Bitcoin is trading around $111,000 after several days of losing ground below its all-time high of $124,500. Bulls have managed to keep the price above the key $110,000 support, but momentum remains weak as attempts to push higher continue to fail. Some analysts warn of a deeper correction ahead if buyers cannot step in with stronger conviction.

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Top analyst Axel Adler shared new insights, pointing to the behavior of Bitcoin’s annual Adjusted MVRV. Currently, the metric has pressed against the 1.0 zone, meaning the short-term average (30-day) is almost identical to the longer-term average (365-day). In practice, this shows that the market is in a balancing phase: recent profit-taking and volatility are being absorbed by the longer-term growth trend, keeping the overall structure neutral.

Historically, this 1.0 level has often represented a pause within bullish cycles rather than the end of them. It signals that the market is digesting recent gains as short-term holders hand coins to longer-term investors. Whether Bitcoin breaks down to test lower demand zones or stabilizes before another leg higher will likely be decided in the coming weeks, as traders closely watch this critical support zone.

Bitcoin Adjusted MVRV Signals Pause, Not Reversal

According to Adler, Bitcoin’s annual Adjusted MVRV is currently pressed right at the 1.0 zone, and the dynamics behind it tell an important story. The annual basis remains positive, and its curve looks largely horizontal because two opposing forces are offsetting each other. On the one hand, the 30-day metric has cooled significantly as volatility eased and profit-taking slowed after the latest push to all-time highs. On the other, the heavier 365-day average still reflects the gains of past months, holding up the broader trend.

This synchronization between numerator and denominator compresses the difference, keeping the basis line steady rather than sliding downward or accelerating upward. In simple terms, the market is digesting the previous rally rather than breaking down.

Adler stresses that this situation at the 1.0 zone should not be mistaken for the end of a cycle. Instead, it represents a pause within an ongoing bullish structure. As long as the annual basis does not reverse downward, the market is essentially redistributing coins from short-term speculators into the hands of more patient holders. There are no strong signs of capitulation, only consolidation.

Over the next couple of weeks, the reaction at 1.0 will be critical. Whether Bitcoin holds firm and builds momentum or slips toward deeper corrections will define the next phase. For now, Adler sees this as more a matter of time and balance than a warning of a cycle-ending reversal.

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BTC Testing Support Around Pivotal Level

Bitcoin continues to consolidate after a sharp retrace from its all-time high of $124K, now trading near $110,823. The daily chart shows BTC struggling to hold above the $110K support zone, which has become a key battleground for bulls and bears.

The 50-day SMA is trending around $116,600, while the 100-day SMA is near $111,600—levels that are now acting as resistance. Meanwhile, the 200-day SMA sits lower at approximately $101,000, marking the deeper structural support. A decisive loss of the $110K zone could accelerate selling pressure, potentially leading Bitcoin to test the 100K–107K support range, a critical confluence highlighted by analysts due to the alignment with the STH Realized Price.

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On the upside, Bitcoin must reclaim the $115K–$117K region to shift momentum back in favor of bulls. Failure to do so risks further consolidation and market uncertainty. The rejection at the $123K level last week highlighted strong overhead resistance, with sellers stepping in aggressively.

Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView

Analysis of the trends and quantities of optimism (PO)

Driving into this trend, Crypto Man MAB observed that short-term trends in assets are bearish. Over the past 24 hours, the OP price has dropped from its high to a low of $0.564 to a $0.483 price, forming a downward trajectory. He noted that the long-term outlook reinforces this sentiment by clearly signaling the sudden 71.02% decline in assets over the past 180 days, and that sustained downward pressure.

Turning attention to volume behavior, Crypto Man MAB highlighted the importance of recent spikes in OP trading volumes, particularly during a sudden price drop. He explained that this volume increase often indicates an increase in market participation, which is likely to be driven by panic sales or stop triggers. This surge in volume during the dip suggests that the bear is still active and in control.

In his analysis, Crypto Man Mab further stated that volume SMAs reflect a regular surge, with the latest peaks lined up along the downward movement of prices. This consistency between rising volume and lower prices often reflects strong bearish feelings, reinforcing the downward pressure seen on the charts.

Support, resistance, and indicators

Looking at the support and resistance levels of the OP, analysts point out that the current price is trading near $0.483. This zone serves as a potential support if sales pressure starts to slow down, providing temporary stabilization or bounce opportunities. However, sustained breaks below this level could present an even more downside in the short term.

Conversely, the closest resistance is around $0.564, which represents a height of 24 hours. If prices attempt to recover, this level will likely serve as the first barrier to overcome. The successful move above can indicate emotional improvement, but further confirmation is required to keep short-term bias away from bearishness.

