Oil – Earlybirds Invest https://earlybirdsinvest.com Latest Crypto News Sun, 10 Aug 2025 12:01:04 +0000 en-US hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=6.9.7 https://i0.wp.com/earlybirdsinvest.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/cropped-New-Project-2024-12-17T235703.455.png?fit=32%2C32&ssl=1 Oil – Earlybirds Invest https://earlybirdsinvest.com 32 32 240146708 Union Jack Oil Turns to Bitcoin Mining at Delayed UK Gas Site https://earlybirdsinvest.com/union-jack-oil-turns-to-bitcoin-mining-at-delayed-uk-gas-site/ https://earlybirdsinvest.com/union-jack-oil-turns-to-bitcoin-mining-at-delayed-uk-gas-site/#respond Sun, 10 Aug 2025 12:01:04 +0000 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/union-jack-oil-turns-to-bitcoin-mining-at-delayed-uk-gas-site/

A UK-based energy company listed on the stock exchange, Union Jack Oil, is planning to turn natural gas at its West Newton site into power for Bitcoin mining.

According to an August 7 report, Union Jack Oil is working with Rathlin Energy, the site operator, and 360 Energy, a company from Texas that helps turn unused or wasted gas into electricity.

They have signed a non-binding letter of intent to use 360’s equipment, which is designed for field use and can support data centers like those used for mining Bitcoin
BTC


$117,439.03

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The West Newton project became part of Union Jack Oil’s portfolio in 2019 after Rathlin Energy found gas there. Later drilling confirmed it as one of the biggest onshore gas finds in the country. Despite its potential, the project has faced repeated delays due to planning issues and concerns surrounding fossil fuel developments.

Union Jack Oil’s Executive Chairman, David Bramhill, said, “Regulatory uncertainty has unduly hampered progress”. He also stated that companies like Union Jack Oil have had to look for new ways to keep moving forward.

According to Bramhill, the plan to mine Bitcoin could help bring in steady returns while the company waits for the full-scale project to get back on track. If the mining effort proves successful, Union Jack Oil might even keep some of the Bitcoin it mines as part of its financial strategy.

France’s Rassemblement National (RN) party recently announced plans to mine Bitcoin using surplus power from the country’s nuclear plants. What did Marine Le Pen say about it? Read the full story.

]]> https://earlybirdsinvest.com/union-jack-oil-turns-to-bitcoin-mining-at-delayed-uk-gas-site/feed/ 0 52481 US Feds File Suit to Forfeit $7.1M in Crypto With Ties to Oil and Gas Storage Fraud https://earlybirdsinvest.com/us-feds-file-suit-to-forfeit-7-1m-in-crypto-with-ties-to-oil-and-gas-storage-fraud/ https://earlybirdsinvest.com/us-feds-file-suit-to-forfeit-7-1m-in-crypto-with-ties-to-oil-and-gas-storage-fraud/#respond Sun, 27 Jul 2025 03:40:00 +0000 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/us-feds-file-suit-to-forfeit-7-1m-in-crypto-with-ties-to-oil-and-gas-storage-fraud/

The U.S. Department of Justice is cracking down on yet another cryptocurrency fraud ploy.

The losses amount to tens of millions, and it’s expected that more will be identified.

An Elaborate Scheme

The U.S. Attorney’s Office in the Western District of Washington filed a civil action on Tuesday, demanding the forfeiture of cryptocurrency assets valued at roughly $7.1 million. The funds were seized during an investigation into a scheme involving fraudulent investment in oil and gas, which Acting U.S. Attorney Teal Luthy Miller announced.

The assets are only a fraction of the $97 million obtained by coconspirators between June 2022 and July 2024, which Homeland Security Investigations seized in December last year.

“The co-schemers in this fraud moved their ill-gotten gain through various cryptocurrency accounts to try to launder the money stolen from victims,” said Attorney Miller.

“Federal investigators and prosecutors in our office moved as quickly as possible to trace and seize the cryptocurrency so that some of the losses can be returned to victims.”

According to the filing and other case records, the plot was presented as escrow accounts for purchasing oil tank storage in either Rotterdam, the Netherlands, or Houston, which spanned from at least August 2022 through August 2024.

