strong volume, the next leg higher toward new all-time highs could follow. On the other hand, a breakdown below $115K would invalidate the current setup and open the door to a deeper correction.

Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView

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Billionaire Ray Dalio Says 15% of Portfolio in Gold or Bitcoin (BTC) Necessary for Upcoming Money Devaluation Phase https://earlybirdsinvest.com/billionaire-ray-dalio-says-15-of-portfolio-in-gold-or-bitcoin-btc-necessary-for-upcoming-money-devaluation-phase/ https://earlybirdsinvest.com/billionaire-ray-dalio-says-15-of-portfolio-in-gold-or-bitcoin-btc-necessary-for-upcoming-money-devaluation-phase/#respond Wed, 30 Jul 2025 10:47:17 +0000 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/billionaire-ray-dalio-says-15-of-portfolio-in-gold-or-bitcoin-btc-necessary-for-upcoming-money-devaluation-phase/

Billionaire Ray Dalio says investment portfolios should hold a certain percentage of Bitcoin (BTC) or gold as a hedge against the devaluation of the US dollar.

In a new interview with Master Investor podcast host Wilfred Frost, the co-chief investment officer of hedge fund Bridgewater Associates says that a proper diversification of an investment portfolio should include 15% of either gold or Bitcoin as US debt rises and geopolitical tensions increase.

“My own approach is, in my share of my portfolio, I have gold and I have some Bitcoin, but not much… I’m not going to describe my own exactly, but I’ll say the following: if you were neutral on everything, in other words, you didn’t have a point of view, and you were optimizing your portfolio for the best return-to-risk ratio, you would have about 15% of your money in gold or Bitcoin. I’m strongly preferring gold to Bitcoin. But that’s up to you.”

The risk-reward ratio, also known as the risk-return ratio, is used by investors to determine the potential gain for every dollar risked on an investment.

Dalio, who has warned that a 1970s-style period of stagflation may be coming, when there’s high inflation, high unemployment and low economic growth, says Bitcoin or gold may be an effective store of value when the US dollar loses value against other currencies, such as through money printing.

“The issue is the devaluation of money… If you have that issue and times when it occurred, which was in times of excess debt and geopolitical problems – just go back and study history, study the British pound, study the Dutch guilder, study this – you would find that in all such periods, also like the Seventies, [gold’s] an effective diversifier.

So if you had no view, you would have about 15% in that portfolio as a hedge against the other. I hope that that’s somewhat of a guide.”

 

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Bitcoin’s ‘Boring’ Phase Might End With a Big Bang—Here’s Why https://earlybirdsinvest.com/bitcoins-boring-phase-might-end-with-a-big-bang-heres-why/ https://earlybirdsinvest.com/bitcoins-boring-phase-might-end-with-a-big-bang-heres-why/#respond Wed, 30 Jul 2025 10:12:51 +0000 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/bitcoins-boring-phase-might-end-with-a-big-bang-heres-why/

TL;DR

  • Bitcoin trades sideways between $116.8K and $119.5K, with liquidity swept on both ends.
  • Michaël van de Poppe expects a stronger move the longer BTC remains rangebound.
  • CryptoQuant data shows Bitcoin is in a neutral phase with no trend dominance yet.
  • On-chain signals mirror 2020 patterns, hinting at a possible bull cycle end soon.

Price Holds in Narrow Band

Bitcoin (BTC) was priced at $118,300 at press time, down 0.2% over the week. For several weeks now, the asset has been moving in a tight zone without direction. Traders are showing caution ahead of today’s FOMC interest rate decision.

Crypto analyst Michaël van de Poppe described the current pattern as “extremely boring,” pointing to the lack of decision or momentum. Bitcoin has been holding between $116,800 and $119,500, with no clear move up or down.

His chart shows that liquidity above and below this range has already been cleared. That often happens before a strong price move. 

He added that a break above $119,500 could open the way for a test of previous highs. If the price drops instead, the $110,000 to $112,000 range may become a key area to watch for buying.

Market Shows No Clear Trend

Axel Adler Jr, an analyst at CryptoQuant, shared an update on Bitcoin’s broader market trend using a tool called the Bitcoin Heat Macro Phase. It currently stands at 44%.

