Model – Earlybirds Invest https://earlybirdsinvest.com Latest Crypto News Fri, 12 Sep 2025 04:33:51 +0000 en-US hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=6.9.9 https://i0.wp.com/earlybirdsinvest.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/cropped-New-Project-2024-12-17T235703.455.png?fit=32%2C32&ssl=1 Model – Earlybirds Invest https://earlybirdsinvest.com 32 32 240146708 Aave reduces Scroll exposure amid turmoil in governance model https://earlybirdsinvest.com/aave-reduces-scroll-exposure-amid-turmoil-in-governance-model/ https://earlybirdsinvest.com/aave-reduces-scroll-exposure-amid-turmoil-in-governance-model/#respond Fri, 12 Sep 2025 04:33:50 +0000 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/aave-reduces-scroll-exposure-amid-turmoil-in-governance-model/

Aave, the largest decentralized lending protocol, has proposed reducing its exposure to governance risks within the Ethereum layer-2 network, Scroll’s ecosystem.

The initiative, submitted on Sept. 11 by the Aave Chan Initiative (ACI), comes amid mounting instability in Scroll’s decentralized governance model.

The proposal outlines several defensive measures to protect Aave’s users and liquidity pools. These include raising the reserve factor for all listed assets to 90%, lowering supply caps to existing levels, and cutting borrowing caps for all borrowable assets.

According to ACI, these steps will help contain exposure to Scroll-based assets, reinforce protocol safety through conservative risk parameters, and ensure Aave can respond swiftly if governance disruptions escalate.

ACI pointed out that the proposal’s implementation will proceed through the Direct to AIP process, which allows for faster deployment of urgent changes.

Data from DeFiLlama shows that Aave currently holds about $6 million in total value locked (TVL) on Scroll, making it the chain with one of its smallest liquidity pools.

Scroll’s DAO issues

The urgency of Aave’s proposal stems from internal turmoil at Scroll’s decentralized autonomous organization (DAO). Scroll announced earlier in the day that it had halted new proposals within its DAO as part of a plan to redesign governance.

Scroll said the decision would allow experimentation with governance models emphasizing efficiency, effectiveness, and alignment. The team also stressed that the pause aims to safeguard stability in the short term while laying the groundwork for sustainable growth.

Meanwhile, Scroll stressed that proposals that have already been approved will proceed. However, fresh submissions will be paused until the new structure is introduced.

This move comes after leadership turbulence within the DAO. Olimpio, a Scroll delegate, confirmed that the DAO’s lead, known as Eugene, resigned earlier in the week.

According to Olimpio, this departure has left the community facing uncertainty, with several proposals now stalled. These include a treasury management initiative, the formation of a governance council, and a test of a DAO timelock mechanism.

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Bitcoin Cycle Peak May Extend Into 2026, Decay Model Shows https://earlybirdsinvest.com/bitcoin-cycle-peak-may-extend-into-2026-decay-model-shows/ https://earlybirdsinvest.com/bitcoin-cycle-peak-may-extend-into-2026-decay-model-shows/#respond Sat, 06 Sep 2025 19:21:52 +0000 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/bitcoin-cycle-peak-may-extend-into-2026-decay-model-shows/ Bitcoin prices have dipped by over 10% since establishing a new all-time high (ATH) of $124,457 on August 14. As with all previous retracements after a new ATH, this recent correction has sparked much speculation on the market peak price.  The Bitcoin Decay Channel, a market prediction model, has provided insights into the potential market top price zones for the present cycle.

Bitcoin Decay Channel Hints At $200K–$290K Top, Tips Cycle To Extend To 2026

In an X post on September 5, a Bitcoin researcher with the X username Sminston With shares some important data from the Bitcoin Decay Channel on a potential peak price for the current market cycle.

