For most of this cycle, global liquidity is one of the most accurate indicators for predicting Bitcoin price action. The relationship between expanding money supply and growing risk assets is well established, and Bitcoin follows its script very closely. But recently we have been paying close attention to a few other data points that are statistically even more accurate when predicting where Bitcoin is heading next. Together, these metrics help to draw more clearly whether the recent stagnation in Bitcoin represents a short-term pause or the beginning of a long integration phase.

Bitcoin price trends driven by a global liquidity shift

Relationships between Global liquidity, especially M2 money supply, and Bitcoin prices It’s hard to ignore. As liquidity increases, Bitcoin tends to gather. Bitcoin will have a hard time with contracts.

The correlation measured for this current cycle is an impressive 88.44%. Adding a 70-day offset will result in a higher correlation of 91.23%. This means that changes in liquidity often precedes the movement of Bitcoin. The framework has proven to be extremely accurate in capturing a wide range of trends, with cycle dips lined up to tightening global liquidity and subsequent recovery reflecting updated expansions.

Still, there has been a noticeable divergence recently. Liquidity continues to rise, sending signals of support for the rise in Bitcoin prices, but Bitcoin itself has stagnated after creating a record high. This difference is worth monitoring, but it does not override the broader relationship. In fact, it may suggest that Bitcoin simply lags behind liquidity conditions, as it did at other points in the cycle.

Stablecoin Supply Signaling Bitcoin Market Surge

While global liquidity reflects the broader macro environment, Stablecoin Supply offers a more direct view of capital ready to enter digital assets. When USDT, USDC and other stub coins are minted in large quantities, this represents “dry powder” waiting to spin into Bitcoin, and ultimately represents a more speculative altcoin. Surprisingly, the correlation here is even stronger than M2 at 95.24% without offset. All major inflows of Stablecoin liquidity preceded or accompanied by the surge in Bitcoin prices.

What makes this metric powerful is its peculiarity. Unlike global liquidity covering the entire financial system, Stablecoin’s growth comes from a cryptographic origin. This represents the direct potential demand within this market. But again, we see divergence. Stablecoin Supply is expanding aggressively, creating new highs and Bitcoin is integrated. Historically, this divergence does not last long. This is because this capital will eventually flow into risk assets in search of returns. Whether this is an imminent inverted or suggests slow rotation is still unknown, but the strength of the correlation becomes one of the most important metrics to track in the short to medium term.

Bitcoin prediction power of gold’s high correlation delays

At first glance, Bitcoin and Gold do not share a consistently strong correlation. Their relationships are choppy, sometimes they move together, sometimes they branch out. However, applying the same 10-week delay will give you a clearer image when applied to global liquidity data. Over this cycle, gold with a 70-day offset shows a 92.42% correlation with Bitcoin, which is higher than the global M2 itself.

The alignment is impressive. Both assets have bottomed out at about the same time, but their major gatherings and integration have since followed a similar trajectory. Recently, gold has been trapped in a long-term integration phase, and Bitcoin appears to reflect this in its own choppy behavior. If this correlation holds, Bitcoin could remain bound to range until at least mid-November, reflecting stagnant behavior in gold. But now Gold is technically strong and ready to go for the highest ever high, so once the “digital gold” story is reasserted, Bitcoin could soon follow.

Bitcoin’s next move is predicted by key market metrics

To sum up, these three metrics, global liquidity, Stablecoin Supply, and Gold, provide a powerful framework for predicting the next move in Bitcoin. Global M2 remains a reliable macro anchor, especially with a delay of 10 weeks. Stablecoin’s growth provides the clearest and most direct signal of incoming crypto demand, suggesting that its accelerated expansion will increase pressure on higher prices. Meanwhile, Gold’s delay correlation refers to the period of integration before potential breakouts in the coming weeks, providing a surprising but valuable predictive lens.

In the short term, this confluence of signals suggests that Bitcoin continues to sculpt sideways, reflecting gold stagnation as liquidity increases in the background. However, if gold breaks into new highs and Stablecoin continues to be issued at its current pace, Bitcoin could be set up for a strong year-end gathering. For now, perseverance is important, but the data suggests that conditions based on Bitcoin’s long-term trajectory are preferred.

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Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making an investment decision.

