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Bitcoin may be demonstrating a slight rebound from its recent downward trend, which began after it hit a new all-time high, but discussions about a possible cycle top are intensifying within the community. While this discussion is accompanied by speculations about this bull cycle nearing its end, an analyst has highlighted a key metric that shows that the cycle could end sooner than anticipated.

Historic Fractals Flashes Bitcoin Bull Cycle End

After dropping hard, Bitcoin has reclaimed the $112,000 price mark once again, suggesting renewed momentum fueled by bulls. In the meantime, Joao Wedson, a market expert and founder of Alphractal, has revealed that BTC’s price is once again drawing parallel to past fractal patterns, which is raising questions about whether the current bull cycle is nearing its peak.

Although some contend that macroeconomic tailwinds and robust institutional demand might prolong the current bull run, fractal indications signal caution. Tracking long-term market trends, Wedson outlined that the ongoing cycle is extremely close to its end based on past patterns. 

In the X post, Wedson recalled his 2024 prediction where he pointed out that October 2025 could mark the completion of a fascinating Bitcoin fractal cycle. Should this forecast play out, it would mark the formal end of this chapter in Bitcoin’s history within the month.

Based on this trend, BTC has only a little over one month left before the bull run stops in this cycle. However, the expert believes there might still be just enough time for Bitcoin to fall to around $100,000 before soaring to over $140,000 in the same time frame.

The cycle may come to an end in October, but what really matters is whether this fractal will remain reliable in light of heavy speculation around the Exchange Traded-Funds (ETFs) and growing institutional demand.

Regardless of the fractal readings, whether the four-year cycle is over and whether Bitcoin will continue to increase indefinitely, or if 2025 marks the final breath before a sharp correction, remains Wedson’s main focus. This notion will be validated with prices potentially dropping below the $50,000 price level in the 2026 bear market.

Musk’s Suggestion Toward The Next Bear Market Phase

Wedson has pointed to the recent suggestion from Tesla’s CEO, Elon Musk, about US President Donald Trump triggering a bear market in Q4 2025, which is adding to the intrigue. According to the on-chain expert, Musk’s suggestion is not one to dismiss lightly, considering Trump’s position as the second most influential figure in the crypto sector.

Highlighting the importance of this statement, Wedson has drawn attention to the 2021 cycle, where Musk somehow foresaw Bitcoin’s precise peak at $69,000 months ahead of time with a single cryptic post. 

While these bold predictions and trends seem highly likely to occur, the expert warned that they are just theories. He added that nobody might really know what is going to happen next except Satoshi Nakamoto, the anonymous founder of BTC.

Featured image from Getty Images, chart from Tradingview.com

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While Bitcoin’s price faced heightened bearish pressure in the last few days, Ethereum’s price experienced significant upside action, which led to a new all-time high during the weekend. In addition to outperforming Bitcoin in terms of price action, ETH is demonstrating notable on-chain activity when compared to BTC.

Bitcoin Is Lagging Behind Ethereum

Ethereum’s strength is becoming increasingly evident in the current bull market cycle, with new on-chain data highlighting its edge over Bitcoin. CryptoMe, a market expert, has outlined a key metric that underscores the disparity in momentum between the two crypto giants in a quick-take post on the CryptoQuant platform.

According to the market expert, Ethereum is giving strong signals compared to Bitcoin, as Wall Street is starting to adopt the altcoin. Considering the trend, ETH fundamentals appear to be painting a clear picture of resilience and market dominance. 

In the last 3 months, ETH has outperformed, and this disparity may continue for some time. CryptoMe’s analysis is based on a comparison of the Open Interest (OI) data for Bitcoin and Ethereum futures contracts traded on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME).

Delving into BTC’s performance, the expert highlighted that Bitcoin hit an all-time high of $110,000 in January, then fell to $74,000 in March and April before rising to $124,000 for a new all-time high. However, the open interest did not retest its old levels during this period. 