The victims were convinced to send money to these accounts, where the conspirators indicated that investors could make significant profits by renting out the oil tank storage to others. At least seven separate entities have been marked where funds were sent.

However, the good news ended there, as once the funds were sent, no further information on the investment was provided, and the co-schemers just stopped replying.

How The Funds Were Moved

A resident from Newcastle, Washington, Geoffrey K. Auyeung, 47, was indicted as a coconspirator in the U.S in August 2024, being charged with receiving the majority of the funds generated by the deceptive plan.

The money was quickly shuffled to one or more of at least 81 accounts at various institutions, either offshore or not, or to one of the at least 19 different crypto accounts.

The assets were then funneled into various cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin, USDT, USDC, and Ethereum, the majority of which was further transferred to accounts at the Binance exchange.

The forfeiture filing further states that the crypto accounts, which were seized, were linked to individuals in Russia and Nigeria, where some of the victims’ funds, used to purchase digital assets, were also sent to exchanges in those countries.

At least one of the money markets in Russia or Nigeria is alleged to have facilitated money laundering for transnational criminal organizations, including terrorist organizations and other parties that have been known to violate international trade sanctions.

At the time of Auyeung’s arrest, $2.3 million was seized from his bank accounts, which is in addition to the $7.1 million in crypto the government is seeking to forfeit.

If the court approves the forfeiture, the funds will be distributed accordingly to the victims. Investigators, so far, have identified dozens of such cases, with the total amount of exploits reaching approximately $17.9 million, which is expected to grow as more casualties are identified.

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]]> https://earlybirdsinvest.com/us-feds-file-suit-to-forfeit-7-1m-in-crypto-with-ties-to-oil-and-gas-storage-fraud/feed/ 0 49891 BitMine and SharpLink amass $1B stash amid Ethereum’s rising appeal as ‘digital oil’ https://earlybirdsinvest.com/bitmine-and-sharplink-amass-1b-stash-amid-ethereums-rising-appeal-as-digital-oil/ https://earlybirdsinvest.com/bitmine-and-sharplink-amass-1b-stash-amid-ethereums-rising-appeal-as-digital-oil/#respond Fri, 18 Jul 2025 05:41:19 +0000 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/bitmine-and-sharplink-amass-1b-stash-amid-ethereums-rising-appeal-as-digital-oil/

Ethereum-focused firms BitMine and SharpLink Gaming have each surpassed $1 billion in ETH holdings.

BitMine disclosed on July 17 that it now holds 300,657 ETH, valued at approximately $1.04 billion. The firm acquired its holdings at an average price of $3,461.89 per token.

Conversely, SharpLink Gaming has also expanded its Ethereum position, purchasing an additional $68.4 million worth of ETH.

Blockchain analysis platform Arkham Intelligence pointed out that this latest purchase, combined with ETH’s price appreciation, brings SharpLink’s total holdings to an estimated $1.10 billion, not including any staking rewards.

Meanwhile, separate data from the Strategic ETH Reserve places SharpLink’s wallet at 280,600 ETH, worth about $962.8 million at the time of the report.

Strategic Ethereum Reserve
Strategic Ethereum Reserve (Source: Strategic ETH Reserve)

According to Oblong Research, this wave of institutional purchases reflects a broader realization that Ethereum is not just a speculative asset but a foundational layer for the growing on-chain economy.

With roughly $237 billion in value secured on its network, ETH is increasingly viewed as “digital oil,”  a productive base asset that powers a wide range of decentralized applications.

Ethereum Capital Secured
Total Capital Secured on Ethereum (Source: Oblong Research)
]]> https://earlybirdsinvest.com/bitmine-and-sharplink-amass-1b-stash-amid-ethereums-rising-appeal-as-digital-oil/feed/ 0 48271 Oil markets tense amid U.S. airstrikes on Iran, while Bitcoin price holds steady https://earlybirdsinvest.com/oil-markets-tense-amid-u-s-airstrikes-on-iran-while-bitcoin-price-holds-steady/ https://earlybirdsinvest.com/oil-markets-tense-amid-u-s-airstrikes-on-iran-while-bitcoin-price-holds-steady/#respond Sun, 22 Jun 2025 19:32:51 +0000 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/oil-markets-tense-amid-u-s-airstrikes-on-iran-while-bitcoin-price-holds-steady/

Global oil markets are on high alert following U.S. airstrikes on three of Iran’s nuclear facilities, Fordow, Isfahan, and Natanz, with fears mounting over a potential closure of the critical Strait of Hormuz. The military action, announced by President Donald Trump last night, has intensified geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and raised concerns about a sharp spike in oil prices.

