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As Bitcoin gradually recovers from its recent breakdown below the $100,000 mark, it appears to have triggered a fresh wave of bearish activity from investors. Its market dynamics are about to transition as key metrics such as the Funding Rates on the Binance platform have taken a negative turn.

Binance Traders Betting Against Bitcoin

In a dramatic bounce, Bitcoin has reclaimed the $105,000 price mark and is slowly approaching $106,000. While BTC has recovered, the impressive run has been met with negative sentiment, particularly from investors on Binance, the largest cryptocurrency exchange.

Darkfost, a verified author for CryptoQuant, reported that funding rates on the Binance exchange have declined sharply, signaling a shift in trader sentiment. Data from the expert reveals that the rates dropped to the -0.0033 level just as BTC swiftly bounced back since this past weekend.

This scenario implies that traders are progressively placing bets on further decline, indicating that bearish pressure is building on Binance. Negative funding rates may signal pessimism, but historically, they have also preceded short squeezes. As the price of Bitcoin navigates increased volatility and shifting momentum, this is a crucial period to observe.

According to the on-chain expert, negative financing rates suggest that most open positions are currently short as investors question whether the recent upward move is sustainable. Although this may initially appear to be negative, markets often move against the crowd, particularly when there is an overcrowded short side.

Furthermore, Darkfost has drawn attention to past scenarios, particularly in September last year. During the period, the market constantly shifted in the opposite direction whenever Binance’s funding rates fell into negative territory, whether in the short or medium term.

However, the sole exception was when new tariff policies were announced, momentarily altering market dynamics. If shorts persistently increase on the Binance platform, Darkfost is confident that these positions could eventually bolster the rally that started earlier this week.

Thus far, the expert has offered one key takeaway, stating that it is crucial to understand that the natural tendency of traders leans toward longing the market, which makes this current signal more remarkable.

BTC To Surge To A New All-Time High

After rallying earlier this week, BTC is currently facing significant resistance at the $106,500 threshold. However, this resistance level could give way soon, as Michael Van De Poppe, a market expert, has predicted a major rally to new all-time highs.

According to the expert, Bitcoin is stalling at levels below $106,500 until the next significant surge to new highs occurs. Van De Poppe believes that the anticipated move is only a matter of time, and BTC is likely to reach a new peak in July. Therefore, the expert suggests “buying the dip now is the best strategy.”

Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

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Bitcoin is currently consolidating in a tight range between two major historical price levels—the all-time high (ATH) of $112,000 and the previous cycle’s peak at $103,600, set back in December. Despite heightened global tensions, particularly the escalating conflict between Israel and Iran, Bitcoin has held firm above key demand zones, signaling strong bullish intent even in an uncertain macro environment.

Market participants are closely watching this consolidation phase, as it may serve as the base for Bitcoin’s next expansive move. Bulls appear confident, with price action showing resilience against multiple dips, and strong buyer interest emerging near the $104K mark.

Supporting this bullish structure, fresh insights from CryptoQuant reveal a notable decline in CDD (Coin Days Destroyed) Momentum below the zero level over recent weeks. This metric, which compares the average CDD over the past 30 days to that of the previous month, highlights a reduction in spending activity by long-term holders. Historically, this kind of behavior reflects conviction among experienced investors and often signals the start of new accumulation phases.

Bitcoin Fundamentals Strengthen Amid Volatility And Uncertainty

Bitcoin continues to confuse both bulls and bears as it consolidates within a tight range, failing to produce a clear breakout or breakdown. While short-term traders remain on edge, Bitcoin’s fundamentals appear to be strengthening beneath the surface. Institutional adoption is on the rise, long-term supply is tightening, and the amount of BTC held on centralized exchanges continues to decline—a classic sign of increased investor confidence and long-term accumulation.

Meanwhile, global tensions and macroeconomic uncertainty remain elevated. The Middle East conflict between Israel and Iran has shaken markets, while fears of rising inflation and US Treasury yields add additional pressure. Furthermore, geopolitical shifts in global trade dynamics are fueling a volatile environment. Yet, Bitcoin appears to thrive in this chaos, reinforcing its narrative as an emerging store of value and alternative to traditional financial systems.

CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler shared key insights into this long-term strength by analyzing the Coin Days Destroyed (CDD) Momentum indicator. This metric measures how actively long-held coins are moving. A drop below zero typically signals reduced selling from long-term holders, indicating accumulation rather than distribution.

In recent weeks, CDD Momentum has shown a sustained decline below the zero level, aligning with a notable slowdown in older coin transfers. After multiple local peaks earlier in the year, this cooling-off period suggests that experienced investors are now stepping back from the market, not by exiting, but by choosing to hold.