Looking at the patterns on the charts, recent candlesticks show a mix of bullish and bearish activities, while red candles are more dominant. This pattern strengthens the downward momentum ongoing, indicating that the seller is still in control. The overall tone remains cautious despite potential pockets of support until there is a visible shift in momentum.

The following is a guest post and opinion from Gracy Chen, CEO of Bitget.

There was a time not too long ago when the pulse of the crypto market could be measured not only by candlestick charts but by the waitlists at luxury watch boutiques. During the 2020–2022 bull cycle, the correlation between Bitcoin and high-end collectibles — especially steel sports watches from brands like Rolex and Patek Philippe — was so strong, it practically became a meme of its own. When Bitcoin hit $69,000, the Nautilus 5711 traded for over $240,000 on secondary markets. WatchCharts and Bitcoin price curves looked eerily similar, just with a lag.

At that time, crypto wealth creation was rapid, exuberant, and visible. Traders were turning six-figure gains into grails, “Lambo” dreams were fueling Twitter threads, and retail participation was at an all-time high. It was the golden age of the flex economy — where wealth was on-chain and status was worn on the wrist.

But as we stand in mid-2025, Bitcoin has hit another all-time high, and the story is remarkably different.

Despite BTC’s climb, prices for luxury watches and other goods have not followed. Platforms like WatchCharts show that the luxury watch index has remained largely flat since late 2023. Automotive luxury stocks, tracked by indices like CLTBAUTOS, are showing stagnation or minor pullbacks. Even equities more broadly, affected by rate uncertainty and macro headwinds, are not keeping up with Bitcoin’s recent growth rate.

Whether it’s due to increasing geopolitical uncertainty, inflationary pressures, or the slow normalization of digital assets in global portfolios, we are witnessing what I call the “great decoupling” — Bitcoin pulling away from luxury assets and speculative equities, and drawing closer to the behavioral patterns of traditional hedges.

So, what changed?

1. A Shift in Capital Profile

The players in crypto today are not the same as in 2021. The institutional influx we’re seeing — led by the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs in major jurisdictions like the U.S. and Hong Kong — is reshaping the investor base. These participants are not flipping JPEGs or scalping meme coins; they’re allocating capital from pension funds, family offices, and balance sheets.

We can also see evidence of this in crypto exchanges’ user behavior. Some exchange products, staking tools, and structured strategies are seeing increased capital allocation from these sources.. These are instruments designed not for rapid speculation, but for portfolio optimization. And the questions we get from users have shifted — it’s less about “What’s the next moonshot?” and more about “How do I diversify across CeFi and DeFi with risk-managed exposure?”

2. Market Maturity and the End of the Flex Trade

Bitcoin’s new role is no longer as a get-rich-quick ticket, but as a strategic asset with scarcity and security at its core. And when capital matures, so does its expression. Instead of Rolexes and Richard Milles, today’s crypto gains are increasingly going into multi-sig wallets, validator nodes, or ETF shares.

This is not to say luxury goods have lost their luster — they remain potent cultural and symbolic indicators. But the speculative froth has been wrung out. Watch dealers are no longer chasing crypto whales; they’re recalibrating to a different clientele. The speculative hangover from 2022 is still in the system, and today’s buyers are cautious. In this sense, Bitcoin is moving differently not just in price — but in purpose.

3. Macro Climate and Liquidity Constraints

Another factor behind this decoupling is macroeconomic conditions. Central banks are still navigating rate policy and inflation remains sticky. Liquidity is precious. In this climate, discretionary purchases — including high-end timepieces — take a backseat. Meanwhile, investors are increasingly drawn to assets that serve as long-term stores of value.

Bitcoin has earned its seat at that table.

Centralized exchanges must evolve in tandem. Centralized exchanges are no longer only trading platforms; they become launchpads for long-term strategy. That means better compliance, stronger custody infrastructure, and deeper integration with on-chain ecosystems like TON and others. Investments in these ecosystems are focused on driving mass adoption not through hype, but through utility.

4. Gold and Bitcoin: A New Alignment

The narrative of “digital gold” has been around for years, but now we’re seeing it in the data. The S&P/TSX Global Gold Index has moved more closely with BTC than ever before. When equities wobble, gold rallies — and lately, Bitcoin has started to behave similarly. This is a signal that crypto’s correlation matrix is changing. Bitcoin is starting to act not like a tech stock, but like a hedge.

It’s no longer just a risk-on bet; it’s increasingly viewed as a resilient allocation. This has significant implications for wealth managers, portfolio constructors, and yes — centralized exchanges.. As this new alignment takes shape, we must be prepared to offer the products and infrastructure that support it: from derivatives with tighter spreads to institutional custody solutions and staking mechanisms with real security.