For context, the Bitcoin Decay Channel is a long-term logarithmic regression model that attempts to map Bitcoin’s price cycles, specifically its historical peaks and bottoms, within statistically derived boundaries. This pricing model shows that while Bitcoin follows boom-and-bust patterns, its growth rate decays over time as each cycle delivers smaller percentage gains than the last.

Bitcoin

Notably, data from the Bitcoin Decay channel chart shows the premier cryptocurrency is steadily climbing within the 0.05 quantile support and upper bound resistance lines, with oscillations that mark historical overheated zones. The embedded oscillator suggests BTC is not yet at a euphoric peak, leaving room for further upside before a long-term top forms.

Based on more data, Sminston With explains that the present Bitcoin market cycle could see a price top between late 2025 and late 2026. If Bitcoin peaks in December 2025, the price range would sit between $205,000 and $230,000.  However, should the cycle extend into 2026, projections rise incrementally, i.e. $208,000-$235,000 by Jan 2026, $219,000–$250,000 by April 2026, $230,000-$265,000 by July 2026, $243,000-$282,000 by October 2026, and as high as $250,000–$292,000 by year-end 2026.

Regardless of which price top scenario, the Bitcoin Decay Channel presents a potential peak zone between $205,000 and $292,000 within the next 12-15 months. This presents a possible price gain of 86% in the base case and 167% in a bull case scenario.

Bitcoin Price Outlook

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $110,900, reflecting a 0.45% price increase in the past day. Meanwhile, weekly gains are now up by 2.89% showing a moderate recovery. Interestingly, Coincodex analysts are predicting the premier cryptocurrency to maintain this rebound, rising to $121,276 in five days. With a market cap of $2.2 trillion, Bitcoin remains the largest currency and fifth largest in the world. 

Bitcoin

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This Galaxy Watch clearance deal could be your LAST CHANCE at this classic model — score $287 off! https://earlybirdsinvest.com/this-galaxy-watch-clearance-deal-could-be-your-last-chance-at-this-classic-model-score-287-off/ https://earlybirdsinvest.com/this-galaxy-watch-clearance-deal-could-be-your-last-chance-at-this-classic-model-score-287-off/#respond Sat, 30 Aug 2025 18:03:55 +0000 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/this-galaxy-watch-clearance-deal-could-be-your-last-chance-at-this-classic-model-score-287-off/

We’ve been keeping an eye out for Labor Day smartwatch deals, but they’ve been slim pickings this weekend. Only one deal we’ve spotted is truly intriguing: The Galaxy Watch 6 Classic 47mm LTE is $192.99 ($287 off) on Best Buy, as the site puts all of its Classic models on clearance.

We don’t know how many Watch 6 Classics are left, but this may be your last chance at a new model, rather than a refurbished one. We also spotted the same 60% off deal at Amazon, though most other sizes come from third-party resellers.

The Galaxy Watch 8 Classic is a respectable smartwatch with fast performance and the rotating bezel that long-time Samsung fans love. But its hard-edged, bulkier design has polarized these same fans, who felt that the old Galaxy Watch 6 Classic design lives up to that old-timey aesthetic much better.

So rather than spend $499 on the new model (or $549 with cellular), you can spend less than half that on the Watch 6 Classic LTE, which is still due to receive three more major version updates through the end of 2027.

✅Recommended if: You have a Galaxy Watch 4 Classic or Watch 5 and want a more traditional design than the newer 8 Classic; you care more about style than getting the newest features; or you hate other Galaxy Watches’ touch bezel controls.

❌Skip this deal if: You care more about a lighter design than a rotating bezel, and would prefer the Galaxy Watch 7 for $199 to get slightly newer hardware and sensors.

You can look elsewhere for the Galaxy Watch 6 Classic, but it’s either refurbished or sold from third-party Amazon sellers that may or may not have truly “new” models. That’s why this is your last chance to grab a Classic with some semblance of quality assurance before it’s off the market for good.


A top-down view of the Samsung Galaxy Watch 8 Classic (left) and Samsung Galaxy Watch 6 Classic (right), both with classic-style watch faces.

(Image credit: Michael Hicks / Android Central)

You can see in the photo above how the Watch 8 Classic and 6 Classic compare; the older model has a more subtle look, but it’s about the same weight and thickness. It has a slightly older Exynos processor, but the same amount of RAM for similar performance, making it capable of running Gemini commands swiftly.

While this model doesn’t have the new health sensors for niche data like your antioxidant index or vascular load, you’re still getting the core Galaxy Watch experience.

Also keep in mind that Samsung always offers enhanced trade-in credit for its old watches. So if the Galaxy Watch 9 series looks more tempting a year from now, this Watch 6 Classic deal will end up being a down payment when you trade it in for something better!

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New Solana Consensus Model ‘Alpenglow’ Enters Community Vote https://earlybirdsinvest.com/new-solana-consensus-model-alpenglow-enters-community-vote/ https://earlybirdsinvest.com/new-solana-consensus-model-alpenglow-enters-community-vote/#respond Mon, 18 Aug 2025 07:41:47 +0000 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/new-solana-consensus-model-alpenglow-enters-community-vote/

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Solana core developers have pushed a sweeping consensus overhaul, “Alpenglow” (SIMD-0326), into the ecosystem’s formal governance track, setting up a validator vote that, if approved, would replace TowerBFT and re-architect finality and validator incentives on mainnet-beta. The proposal’s authors—Quentin Kniep, Kobi Sliwinski, and Roger Wattenhofer—describe Alpenglow as “a major overhaul of Solana’s core consensus protocol,” designed to supplant “the existing Proof-of-History and TowerBFT mechanisms” with a design that targets block finalization “as low as 100–150 milliseconds.”

Voting Process For Solana ‘Alpenglow’ Starts

The governance post lays out a three-phase timeline: discussion through epochs 833–838, stake-weight capture in epoch 839, and a binding vote across epochs 840–842 using claimable vote tokens sent to “Yes,” “No,” or “Abstain” accounts. Passage hinges on a supermajority threshold: Yes must be at least two-thirds of Yes+No, with a 33% quorum that counts abstentions. As of today, Solana is in epoch 834, making the discussion window active and the vote window scheduled several epochs out.

At the heart of Alpenglow is Votor, a direct-vote, leader-pipelined finality protocol that shifts Solana away from on-chain vote transactions and heavy gossip toward off-chain vote exchange with local signature aggregation. Validators vote to notarize or skip blocks; leaders aggregate those votes eight slots later and submit compact proofs. The authors argue this design cuts latency dramatically and reduces bandwidth, while a “20+20” liveliness model aims to tolerate up to 20% adversarial and 20% unresponsive validators without halting progress. “Alpenglow… enables much lower latency, improved fault tolerance, and generally greater protocol efficiency,” the post asserts.

The upgrade also rewires validator economics. Because voting moves off-chain, the SIMD introduces a Validator Admission Ticket (VAT), a fixed per-epoch fee “initially set to 1.6 SOL per epoch,” burned to maintain an economic barrier roughly comparable to today’s on-chain vote-fee regime. Validators are “required to cast exactly one valid vote per slot”; conflicting votes are detectable, and persistent non-participation renders a validator ineligible for rewards and at risk of removal from the active set.

Leaders receive compensation equal to the per-slot vote rewards of the votes they aggregate, plus a flat bonus when they include fast-finalization/finalization certificates. In a follow-up thread post, Wattenhofer explains the 1.6 SOL figure as approximately 80% of current vote costs to ensure no operator is worse off at the “AlpenSwitch.”

If adopted, Alpenglow would make a visible semantic change at the client layer: the authors note that optimistic confirmation would be superseded by actual finality at sub-second timescales. The stated aim is to bring confirmation latencies in line with Web2 user expectations while tightening safety guarantees that were harder to formalize under TowerBFT. The proposal’s documentation points readers to a 50+ page white paper and independent analyses, but emphasizes that the initial rollout focuses on finalization and voting; a new data dissemination protocol, Rotor, would follow in a separate SIMD.

Governance mechanics for the vote mirror Solana’s prior advisory processes but with higher stakes. Vote tokens will be claimable via an adapted Merkle distributor; validators then send those tokens to the designated choice accounts during the epoch-bounded window. The foundation’s governance post states, “If the sum of Yes votes is equal to or greater than 2/3 of the total sum of Yes + No votes, the proposal will pass,” and “Abstain” contributes to quorum but not to the supermajority tally. Stake weights and a public tally script will be published for independent verification.

Community feedback has quickly homed in on operational risk and rollout discipline. One validator-oriented response urges the SIMD authors to embed “a testing, deployment and fallback plan” before a mainnet decision, likening the scope of change to other industry-scale protocol transitions. Others probe specifics around the VAT level, transaction expiry in a post-PoH world, leader equivocation handling, and effects on MEV auctions and client UX when slices of a block are ignored under certain failure modes. These threads underscore that while the performance headline—150 ms finality—is eye-catching, the vote will likely hinge on the comfort level with safety proofs, incentive edge-cases, and the migration path.

At press time, SOL traded at $181.89.

Solana price
SOL rejected at the 0.786 Fib, 1-week chart | Source: SOLUSDT on TradingView.com

Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

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The AI model predicts the Ethereum Cycle Top at $15,000: Analyst https://earlybirdsinvest.com/the-ai-model-predicts-the-ethereum-cycle-top-at-15000-analyst/ https://earlybirdsinvest.com/the-ai-model-predicts-the-ethereum-cycle-top-at-15000-analyst/#respond Mon, 11 Aug 2025 07:32:36 +0000 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/the-ai-model-predicts-the-ethereum-cycle-top-at-15000-analyst/

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The soccer price for the Lion and Player is soft. I hate each of my arcu lorem, ultricy kids, or ullamcorper football.

In an August 10 video entitled “ETH Price Prediction for 2025 (Using AI) – You Are Not Bully enough,” Crypto Analyst Miles Deutscher said Ethereum’s latest breakout has shifted the market beyond “a very important level in the $4,000 zone” to what is considered a structurally strong advance towards a new, outstanding high. “We actually concluded every day,” he pointed out, adding that weekly closures over the same area “has not been closed every week since November 2021” — underscoring the importance of the movement. In the Deutscher framework, nearby it is “a much bigger run confirmation.”

How expensive is Ethereum?

Deutscher centered on analytics on a simple question (how high Ethereum is) and answered it with a fusion of technical context and model-driven probability. Before calling out the AI, he sketched the “eye test” pass, where price discoveries “develop well in this range here between $6,000 and $8,000.”

He even came up with a benchmark in the direction of “I think the price forecast will be $7,000.” To that end, he ran two large language models on a shared input set, and sought odds for a specific price range by the end of 2025.

Related readings

He said the 2025 peak probability of the first model favored continuance. He won $6K by clearing his previous highs around 4.7k, over 60%, over 5K, and around 30%, earning $6K to reach $6K and breaking over $7.5K, and backing about 30% chance to reach $6K to tag 10K this year.

When I enlarge the window until 2026, these odds are essentially raised, with him having confidence from 4.7k to 5k to 5k, about 40% at 6K, about 40% at $7.5k, and an untrivial tail, “In addition to 10k, you get an 18% chance.”

Performing the same exercises on Grok created a more aggressive outline. As Deutscher relayed it, Grok’s “base case could be $10,000.” The $8,000-$15,000 band was in the plausible cycle top range.

He explicitly cited the model’s technical guardrail. “The break above $4,800 marks the new all-time best chase. A break below $3,800 could potentially invalidate bullish papers.” In contrast, his own trade nullification has been strained by the trend, warning that “if Ethereum falls under the daily money noodles, it’s now something like $3,400, structurally, it could start to invalidate bullish moves, at least in the short term, at least in the short term.”

Etheric counter winds

The projection stack is on the macro-to-micro chain of tailwind, which Duteshire claims to be more directly supportive than his previous cycle. He consistently cited positive ETF flows – “We’ll be getting around $17 billion over the last 60 days, $11 billion in July alone,” particularly towing to the etheric side.

He surrounded the recent US policy procedures as a short-term acceleration in on-chain finance, saying that the genius act revealed a series of cryptocurrency treatments and “regulates some of the major stable coins,” thereby expanding the opening for facility yield strategies and tokenization. In his view, these are growth funnels that are particularly Ethereum-centric, as “Ethereum is the largest blockchain that promotes asset tokenization and defi.”

Related readings

Deutscher also combined the flow discussion with observations of market structure: fresh height stability, price resilience marked with “selling… relatively short-lived”, and, if it continues, the turn of Bitcoin domination preceded by a wider alt rotation with the ETH of props.

He emphasized that this did not imply a straight line. Deutscher expects the cycle to vibrate through bitcoin strength, etheric catch-ups, and higher beta Alt expansions than a single monolithic “Altseseason.”

He lays a pencil in the second window that could be until 2026, and warns that “you don’t know what will happen” to match the political and financial calendar points, highlighting the need for a clear invalidation.

Still, the directional conclusion is not clear. The combination of structural influx, clarity of regulations on on-chain finance, and a shift in Ethereum’s technical regime has biased him upside down. “This is a difficult momentum to slow down from short to medium,” he said, adding that the true “FOMO” phase will only begin once ETH is price discovery above the $4,800 peak.

At the time of pressing, ETH traded for $4,303.

Ethereum prices
ETH Price, 1 Weekly Chart | Source: eatusdt on tradingView.com

Featured images created with dall.e, charts on tradingview.com

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Nvidia DLSS 4 transformer model exits beta, set to bring improved graphics to more games https://earlybirdsinvest.com/nvidia-dlss-4-transformer-model-exits-beta-set-to-bring-improved-graphics-to-more-games/ https://earlybirdsinvest.com/nvidia-dlss-4-transformer-model-exits-beta-set-to-bring-improved-graphics-to-more-games/#respond Thu, 26 Jun 2025 06:02:59 +0000 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/nvidia-dlss-4-transformer-model-exits-beta-set-to-bring-improved-graphics-to-more-games/

Why it matters: Most people think of multi-frame generation when they hear about Nvidia DLSS 4, but the transformer model upgrade in DLSS Super Resolution might be the update’s most consequential upgrade. Many games can already benefit from the feature, and it’s likely to become the standard across upcoming releases.

The latest version of Nvidia’s DLSS Super Resolution and Ray Reconstruction SDK, released on Wednesday, brings the transformer model out of beta. Promoting the upscaling technology into DLSS’s stable branch will likely broaden its adoption in upcoming PC games.

First introduced in January alongside Nvidia’s RTX 50 series graphics cards, the vision transformer model replaces the long-standing convolutional neural network previously used in DLSS. This marks the most substantial improvement to Nvidia’s image reconstruction method since DLSS 2 popularized the technology in 2020.

Also read: DLSS 4 Upscaling at 4K is Actually Pretty Amazing

Although DLSS has earned praise for using machine learning to scale images to higher resolutions with good image quality over the past several years, the process isn’t without visual flaws. Issues that often occur include ghosting, shimmering, and smearing. Ray Reconstruction, which combines denoising for ray tracing with the DLSS algorithm, can also sometimes worsen the problem.

DLSS 4’s transformer model alters the algorithm to minimize these blemishes, resulting in a noticeably cleaner image, even when upscaling from half resolution in performance mode.

Our testing shows that, while AMD’s competing FSR 4 method beats DLSS 3, DLSS 4’s transformer model takes the lead. While Nvidia’s marketing for DLSS 4 mostly focuses on multi-frame generation, which is exclusive to the RTX 50 series GPUs, the transformer model which improves upscaling quality on games supports RTX 20 series and newer.

Also check out: DLSS 4 Ray Reconstruction Analysis: Fixing Ugly Ray Tracing Noise

While many prominent games such as Doom: The Dark Ages, Dune: Awakening, Stellar Blade, and F1 25 have adopted the beta version of DLSS 4 since January, some notable recent titles still default to DLSS 3, such as The Alters, Oblivion Remastered, Expedition 33, and Assassin’s Creed Shadows.

The next major game to upgrade to DLSS 4 will likely be Diablo IV when the Season 9 update launches on July 1.

Users can also force DLSS 4’s transformer model into many older DLSS-compatible titles in the Nvidia App by navigating to Graphics > selecting the desired game > clicking on DLSS Override Model Presets under Driver Settings > and selecting Latest in the drop-down menu.

You can also try third-party apps like DLSS Swapper, DLSS Updater, or Optiscaler.

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Google rolls out text-to-image model Imagen 4 for free https://earlybirdsinvest.com/google-rolls-out-text-to-image-model-imagen-4-for-free/ https://earlybirdsinvest.com/google-rolls-out-text-to-image-model-imagen-4-for-free/#respond Wed, 25 Jun 2025 08:36:05 +0000 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/google-rolls-out-text-to-image-model-imagen-4-for-free/

Google

Google Imagen 4, which is the company’s state-of-the-art text-to-image model, is rolling out for free, but only on AI Studio.

In a blog post, Google announced the rollout of the new Imagen 4 model, but reminded users that it’s free for a “limited time” only.

Unlike the old text-to-image model, Imagen 4 offers significant improvements and takes the text-to-image generation quality to the next level.

Imagen
Comic generated using Imagen 4

Google says it has two new Imagen models.

The first one is called “Imagen 4” and it’s optimised for regular tasks, but the Imagen 4 Ultra is the flagship text-to-image model.

“Designed to handle a wide range of image generation tasks with significant improvements in quality, particularly for text generation, over Imagen 3. Imagen 4 is priced at $0.04 per output image,” the company noted.

On the other hand, Imagen 4 Ultra is priced at $0.06 per output image because it precisely follows instructions aligned with your text prompts, giving better results compared to the competitors.

Gemini doesn’t have access to the Imagen 4 model at the moment. However, it’ll arrive for paid users in the coming weeks.

Tines Needle

Patching used to mean complex scripts, long hours, and endless fire drills. Not anymore.

In this new guide, Tines breaks down how modern IT orgs are leveling up with automation. Patch faster, reduce overhead, and focus on strategic work — no complex scripts required.

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Dev Slams DeepSeek’s Latest AI Model for Avoiding Criticism of China https://earlybirdsinvest.com/dev-slams-deepseeks-latest-ai-model-for-avoiding-criticism-of-china/ https://earlybirdsinvest.com/dev-slams-deepseeks-latest-ai-model-for-avoiding-criticism-of-china/#respond Fri, 30 May 2025 21:56:51 +0000 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/dev-slams-deepseeks-latest-ai-model-for-avoiding-criticism-of-china/

DeepSeek’s latest artificial intelligence (AI) model release has raised concerns as it tends to avoid conversations about sensitive political topics, especially those related to the Chinese government.

The new version, called R1-0528, was reviewed by a developer who goes by @xlr8harder on X.

In a series of posts, the developer compared it with earlier versions and pointed out that the latest model was less open to discussing controversial issues.

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One of the main examples involved a test question about internment camps. The AI acknowledged that camps in China’s Xinjiang region are linked to human rights problems but refused to engage in deeper discussion or criticize the Chinese government directly.

Even when asked directly about the camps, the new DeepSeek model repeated general concerns about human rights but stopped short of placing blame. @xlr8harder described the latest AI model as “the most censored” in terms of avoiding criticism of Chinese officials.

The developer said it was “not entirely surprising” that the model could name the camps as an example of abuse, but still chose not to answer when the question became more direct. They argued that this shows the model has been adjusted to avoid crossing certain lines, possibly to follow local rules.

Recently, Anthropic tested its latest AI model, Claude Opus 4, by placing it in a simulated office role with access to internal emails. What happened? Read the full story.

Having completed a Master’s degree in Economics, Politics, and Cultures of the East Asia region, Aaron has written scientific papers analyzing the differences between Western and Collective forms of capitalism in the post-World War II era.
With close to a decade of experience in the FinTech industry, Aaron understands all of the biggest issues and struggles that crypto enthusiasts face. He’s a passionate analyst who is concerned with data-driven and fact-based content, as well as that which speaks to both Web3 natives and industry newcomers.
Aaron is the go-to person for everything and anything related to digital currencies. With a huge passion for blockchain & Web3 education, Aaron strives to transform the space as we know it, and make it more approachable to complete beginners.
Aaron has been quoted by multiple established outlets, and is a published author himself. Even during his free time, he enjoys researching the market trends, and looking for the next supernova.


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How a futures trade literally melted $29B in gold bullion and crashed the Atlanta Fed’s model https://earlybirdsinvest.com/how-a-futures-trade-literally-melted-29b-in-gold-bullion-and-crashed-the-atlanta-feds-model/ https://earlybirdsinvest.com/how-a-futures-trade-literally-melted-29b-in-gold-bullion-and-crashed-the-atlanta-feds-model/#respond Thu, 29 May 2025 15:14:31 +0000 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/how-a-futures-trade-literally-melted-29b-in-gold-bullion-and-crashed-the-atlanta-feds-model/

Wall Street’s rare-metal rumour mill began on a freezing January morning at Zurich Airport, where cargo handlers wrestled two-ton pallets of 99.5% pure gold onto a chartered 747 bound for New York.

Their destination was a COMEX vault in the city, where warehouse rules hinge not on purity but bar dimensions. The gold came from London vaults, cast in 400-ounce formats that satisfied one market’s conventions but failed another’s.

Before it could settle futures contracts in the U.S., the metal had to pass through Swiss furnaces, where it was liquefied and reshaped into 100-ounce or kilobar form.

Each freshly poured block triggered a new customs declaration on arrival, flagged under HS code 7115900530, “finished metal shapes of gold.” There was no change in ownership, no added value, just reformatting in motion.

However, customs recorded the full market value each time. Gold poured from London to Zurich, then from Zurich to JFK, accumulating dollar signs at every checkpoint. Meanwhile, traders chased the price wedge as COMEX futures stood $40 to $50 above London spot, enough spread to cover refinery costs and freight and still lock in tidy returns.

Within weeks, those shipments, refined in Switzerland from London’s smaller “good-delivery” bars into the chunky 100-ounce format, swelled to a jaw-dropping $29 billion a month, a scale the Atlanta Fed’s economists quietly admit they had never seen in three and a half decades of trade data.

“The US gold market has been trading at a premium to the London market since the election result in late 2024,” the London Bullion Market Association told Reuters, noting a more-than-$50 futures premium that pulled bullion across the Atlantic like a monetary magnet.

That premium, fuelled by traders front-running President Trump’s mooted tariff barrage, created a juicy futures-versus-spot arbitrage. Traders could buy cheaper London metal, pay Swiss refiners to recast it, and still pocket profits once the bars were eligible for COMEX delivery.

However, once the White House formally exempted precious metals on 3 April, the Comex–London premium collapsed to $20/oz, and the incentive to keep air-freighting bullion vanished.

Atlanta, meanwhile, endured its own vibe shift.

The Fed district’s vaunted GDPNow “now-cast” model, updated only hours after every data release, suddenly skidded from modest-growth territory to a recession-screaming -3.1% in late February.