This behavior historically precedes significant upside momentum. If Bitcoin maintains its current support levels and long-term holders continue to stay sidelined, it could set the stage for a powerful breakout and the beginning of a new leg up in the cycle.

BTC Price Analysis: Bulls Hold Support After Rejecting $109K

Bitcoin is currently trading around $106,127 after rejecting resistance near the $109,300 level, as shown in the 4-hour chart. The price attempted to reclaim that key resistance zone but failed to gain momentum, leading to a brief pullback. Despite the rejection, BTC is still holding above the 200-period moving average (red line) and the $106,000 mark, which now acts as short-term support.

Volume remains relatively stable, suggesting that the market is in a wait-and-see mode amid broader uncertainty. The 50 SMA (blue) and 100 SMA (green) have flattened, highlighting the consolidation pattern that has formed between $103,600 and $109,300. This range continues to dominate short-term price action, with bulls defending the lower boundary and bears rejecting higher levels.

A sustained move above $109,300 would open the door for a test of the all-time high at $112,000 and potentially begin a price discovery phase. Conversely, if BTC loses the $103,600 support zone, downside targets could shift toward $100,000.

Until a breakout occurs, this range remains key for short-term traders. Consolidation near key moving averages and support levels suggests that bulls still have a strong grip, but volatility remains a constant risk as macro conditions unfold.

Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView

Editorial Process for bitcoinist is centered on delivering thoroughly researched, accurate, and unbiased content. We uphold strict sourcing standards, and each page undergoes diligent review by our team of top technology experts and seasoned editors. This process ensures the integrity, relevance, and value of our content for our readers.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is forecasting a downturn for the global economy, largely driven by tariff-induced uncertainties.

In its new World Economic Outlook Report, the IMF says that after enduring a “prolonged and unprecedented series of shocks,” the global economy appears to have stabilized.

However, the IMF says the world’s financial landscape now faces significant risks as “uncertainties have climbed to new highs” due to President Trump’s threat to impose historically high tariff rates.

Trump’s tariff agenda has prompted the IMF to revise “markedly” its forecasts for global growth compared to its last update in January.

“For this reason, we expect that the sharp increase on April 2 in both tariffs and uncertainty will lead to a significant slowdown in global growth in the near term. While this is our central scenario— or ‘reference forecast’ — many possible paths exist, reflecting the unpredictability surrounding future trade policy and the varied impact of tariffs across different countries through a diverse set of channels…

The common denominator, however, is that tariffs are a negative supply shock for the economy imposing them, as resources are reallocated toward the production of noncompetitive goods, with a resulting loss of aggregate productivity, lower activity, and higher production costs and prices. Moreover, in the medium term, by reducing competition, tariffs increase the market power of domestic producers, decrease incentives to innovate, and create multiple opportunities for rent seeking. For trading partners, tariffs constitute mostly a negative external demand shock, driving foreign customers away from their products, even if some countries could benefit from the rerouting of trade flows.”

In anticipation of potential disruptions, the IMF says it has revised down its projection for global trade growth by 1.5%, with a “slight recovery” forecasted for next year.

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Bitcoin fund market premiums have turned negative, with data from CryptoQuant showing the 7-day EMA also falling below zero. This indicates that the market price of Bitcoin funds is now trading at a discount to their net asset value (NAV), indicating reduced demand for these products.

A negative premium reflects bearish sentiment or a lower appetite for exposure through funds. This is in line with recent data from Farside, which showed that spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced net outflows of $93.2 million on March 28, following ten consecutive days of inflows.

Previous CryptoSlate insights reported cooling investor sentiment and reduced demand for Bitcoin fund exposure. Such outflows contribute to the negative premiums observed in Bitcoin funds as selling pressure increases and market prices dip below net asset values.

The declining premium also reflects broader changes in the structure of the market. Arbitrage opportunities have narrowed as spot Bitcoin ETFs gain traction and become more efficient. This compresses premiums and pushes fund prices closer to NAV. In some cases, especially during periods of selling pressure, they dip below NAV and trade at a discount.

Retail interest, typically a driver of high premiums, appears to be fading. Institutional flows are more price-sensitive and less speculative, contributing to more stable or negative premiums.

This apparent contradiction starts making sense when looking at how the market behaved in the past week. The funding rate in perpetual futures contracts ensures that the contract price aligns with the spot price by facilitating periodic payments between long and short position holders.

A negative funding rate, as observed on March 25 and March 26, means shorts are paying longs, suggesting that the contract price is below the spot price — a hallmark of bearish sentiment where traders anticipate a price decline. On March 25, the funding rate dropped to -0.040%, and it remained at this level throughout March 26, according to data from CoinGlass.