Therefore, even if the price of Bitcoin increased, it would not be able to draw the same amount of institutional interest as CME options. Meanwhile, the circumstances are different for ETH. In 2024, ETH made several attempts to break past the $4,000 mark, but failed each time due to its weak open interest. 

However, CryptoMe noted that the open interest in CME has started to increase in this current trend. The development implies that the ongoing uptrend is bolstered by fresh liquidity inflows and shows that the altcoin is diverging from Bitcoin.

ETH Rallies To New Highs: The Top Is Not In

ETH may have risen sharply to new highs, but CryptoMe foresees a continued uptrend due to the absence of retail investors on centralized exchanges. Typically, retail investors enter close to the top and give the major players exit liquidity. Nonetheless, since retail is still absent in the current move, it shows that ETH’s price action is healthy and has room to grow.

In the overall picture, ETH is showing a more bullish outlook compared to BTC lately. According to the market expert, the increase in CME open interest and the absence of retail participation indicate that this disparity might persist in the near to medium future.

At the time of writing, ETH was trading at $4,414, demonstrating a nearly 5% in the last 24 hours. Despite the waning price action, CoinMarketCap data reveals that investors’ sentiment is slowly turning bullish, as evidenced by a more than 10% increase in trading volume in the past day.

Featured image from iStock, chart from Tradingview.com

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Popular blockchain tracking platform Shibburn has revealed that just recently, the burn rate of the second-biggest meme cryptocurrency, SHIB, has faced a drastic fall as it collapsed by almost 100%.

Still, there is some good news about it that partly reimburses for this negative and unexpected pivot.

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SHIB burn rate down on all fronts – minus 95%

According to the above-mentioned on-chain data source, over the past week, the Shiba Inu community has failed to hold the SHIB burn rate in the green zone. During the past seven days, this metric has collapsed by 94.05%. However, even with this fall, millions of meme coins were still transferred out of the circulating supply – 9,434,807 SHIB.

As for the daily burn rate, things stand worse here, since with a similar decline (minus 95.46%), the community has burned only as little as 169,895 SHIB.

SHIB rebounds 3.25%

Over the past 24 hours, the popular meme cryptocurrency has managed to rebound, reclaiming 3.25% after a 12.38% price crash that took place between Sunday and Monday.

Printing multiple consecutive red candles on an hourly chart, Shiba Inu mirrored the price curve of the flagship cryptocurrency, Bitcoin, on that day. Still, today’s price rise was followed by a small decline as SHIB went down by 1.18%. At the time of this writing, it is changing hands at $0.00001210 per coin.

A crucial question has been raised by Bitcoin’s recent market performance: Is the bull run already over, or is this just a mid-cycle pause? BTC has had difficulty maintaining upward momentum since hitting a new high earlier this summer, and recent price action indicates the rally may be losing steam. Because Bitcoin has failed to stay above the 50-day EMA, this is the main problem. In the past, this level has served as a solid basis for bullish continuation, however, in the present configuration Bitcoin tried to break through but failed.

The rejection at this moving average indicates a market where buying pressure is insufficient to sustain the subsequent leg up, and indicates a weakness in demand. Volume has been continuously dropping, adding to the bearish weight, and indicating that traders are not very confident. Every correction during prior strong bull phases was greeted by aggressive buybacks and increased volume inflows. Now, the lack of these indicators suggests hesitancy on the part of investors who are hesitant to commit to additional upside.

The next logical area of support for Bitcoin is around the 100 EMA, which is close to $111,000, if it is unable to regain the 50 EMA anytime soon. A test of that area might significantly strain sentiment, and possibly prolong the correction. The story would change from a healthy retracement to a more comprehensive trend reversal if it breaks below it.

The failed 50 EMA breakthrough, however, indicates that the road to higher highs might be postponed for the time being. The main resistance level that investors should keep a close eye on is $116,000. Talk of a sustained bull run seems premature in the absence of a clear move above it.