The Coming Era of Responsible Growth

There’s a saying in markets: “When the narrative changes, the behavior follows.” What we’re seeing today is this narrative transformation toward a new era of responsible growth.. The decoupling of Bitcoin from luxury goods is another signal that crypto capital is growing up — and so must the industry’s trading and investment platforms.

As an industry, we must be committed to continuing to support strategic investments, foster mass adoption through smart integrations, and empower users to see digital assets not just as a short-term, speculative play — but as a long-term, viable asset class.

The “Rolex and Lambo” party may be over, but the future of finance is just beginning!

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Bitcoin is currently consolidating in a tight range between two major historical price levels—the all-time high (ATH) of $112,000 and the previous cycle’s peak at $103,600, set back in December. Despite heightened global tensions, particularly the escalating conflict between Israel and Iran, Bitcoin has held firm above key demand zones, signaling strong bullish intent even in an uncertain macro environment.

Market participants are closely watching this consolidation phase, as it may serve as the base for Bitcoin’s next expansive move. Bulls appear confident, with price action showing resilience against multiple dips, and strong buyer interest emerging near the $104K mark.

Supporting this bullish structure, fresh insights from CryptoQuant reveal a notable decline in CDD (Coin Days Destroyed) Momentum below the zero level over recent weeks. This metric, which compares the average CDD over the past 30 days to that of the previous month, highlights a reduction in spending activity by long-term holders. Historically, this kind of behavior reflects conviction among experienced investors and often signals the start of new accumulation phases.

Bitcoin Fundamentals Strengthen Amid Volatility And Uncertainty

Bitcoin continues to confuse both bulls and bears as it consolidates within a tight range, failing to produce a clear breakout or breakdown. While short-term traders remain on edge, Bitcoin’s fundamentals appear to be strengthening beneath the surface. Institutional adoption is on the rise, long-term supply is tightening, and the amount of BTC held on centralized exchanges continues to decline—a classic sign of increased investor confidence and long-term accumulation.

Meanwhile, global tensions and macroeconomic uncertainty remain elevated. The Middle East conflict between Israel and Iran has shaken markets, while fears of rising inflation and US Treasury yields add additional pressure. Furthermore, geopolitical shifts in global trade dynamics are fueling a volatile environment. Yet, Bitcoin appears to thrive in this chaos, reinforcing its narrative as an emerging store of value and alternative to traditional financial systems.

CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler shared key insights into this long-term strength by analyzing the Coin Days Destroyed (CDD) Momentum indicator. This metric measures how actively long-held coins are moving. A drop below zero typically signals reduced selling from long-term holders, indicating accumulation rather than distribution.

In recent weeks, CDD Momentum has shown a sustained decline below the zero level, aligning with a notable slowdown in older coin transfers. After multiple local peaks earlier in the year, this cooling-off period suggests that experienced investors are now stepping back from the market, not by exiting, but by choosing to hold.

This behavior historically precedes significant upside momentum. If Bitcoin maintains its current support levels and long-term holders continue to stay sidelined, it could set the stage for a powerful breakout and the beginning of a new leg up in the cycle.

BTC Price Analysis: Bulls Hold Support After Rejecting $109K

Bitcoin is currently trading around $106,127 after rejecting resistance near the $109,300 level, as shown in the 4-hour chart. The price attempted to reclaim that key resistance zone but failed to gain momentum, leading to a brief pullback. Despite the rejection, BTC is still holding above the 200-period moving average (red line) and the $106,000 mark, which now acts as short-term support.

Volume remains relatively stable, suggesting that the market is in a wait-and-see mode amid broader uncertainty. The 50 SMA (blue) and 100 SMA (green) have flattened, highlighting the consolidation pattern that has formed between $103,600 and $109,300. This range continues to dominate short-term price action, with bulls defending the lower boundary and bears rejecting higher levels.

A sustained move above $109,300 would open the door for a test of the all-time high at $112,000 and potentially begin a price discovery phase. Conversely, if BTC loses the $103,600 support zone, downside targets could shift toward $100,000.

Until a breakout occurs, this range remains key for short-term traders. Consolidation near key moving averages and support levels suggests that bulls still have a strong grip, but volatility remains a constant risk as macro conditions unfold.

Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView

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Ethereum is stable above the $1,800 level despite multiple failed attempts attempting to rise. Current price action shows potential shifts that compress the volatility to make a big move in either direction and build momentum. Analysts now believe that ETH is approaching a critical inflection point after months of pressure and weaker performance sales compared to Bitcoin.

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Top analyst Ted Pillows highlighted the formation of long legged Doji candles in Ethereum’s monthly time frame, sharing important technical observations. This type of candle usually reflects intense market indecisiveness, with both bulls and bears testing the extremes, but neither side gaining clear control by the end. It is often seen near major turning points, especially after long downtrends and integrations.

If Ethereum can regain the $2,000 level in upcoming sessions, it will confirm bullish intentions and open the door to a stronger gathering. On the other hand, not holding more than $1,750 can cause updated downside pressure and potentially retesting deeper support zones.

For now, ETH remains trapped in a tight range, but the technical setup and market structure suggest that a critical breakout could quickly define Ethereum’s path in the coming weeks.

Ethereum Key Resistance Levels are restricted upside down

Ethereum has been below the $2,000 level since late March, but this long-term integration shows a market that is still searching for directions. Despite bounces off the local lows, ETH is above 55% from its December high. This reflects the broader weaknesses of the Altcoin market. The Bulls manage to hold the $1,800 level, but to see a meaningful inversion, they need a sustained breakout on top of high supply zones like $2,000-$2,100.

In the short term, Ethereum has begun to build a more bullish structure, with higher and lower values ​​being formed across the daytime charts. This suggests that, despite the strong pressure from the seller, the Bulls are gradually regaining control. During upward movements, volume continues to fade, and without a critical breakout, prices may continue to be chopped sideways or revisit support zones near $1,700 or $1,550.

Market sentiment is carefully optimistic, and analysts are closely watching technical signals for confirmation. Pillow pointed out that ETH recently formed long-legged Doji candles on their monthly charts.

If this candle marks a turning point, Ethereum may be preparing for a breakout. However, the risk of moving to a lower demand zone remains very realistic until the Bulls regain important resistance.

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ETH Prices will be integrated as Bulls Eye Breakout

Ethereum currently trades for $1,830 and owns the company after several days of tough integration between $1,750 and $1,850. This narrow range defines recent price action as the Bulls and Bears remain trapped in standoffs close to key resistance. A critical breakout above the $1,850 level is important for the Bull to maintain control and see the inverted structure. Reclaiming the $2,000 zone will trigger new buying momentum and change short-term emotions and turn them upside down.

However, the longer ET stays at the upper limit below the resistance, the higher the risk of failure. If the Bulls can’t push past the $1,850 level anytime soon, sales pressure could be increased. A loss of $1,750 in support could open the door to return to the $1,700 zone. Further weakness from there could potentially lower ETH and retest the $1,500 level of demand that had previously intervened.

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Macroeconomic uncertainty is still heavy with markets and Etham performance lower than Bitcoin, so traders are watching the critical moves carefully. Until then, ETH remains trapped in a tighter range with increasing momentum, with breakouts and breakdowns likely turning corners.

An appellate court has granted a joint request from Ripple Labs and the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to pause an appeal in a 2020 SEC case against Ripple amid settlement negotiations.

In an April 16 filing in the US Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit, the court approved a joint SEC-Ripple motion to hold the appeal in abeyance — temporarily pausing the case — for 60 days. As part of the order, the SEC is expected to file a status report by June 15.

The SEC’s case against Ripple and its executives, filed in December 2020, was expected to begin winding down after Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse announced on March 19 that the commission would be dropping its appeal against the blockchain firm. A federal court found Ripple liable for $125 million in an August ruling, resulting in both the SEC and blockchain firm filing an appeal and cross-appeal, respectively.

However, once US President Donald Trump took office and leadership of the SEC moved from former chair Gary Gensler to acting chair Mark Uyeda, the commission began dropping multiple enforcement cases against crypto firms in a seeming political shift. Ripple pledged $5 million in XRP to Trump’s inauguration fund, and Garlinghouse and chief legal officer Stuart Alderoty attended events supporting the US president.

Related: SEC dropping Ripple case is ‘final exclamation mark’ that XRP is not a security — John Deaton

Despite support for the end of the case coming from both Ripple and the SEC, the August 2024 judgment and appellate cases leave some legal entanglements. Alderoty said in March that Ripple would drop its cross-appeal with the SEC and receive a roughly $75 million refund from the lower court judgment. It’s unclear what else may result from negotiations over a settlement in appellate court.

New leadership at SEC incoming

Acting chair Uyeda is expected to step down following the US Senate confirming Paul Atkins as SEC chair on April 9.

During his confirmation hearings, lawmakers questioned Atkins about his ties to crypto, which could create conflicts of interest in his role regulating the industry. In financial disclosures, Atkins stated he had millions of dollars in assets through stakes in crypto firms, including Securitize, Pontoro and Patomak.

Magazine: SEC’s U-turn on crypto leaves key questions unanswered

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