Barron’s later called the plunge “a red flag” and reported that GDPNow’s standard run briefly printed -3.7%, then ticked up to around -2.8%, far below rival nowcasts and consensus economists.

Let me put this delicately: the model was duped by the bullion bonanza.

However, Atlanta has missed the mechanical glitch. Gold bars are classified by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) as “non-monetary gold.” Purchases count as imports, which are subtracted from GDP, even though the metal often sits inert in vaults rather than coursing through factories.

The January–February spike left gross imports $22 billion above the Q4 average. Annualised, that gap tops $265 billion. The Fed’s Pat Higgins wrote that this was enough to hit the GDPNow print by 3.6 percentage points.

On 6 March, the Atlanta team bolted a “gold-adjustment” onto the codebase, literally yanking bullion flows out of the net-exports equation. “The model is forecasting smaller, but still slightly negative, first-quarter real GDP growth,” Higgins explained in an internal blog post as he promised to replace the old version on 30 April.

In one stroke, GDPNow lurched from doom-laden 2-ish prints to a far tamer 0.1 percent, a 250-basis-point facelift with the click of a Git commit.

The first estimate for Q1 GDP eventually came out at 0.3% and was later revised to 0.2%. GDPNow’s forecast for Q2 now sits at a much healthier 2% using the new gold-adjusted model.

But why so much metal, so suddenly?

Swiss customs tallied 192.9 tonnes heading west in January alone, thirteen-year highs, after traders feared that a White House “reciprocal tariff” might entangle precious metals despite later carve-outs. Stories of London vault liquidity tightening, together with the COMEX premium, turbo-charged the flow. The LBMA insists stocks remain “strong”, yet market participants whisper about thin spot liquidity, forcing spreads wider and tempting more arbitrage.

The BEA itself was not fooled, as the official advance estimate showed that Q1 GDP fell only 0.3%, which is hardly catastrophic because statisticians have already stripped “valuables” like gold and silver from domestic investment.

Imports still clobbered growth, subtracting almost five full percentage points, but that drag was partly optical, a ledger quirk rather than a real-economy crash. Higgins conceded that inventory data is patchy for the farm and utilities sectors, so the first print could be revised once those beans are counted.

What matters for Bitcoiners?

Absurdity is a word.

In 2025, a trillion-dollar economy’s growth estimate was nearly wrecked by the physical reshaping of hunks of metal, because one country prefers 400-ounce gold bars while another insists on 100-ounce blocks.

Entire pallets of bullion had to be flown from London to Switzerland, melted down, recast to spec, and re-exported to the U.S., not to make jewelry or electronics, but simply to satisfy warehouse eligibility rules for COMEX delivery. All to arbitrage a $50 pricing wedge that existed, largely, because someone floated a new tariff draft. It’s like discovering that GDP turned negative because the shipping containers were the wrong shape.

Compared to Bitcoin, a digital bearer asset with no weight, no borders, and no refinery bottlenecks, this is kinda of embarrassing.

BTC can be transmitted globally in ten minutes or less, 24/7, with final settlement guaranteed. No customs declarations, no harmonised system codes, no “balance-of-payments” reclassifications.

You can’t tariff Bitcoin. You can tariff gold imports.

You don’t need to melt anything to fit it into a specific vault; you just need a valid script and a miner willing to confirm the block. It’s almost comical that while one monetary asset requires furnaces and cargo planes to move between markets, the other crosses continents with a QR code.

Looking forward, the same trade-war jitters that drove bullion stateside remain unresolved, and Higgins warns the absence of another gold wave could whipsaw Q2 nowcasts in the opposite direction.

Should bullion flows normalise, GDPNow might overstate growth as imports retreat (which is interesting given that GDPNow currently stands at 2%). Conversely, a fresh premium could again punch the model below the waterline.

Either way, the Atlanta Fed’s willingness to hot-patch its algorithm highlights a larger lesson: data science is only as good as the metadata you feed it.

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