However, liquidation data tells a different story. Over a one-hour period, short liquidations totaled $14.19 million compared to just $671,540 for longs, and over four hours, shorts saw $23.50 million in liquidations against $2.28 million for longs. Short liquidations occur when the price rises, forcing short traders to buy back contracts at higher prices to cover their positions, often amplifying the upward movement.

How can a negative funding rate, indicative of bearish sentiment, align with predominantly short liquidations, which suggest a price rally? To answer this, we turn to Bitcoin’s spot price in the past week.

On March 20, Bitcoin closed at $84,175.02. The price dipped slightly to $84,053.96 on March 21 and further to $83,843.18 on March 22, but it began a steady climb thereafter, reaching $86,142.15 on March 23 and $87,512.12 on March 24.

This upward trend, a roughly 4% gain from March 20 to March 24, was accompanied by a positive funding rate, peaking at 0.050% on March 24. A positive funding rate, where longs pay shorts, reflects a contract price above the spot price, consistent with the bullish price movement and suggesting that traders were willing to pay a premium to hold long positions.

The turning point came on March 25. Bitcoin opened at $87,515.76, slightly above the previous day’s close, and reached a high of $88,564.14, continuing the upward momentum. However, the price pulled back to close at $87,424.41, a modest decline of $87.71 from March 24.

On March 26, the price opened at $87,488.28, dipped to a low of $87,075.71, but rallied to close at $88,016.46 — a gain of $592.05 from the previous day’s close. This price action confirms the occurrence of a rally — albeit with some consolidation — that would have triggered the significant short liquidations observed. This means that short traders, betting on a price decline, were caught off guard by the upward movement, leading to a short squeeze where they were forced to buy back contracts at higher prices.

However, the negative funding rate on these days suggests that the futures market, on average, remained bearish. The funding rate is calculated over a fixed period, often every eight hours, based on the average difference between the contract and spot prices. While the intraday price spikes on March 25 and March 26 drove short liquidations, the average contract price over the funding periods was likely below the spot price, reflecting a broader expectation of a price correction. This expectation may have been fueled by the price increase in the past week, which could have led traders to see the market as overbought as the price rallied.

On March 25, Bitcoin’s price ranged from a low of $86,322.37 to a high of $88,564.14 — a $2,241.77 swing. This volatility likely contributed to the disconnect between the funding rate and liquidations. The short liquidations were a reaction to the intraday rally, particularly the push toward $88,564.14. However, the subsequent pullback to $87,424.41 on March 25 and the dip to $87,075.71 on March 26 may have dragged the average contract price below the spot price, resulting in a negative funding rate.

This illustrates the timing mismatch between funding rate calculations and real-time market movements. While liquidations occur instantly in response to price changes, the funding rate reflects a longer-term average, capturing the prevailing sentiment over the funding period.

The post Short liquidations contradict negative funding rates in perpetual futures appeared first on CryptoSlate.

The volatility mirrored a broader risk-off sentiment, with global equity markets also sliding during this period. However, Bitcoin’s price recovered some ground toward the latter half of March, stabilizing between $82,000 and $85,000 as market anxieties cooled.

This turbulence significantly impacted the Coinbase Premium Index, which is widely used to gauge US investor sentiment. A positive premium indicates stronger US demand, while a negative premium suggests weaker demand relative to international markets. Throughout March 2025, the index remained predominantly negative, signaling lower US demand. 

The Coinbase Premium Index tracks the difference in Bitcoin’s trading price on Coinbase versus other major exchanges such as Binance, Bitstamp, and OKX. Since Coinbase has a large US-based customer base, the index effectively measures the sentiment and behavior of American investors.

A rising premium often signals robust institutional or retail buying in the US, while a falling or negative premium suggests that domestic investors are offloading Bitcoin or demonstrating lower interest relative to their global counterparts.

In March 2025, the Coinbase Premium Index consistently showed a negative reading, with values frequently ranging from -3% to -6%. This persistent discount indicated that Bitcoin prices on Coinbase lagged behind those on international platforms, reflecting softer demand from US investors. The negative trend mirrors the significant macroeconomic developments in the United States, contributing to reduced risk appetite among domestic traders.

Several US-specific factors were key in pushing the Coinbase Premium Index into negative territory throughout March. The Trump administration’s decision to impose 25% tariffs on Mexican and Canadian imports and a 10% tariff on Chinese goods introduced fresh uncertainty into financial markets.

These policies triggered concerns about rising costs for US businesses and consumers, dampening investor sentiment. As traditional markets sold off in response to these trade tensions, risk assets like Bitcoin experienced heightened volatility, leading US investors to reduce their exposure to speculative assets.

