Bitcoin’s mining math hit a fresh high this week as the network’s difficulty climbed to a new all-time peak of 135 trillion. Miners now need more computing work than ever to win a block, while the overall hashpower available to the network has slipped from its summer peak.

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Mining Difficulty Reaches New High

According to on-chain data, network hashrate fell to 967 billion hashes per second after topping 1 trillion hashes per second on August 4. That gap — rising difficulty paired with a lower hashrate — tightens margins for miners.

Reports have disclosed that higher difficulty makes mining more costly, and the pressure is felt most by smaller operations that run on narrow profit margins.

Big miners have room to scale. Smaller teams do not. Costs for electricity, machines and maintenance add up fast. The situation raises concern about concentration. As the cost to operate rises, larger pools and firms are better positioned to absorb the pain and keep hashing.

Solo Miners Still Score Big

Despite those headwinds, Three solo miners managed to land blocks in July and August, proving the system still hands out rewards to individuals now and then. Reports show the block subsidy is 3.125 BTC per block. On July three, a solo miner found block 903,883 and took home just under $350,000 in subsidy plus fees.

Another solo miner added block 907,283 on July 26, claiming over $373,000 when prices at the time were used to value the reward. On August 17, block 910,440 was mined by a solo operator, yielding roughly $373,000 in subsidy and fees.

Those payouts highlight two facts. First, solo success is rare but possible. Second, occasional large rewards do not erase the steady advantage of scale. Pools still smooth earnings for participants, and many miners use them to avoid long dry spells.

Seasonality And Market Patterns

Meanwhile, September has a poor historical record for Bitcoin, with an average return of -3.77% across 12 years beginning in 2013, researchers say.

Bitcoin endured six straight losing Septembers from 2017 through 2022. The streak reversed in 2023, and 2024 closed out as the best September on record at +7.29%.

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What This Means Now

In short, the network’s math is becoming tougher at the same time mining capacity dipped slightly. That creates tighter margins and fuels debate over centralization as scale matters more.

Yet the ecosystem still shows variety: solo miners can and do win blocks, and market history gives investors a mixed picture where seasonal trends matter but do not guarantee outcomes.

For now, miners and market watchers alike will be tracking difficulty, hashrate and price swings as the fall unfolds.

Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView

Bitcoin Decay Channel Hints At $200K–$290K Top, Tips Cycle To Extend To 2026

In an X post on September 5, a Bitcoin researcher with the X username Sminston With shares some important data from the Bitcoin Decay Channel on a potential peak price for the current market cycle.

For context, the Bitcoin Decay Channel is a long-term logarithmic regression model that attempts to map Bitcoin’s price cycles, specifically its historical peaks and bottoms, within statistically derived boundaries. This pricing model shows that while Bitcoin follows boom-and-bust patterns, its growth rate decays over time as each cycle delivers smaller percentage gains than the last.

Notably, data from the Bitcoin Decay channel chart shows the premier cryptocurrency is steadily climbing within the 0.05 quantile support and upper bound resistance lines, with oscillations that mark historical overheated zones. The embedded oscillator suggests BTC is not yet at a euphoric peak, leaving room for further upside before a long-term top forms.

Based on more data, Sminston With explains that the present Bitcoin market cycle could see a price top between late 2025 and late 2026. If Bitcoin peaks in December 2025, the price range would sit between $205,000 and $230,000.  However, should the cycle extend into 2026, projections rise incrementally, i.e. $208,000-$235,000 by Jan 2026, $219,000–$250,000 by April 2026, $230,000-$265,000 by July 2026, $243,000-$282,000 by October 2026, and as high as $250,000–$292,000 by year-end 2026.

Regardless of which price top scenario, the Bitcoin Decay Channel presents a potential peak zone between $205,000 and $292,000 within the next 12-15 months. This presents a possible price gain of 86% in the base case and 167% in a bull case scenario.

Bitcoin Price Outlook

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $110,900, reflecting a 0.45% price increase in the past day. Meanwhile, weekly gains are now up by 2.89% showing a moderate recovery. Interestingly, Coincodex analysts are predicting the premier cryptocurrency to maintain this rebound, rising to $121,276 in five days. With a market cap of $2.2 trillion, Bitcoin remains the largest currency and fifth largest in the world. 