The Strait of Hormuz is a narrow sea passage between the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman. It provides the only water access from the Persian Gulf to the open ocean and has historically been one of the most strategically important shipping bottlenecks.

Roughly 20% of the world’s oil supply flows through the Strait. Any disruption to it could send crude prices soaring to $120–$130 per barrel, threatening global economic stability and stoking inflation, since soaring oil prices translate into higher costs of everyday goods for consumers.

Despite the U.S. joining forces with Israel last night to attack Iran’s nuclear program, the global benchmark Brent crude remains relatively stable for now, trading at around $72 per barrel. The situation remains highly volatile as markets await further clarity on Iran’s response and the status of the Strait.

Since news of the strikes, the price of Bitcoin has shown resilience, currently trading above $102,600 and remaining steady even as traditional markets brace for potential shocks. This stability reinforces the growing perception among investors that Bitcoin is no longer just a speculative asset but is increasingly being recognized as a safe-haven option in times of geopolitical turmoil.

Bitcoin’s fixed supply, decentralized nature, and rising adoption have contributed to its new role as a hedge against inflation and global instability. As oil prices and traditional assets face turbulence, Bitcoin’s calm performance suggests that it is increasingly being viewed as a complementary risk-off alongside gold. This is a trend that will likely strengthen as the global economy becomes increasingly digital and interconnected.

Moreover, since the Bitcoin and crypto markets are open to trade 24/7, they are often the first to be sold off over the weekends as investors flee to safety. Bitcoin’s price barely flinching amid the news of the U.S. airstrikes demonstrates the undeniable maturation of the market.

 

Bitcoin Market Data

At the time of press 2:10 pm UTC on Jun. 22, 2025, Bitcoin is ranked #1 by market cap and the price is down 1.15% over the past 24 hours. Bitcoin has a market capitalization of $2.04 trillion with a 24-hour trading volume of $48.7 billion. Learn more about Bitcoin ›

Crypto Market Summary

At the time of press 2:10 pm UTC on Jun. 22, 2025, the total crypto market is valued at at $3.14 trillion with a 24-hour volume of $116.13 billion. Bitcoin dominance is currently at 65.01%. Learn more about the crypto market ›

 

 

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]]> https://earlybirdsinvest.com/oil-markets-tense-amid-u-s-airstrikes-on-iran-while-bitcoin-price-holds-steady/feed/ 0 43513 LatAm energy giant executes landmark $75M oil and gas deal via blockchain tokenization https://earlybirdsinvest.com/latam-energy-giant-executes-landmark-75m-oil-and-gas-deal-via-blockchain-tokenization/ https://earlybirdsinvest.com/latam-energy-giant-executes-landmark-75m-oil-and-gas-deal-via-blockchain-tokenization/#respond Wed, 18 Jun 2025 06:16:01 +0000 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/latam-energy-giant-executes-landmark-75m-oil-and-gas-deal-via-blockchain-tokenization/

Feniix Energy, an energy firm based in Latin America, has completed a $75 million acquisition of a live oil and gas operation using blockchain tokenization, according to a statement shared with CryptoSlate on June 17.

Global Settlement, a blockchain firm specializing in real-world assets (RWAs), executed the deal through its GSX Protocol.

The protocol enabled instant settlements, reduced counterparty risk, and lowered transaction fees. It also introduced full transparency throughout the funding and ownership process.

Notably, stablecoins were used to settle the transaction, removing the need for traditional banking intermediaries. This marked a pivotal move in financing capital-intensive projects using decentralized finance tools.

The acquisition was structured entirely through tokenized debt and equity. An unnamed leading commodity trading company provided the debt portion, making this the first known instance of a fully tokenized capital structure used to purchase an active energy asset.