Testimony regarding the fact that some of the stolen funds from IRS Special Agent Stephen George’s Hanfen Lin had been placed in tornado cash seemed reliable enough to prevent the defense from filing a claim of tort.

On Monday, the defense of the tornado cash trial came to mind to file a motion for the Miss Trial after saying that FBI special agent Joel DeCapua had not tracked the tracking of funds stolen from the case’s first witness to Tornado Cash Mixing Services.

However, after today’s testimony from IRS special agent Stephen George, the second witness, the second witness who prosecutors sought training to track assets on public blockchains, seems slim at best to file a complaint of dispute.

Special Agent George hired the accounting principals from LIFO (last, first out) that included Etherscan.io (Ethereum’s Block Explorer), Chainalysis’ Reactor, and TRM Labs, and spoke about how they used the TRM Lab to track stolen funds.

According to data from special agent George, approximately 149,000 USDT was sent from Lynn’s crypto.com account through a series of wallets. About a third of this amount was exchanged for 9.78 ETH (worth around $47,000 at the time) before moving the Tornado Cash on November 15th, 2021.

Special Agent George admitted that, according to initial disclosures from prosecutors, he was not tasked with tracking these stolen funds from crypto.com to tornado cash, but began to do so at the end of June or early July this year.

This defense was thorough in cross-examination of special agent George, but it seemed to struggle to find holes in his story and the notable flaws in the analytical process.

Special Agent George admitted that his analysis may not have been perfect, but said that the results of his analysis using chain analysis and tracing tools from TRM Labs independently produced similar results.

That being said, the defense shared that he plans to complete Cross Agent Special Agent George at the beginning of tomorrow’s trial.

So, there is still a possibility that he could find a way to trust some of the data he presented, but based on today’s cross-examination, it doesn’t seem possible.

See this thread in X for a more detailed explanation of what happened in court today.

The sudden awakening of old Bitcoin (BTC) whale wallets may be linked to a hack, according to on-chain analysis by Coinbase director Conor Grogan. 

Posting on the social media platform X, Grogan makes several observations about last week’s sudden movement of whale wallets holding $8 billion in BTC after lying dormant for more than 14 years. 

Grogan notes that one of the wallets appears to have made a test transaction on the Bitcoin Cash (BCH) network just hours before the big move happened, suggesting that whoever was responsible for the transfer was trying to go unnoticed.

“There is a small possibility that the $8 billion in BTC that recently woke up were hacked or compromised private keys

I found a single BCH test transaction from one of the BTC whale clusters… followed by the full amount. An hour later, the BTC wallets began to move. 

There is a possibility that the owner was testing the private key in a way that wouldn’t get noticed, as BCH isn’t monitored heavily by whale-watching services

What makes me say this is the other BCH wallets have not been touched at all; why wouldn’t they also sweep these?

This is all extreme speculation, but the movements are extremely odd here. I do not think that this is an exchange wallet due to the BCH activity, and given the BTC transfers appear to be all manual.”

Bitcoin Cash is a hard fork of Bitcoin. Wallets that held BTC before the 2017 Bitcoin Cash fork may also hold the same amount of BCH.

Grogan appears to be suggesting that the BCH test transfer could have been the hacker’s way of checking whether they had access to the wallet before transferring the massive BTC stack.

The wallets in question first accumulated Bitcoin when BTC was trading at $0.78.

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Crypto analyst StockMoney Lizards has provided the latest updates Bitcoin price actionpredicting that the flagship code could reach $145,000 later this year. Analysts hinted at a doji pattern that supports this bullish prediction.

Analysts predict a rise in Bitcoin price to $145,000

in xPostStockmoney Lizards said the medium-term target for Bitcoin prices ranges between $135,000 and $145,000. He’s hoping BTC reaching these targets Later this year, between September and October. The analyst also touched on current price action and why he believes the flagship code will reach such a high height.

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Stockmoney noted that Bitcoin prices are traded at the higher levels of the correction channel, forming some doji at this level. He admitted that market participants didn’t know how many bounces they saw from BTC or at what level the cipher tested. He increased the chances of a local bottom being in BTC can retest $90,000 Up to $94,000.