Notably, this number reflects several market signals, including selling activity from long-term holders, ETF inflows, and overall demand. A higher number means the market is heating up. A lower one suggests a quiet phase, often seen before prices rise.

At 44%, Adler explained that the market is in between. 

“There is currently no pronounced dominance of either bulls or bears,” the analyst said. 

While some profit-taking is beginning, it’s still at a controlled pace.

Short-Term Cooling Continues

Another CryptoQuant analyst, known as Crypto Dan, noted a small cooling period after a brief wave of short-term activity. They looked at the amount of Bitcoin held for just one day to one week and said the numbers showed signs of short-term heat earlier this month.

Bitcoin realized cap
Source: CryptoQuant

Compared to the larger corrections seen in 2024 and early 2025, this phase appears smaller in both strength and length. The analyst also said the recent price increase was not large, which could limit how deep or long any correction might be.

Crypto Dan suggested that traders may need to wait through this cooling period before seeing the next upward trend.

Long-Term Wallet Activity Shows Familiar Pattern

On-chain analyst Joao Wedson pointed out that the number of Bitcoin wallets holding more than 10,000 BTC is falling again—just like it did during the 2020–2021 bull market. During that time, the price kept rising even as large holders reduced their positions.

“The same pattern is happening again,” Wedson said. 

He also mentioned that this may point to the final stretch of the current bull market cycle. 

“In my opinion, this signals that the BTC bull market has just a few weeks left.” he said

This pattern is being watched closely, especially as the market continues to move within a narrow range.

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Bitcoin Gearing Up for ‘Big Move’ After Reaching True Price Discovery Phase: ProCap’s Anthony Pompliano https://earlybirdsinvest.com/bitcoin-gearing-up-for-big-move-after-reaching-true-price-discovery-phase-procaps-anthony-pompliano/ https://earlybirdsinvest.com/bitcoin-gearing-up-for-big-move-after-reaching-true-price-discovery-phase-procaps-anthony-pompliano/#respond Mon, 14 Jul 2025 20:10:02 +0000 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/bitcoin-gearing-up-for-big-move-after-reaching-true-price-discovery-phase-procaps-anthony-pompliano/

Professional Capital Management founder and CEO Anthony Pompliano says that Bitcoin (BTC) has become the “greatest show on Wall Street.”

In a new interview with CNBC’s Squawk Box, Pompliano gives three reasons why BTC is leading the crypto markets to new all-time highs.

“First of all, welcome to The Greatest Show on Wall Street. I think Wall Street’s full, undivided attention is now on Bitcoin. And really, there are three things that drove this move.

The first is that there have been record inflows into the ETFs (exchange-traded funds). Last Thursday alone saw $1.2 billion—the second-highest day ever. Those ETFs now collectively have over $140 billion. BlackRock’s fund alone is now almost $90 billion. In about a year, they went from not having a Bitcoin ETF to having one of the top 20 largest ETFs in the world. So there’s a lot of inflows there.

The second thing is that the options expired at the end of Q2. So all that downward pressure on Bitcoin went away. That helps—kind of like a beach ball being pushed underwater. Obviously, it can pop back up.

And then the third thing is that there were a lot of short sellers. You started to see that build up, and as they got blown out as Bitcoin ran, you entered this price discovery phase. If you go back to November, we went from $70,000 to $90,000 in about two to three weeks. And $70,000 was a new all-time high.”

While not giving explicit price targets, Pompliano says that BTC is in for a “big move” now that’s broken the previous all-time high of $110,000.

“Well, what we’re watching now is that we’ve broken through that $110,000 range, which was the previous all-time high. I don’t know if it goes to $140,000, but it sure is going to make a big move here—because we are in a true price discovery phase.”