Feniix Energy’s Director, Alejandro Uribe, described the deal as a milestone in energy financing. He said that blockchain brought unmatched speed, visibility, and trust features that were often missing in traditional financing.

He said:

“Our collaboration with Global Settlement demonstrates how innovation can bridge traditional finance and the crypto economy, unlocking substantial value for our stakeholders.”

Global Settlement founder Kyle Sonlin added that the deal aimed to showcase the real-world benefits of tokenization. He emphasized that on-chain infrastructure helped streamline capital flows and reduce operational costs.

Industry observers see this acquisition as a breakthrough moment for blockchain adoption in traditional sectors. The use of tokenized capital in live infrastructure deals signals growing confidence in blockchain as a financing tool for institutional-grade projects.

The timing of this deal aligns with rising momentum in the RWA space. A June 16 report by CoinGecko noted that the tokenized treasuries market surged 544.8% in 2024, reaching an all-time high of $5.6 billion by April 2025.

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]]> https://earlybirdsinvest.com/latam-energy-giant-executes-landmark-75m-oil-and-gas-deal-via-blockchain-tokenization/feed/ 0 42662 ETH Holds Strong; Is It the ‘Digital Oil’ Powering the Global Digital Economy? https://earlybirdsinvest.com/eth-holds-strong-is-it-the-digital-oil-powering-the-global-digital-economy/ https://earlybirdsinvest.com/eth-holds-strong-is-it-the-digital-oil-powering-the-global-digital-economy/#respond Sun, 15 Jun 2025 22:17:35 +0000 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/eth-holds-strong-is-it-the-digital-oil-powering-the-global-digital-economy/

Ether (ETH)

is trading above $2,540, showing strong resilience in the face of market turbulence fueled by heightened geopolitical risk. After briefly dipping to $2,491.72, ETH recovered swiftly, closing higher on above-average volume and validating key support near $2,500, according to CoinDesk Research’s technical analysis model.

Technical indicators suggest renewed momentum, supported by a double-bottom formation and heavy intraday buying near $2,530. ETH open interest stood at $35.36 billion as of 6:05 p.m. UTC on June 16, per CoinGlass data, indicating active institutional positioning.

However, U.S.-listed spot Ethereum ETFs saw $2.1 million in net outflows on Friday, ending a record-setting 19-day inflow streak, according to data from Farside Investors. Despite that, ETH continues to hold its range between $2,500 and $2,800, suggesting bullish sentiment is intact for now.

Helping to support this narrative is a press release issued on Thursday by Etherealize, a group focused on bridging institutional finance and Ethereum. The statement announced the publication of “The Bull Case for ETH,” a comprehensive report backed by ecosystem leaders like Danny Ryan, Grant Hummer, Vivek Raman, and others. The report argues that Ethereum is becoming the essential foundation for a digitally native global financial system.

According to the report’, the global economy is undergoing a generational shift, with financial assets increasingly moving onchain. Ethereum is positioned as the primary settlement layer enabling this transformation due to its decentralization, security, and uptime. The reports says that Ethereum already powers over 80% of all tokenized assets and is the default infrastructure for stablecoins and institutional blockchain deployments.

ETH, the native asset of Ethereum, is described not just as a store of value but also as programmable collateral, computational fuel, and yield-bearing infrastructure. The report claims ETH is vastly underpriced compared to its long-term utility and describes it as “digital oil” — a productive reserve asset underpinning a composable, global financial ecosystem. It argues ETH should be a core holding in any institution’s long-term digital asset strategy, complementing bitcoin’s role as digital gold.

In sum, while macro conditions remain volatile, Ethereum’s market behavior —combined with continued institutional engagement and its growing role as financial infrastructure — suggests ETH could be forming a durable base for a future breakout.

Technical Analysis Highlights

  • ETH traded between $2,500.43 and $2,554.69, closing near session highs at $2,542.
  • A double-bottom structure developed near $2,495–$2,510, supported by above-average volume.
  • Resistance was tested at $2,553, but a strong hourly close on 158,553 ETH volume signals renewed momentum.
  • A V-shaped bounce followed a low at $2,529, driven by spikes at 13:43 and 13:46.
  • Continued buying could push ETH toward $2,575–$2,600 short term.