Shiba Inu is anemic

Shiba Inu’s recent trading sessions have seen nearly zero volatility, signaling the start of an extremely stagnant phase. Although symmetrical triangles are frequently used to precede breakouts, the current dynamics indicate that SHIB may be headed for a protracted period of sideways movement rather than an explosive rally.

According to the chart, SHIB has been steadily tightening between levels of support and convergent resistance. Every recovery attempt has been capped by the upper descending trendline, and the July ascending support has prevented the token from dropping further. This gives the appearance of a balanced market that lacks clear-cut momentum.

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It is a double-edged sword that volatility has dropped to almost zero. It lessens the possibility of unexpected malfunctions in the near future, on the one hand. On the contrary, it indicates that liquidity is dwindling and that traders are generally disinterested at current levels. The price may move indistinguishably for weeks as a result of this type of compression.

There has been a consistent drop in volume, and the token is still below its major moving averages. A breakout from this triangle might be more noise than signal if there isn’t a significant catalyst or a spike in demand. This means patience is key for investors.

The absence of volatility raises the possibility that stagnation rather than growth will characterize the foreseeable future, even though the symmetrical triangle can ultimately resolve in either direction. It is unlikely that the market will regain momentum in the near future unless SHIB recovers important levels above $0.0000135 and $0.0000141.

XRP’s bounce

After a sharp decline, XRP recently made one of the most unexpected recoveries of the summer, rising above the 50-day EMA. The asset appeared destined to decline further toward the 100-day EMA near $2.75, making this recovery nearly impossible. Rather, XRP abruptly reversed course, pushing back above short-term resistance and surprising the market. Because of how swiftly sentiment changed, the move has been called an unthinkable comeback.

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A few sessions ago, XRP was on the edge of diving below the 100 EMA as it struggled to stay above $2.80. Volume was declining, and momentum indicators were weak. Nevertheless, the market managed to muster enough strength to push the token back above the 50 EMA, giving investors hope for a possible continuation rally.

There is a catch to this rally though. Although the 50 EMA breakout appears promising, XRP never really broke through its 26 EMA support. It may not be as strong as it looks because the price tested it several times but was unable to close much below it. In summary, technical resilience rather than fresh demand is the foundation of XRP’s recovery. This raises doubts about the rally’s viability.

Should XRP fail to gain traction above $3.05 and retest the $3.20-$3.30 range, the move may not last as long as it seems. The market might retest the 100 EMA if it is unable to hold above the 50 EMA, at which point genuine support would need to be verified. For the time being, holders of XRP can find solace in this improbable recovery, but the warning indicators are still there: This recovery could be brief in the absence of volume and more solid fundamentals.

Key points:

• Bitcoin is heavily undervalued vs its “fair” price based on miner output.

• The Energy Value metric calculates that BTC should be trading at almost $170,000.

• Bitcoin is further from its energy value now than when it passed $10,000 for the final time in September 2020.

Bitcoin (BTC) should trade at as much as $167,800 per coin if price matched its “energy value,” said the founder of crypto asset manager Capriole Investments.

In an X post Thursday, Charles Edwards calculated that Bitcoin’s true value is about 45% higher than its current $116,000.

Bitcoin “fair value” demands 45% price surge

Bitcoin miners hold the key to a hyper-bullish BTC price prognosis that calls for BTC/USD to rise almost 50%.

Bitcoin’s “Energy Value” metric, created by Capriole in 2019, argued that Bitcoin’s correct price, or “fair value,” is “a function of energy input, supply growth rate and a constant representing the fiat dollar value of energy.”

While this means that BTC/USD should be zero if miners were to stop participating in the network entirely, current record hashrates show that Bitcoin is anything but worthless.

Data from onchain analytics platform Glassnode put the current hashrate — the combined processing power dedicated to the network by miners — at 1.031 zettahashes per second (ZH/s), with its latest all-time highs coming on Aug. 4.