This is a daily analysis by CoinDesk analyst and Chartered Market Technician Omkar Godbole.

Bitcoin: Powell brings bearish lower high

Bitcoin BTC$111,747.10 has retraced to levels last seen before Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s dovish remarks on Friday, which set expectations for a potential rate cut in September.

At the time of writing, BTC is trading just above $112,000, having peaked at around $117,440 on Friday. Technical scrutiny of the daily chart reveals that the pullback from the $117,000 peak has established a lower high in close proximity to the resistance line defined by the previous bullish trendline originating from the April lows.

This lower high reinforces the prior trendline breakdown, signaling a continuation of bearish price action. Complementing this observation, the Guppy Multiple Moving Average (GMMA) indicator is poised to confirm a bearish momentum shift, highlighted by the imminent crossover of the short-term exponential moving averages (white band) below the longer-term averages (red band).

On the weekly chart, the MACD histogram has initiated the new trading week with a sub-zero reading, highlighting the potential acceleration of downward momentum.

In summary, what do you say about a market that not only resists a sustainable rally on the back of favorable news – such as Powell’s speech – but also maintains a series of bearish technical patterns? I’ll leave it to the readers’ discretion.

Key technical support lies at the $110,756 level, corresponding to the lower boundary of the Ichimoku cloud, with a more substantial support zone marked by the 200-day simple moving average near $100,000. Conversely, reclaiming Friday’s high of $117,440 is essential to resurrect the bullish case.

• Support: $110,756, $100,887, $100,000.
• Resistance: $117,440, $120,000, $122,056.

Ether: Loss of upward momentum

Ether (ETH) printed a doji candle with a prominent upper wick on Sunday, signaling market indecision at record highs. This candlestick pattern forms when the opening and closing prices converge, reflecting a stalemate between buyers and sellers.

However, the relatively long upper shadow, in this case, means that the bull’s attempts to push prices higher faced significant pushback from bears, who managed to pull the price back down before the close.

While the doji itself does not guarantee a reversal, it highlights uncertainty and a possible loss of upward momentum. It warrants caution as it often precedes a potential reversal or a consolidation phase where the market awaits further catalysts for direction.

A pullback appears likely, as the 14-day relative strength index continued to print lower highs over the weekend, contradicting the new price high. The so-called bearish divergence indicates a loss of upward momentum and often yields corrections.

Interestingly, ether traded 3% lower on the day at $4,624 at press time, with charts indicating support at $4,065, the level from which ETH turned higher on August 20.

• Support: $4,065, $4,000, $3,805 (the 50-day SMA).
• Resistance: $5,000, record highs.

Read more: Bitcoin Reverses Powell Spike With a Flash Crash as Options Market Signals Jitters Ahead

Crypto analyst and trader Ali Martinez, known on the X social media network as @ali_charts, has spotted that the Ethereum network has managed to reach the highest point in an important metric this year.

It happened despite the ETH price having declined to the $3,500 level lately.

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Ethereum active addresses hit yearly high

Martinez shared a Santiment chart, which shows a giant rise in ETH daily active addresses in July. The surge has reached 841,100 addresses, which is the highest value this year, according to Ali.

This surge happened just before the ETH price dropped from the $3,875 level to $3,540, where it is trading right now. The decline constituted almost 10%. Ethereum crashed following Bitcoin, which reacted to the Fed Chair Powell announcing that interest rates are so far to remain unchanged.

Ethereum ETFs absorb 8,183 ETH

Data shared by the X analytics account Lookonchain shows that on Aug. 1, 10 spot Ethereum ETFs scooped up a total of 8,183 ETH worth $29.83 million. BlackRock’s ETHA scooped up the largest part, 4,841 ETH valued at $17.65 million. Now, it holds 3,029,059 ETH worth $11.04 billion; 224,833 ETH is ETHA’s total inflows this week, according to Lookonchain.

Grayscale Ethereum Trust took in 1,989 ETH ($6,988,765), Fidelity Ethereum Fund sucked in 1,498 ETH ($5,263,534).