Disclaimer: Parts of this article were generated with the assistance from AI tools and reviewed by our editorial team to ensure accuracy and adherence to our standards. For more information, see CoinDesk’s full AI Policy.

]]> https://earlybirdsinvest.com/eth-holds-strong-is-it-the-digital-oil-powering-the-global-digital-economy/feed/ 0 42230 Bloomberg Analyst Predicts Massive but Historically ‘Normal’ Market Crashes for Bitcoin, Oil and Stock Market https://earlybirdsinvest.com/bloomberg-analyst-predicts-massive-but-historically-normal-market-crashes-for-bitcoin-oil-and-stock-market/ https://earlybirdsinvest.com/bloomberg-analyst-predicts-massive-but-historically-normal-market-crashes-for-bitcoin-oil-and-stock-market/#respond Tue, 22 Apr 2025 01:34:51 +0000 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/bloomberg-analyst-predicts-massive-but-historically-normal-market-crashes-for-bitcoin-oil-and-stock-market/

Bloomberg commodity strategist Mike McGlone says that there’s a chance of a massive correction in US markets that could pummel the price of Bitcoin (BTC), oil and stocks.

In a post on the social media platform X, McGlone says the US has a “self-correcting mechanism” that may push back against President Trump’s tariff war, which could create market chaos.

The analyst shares a chart suggesting that the S&P 500 vs. GDP ratio and the S&P 500 vs. gold ratio are both at elevated levels – a setup that has historically marked stock market crashes, such as in the 1930s, the late 1990s, and 2008.

Such an event, or “reversion,” could result in significant drops in stocks, Bitcoin oil, copper and bonds, according to McGlone.

“America’s self-correcting mechanism is unstoppable. If unprecedented tariffs and austerity don’t work, pushback will come in the next elections. If the great rebalance attempt works, it could reset world order underpinnings for the coming century.

The problem is that the discombobulation is coming with US stock market cap vs. GDP and the rest of the world, the highest in about 100 years.

My normal reversion base case:

– 50% drawdown in the US stock market

– $40 a barrel crude oil

– $3 per pound copper

– 3% US 10-year yield

– $10,000 Bitcoin, 90% drawdowns in most of the millions of cryptocurrencies

– $4,000 gold, the outlier due to not being simple reversion”

Image
Source: Mike McGlone/X

While McGlone’s predicted drawdowns appear severe, the analyst says that the magnitude of the potential downside moves is “normal” based on historical terms.

At time of writing, Bitcoin is trading for $87,529.

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]]> https://earlybirdsinvest.com/bloomberg-analyst-predicts-massive-but-historically-normal-market-crashes-for-bitcoin-oil-and-stock-market/feed/ 0 32130 Bitcoin flat as China announces new 125% tariff on US goods, gold spikes, oil declines https://earlybirdsinvest.com/bitcoin-flat-as-china-announces-new-125-tariff-on-us-goods-gold-spikes-oil-declines/ https://earlybirdsinvest.com/bitcoin-flat-as-china-announces-new-125-tariff-on-us-goods-gold-spikes-oil-declines/#respond Fri, 11 Apr 2025 09:31:43 +0000 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/bitcoin-flat-as-china-announces-new-125-tariff-on-us-goods-gold-spikes-oil-declines/

China’s finance ministry has raised tariffs on select US imports to 125%, matching the United States’ most recent escalation and signaling continued parity in the trade conflict.

The tariff adjustment, announced early Friday, comes just two days after Beijing raised duties to 84%, following Washington’s move to impose higher import taxes on Chinese goods.

The decision took effect immediately and was accompanied by sharply worded statements from Chinese officials who framed the measures as a defensive response to what they labeled unilateral economic aggression.

The Chinese foreign ministry described the US actions as “hegemonic” and “bullying,” while the commerce ministry called the move a “mistake on top of a mistake.”

Per BBC News, Beijing stated it would not escalate further but warned against continued US tariff pressure, describing the latest hike as contrary to international economic norms.