“Hash Rates are flying and Bitcoin Energy Value just hit $145K,” Edwards said, referring to the metric’s simple moving average (SMA). 

“That puts price at a 31% discount to value.”

Bitcoin’s Energy Value has reached as much as $167,800. Network fundamentals now contrast considerably with price, which has dipped by almost 10% since its record peak last month.

“We are trading at a deeper discount to value today at $116K, than when Bitcoin was at $10K in September 2020,” Edwards added.

BTC price vs. mean reversion

As Cointelegraph reported, many market participants have said the current Bitcoin bull run has just months to go.

Related: Bitcoin supply shock to ‘uncork’ BTC price as OTC desks run dry

This gives BTC price precious little time to match its Energy Value rating, which would fall if miners were to reduce the amount of energy they employ.

“Consistent energy input represents a balance between supply and demand. Rising market prices incentivize increased energy input via hash power growth and technology improvements which result in greater energy efficiencies,” Capriole said in an introduction to the metric. 

“For this reason, great increases in market price typically result in long-term increases in committed energy and therefore increases in Bitcoin’s Energy Value. However, when speculation causes skyrocketing prices, without a corresponding increase in energy input, price has historically collapsed back to the Energy Value.”

Bitcoin’s Hash Ribbons metric continues to reinforce a healthy outlook for both miners and price performance after its latest “buy signal” flashed in late July.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

]]> https://earlybirdsinvest.com/bitcoin-energy-value-metric-says-fair-btc-price-is-as-much-as-167k/feed/ 0 52133 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/hold-on-for-dear-life-this-bullish-bitcoin-metric-just-touched-a-15-year-high/ https://earlybirdsinvest.com/hold-on-for-dear-life-this-bullish-bitcoin-metric-just-touched-a-15-year-high/#respond Mon, 21 Jul 2025 13:27:16 +0000 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/hold-on-for-dear-life-this-bullish-bitcoin-metric-just-touched-a-15-year-high/

The percentage of Bitcoin’s long-term holders’ supply has reached a 15-year high, providing a bullish outlook for the flagship crypto. Asset manager Ark Invest highlighted this development in a recent report and explained what this could mean for BTC going forward. 

Bitcoin Long-Term Holders Supply Hit 74%

According to the Ark Invest report, the long-term holders’ supply has reached 74% of Bitcoin’s total supply, marking a 15-year high for this metric. The asset manager noted that this trend indicates growing market conviction in BTC’s role as a store of value or “digital gold.” These long-term holders refer to addresses that have held for 155 days or longer. 

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This development comes at a time when Bitcoin is witnessing massive demand from institutional investors through the ETFs and treasury companies. These investors are considered better ‘diamond-hands’ than retail investors, which means that this metric could keep rising, with long-term holders gaining more control of BTC’s total supply. 

This institutional buying has also driven the Bitcoin price to several all-time highs (ATHs) this year, with BTC reaching as high as $123,000 last week. The flagship crypto appears to still be in price discovery, as ETFs led by BlackRock and treasury companies, led by Saylor’s Strategy, continue to accumulate at an unprecedented pace. 

Cathie Wood’s Ark Invest is ultra bullish on the Bitcoin price, predicting that it could reach $1.5 million by 2030. They expect BTC to reach this target due to the rising institutional investment and global recognition of Bitcoin’s ability to serve as a store of value. In a CNBC interview, Cathie Wood also doubled down on this prediction. 

She explained that they expect BTC to take a significant share from gold or grow the store of value market. Wood added that institutions are still just testing the waters despite the massive accumulation so far. As such, she still expects a rise in adoption for these companies. Meanwhile, only about 1 million unmined Bitcoins are remaining. 

Other Bullish Metrics For BTC

The Ark Invest report also revealed that global liquidity per bitcoin reached a 12-year high. This metric reached this high with $5.7 million in global M2 supply per BTC in circulation. The asset manager remarked that this ratio could continue to rise given Bitcoin’s diminishing future supply growth and the continued expansion of global liquidity.