Analysts said if he had to bet, he would probably predict that Bitcoin prices would again cause a height in the $90,000 range. BTC fell to a minimum of $98,000 last week, despite escalating Tensions between Israel and Iran. Bitcoin then recovered following a ceasefire between the two countries.

Stockmoney confirmed that the latest Bitcoin price action was a bullish formation as the flagship code had an impulsive move. He added that the current price measures are not the usual rotation of money that older traders sell and newer traders stack up at low ranges. Analysts also showed that BTC’s rally It is not even driven by the derivatives market.

BTC reaching at least $135,000

Crypto-analyst Crypto’s Titan It reflects Stockmoney’s prediction that Bitcoin could reach at least $135,000. in xPostanalysts declared that BTC’s path to this price target remains the same. He said Bitcoin is currently challenging its first Fibonacci expansion for $107,000 after breaking the key level and retesting.

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Once Bitcoin prices clear this Fibonacci extension, Titan from Crypto believes the next stop will be $135,000. He made it clear that the market structure supports this move, but it remains to be seen whether the momentum will continue. His accompanying charts showed that BTC could reach this Fibonacci Extension $135,000 By September, we will collaborate with Stockmoney’s forecast. The chart also suggests that BTC can be as much as $150,000 at some point.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin prices have been traded for around $108,200 over the past 24 hours. data From CoinMarketCap.

Pixabay featured images, charts on tradingView.com

Two of the most chaotic token explosions of the year – Movement Lab’s Movement Scandal and the collapse of the Mantra’s OM – are sending shockwaves through the crypto market production business.

In both cases, a rapid price crash unlocked the hidden actor, suspicious tokens, revealing a secondary contract that claimed blind market participants to blind.

Unlike traditional finance, where market manufacturers offer orderly bidding spreads in regulated venues, crypto market manufacturers often operate like high stakes trading desks.

They’re not just quoting prices. They negotiate pre-launch token allocations, accept lockups, structuring the liquidity of central exchanges, and sometimes fair or advised interests.

As a result, there is a dark space where liquidity regulations are caught up in private trade, toconemics and, in many cases, insider politics.

In late April, Coindesk Exposé showed that some Movement Lab executives had conspired with their own market makers to abandon the $38 million move in open markets.

Now, some companies are questioning whether they are too casual to trust counterparties. How do you hedge positions if the token unlock schedule is opaque? What happens when a handshake quietly overrides DAO’s suggestion?

“Our approach currently includes a broader preliminary discussion and educational sessions with the project team, ensuring a thorough understanding of the mechanisms of market production,” Hong Kong-based Metalpha’s Metalpha Making Division told Coindesk in an interview.

“Our trading structure has evolved to emphasize long-term strategic alignment against short-term performance metrics, which incorporates certain safeguards against unethical behaviors such as excessive token damping and artificial trading volumes.”

Behind the scenes, the conversation is intensifying. The terms of the transaction are being examined more carefully. Some liquidity desks are reassessing how they take on token risks.

Others are demanding more severe transparency – or walking completely away from dark projects.

“The project no longer accepts an honorable reputation at face value. We have witnessed whether even established players can exploit shadow allocations or engage in harmful token sales practices.” “The era of presumed trust concludes,” he argued.

Beneath the refined surface of the token is the announcement of the announcement and the sorting of market production agreements. There is another layer of cryptocurrency. In the secondary OTC market, locked tokens quietly exchange hands before they hit the public eye before they win the cliff.

Trading beneath these tables, often struck between early supporters, funds and syndicates, is currently distorting supply dynamics and findings of distorted prices, some traders say. And for market makers tasked with providing orderly fluidity, they are becoming increasingly opaque and dangerous variables.

“The secondary OTC market has changed the dynamics of the industry,” said Min Jung, an analyst at Presto Research, which runs the market production division. “When you look at tokens with questionable price actions like $layer, $om, $mov, etc., they are often the most aggressively traded in the secondary OTC market.”

“The entire supply and vesting schedule is skewed due to these out-of-market transactions, and because of liquid funds, the real challenge is to get a sense of when the supply is actually unlocked,” Jung added.

In a market where prices are fiction and supplies are negotiated in the back room, actual risk is not volatility for traders. I believe float is what the white paper and founders say.