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Anas Hassan

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Anas is a crypto native journalist and SEO writer with over five years of writing experience covering blockchain, crypto, DeFi, and emerging tech.

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July 20, 2025

Bitcoin’s recent peak at $123,100 has triggered warnings of a potential local top as on-chain metrics signal overextension.

The cryptocurrency quickly retraced 6% to around $115,700 after hitting the all-time high, with advanced NVT signals crossing above historical red deviation bands that typically coincide with cycle peaks.

The current bull market’s largest pullback remains only 23.48%, well below previous cycle corrections of 30-80%, indicating the underlying trend structure remains healthy despite short-term overextension signals.

Technical analysis reveals that Bitcoin is consolidating within a symmetrical triangle pattern, with support between $116,000 and $117,000 and descending resistance around $120,000.

Triangle Consolidation Tests $125,000 Breakout

Bitcoin’s 4-hour chart indicates consolidation within a symmetrical triangle pattern, with the apex approaching around $117,837.

The formation creates compression between descending resistance and ascending support at $116,000-$117,000, building energy for eventual directional resolution.

This coiling effect typically precedes a significant expansion of volatility.

A bullish breakout above the red trendline would likely trigger a move toward $125,000, representing approximately a 6% upside from current levels.

Conversely, a breakdown below the green support level could drive prices toward $111,000, marking a roughly 6% downside risk.

The symmetrical nature suggests neither bulls nor bears have gained decisive control.

Multiple-layered support zones provide cushioning for potential declines, with institutional buying historically emerging at these levels.

The eventual breakout direction becomes crucial for determining near-term momentum and validating either continuation or correction scenarios.

Global Liquidity Cycle Enters Distribution Phase

According to Merlijn The Trader, Bitcoin’s correlation with the global M2 money supply reveals that the cryptocurrency has transitioned into “Distribution” territory from its previous “Accumulation” and “Manipulation” phases.

This macro framework suggests that while liquidity expansion continues supporting Bitcoin’s advance, explosive gains may become more measured and volatile as the cycle matures.

Complex Fibonacci analysis has also projected Bitcoin’s cycle peak timing toward October, suggesting a more extended timeline than immediate parabolic acceleration.

The $133,665 – $151,539 resistance zone represents ultimate targets, but the path involves multiple consolidation phases rather than linear advance.

Current levels around $117,000-$118,000 correspond to substantial volume clusters where institutional accumulation and distribution have occurred.

This technical congestion creates multiple layers of support and resistance that require patience to navigate effectively during the Distribution phase.

Best Wallet: Final Opportunity to Secure $BEST Tokens

Best Wallet’s $BEST token presale is approaching its final phase, offering one last chance for investors to secure positions before the allocation is sold out permanently.

The token offers reduced fees, early access to presales, and staking rewards, which are perks rare in projects.

$BEST token holders unlock multiple revenue streams through the expanding ecosystem.

Reduced trading fees and priority access to new project launches become increasingly valuable as Bitcoin approaches cycle peaks and altcoin opportunities multiply.

The token’s utility extends beyond basic wallet functions. Best Wallet’s version 2.5.1 introduced full Bitcoin support alongside 60+ blockchain compatibility, providing secure non-custodial storage during uncertain market periods.

Integration with the Rubic exchange aggregator enables optimal swap rates across 200+ DEXs, which is essential for portfolio rebalancing as Bitcoin tests key resistance levels.

The platform’s upcoming crypto-backed debit cards and advanced trading tools position users for the next phase of the cycle.

With Bitcoin potentially reaching $125,000+ or facing $111,000 correction risks, having exposure to both secure storage infrastructure and the underlying $BEST token creates diversified opportunities.

The presale’s limited remaining allocation and approaching completion create a final window for early adopter advantages.

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Sujha Sundararajan

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Sujha has been recognised as Women In Crypto 2024 by BeInCrypto for her leadership in crypto journalism.

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July 16, 2025

A CryptoQuant analyst has recently tweeted that Bitcoin has not yet reached its peak range. The ‘Peak Signal,’ which typically appears at major market tops, hasn’t been observed this time, he added.

‘Peak signal’ refers to the metric indicators that say the market is overheated and a corrective phase is approaching.

Analyst AxelAdlerJr said in a thread that Peak Signal appears when “the combined normalized Market to Realized Price Index and 30 day/ 365 day Value Days Destroyed ratio score reaches or exceeds 1.”

The world’s largest crypto rallied past $122,000 on Monday, driven by renewed institutional interest, and favourable policy. However, it retracted and is now trading at $118,231 at press time.

Alexander Zahnd, interim CEO of Zilliqa, calls it a signal that crypto has entered a new phase, where “institutional confidence is driving consistent demand.” He emphasized the quality of the rally this time.

“It’s spot-driven, not built on leverage, and it’s unfolding in a relatively calm market,” he told Cryptonews. “That points to a more mature and resilient structure compared to previous cycles.”

Bitcoin Could Eventually Hit $130K if Momentum Holds

According to Zahnd, Bitcoin’s next bullish key level could be $123,200, with room to push toward $126,500 and eventually $130,000, provided, momentum holds.

However, on the downside, BTC would plunge toward $115,000 or $112,000, which could “still be healthy in the broader trend,” he added.

“At a macro level, concerns about rising debt, persistent inflation, and uncertainty in monetary policy are all reinforcing the idea of Bitcoin as a long-term store of value. That dynamic isn’t going away anytime soon.”

Only Broader Institutional Participation Can Propel BTC to $150K Swiftly

Andrejs Balans, risk manager of EU-based fintech platform YouHodler, said that inflows alone will not help propel Bitcoin to $150,000 swiftly.

A broader shift in institutional sentiment could be a major catalyst to drive BTC prices up, Balans told Cryptonews.

Though institutional exposure has increased through ETFs and custody services, senior banking executives have reiterated their cautious stance, describing crypto as an area of interest but not yet a strategic priority.

“Without a broad shift in institutional sentiment, it is unlikely that inflows alone will propel Bitcoin to $150,000 swiftly.”

A widely followed crypto analyst believes Bitcoin’s (BTC) bull market is just weeks away from coming to an end.

The analyst pseudonymously known as Rekt Capital tells his 550,400 subscribers on the social media platform X that the Bitcoin bull market could end in two or three months if history repeats itself.

According to the pseudonymous analyst, the Bitcoin bull market typically hits the peak around 518 to 546 days after the halving, suggesting it could occur between mid-September and mid-October. The fourth Bitcoin halving took place in April 2024.

On what is in store for Bitcoin’s price over the coming weeks and months, the widely followed analyst says,

“If Bitcoin really does have two to three months left in its Bull Market…

Then this current period truly is the calm before the storm.”

Bitcoin is trading at $109,386 at time of writing.

Rekt Capital further says that even if the bull market extends beyond October, trying to capture the potential gains would be a high-risk and low-reward endeavor.

“The risk versus reward of that upside will likely not be worth heavy participation.

Is it worth capturing an additional +20 – 30% uptrend while risking a -60 to -70% Bear Market?”

On altcoins, the widely followed analyst says they could enjoy a rally once Bitcoin rises above the current all-time high of just under $112,000.

“When Bitcoin broke out into Price Discovery Uptrend 1 in November 2024…

Altcoins rallied exponentially during that time.

Altcoins would likely run once Bitcoin breaks out into Price Discovery Uptrend 2.”

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Disclaimer: Opinions expressed at The Daily Hodl are not investment advice. Investors should do their due diligence before making any high-risk investments in Bitcoin, cryptocurrency or digital assets. Please be advised that your transfers and trades are at your own risk, and any losses you may incur are your responsibility. The Daily Hodl does not recommend the buying or selling of any cryptocurrencies or digital assets, nor is The Daily Hodl an investment advisor. Please note that The Daily Hodl participates in affiliate marketing.

US stock futures are at record highs as the country’s largest markets are nearing their peaks, which could help propel Bitcoin to reach another all-time high, according to analysts. 

S&P 500 futures entered new all-time high territory on Thursday with the index tapping 6,145 points, surpassing February’s peak. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite futures also hit a peak at 20,180 around the same time. 