 

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Dogecoin Enters Distribution Phase After Crash Below $0.15, Next Steps Revealed https://earlybirdsinvest.com/dogecoin-enters-distribution-phase-after-crash-below-0-15-next-steps-revealed/ https://earlybirdsinvest.com/dogecoin-enters-distribution-phase-after-crash-below-0-15-next-steps-revealed/#respond Wed, 02 Jul 2025 02:07:25 +0000 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/dogecoin-enters-distribution-phase-after-crash-below-0-15-next-steps-revealed/

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According to the latest Power of Three (PO3) H1 analysis by crypto market analyst Trader Tardigrade, Dogecoin (DOGE) has officially entered a distribution phase following a sharp breakdown below the critical $0.15 support. This move signals a shift in market dynamics, with Dogecoin’s next moves set to push its price toward new highs. 

PO3 Pattern Confirms Dogecoin’s Next Moves

Dogecoin’s chances of resuming its previous bullish run are rising fast, as a new chart analysis by Trader Tardigrade reveals that the top meme coin has just moved into the distribution phase of a key PO3 market structure. This development comes just after DOGE’s price broke down below the $0.15 mark earlier last month. However, the meme coin has since rebounded and is now hovering just slightly above that level at around $0.16. 

Trader Tardigrade’s chart analysis confirms that Dogecoin is about to complete all three critical PO3 stages—Accumulation, Manipulation, and Distribution—on the 1-hour timeframe. This progression now sets the stage for its next move, signaling the potential beginning of a fresh upward breakout

The PO3 sequence began with a tight consolidation zone marked by accumulation around June 25-26. This was followed by a sharp drop below the support level, marking the manipulation phase between June 27 and 28. This strategic shakeout, typically designed to trap late sellers and liquidate weak hands, pushed DOGE below the $0.15 threshold. However, instead of undergoing a continued downtrend, the meme coin’s price recovered slightly, reclaiming the lost range before initiating a strong rally on June 30. 

The green-shaded area on the chart highlights the distribution phase, where Dogecoin’s bullish momentum has returned aggressively. Notably, price broke above short-term resistance levels and climbed toward $0.175, confirming the final stage of the PO3 structure and also reflecting growing buying pressure. This development implies that the recent crash was likely not indicative of market failure, but a possible setup for Dogecoin’s next bullish phase.

Dogecoin MACD Bullish Cross Established

In other news, Trader Tardigrade announced on X that Dogecoin has finally established a bullish Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) crossover on the daily chart, signaling the first technical reversal in weeks after a prolonged downtrend. The analysis indicates that the crossover is now active, marking a potential shift in momentum from bearish to bullish. 

This development follows weeks of sustained losses that began in early June, when a bearish MACD cross triggered a sharp breakdown from the $0.21 level. With the bearish cross potentially overturned, Dogecoin may be entering a renewed upward trend.

Dogecoin
Source: Trader Tardigrade on X

As a result, Trader Tardigrade’s chart shows that the next upside target may extend above $0.28 in the coming weeks if DOGE continues to hold above key support while maintaining strong momentum. 

Dogecoin
DOGE trading at $0.21 on the 1D chart | Source: DOGEUSDT on Tradingview.com

Featured image from Getty Images, chart from Tradingview.com

Editorial Process for bitcoinist is centered on delivering thoroughly researched, accurate, and unbiased content. We uphold strict sourcing standards, and each page undergoes diligent review by our team of top technology experts and seasoned editors. This process ensures the integrity, relevance, and value of our content for our readers.

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Bitcoin ‘demand generation’ phase mirrors 2022 market bottom: Are new highs incoming? https://earlybirdsinvest.com/bitcoin-demand-generation-phase-mirrors-2022-market-bottom-are-new-highs-incoming/ https://earlybirdsinvest.com/bitcoin-demand-generation-phase-mirrors-2022-market-bottom-are-new-highs-incoming/#respond Mon, 30 Jun 2025 21:15:17 +0000 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/bitcoin-demand-generation-phase-mirrors-2022-market-bottom-are-new-highs-incoming/

Key takeaways:

  • Stablecoin inflow patterns mirror levels seen after the LUNA and FTX collapse. Pointing to fresh accumulation and the potential for a breakout rally.

  • Bitcoin holds above $100,000, but new user activity is still low, indicating a “HODL” phase where holders are waiting for fresh demand to drive prices higher.

Bitcoin (BTC) is flashing early signs of a strong rally, but the price chart is not drawing attention. Onchain data shows a “demand generation” pattern similar to the accumulation phases seen after the Terra/LUNA and FTX collapse, and both marked major cycle bottoms.

Bitcoin researcher Axel Adler Jr. said that the 30-day moving average of stablecoin inflows has dipped into negative territory, forming the same “blue zones” previously seen in 2022. This suggests participants are not ready to sell, signaling a return of meaningful demand amid suppressed volatility. Adler said,

“If inflows remain at or surpass levels seen post-LUNA and FTX, it would strongly signal the launchpad of the next Bitcoin rally.”

Cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin Price, Markets, Cryptocurrency Exchange, Price Analysis, Market Analysis, Whale
Difference in Liquidity from Bitcoin inflows and stablecoin inflows. Source: Axel Adler Jr.

Bitcoin network activity signals HODL dominance

BTC price is strong above $100,000, but the New UTXO 30-day SMA, a proxy for new network activity, remains near 570,000. That’s roughly 40% lower activity than when BTC was trading between $60,000–$70,000 and far from the 850,000–1 million range that supported the 2024 bull run.

This divergence suggests that long-term holders are locking up coins, not moving them, creating a supply squeeze scenario where price could rapidly rise if new demand kicks in. A move past 700,000 on the New UTXO metric would signal that fresh participants are entering. If it climbs beyond 850,000, it could confirm the start of a full-blown retail and institutional-driven bull phase.

Cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin Price, Markets, Cryptocurrency Exchange, Price Analysis, Market Analysis, Whale
Bitcoin New UTXO. Source: Axel Adler Jr.

The Exchange Flow Multiple supports this setup, tracking short-term to long-term BTC inflows, which has dropped to a zone that historically marks a seller exhaustion phase where diminished sell-side liquidity sparks upside price momentum.

Meanwhile, whales appear to be mobilizing. Large transactions now comprise 96% of all exchange flows, a level historically associated with major price expansions. These entities may position coins for strategic redistribution, often timed with price spikes.

Related: Record Q2, monthly close next? 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week

BTC risk in demand-supply imbalance persists

Despite these bullish structural signals, short-term risks remain. The Apparent Demand metric for 30 days has returned negative for the first time in two months, indicating that new buyer demand isn’t strong enough to absorb selling pressure from miners and some long-term holders (LTHs). This imbalance raises the risk of a near-term price correction.

Cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin Price, Markets, Cryptocurrency Exchange, Price Analysis, Market Analysis, Whale
Bitcoin Apparent Demand. Source: CryptoQuant

In this mixed environment characterized by HODLing, seller exhaustion, and early whale activity, Bitcoin’s next move hinges on whether fresh demand can outpace residual selling. A short-term correction could precede the broader uptrend if momentum stalls near key resistance levels at $110,000.

Related: Bitcoin’s new all-time high now ‘inevitable’ as BTC price eyes liquidity at $109K

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

]]> https://earlybirdsinvest.com/bitcoin-demand-generation-phase-mirrors-2022-market-bottom-are-new-highs-incoming/feed/ 0 45032 Anchorage to Phase Out USDC, Agora USD Citing Risks, Stirring Fierce Backlash https://earlybirdsinvest.com/anchorage-to-phase-out-usdc-agora-usd-citing-risks-stirring-fierce-backlash/ https://earlybirdsinvest.com/anchorage-to-phase-out-usdc-agora-usd-citing-risks-stirring-fierce-backlash/#respond Sun, 29 Jun 2025 14:07:20 +0000 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/anchorage-to-phase-out-usdc-agora-usd-citing-risks-stirring-fierce-backlash/

Anchorage Digital, a crypto custodian and federally chartered bank, said it will start phasing out and direct institutional clients to convert USDC

and other stablecoins into rival token Global Dollar (USDG) in a sweeping move that drew criticism from industry players.

The firm released a “Stablecoin Safety Matrix” that ranks stablecoins based on regulatory oversight and reserve asset management on Tuesday.

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Circle-issued USDC, which is the second-largest stablecoin with a $61 billion supply and is popular among institutions, was deemed no longer suitable under Anchorage’s security framework. Two other, smaller tokens, Agora USD (AUSD) and Usual USD (USD0), were also slated for removal. Stablecoins are cryptocurrencies with their prices tied to an external asset, predominantly to the U.S. dollar.