Read more: Movement Lab secretly promises millions of people with tokens that promise to be advisors, leaked documentary show

Bitcoin prices have begun a new increase beyond the $80,000 zone. BTC is currently consolidating profits and could modify some to test the $80,500 zone.

• Bitcoin has begun a new increase beyond the $80,000 zone.
• The price is traded above $80,500, and is a simple moving average every 100 hours.
• On the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken), there was a break above a key bearish trend line with resistance.
• Clearing the $83,500 zone could cause the pair to start another increase.

Bitcoin prices jump over 5%

Bitcoin prices have started a new increase from the $74,500 zone. BTC formed the base and acquired the pace for movements above the $78,500 and $80,000 resistance levels.

The Bulls pumped prices above $80,500 resistance. The BTC/USD pair hourly wage chart had a break above a key bearish trendline with resistance of $78,800. The pair cleared the $82,500 resistance zone. The high was formed at $83,548, and the price currently combines profits above the 23.6% FIB retracement level of upward movement to $83,548, a swing of $74,572.

Bitcoin prices are currently trading above $80,200, with a simple moving average every 100 hours. The advantage is that immediate resistance is close to the $83,200 level. The first important resistance is close to the $83,500 level.

The next important resistance is $84,500. Over $84,500 resistance could lead to even higher prices. If stated, the price could rise and test a resistance level of $85,800. Any further profit could potentially send the price towards the $88,000 level.

Is dip supported in BTC?

If Bitcoin can’t rise beyond the $83,500 resistance zone, it could begin a negative side fix. Instant support on the downside is close to the $81,400 level. The first major support is close to the $80,500 level.

The following support is approaching an upward movement level from $74,572 Swing Low to $83,548, near the $79,500 zone or 50% FIB retracement level. Any further losses could send the price to $78,000 in the short term. The main support is $75,000.

Technical indicators:

HOURLY MACD – MACD is currently increasing its pace in the bullish zone.

Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – BTC/USD’s RSI is above 50 levels.

Key support levels – $81,400, then $80,500.

Major resistance levels – $83,500 and $84,500.

Crypto analyst Trend Diva has provided an in-depth analysis of the current Ethereum price action. She revealed that ETH is still moving inside an ascending triangle but warned that it could suffer further downside pressure if it fails to stay above a crucial support level. 

Ethereum Price Still Inside An Ascending Triangle Despite Recent Crash

In a TradingView post, Trend Diva revealed that the Ethereum price is moving inside a clear ascending triangle. The upper boundary acts as long-term resistance, and the lower boundary provides dynamic support. This analysis comes amid ETH’s recent decline below $2,000. 

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The analyst noted that after a steady climb, the Ethereum price started showing weakness, confirmed by a head and shoulders pattern, which she claimed is a common sign that the trend might reverse. This weakness led to a strong drop for ETH, bringing its price down to the key support zone around $2,000. 

Trend Diva stated that this support area is important for the Ethereum price because it meets with a major trendline, making it a likely spot where buyers could step in. She added that the volume profile also shows a lot of activity in this zone, meaning traders have been interested in these levels before.

 The analyst further remarked that if the Ethereum price holds above this $2,000 support, it could bounce towards the $2,800 level, which represents a previous resistance. However, she revealed that a breakdown below the trendline shifts the bias bearish towards $1,414. 

For now, as long as ETH stays above $2,000, a rebound to $2,800 is still on the horizon. 

It is worth mentioning that the Ethereum price briefly lost the $2,000 support level following a crypto market crash on Sunday. As such, there is also the possibility that it could drop to as low as $1,414 as Trend Diva warned. 

A Drop To As Low As $1,250 Is Also On The Cards

In an X post, crypto analyst Ali Martinez said the Ethereum price seems to be breaking out of a parallel channel. He added that ETH could drop to as low as $1,250 if momentum sustains. ETH whales look to be doing everything possible to defend the $2,000 support zone and prevent Ethereum from dropping to these new lows. 

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Martinez revealed that the largest whales on the network have bought 330,000 ETH in the last 48 hours. This massive whale accumulation could help prevent further downside pressure and possibly spark a bullish reversal for the Ethereum price. 

At the time of writing, the Ethereum price is trading at around $2,065, down over 5% in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap.

Featured image from iStock, chart from Tradingview.com