The S&P 500 has gained 23% since its April 8 crash as trade tariff shocks ease and a ceasefire between Israel and Iran appears to hold.

Stock futures are derivative contracts where traders agree to buy or sell a specific stock index, such as the S&P 500, at a set price at a future expiration date. They trade overnight and before markets open, often providing insight and signals on how stocks might open the following day. 

The rally came as investors digested new reasons to believe the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates as early as July, Yahoo Finance reported.

Will Bitcoin follow stock market gains? 

Analysts have been weighing in on the prospect of Bitcoin (BTC) following stocks to a new all-time high. 

“US stock futures nearing all-time highs, fueled by geopolitical easing and Fed rate-cut expectations, are bolstering investor risk appetite as Bitcoin’s recent rebound increased speculation of a new record high in the near future,” Nick Ruck, director at LVRG Research, told Cointelegraph. 

Related: Coinbase stock ‘going vertical’ as it hits new closing high

He added that sustained equity momentum and institutional inflows “could propel BTC past its $109,000 resistance into a new price discovery phase if the Fed rate cut happens “in the coming months.”

Bitcoin ripe for all-time highs

Jeff Mei, chief operations officer at crypto exchange BTSE, told Cointelegraph that “conditions are ripe for Bitcoin to surpass its previous all-time high of about $112,000, especially given that the Iran-Israel conflict seems to be over for the time being.” 

Meanwhile, BitMEX founder Arthur Hayes posted to X on Thursday that Bitcoin all-time highs “are coming,” and pointed to the passage of stablecoin regulations in the US and the easing tensions in the Middle East.

Bitcoin cools from resistance 

Bitcoin has failed to break resistance above $108,000 at least three times this week and has declined from its last attempt on Thursday to trade at $107,400.

10x Research head of research Markus Thielen told Cointelegraph that a “notable dovish shift is emerging” among Fed leadership, but the market remains constrained.

“Many traders have written covered calls against their BTC holdings, which is suppressing both price momentum and volatility.”

BTC struggles at $108,000 resistance. Source: TradingView

The Fed on Friday will release its preferred inflation gauge, called the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report, which could induce more market volatility. 

Magazine: North Korea crypto hackers tap ChatGPT, Malaysia road money siphoned: Asia Express

]]> https://earlybirdsinvest.com/us-futures-hit-record-high-setting-bitcoin-up-for-new-peak-analysts/feed/ 0 44360 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/bitfinex-alpha-actual-purchasing-power-drives-bitcoin-to-a-new-peak/ https://earlybirdsinvest.com/bitfinex-alpha-actual-purchasing-power-drives-bitcoin-to-a-new-peak/#respond Mon, 26 May 2025 02:38:03 +0000 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/bitfinex-alpha-actual-purchasing-power-drives-bitcoin-to-a-new-peak/

May 21st Bitfinex alpha | Actual purchasing power drives Bitcoin to a new peak

Bitcoin has been steadily increasing since it regained its $92,000 bottom in late April, and continues to show incredible durability and invincible structural strength.

The recent price rise has been a spot market, with strong breakthroughs relaxing after a short, clear stage. This indicates that the accumulation of healthy and potential needs is very solid, rather than being driven by excessive speculative factors. Data on accumulated delta mass (CVD) of large floors still maintains a positive level, making sure they dominate this race rather than leveraging real buyers-people.

Meanwhile, the derivatives market is in a responsive state, with open volatility (OI) indicating that semi-semi-climate pressure and liquidation is a transitional stage that helps clean up the dirty forms of the market. As a result, the current platform will become cleaner and the momentum supported by capital inflows instead of temporary heat generation.

As Bitcoin’s prices have been adjusted slightly after reaching record highs, the price difference (premium) in the spot market is still very high, and current price action actions could be simply a period of strength before explosion. Small adjustments may still occur, but the larger trends still leaning towards positive.

Bitcoin is flying high, but as inflation gradually decreases, warning signs continue to manifest themselves in the US economy, but deeper structural risks begin to emerge. The Consumer Price Index – CPI) rose only 0.2% compared to the previous month and 2.3% compared to last year. This is the lowest increase since the beginning of 2021.