“Following our Stablecoin Safety Matrix, USDC, AUSD, and USD0 no longer satisfy Anchorage Digital’s internal criteria for long-term resilience,” Rachel Anderika, head of global operations at Anchorage, said in a statement justifying the decision. “Specifically, we identified elevated concentration risks associated with their issuer structures — something we believe institutions should carefully evaluate.”

“Anchorage Digital is focused on supporting stablecoins that demonstrate strong transparency, independence, security, and alignment with future regulatory expectations,” she added.

Stablecoin race heats up

The move came at a time when competition in the stablecoin market is heating up with global banks, payments firms and crypto companies jockeying for position in the rapidly-growing sector.

The U.S. Senate recently passed the GENIUS Act that aims to enact clear rules for the asset class and issuers, which could open the gates for broader adoption. On Friday, White House crypto czar David Sacks suggested that the bill may become law as soon as next month, pending passage in the House of Representatives.

Reports by Citi and Standard Chartered reports projected the asset class to grow from the current $250 billion to trillions through the next few years. Circle (CRCL), the company behind the USDC token, recently went public and skyrocketed in valuation.

Anchorage gave USDC a score of 2 out of 5 for regulatory oversight and reserve management. The report said there was “no substantive prudential oversight” and that Circle had a large — about 15% — amount of its reserves held in cash at banks. Notably, USDC depegged temporarily in March 2023 when partner bank Silicon Valley Bank went under. Tether’s USDT, the world’s largest stablecoin, had a higher rating with Anchorage pointing to it being regulated in El Salvador.

S&P Ratings rated USDC “strong,” its second-best rating in its stablecoin stability assessment. Bluechip, a crypto-native stablecoin rating firm, gave USDC a B+ rating in its economic safety rating.

Industry leaders push back

Anchorage’s decision met with fierce pushback.

Nick Van Eck, whose firm Agora issues AUSD, accused Anchorage of misrepresenting facts about his stablecoin and failing to disclose its commercial interest in Global Dollar. USDG is issued by Paxos and is backed by a consortium of firms that share the income from the reserve assets backing the token. Anchorage is a founding partner in that consortium.

“If Anchorage had just delisted USDC and AUSD to prioritize the stablecoins that they have an economic interest in, I would understand it as a business decision,” he said in an X post. “But attempting to delegitimize AUSD and USDC for ‘security concerns,’ while knowingly publishing false information, is unserious and bizarre.”

“Never seen such an obvious hit piece be so poorly executed,” said Viktor Bunin, protocol specialist at digital asset exchange Coinbase. Coinbase jointly launched USDC with Circle in 2018, and shared revenue from the reserve assets backing the token.

Jan Van Eck, father of Nick Van Eck and CEO of asset manager Van Eck, which manages AUSD’s backing assets, also questioned the risk assessment.

“If you need a laugh, check out this ‘safety’ matrix before Anchorage pulls it down. According to the matrix, Circle’s USDC (world’s second largest stablecoin) and AUSD (backed 100% by treasuries) have reserve issues,” he posted on X. “Oh, and by the way, AUSD’s reserve manager is regulated by umpteen different regulators.”

Circle, in a statement sent to CoinDesk, defended the firm’s “long-standing compliance record” and “strong reputation as an industry leader.”

“We comply with the prevailing U.S. regulatory standards that apply to leading fintech and payments firms, and we were the first stablecoin issuer to achieve full compliance with the European Union’s landmark crypto law,” a Circle spokesperson said. “USDC is 100% backed by fiat-denominated reserves and has robust primary liquidity through a well-developed network of banks, representing what we view as the highest levels of transparency, safety, and operational resiliency in our industry.”

Support came for Circle and Agora outside of the two stablecoins’ camp.

“For the record, BitGo is not dropping USDC support,” said Chen Fang, chief revenue officer at crypto custodian BitGo.

“Agora and Circle are long-standing partners of ours, and our customers count on safe, transparent rails for USD settlement,” said Joshua Lim, co-head of markets at crypto prime broker FalconX, adding that his company “is ready to support clients using AUSD and USDC.”

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