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Meanwhile, in June, Bitcoin managed to hold above the support between $96,000 and $99,000 and is now well above these levels. $98,888, $96,278, and $71,393 are BTC’s short-term holder cost basis, 200-day moving average, and on-chain mean, respectively, which is why this development is bullish for the flagship crypto. 

At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is trading at around $19,100, up in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap.

Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

One Bitcoin (BTC) metric is signaling potential concern for the flagship crypto asset, according to new insight from market intelligence firm Swissblock.

In a post on the social media platform X, Swissblock highlights a sudden plunge in on-chain liquidity, something the firm says needs to reverse if BTC should rally.

“At the same time as the rest of the market has consolidated back into BTC, we have seen a drop off in our on-chain liquidity.

For bullish continuation, we need to see an uptick again in on-chain liquidity.”

On-chain liquidity refers to how easily and efficiently Bitcoin can be bought or sold without significantly impacting BTC’s price. Low liquidity environments suggest that there are not enough buyers to absorb sell orders, triggering price declines.

Swissblock says that the fast drop in liquidity by itself is “a concern” and that BTC is showing a reduction in overall activity in the Bitcoin network.

However, the analytics firm says that BTC’s long-term bullish market structure still looks solid.

“Lower liquidity as price is more correlated with on-chain dynamics vs external factors. Lower activity making price more susceptible to downside volatility..

All is not lost. Even though we have had a liquidity flush, the bullish long-term structure is still intact as long as our Risk off signal is at 0…

While liquidity conditions have deteriorated, the broader bullish structure remains intact – provided risk signals continue to hold.”

At time of writing, BTC is trading at $101,833.

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Analytics firm Santiment is highlighting one metric that usually precedes a rally for Bitcoin (BTC) and other crypto assets.

Santiment says the ratio of bullish king crypto sentiment to bearish sentiment from retail traders has reached a two-month low.

A low ratio of the metric is “typically a bullish sign,” according to the analytics firm.

“With crypto in a bit of a lull, traders are showing signs of impatience and bearish sentiment. There are just 1.03 bullish comments for every 1 bearish comment, which hasn’t happened since peak fear, uncertainty and doubt (FUD) during initial tariff reactions on April 6th…

…Markets historically move in the opposite direction of retail’s expectations. A prime example was the optimal buy time during the early April fear from other traders.”

Santiment further says that the Middle East conflict involving Israel and Iran will “likely continue to cause volatile and unpredictable price action” for the crypto market.

“Despite the initial panic, Bitcoin has remained in the $104,000 – $105,000 range, aided by consistent exchange-traded funds (ETF) inflows and a lack of follow-through in military actions, mirroring the typical ‘risk-off, then stabilize’ pattern seen in previous geopolitical crises.”

Bitcoin is trading at $104,431 at time of writing.

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On-chain data shows the Bitcoin Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) Ratio is currently still below historical market peaks.

Bitcoin MVRV Ratio May Not Be That Overheated Yet

In a new post on X, the institutional DeFi solutions provider Sentora (previously IntoTheBlock) has discussed about the latest trend in the MVRV Ratio of Bitcoin. The “MVRV Ratio” refers to a popular on-chain indicator that compares the BTC Market cap and Realized cap.

The Realized Cap is an on-chain capitalization model for the asset that calculates its total valuation by assuming the value of each individual token in circulation is equal to the price at which it was last moved on the network. This is different from the usual Market Cap, which just takes the current spot price as the value for all coins.

The previous transaction of any token is likely to represent the last time that it changed hands, so the price at its time could be considered as its current cost basis. Thus, the Realized Cap is essentially the sum of the acquisition values of all coins.

One way to interpret the model is as a measure of the amount of capital that investors as a whole initially put into the cryptocurrency. In contrast, the Market Cap represents the value that they are holding right now.