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq both entered correction territory in early March, falling more than 10% from their February highs. This sharp equity downturn likely prompted many investors to liquidate Bitcoin holdings to cover losses elsewhere or raise cash amid declining risk appetite. As a result, Coinbase prices trended lower relative to global platforms.

Despite the predominantly negative trend, the Coinbase Premium Index briefly spiked into positive territory on March 14–15, climbing from around +1% to +2%. This shift aligned with a short-lived stabilization in Bitcoin’s price after it found support around the $80,000 mark. 

The Fed’s decision to maintain rates without signaling imminent hikes temporarily relieved financial markets. While broader concerns persisted, this perceived stability encouraged some US investors to resume dip-buying in risk assets like Bitcoin, temporarily driving Coinbase prices higher.

However, this positive momentum proved short-lived. By March 16, the index had returned to negative territory as macroeconomic uncertainty persisted.

The prolonged negative premium highlighted a risk-averse environment in which American investors were less willing to accumulate Bitcoin, especially amid escalating trade tensions, a volatile stock market, and stagnant monetary policy.

The brief premium spike in mid-March reflected a momentary shift in sentiment tied to improved short-term outlooks in financial markets. However, this optimism quickly faded with the broader macroeconomic backdrop remaining unstable. The data shows that while Bitcoin operates independently of traditional markets in some respects, it remains susceptible to economic and geopolitical developments — particularly in the US.

The post Caution from US investors leaves Coinbase Premium negative appeared first on CryptoSlate.

Bitcoin is trading below the $85K mark as the entire market struggles to hold above key demand levels. The recent sell-off has triggered panic selling and increased speculation about the future of BTC, with many investors fearing that a prolonged bear market could be on the horizon. The rapid price drop has shaken confidence, and sentiment remains deeply bearish across the crypto industry.

Key data from Coinglass reveals that BTC’s Coinbase Premium has retreated into the negative territory recently. This indicates a surge in spot selling over the past few days, which aligns with the large ETF outflows and overall bearish price action. Historically, a negative Coinbase Premium suggests that U.S. investors are offloading BTC at a discount compared to other global exchanges, reinforcing the growing fear in the market.

For Bitcoin to recover, the premium must turn positive again, signaling renewed spot demand. Until then, the market remains fragile, with analysts closely watching whether BTC can reclaim key resistance levels or if further downside is imminent. The coming days will be crucial in determining Bitcoin’s next move as investors await signs of stability amid growing uncertainty.

Bitcoin Continues To Struggle

Bitcoin is trading around $85K as the broader crypto market, particularly altcoins and meme coins, continues to face extreme selling pressure. BTC has lost critical weekly support around the $90K level, and volatility remains a key factor in short-term price action. Bulls must defend current demand zones to prevent further declines and initiate a potential recovery phase.

Crypto analyst Daan shared Coinglass data on X, revealing that BTC’s Coinbase Premium has gone into the negative zone recently. This suggests that a significant amount of spot selling has occurred over the past few days, aligning with large ETF outflows and a prevailing bearish sentiment. Historically, when the Coinbase Premium turns negative, it indicates that US-based traders are offloading BTC at a discount compared to other exchanges, reflecting a lack of confidence in short-term price action.

For Bitcoin to bounce back strongly, the Coinbase Premium must return to positive territory, signaling renewed spot demand. Currently, the premium is attempting to recover following the recent bounce, suggesting that some buying pressure is returning. However, Daan cautions that he will be monitoring this trend closely to determine whether it sustains over the coming days.

The next key resistance levels lie around $88K–$90K, and a push above these levels could confirm a bullish recovery. However, if selling pressure persists and BTC fails to reclaim lost ground, the price may continue consolidating or even drop further. The coming days will be crucial in defining Bitcoin’s next move as the market navigates ongoing volatility and uncertainty.

BTC Price Action

Bitcoin is trading at $84,900, sitting below the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA) but still holding above the 200-day moving average (MA). The price has dropped 18% since Monday, marking one of the most significant corrections of the year. Bulls are struggling to reclaim key demand levels, and market sentiment remains cautious as investors monitor price action for signs of a recovery.

If BTC holds above the $85K level in the coming days, bulls could attempt to push the price toward $88K, a short-term resistance level that needs to be reclaimed for a potential recovery rally. However, the lack of strong demand at current levels is a concern, as bearish momentum has dominated the market in recent sessions.

On the downside, a break below $85K would indicate further weakness and could lead to a deeper correction into lower demand levels. Key support areas to watch in case of a breakdown include $82K and $80K, where buyers may look to step in. The coming days will be crucial in determining whether BTC can stabilize and initiate a rebound or if further downside movement is on the horizon.

Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView