More than 30 years ago, the advent of the internet began captivating the attention of everyday investors. Over these three-plus decades, investors have often had a next-big-thing trend to chase after. At the moment, nothing is garnering more attention than the evolution of artificial intelligence (AI).

When most investors think about AI, semiconductor titan Nvidia probably comes to mind — and for good reason. Nvidia’s graphics processing units (GPUs) have become staples in high-compute data centers. Its Hopper and successor Blackwell GPUs are powering split-second decision-making, generative AI solutions, and the training of large language models, such as chatbots and virtual agents.

But the argument can be made that Nvidia’s time atop the AI pedestal is over, with AI-driven data-mining specialist Palantir Technologies (PLTR 1.62%) dethroning it. Palantir stock has gained nearly 2,000% since 2023 began, and its market cap has grown to $317 billion, as of the closing bell on July 3. It went from a company tech investors somewhat followed to being one of the most-influential tech businesses in the world.

Palantir’s success has been fueled by the irreplaceability of the services it offers. Its Gotham platform aids federal governments with data gathering and analysis, as well as military mission planning and execution. Meanwhile, Foundry is relied on by businesses to make sense of their data and streamline their operations. With no one-for-one large-scale replacements for Palantir’s AI- and cloud-based software-as-a-service (SaaS) model, its operating cash flow is highly predictable and secure.

Furthermore, Palantir made the turn to recurring profitability well ahead of Wall Street’s consensus expectation. Maintaining a rapidly growing moat and validating its competitive edge with recurring profits is a quick way to win over Wall Street and investors.

But what if Palantir’s momentous run-up is nothing more than a short-lived FOMO (fear of missing out) event? While this opinion will undoubtedly be unpopular given the riches this company has bestowed on shareholders since 2023 began, there are seven valid reasons to believe Palantir stock can plunge 60%, if not more.

1. Next-big-thing technologies always endure bubbles

One of the biggest challenges for Palantir Technologies is that investors have a terrible habit of overestimating how quickly a game-changing innovation will gain utility and be adopted by businesses and/or consumers.

Including the internet, every next-big-thing technology for more than three decades has endured a bubble-bursting event. This is to say that every innovation has needed time to mature. With most businesses not generating a positive return on their AI investments, nor optimizing their deployed AI solutions, it’s a fair assumption that AI is walking down the same path as prior game-changing technologies.

While the multiyear government contracts (via Gotham) and subscriptions (via Foundry) Palantir has earned should keep its sales from plunging if the AI bubble bursts, it’ll do nothing to save the company’s stock from a wave of negative investor sentiment.

2. Gotham’s ceiling is lower than investors realize

To date, Gotham has been the operating platform responsible for driving Palantir’s profits and its annual growth rate that typically range between 25% and 35%. Having the U.S. government in its corner has undeniably been a positive.

However, Gotham’s client pool is rather limited. Since it provides data collection and military mission planning/execution, Palantir’s flagship SaaS model isn’t available to China, Russia, and a laundry list of other countries that aren’t bona fide allies of the U.S. This significantly lowers Gotham’s long-term ceiling more than investors probably realize.

3. The Trump administration’s focus on government efficiency is worrisome

For defense-oriented businesses, there’s usually no better scenario that a unified Republican government. Historically, the GOP has favored aggressive defense spending, which plays right into the hands of Palantir’s Gotham platform. President Donald Trump has previously noted the need to keep domestic AI innovations protected.

But Trump’s campaign promise has also been to make Washington, D.C., more efficient. Though the president has been supportive of defense companies in the past, there’s little guarantee that the Trump administration won’t aim to reduce federal spending in the future. There’s also little visibility of what defense spending might entail beyond Trump’s four years in office.

4. Palantir’s earnings quality is poor

A public company that’s added more than $300 billion in market cap over the last 30 months should be absolutely crushing it from a fundamental standpoint. With Palantir shifting to recurring profitability, the expectation is that rapid sales growth in Gotham and Foundry is powering its net income higher. Yet this isn’t the complete story.

Last year, 40% of Palantir’s $489.2 million in pre-tax income was traced back to interest income on its cash. During the first three months of 2025, 23% of the company’s pre-tax income came from interest on its cash. While I’m not faulting Palantir or its management for generating interest income on the company’s cash pile, it’s important to recognize that a significant chunk of the company’s pre-tax income is coming from a non-innovative and unsustainable source.

PLTR Shares Outstanding data by YCharts.

5. Share-based compensation is working against investors

Another reason for investors to pass on Palantir stock is the company’s persistent share-based compensation.

Stock-based compensation often serves a purpose. Handing out vested shares, stock options, and so on, encourages talented individuals to stay with a company. Stock-based compensation can also be used as something of a dangling carrot to encourage workers and managers to meet specific growth targets.

Unfortunately, stock-based compensation can have a deleterious impact for shareholders. In the case of Palantir, steadily climbing share-based compensation is increasing its outstanding share count and having a dilutive effect on existing shareholders. While this dilutive effect has, thus far, been masked by AI euphoria and FOMO, history suggests this is highly unlikely to continue for an extended period.

6. Insiders have been persistent sellers for nearly five years

Investors would also be wise to take note of the persistent insider selling activity of Palantir Technologies’ stock since its initial public offering (IPO) in September 2020.

Once again, there’s a bit of a caveat to this data. Namely, the compensation of executives is often heavily weighted toward shares and stock options, which requires the sale of shares to cover their federal and/or state tax liability. In other words, not all insider selling is necessarily bad news or indicative of management losing faith in their company.

With the above being said, more than $7.4 billion in Palantir stock has been sold since the September 2020 IPO, with former Chief Accounting Officer Heather Planishek’s 10,000-share buy in May 2025 being the only executive or director purchase in 57 months.

If executives and directors won’t buy shares of Palantir, why should you?

PLTR PS Ratio data by YCharts. PS Ratio = price-to-sales ratio.

7. Palantir’s valuation is an unsustainable eyesore

The final piece of the puzzle that explains why Palantir stock can plunge 60% (or more) is its valuation.

Over the last three decades, megacap stocks on the leading edge of next-big-thing trends have historically topped out at price-to-sales (P/S) ratios ranging from 30 to 43. Some of the brand-name companies that fit this definition include Microsoft, Amazon, Cisco Systems, and even Nvidia, based on its peak P/S ratio of 42 last summer.

Palantir stock ended the previous week at a trailing-12-month P/S ratio of more than 107! It’s effectively three times higher than other megacap companies before their respective bubbles burst.

Even if Wall Street’s consensus sales estimates prove accurate and Palantir’s revenue catapults by 263% to $10.42 billion from 2024 to 2028, its current valuation (assuming no share-based compensation) would place it at a lofty P/S ratio of 30 by the end of 2028. This is a historically unsustainable valuation, and it’s just a matter of time before Wall Street and investors come to this realization.

The Euro Pacific Capital founder and chief strategist pointed out that gold rose 3% over the previous weekend from Friday until Monday. Meanwhile, the average BTC price fell by 3%. The investment wizard left it to the reader to conclude that Bitcoin cannot be a digital version of gold.

Gold rose over $90 today. That’s a 3% gain from Friday’s close. Over the same time period Bitcoin fell by 3%. How can something that is claimed to be a digital version of gold, trade like the mirror image of gold? Bitcoin may be digital, but it’s got nothing in common with gold.

— Peter Schiff (@PeterSchiff) May 5, 2025

But this may be a specious argument.

Peter Schiff Doesn’t Give Bitcoin Credit

The representatives of Bitcoin in online communities compare it to gold, but by analogy. Nobody but Peter Schiff seems to be confused about whether BTC is some kind of gold certificate or ETF.

The analogy to the yellow metal begins in the seminal Bitcoin white paper by Satoshi Nakamoto. Describing how the BTC network creates new supplies of the currency, he wrote on Oct 31, 2008:

“The steady addition of a constant of amount of new coins is analogous to gold miners expending resources to add gold to circulation. In our case, it is CPU time and electricity that is expended.”

In other words, Bitcoin has a limited supply and any network participant must spend the electricity and computer runtime the BTC app requires in order to produce a new coin.

The Digital Gold Thesis Lives On

Michael Saylor on Gold vs Fiat vs #Bitcoin pic.twitter.com/nzWFgV1BfP

— Vivek (@Vivek4real_) March 9, 2025

Later in the comment thread on his original post, Schiff wrote:

“Gold is 100% intrinsic value. Bitcoin is 100% faith.”

But gold does not have intrinsic value. It has instrumental value as a financial commodity because of the specific properties of its nature and the economy of our planet.

The rarity, durability, fungibility, and chemical identifiability of gold make it a financial classic of human civilization. The creator(s) of Bitcoin designed it to instantiate all four of those properties in a free, open, public, borderless, computer network database.

As for BTC vs. gold in terms of their performance as financial investments, Bitcoin was built to give its bearers relief from overheated central bank printing presses. Traditionally, folks like Mr. Schiff used gold for that purpose.

But Bitcoin hasn’t failed so far to live up to gold’s reputation as a fiat shelter. In fact, it’s done even better than the yellow metal over most time spans relevant to most kinds of investors.

The Wall Street spot ETF craze for Bitcoin, followed by President Donald Trump’s historic overtures to the Web3 industry and reelection with a mandate in November, pushed its price to all-time highs.

BTC entered Q4 last year at $60,800 and by Jan. 20th, shot up to a record of over $109,000. But soon after, the asset began a steep correction back to $85,000 to start off Q2.

Bitcoin’s Price Dip in Q1

Traders who bought at the Oct. 1 price last year were up by 79% the day of Trump’s inauguration. If they held through Mar. 31, they would still be up by 40%.

By most historical benchmarks, that’s very fast growth for the average American individual investor’s dollar. Some might say it is too fast and too risky, pointing to the volatility of Bitcoin markets, with such dramatic price swings in both directions.

But interestingly, Bitcoin’s price isn’t the only global economic benchmark that traced a dramatic upward swing through 2024 with a steep correction starting in Q1 of this year.

US stocks in the benchmark S&P 500 Index and Nasdaq Composite charted the exact same pattern. The 30-day BTC Pearson Correlation to US stocks has remained positive since last August.

Moreover, the Bitcoin/stocks correlation accelerated into the financial melt up in Q4 and again during the course correction in Q1. So these trends indicated the macro forces in the economy for these price movements.

Bitcoin’s Price and Orange Prices Locked in Weird Correlation

Why orange juice is so expensive https://t.co/mF1WQn6LXi

— CNBC (@CNBC) April 3, 2025

Here’s where it gets even more interesting.

Bitcoin’s rally in 2024, bull run in Q4, and correction in Q1 also traced the same path through exchange markets that global orange prices followed over the same time periods.

Although the average global price of an orange was $3.21 in Jan. 2024, by last December it had risen sharply to $5.09. But by last month, it had fallen to $2.71, according to IMF data at the Federal Reserve.

It’s more economic data on the side of the theory that BTC’s price growth is mostly a function of the dollar’s expansion over GDP. Rising consumer prices are the same as Bitcoin’s rising prices in the same dollar tide.

Curiously enough, this correlation between Bitcoin and the dollar has continued a trend ongoing since the 2023 and 2020 cryptocurrency markets.