Beijing’s Commerce Ministry told the BBC that US tariffs have turned into

“A numbers game with no practical significance in economics[…] It will become a joke.”

Cross-Asset Response Reflects Diverging Risk Narratives

The market reaction reflected uncertainty about how deeply the tariff escalation would affect global trade and capital flows. While traditional safe-haven assets received modest inflows, risk assets moved unevenly.

Bitcoin, which had dipped approximately 0.60% before the announcement as broader risk assets sold off, briefly recovered after 9:00 A.M GMT but ultimately remained near flat at $81,292.68 as of press time, down 0.07% intraday.

Market reaction to trade war (Source: TradingView)
Market reaction to trade war (Source: TradingView)

The mixed response highlights an ongoing debate over Bitcoin’s role as a macro hedge. Some investors treat it as a store of value during geopolitical tension, while others view it as a high-beta asset sensitive to broader market sentiment. The indecision mirrors behavior seen during previous trade disputes, where crypto’s utility as a safe-haven asset remains context-dependent.

In contrast, gold rose steadily, gaining 0.35% over the session. The metal’s upward momentum continued past the announcement, consistent with previous episodes of trade friction. Gold’s price behavior suggested capital rotation out of equities and into hard assets that are less vulnerable to trade volume disruption.

US Treasury bonds also attracted demand. Prices on the 10-year bond climbed by 0.12%, driving yields lower and reflecting investor caution. Falling yields often signal expectations for slower economic growth or future Federal Reserve rate cuts.

The uptick in demand aligns with a broader risk-off sentiment, especially in anticipation of further policy tightening or retaliatory economic measures. Still, it contrasts with recent declines in bond prices along with equities. The move, while modest, indicates a renewal in US bonds as a flight to safety after the sell-off earlier this week.

Oil Declines Sharply, Yuan Static

Oil posted the most notable downside move across assets. Prices fell 1.02% as traders recalibrated demand expectations under the assumption that extended trade disputes could constrain global industrial activity. The move reflects sensitivities to macroeconomic indicators that suggest trade barriers could reduce energy consumption, particularly in manufacturing-heavy regions.

Meanwhile, Chinese bonds mainly remained unchanged. The proxy 10-year Chinese government bond posted a marginal increase of just 0.01%, hinting at either a fully priced-in market or expectations that the People’s Bank of China may intervene to ensure currency stability. Such muted movement implies investors anticipate limited near-term volatility in foreign exchange markets despite the tariff escalation.

The S&P 500 (SPY proxy) slipped 0.63% in pre-market trading, reflecting cautious sentiment and a continued wholesale move out of equities.

Broader Trade Landscape

The tariff increase follows a pattern of reciprocal moves that began with the Trump administration’s sweeping import tax policies. Since the start of the trade confrontation, Beijing has matched Washington’s escalation with near-equal tariff hikes. The cumulative increases have driven both sides’ duties to historically elevated levels, with a stated 125% tariff now becoming the baseline for many products.

Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te separately noted that Taiwan is engaged in early negotiations with Washington after a temporary pause reduced US tariffs on the island’s exports from 32% to a 10% baseline. Per BBC News, Lai stated that his government remains committed to securing favorable outcomes to protect industrial interests.

Whether the tariff ceiling holds or triggers new rounds of retaliation remains uncertain. For now, investors appear divided in their interpretation of what elevated tariffs signal, either an inflection point in trade relations or an entrenched state of economic separation between the world’s two largest economies.

While commodities like gold and bonds continue to absorb geopolitical risk in traditional ways, Bitcoin’s identity straddles both ends of the spectrum. Its lack of clear directional conviction may reflect broader hesitancy to assign it a fixed role in macroeconomic crises, at least until clearer signals emerge from either central banks or geopolitical actors.

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]]> https://earlybirdsinvest.com/bitcoin-flat-as-china-announces-new-125-tariff-on-us-goods-gold-spikes-oil-declines/feed/ 0 30207 Tariffs caused Bitcoin to decline less than equities or oil yet more than bonds or gold https://earlybirdsinvest.com/tariffs-caused-bitcoin-to-decline-less-than-equities-or-oil-yet-more-than-bonds-or-gold/ https://earlybirdsinvest.com/tariffs-caused-bitcoin-to-decline-less-than-equities-or-oil-yet-more-than-bonds-or-gold/#respond Wed, 09 Apr 2025 13:41:24 +0000 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/tariffs-caused-bitcoin-to-decline-less-than-equities-or-oil-yet-more-than-bonds-or-gold/

Bitcoin continues to trade lower for April, surrendering the majority of its Q1 gains as global markets react to escalating US-China trade tensions.

The move, tied to the US trade war, comes amid broader asset repricing, with Treasury yields falling, oil collapsing, and equities entering correction territory.

Prices since tariffs announced (Source: TradingView)
Prices since tariffs announced (Source: TradingView)

The above post-tariff chart captures the acute market response since President Trump’s April 2 announcement of sweeping trade penalties and China’s response of an 84% tariff on US goods, a move Beijing described as non-negotiable.

Within days, oil prices collapsed by 20.92%, while SPY fell 10.23% and Bitcoin dropped 7.34%. Bond prices also declined, with US10 and CN10 down 2.42% and 2.58%, respectively, reflecting upward pressure on yields.

Gold, often a traditional safe haven, retreated 2.83%, indicating that liquidity stress and risk-off sentiment dominated across asset classes.

Bitcoin’s relative positioning, down less than SPY and oil but more than bonds and gold, shows that despite strategic reserve narratives, it remains partially tethered to broader macro volatility under acute market stress.

Global assets since US election (Source: TradingView)
Global assets since the US election (Source: TradingView)

Their overall performance since Donald Trump’s election win solidifies Bitcoin’s relative resilience.

Since the November 2024 US election, Bitcoin is up 11.51 %, and gold is closely trailing at 11.09 percent. Both assets have held ground as traditional markets repriced sharply. SPY has declined 14.42%, and oil prices have collapsed by over 20%, highlighting widespread macro stress.

Meanwhile, the US and Chinese 10-year bond prices (US10 and CN10) have fallen 5.11% and 1.72%, respectively, consistent with expectations of persistent inflation or heightened issuance.

BTC correlation with macro deepens

Bitcoin’s performance since Trump’s inauguration initially tracked with a supportive policy environment.

Public backing of crypto adoption, tokenization of reserves, and re-shoring initiatives contributed to a bullish narrative across digital assets.

However, the latest data shows Bitcoin trading mostly in line with risk assets rather than decoupling from them.

The recent selloff across SPY and the reversal in Treasury yields reflect shifting expectations. Markets are beginning to price in slower growth, tighter consumption, and more defensive positioning. Yale’s Budget Lab projects a 0.9 percentage point decline in real GDP for 2025, with the average household expected to incur $3,800 in additional costs from the tariff regime.

Despite favorable long-term policy framing, Bitcoin has not escaped volatility tied to global liquidity and demand concerns. Institutional allocators appear to be reducing exposure to beta-sensitive assets, crypto included, as recession odds rise.

JPMorgan now places the probability of a global recession at 60%, up from 40% before the April announcements. Goldman Sachs raised its US-specific projection to 45 percent. JPMorgan’s annual letter also cautioned that prolonged tariffs may contribute to persistent inflation, asset volatility, and reduced investment confidence.

Global bond divergence narrows Bitcoin’s safe-haven window

While US Treasury yields have reversed sharply, China’s sovereign bond market is reflecting different stress signals. The China 10-year yield is down to 1.65 percent, dropping 65 basis points year over year.

Trading Economics data also shows consistent yield declines across the 2Y, 5Y, and 30Y curves. These moves imply deflationary pressure, weak external demand, and limited domestic growth rebound potential.

As Citi reported, China’s GDP forecast has been cut from 4.7 percent to 4.2 percent for 2025. However, this is still considerably higher than the US’s current 2.4% growth and projected 3% decline. Kaiyuan Securities projects that US tariffs may reduce Chinese exports by nearly a third, reducing total exports by 4.5 percent and dragging growth by over a percentage point.

Yet,

With both Western and Chinese sovereign curves pricing in downside growth risk, Bitcoin’s role as a global reserve hedge becomes more complicated.

Institutional portfolios may hold back on discretionary allocation until liquidity stabilizes or policy clarity returns.