Lower food prices have helped ease pressure from housing costs, but prospects remain ambiguous due to tax instability and trade policies. The US and China have reached a temporary ceasefire agreement, but a massive import tax rate still exists, with new taxes likely in July. These unpopular trade tensions pose a major challenge for both business and policy.

At the same time, financial pressure is high at home. Fed New York data shows an increase in credit debt rates and student loans over 90 days, drawing a pessimistic picture of personal financial situations. When the tariff effects began biting, they drooped along with the risk of inflation, but a combination of price expansion and escalation — also known as male dogs — could put the Federal Reserve in a difficult position.

The cost of core and housing services remains high at the moment, and the Fed may remain cautious. However, as economic pressures increase, flexibility and vigilance will be required in the coming months.

The markets sometimes flicker, legal regulations are still a long story, accepting bitcoin in the business world, and organizations are still developing strongly. Abu Dhabi’s Mubadara Investment Fund strengthened its holdings of BlackRock’s Bitcoin Spot ETF (IBIT) stock in the first quarter of 2025, indicating a temporary decline in its long-term belief in IBIT’s market value. Since its launch in January 2024, IBIT has led the US ETF spot market, attracting more than $45.5 billion in cash flow and managing a total of $65.4 billion in assets.

In Latin America, Brazil’s Fintech Melluse became the first public company in the region to apply the Bitcoin Reserve Strategy. After purchasing 274.52 BTC worth $28.4 million, the total number of Bitcoins I currently own is over 320 BTC. The move received strong support from shareholders, boosting the company’s stock price and proved investor support for its crypto-based financial strategy.

However, the legal framework remains a tough battle. US judges have rejected general offers between the Secretariat (the Securities Commission and the transaction), rippled over to reduce penalties and remove restrictions. The decision temporarily blocked a potential agreement in a groundbreaking case that could shape the future of US crypto regulations. All these events reflect both the motivations and challenges that crypto faces its journey into the global financial system.

Don’t forget to follow the bitfinex Vietnam Community telegram, Twitter & Facebook To update articles, information and events as soon as possible!

]]> https://earlybirdsinvest.com/bitfinex-alpha-actual-purchasing-power-drives-bitcoin-to-a-new-peak/feed/ 0 38325 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/bitcoin-cycle-peak-coming-next-year-says-crypto-analyst-jason-pizzino-here-are-his-targets/ https://earlybirdsinvest.com/bitcoin-cycle-peak-coming-next-year-says-crypto-analyst-jason-pizzino-here-are-his-targets/#respond Sat, 17 May 2025 10:04:05 +0000 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/bitcoin-cycle-peak-coming-next-year-says-crypto-analyst-jason-pizzino-here-are-his-targets/

Cryptocurrency analyst and trader Jason Pizzino is leaning bullish on Bitcoin (BTC) over the short to medium term.

In a new strategy session, Pizzino tells his 351,000 YouTube subscribers that traditional assets such as stocks and real estate are in the correction phase of the 18-year property cycle theory popularized by land economist Fred Harrison.

The theory states that the property market rotates between a boom phase that lasts for 14 years and a bust period that lasts four years.

According to Pizzino, Bitcoin could precede the traditional assets in undergoing a major market correction.

“I wouldn’t expect Bitcoin to peak at the same time that the stock market does or even at the same time that the real estate and the economy peaks. And if that peak is due sometime around 2026… let’s call it the first half of 2026…

…so being conservative, I would look for a peak in Bitcoin before that happens. So before the peak sometime in the first half of 2026. If we’re lucky, maybe this thing peaks in the first half, maybe quarter one.”

According to the crypto analyst, Bitcoin is, however, primed to reach a new all-time high before the major market correction occurs.

“If BTC is able to break through this level [around $106,000], then my next target of course, you’ve got the highs here around $108,000 to $109,000… but the 75% of our swing move [from around $74,000] here takes us out to $111,000.

Now if this is going to do a repeat of this 100%, that’ll take you to $117,000…”

Bitcoin is trading at $103,912 at time of writing, down by nearly 5% from the all-time high of just under $109,000 reached in January.

?

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