As the MVRV Ratio takes the ratio of the two models, its value basically tells us whether the investors are holding more than they put in. In other words, the indicator contains information about the profit-loss balance of the entire network.

Now, here is the chart shared by Sentora that shows a long-term view of the Bitcoin MVRV Ratio:

The trend in the BTC MVRV Ratio over the past ten years | Source: Sentora on X

As is visible in the above graph, an extreme peak in the Bitcoin MVRV Ratio has historically coincided with tops in the asset’s price. The explanation behind the pattern lies in the fact that investors become more tempted to take their gains the larger that they grow.

At a high value of the MVRV Ratio, the Market Cap significantly exceeds the Realized Cap, so the average investor can be assumed to be holding onto a notable profit. This often leads to holders participating in mass selloffs to realize their gains, but the bull run keeps going as long as enough demand continues to flow in to absorb the selling pressure.

From the chart, it’s apparent that this balance seems to have been reaching a turning point earlier with each cycle, showcasing that as Bitcoin matures as an asset, its returns are becoming smaller. At present, the MVRV Ratio is sitting at a value of 2.25, which suggests the Market Cap is more than double the Realized Cap. However, even after taking into account for shrinking gains, this value is notably lower than previous cyclical tops.

“This indicates the market still isn’t as overheated as it was during earlier peaks,” notes the analytics firm. It now remains to be seen how the rest of the cycle will play out, and whether BTC will make use of this potential room or not.

BTC Price

Bitcoin has erased its recent recovery as its price has come back down to the $104,200 mark.

Looks like the price of the coin has plunged during the last couple of days | Source: BTCUSDT on TradingView

Featured image from Dall-E, IntoTheBlock.com, chart from TradingView.com

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The Tron (TRX) Sharpe Ratio suggests the cryptocurrency’s price may be far from overheating, a sign that the coin could have more upside potential.

Tron Sharpe Ratio Is Still Significantly Below Overheating Zone

In a CryptoQuant Quicktake post, an analyst has talked about the latest trend in the Sharpe Ratio of Tron. The “Sharpe Ratio” refers to an indicator that compares the returns of an asset against the risk associated with it.

The numerator in the ratio, the ‘returns’ portion, is defined as the difference between the average return of the coin and the risk-free return (that is, the theoretical return involved with an asset carrying zero risk) over a given period. The denominator, the ‘risk’ part, is the asset’s standard deviation of returns over the same window (in other words, its volatility).

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When the value of this metric is greater than 1, it means the cryptocurrency is printing returns that outweigh its risk. On the other hand, it being under the threshold suggests the asset’s performance has been lackluster compared to its volatility.

Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the Tron Sharpe Ratio over the last few years:

As displayed in the above graph, the Tron Sharpe Ratio fell below the 1 level earlier, but its value has since returned above the mark. According to the quant, the metric being above the level has historically accompanied bullish price action.

An extremely high value, however, has proven to be an overheating signal, with the asset tending to arrive at a top. “Whenever the Adjusted Sharpe Ratio climbs above 40, it often signals a market that’s overheating,” explains the analyst. “In the past, readings over 40 have lined up well with local tops.”

So far since its return above 1, the Tron Sharpe Ratio has only managed to reach a high of 8.3, which is clearly significantly below this cutoff. This trend could mean that TRX hasn’t been too overheated.

“With TRX’s Sharpe Ratio still far from historical peaks, the data suggests there’s plenty of upside room for a potential bull run in 2025,” says the quant. It now remains to be seen how the coin will develop in the near future, given this pattern.

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In some other news, the Tron network set a new record in USDT transaction volume last month, as CryptoQuant community analyst Maartunn has pointed out in an X post.

In total, the month of May saw over $694 billion in USDT transaction volume on the Tron network. Around $411 billion of these transfers were of a size that’s generally associated with the whales.

TRX Price

At the time of writing, Tron is trading around $0.272, down 1% in the last week.

Featured image from iStock.com, CryptoQuant.com, chart from TradingView.com