Trump’s framing of Bitcoin as a reserve-grade digital commodity continues to resonate with parts of the domestic crypto ecosystem, but implementation remains unclear. For now, investors appear to be watching macro signals more than political signaling.

Bitcoin outlook in context of recession risk

The structural narrative surrounding Bitcoin as a geopolitical hedge, inflation buffer, or programmable reserve asset remains intact.

However, in periods of macro stress, correlations tend to increase across all risk markets. The latest price action indicates that Bitcoin is not yet viewed as a risk-off asset under liquidity duress.

BTC may still find policy tailwinds if the administration accelerates Bitcoin-native initiatives, introduces digital treasury issuance, or formalizes sovereign Bitcoin holdings. Until then, market participants are trading the asset through a macro lens. Price behavior remains closely tied to risk conditions, recession modeling, and cross-asset liquidity.

Brent crude oil has fallen more than 20 percent since late March, with forward spreads narrowing and surplus pricing increasing. Consumer retrenchment, reduced export demand, and pressure on manufacturing margins all feed into broader market repricing.

Bitcoin, as part of the broader allocation spectrum, remains sensitive to these shifts.

Year-to-date Bitcoin is actually one of the worst-performing assets, second only to oil.

Year to date chart of global bonds, commodities and securities (Source: TradingView)
Year-to-date chart of global bonds, commodities, and securities (Source: TradingView)

The divergence illustrates how Bitcoin and gold have so far absorbed trade war volatility more effectively than oil, equities, or sovereign debt markets, suggesting that Bitcoin has drawn relative strength even as global liquidity deteriorates.

However, no asset can compare to gold in 2025, up 16%.

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]]> https://earlybirdsinvest.com/tariffs-caused-bitcoin-to-decline-less-than-equities-or-oil-yet-more-than-bonds-or-gold/feed/ 0 29876 Report: Russia Leveraging Crypto for Oil Trade to Bypass Sanctions https://earlybirdsinvest.com/report-russia-leveraging-crypto-for-oil-trade-to-bypass-sanctions/ https://earlybirdsinvest.com/report-russia-leveraging-crypto-for-oil-trade-to-bypass-sanctions/#respond Sun, 16 Mar 2025 22:40:36 +0000 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/report-russia-leveraging-crypto-for-oil-trade-to-bypass-sanctions/

Russia has reportedly turned to cryptocurrencies to facilitate its oil trade with India and China, using digital assets to circumvent Western sanctions.

While fiat currencies like the UAE dirham still dominate the majority of transactions, digital assets are becoming a small but growing component of the country’s energy trade.

Deepening Crypto Adoption

The development was first reported by Reuters, which, citing unidentified sources, stated that Russian oil companies are using Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), and stablecoins like Tether (USDT) to convert Chinese yuan and Indian rupees into rubles.

According to the report, a Chinese buyer can pay for Russian oil in yuan to an offshore trading company. An intermediary then converts the funds into crypto before transferring them through multiple accounts. Finally, the digital assets are exchanged for rubles in Russia, allowing transactions to bypass traditional banking networks.

This method is said to have proven particularly useful in skipping Moscow’s need for U.S. dollars. It also aligns with legislative changes Russia made in 2024, permitting the use of digital currencies in international trade.

Although the Bank of Russia has put in place a strict ban on domestic crypto payments, the government has encouraged their use in cross-border transactions, signaling a pragmatic approach to maintaining economic stability.

Limited Crypto Trading for Select Investors

Recently, the bank proposed a three-year trial allowing select high-networth investors to trade crypto under strict regulatory oversight. Going by reports, the initiative, announced on March 12, is intended to improve market transparency while maintaining control over digital asset activities in the country.

Last year, Finance Minister Anton Siluanov confirmed that Russian businesses are using cryptocurrencies to navigate economic restrictions imposed by the United States and its allies following Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

The trend isn’t unique to Russia. Other blacklisted nations, such as Venezuela and Iran, have also turned to crypto to keep their economies afloat. However, the oil exporting giant’s adoption of virtual currencies in its energy trade marks a major escalation in its efforts to sidestep the restrictions placed on it.

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