A former BlackRock fund manager just issued a major warning on the US economy.

In a new interview on Market Disruptors, Edward Dowd forecasts an incoming recession and market meltdown driven in part by a housing crisis and a bursting AI bubble.

Dowd points to collapsing new home permits since 2022 and falling tenant rents as early signs of a housing crash.

He also warns that government spending cuts and a slowdown in illegal immigration will sap economic growth, with stock markets facing a potential 50% drop based on historical patterns.

“The idea here is you have a recession that we think manifests itself pretty soon, and the stock markets bottom sometime in the first quarter of 2026.

Then you have a recovery, that’s the ideal situation… We’re not claiming anything’s going to go systemic. We’re not doom and gloom. It’s just we think it’s an old-fashioned deep recession and hopefully it’s quick. Typically speaking in recessions like in the dot-com recession and the great financial crisis, stocks went down 50% before they recovered, so we’re nowhere near down 50% yet and we think that’s coming.”

The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped from its all-time high of 45,073 in December of 2024 to a low of 38,314 last month, registering a 15% decline.

Dowd traces the crisis to a global debt problem, temporarily masked by COVID-era money printing and spending, with commercial real estate and rising auto loan delinquencies signaling a broader credit crunch.

In the long run, he expects deflationary pressures to force the Federal Reserve to slash rates and print money.

For protection, Dowd advocates holding cash, pointing to Berkshire Hathaway’s massive position in T-bills/bonds, as well as physical gold, while cautioning against Bitcoin’s volatility and historic correlation with risk assets.

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Disclaimer: Opinions expressed at The Daily Hodl are not investment advice. Investors should do their due diligence before making any high-risk investments in Bitcoin, cryptocurrency or digital assets. Please be advised that your transfers and trades are at your own risk, and any losses you may incur are your responsibility. The Daily Hodl does not recommend the buying or selling of any cryptocurrencies or digital assets, nor is The Daily Hodl an investment advisor. Please note that The Daily Hodl participates in affiliate marketing.

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Bitcoin is staging a rebellion against traditional markets, gaining more than 2% while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq dropped nearly 6% in a single day.

As Trump’s tariffs caused chaos, over $3.2 trillion was wiped out from stocks, yet crypto added $5.4 billion in market cap. Now traders are asking; is BTC finally breaking free from Wall Street’s grip?

Decoupling From Mainstream Markets

“This is insane, BTC is detaching right before our eyes,” tweeted crypto analyst Cory Bates, reacting to data showing the biggest stock market indexes in the red, with Bitcoin up 2%.

In a post on X, Ryan Rasmussen, head of research at Bitwise, showed the performances of several major tech stocks since Trump’s so-called “Liberation Day.”

The likes of Google, Amazon, and Meta were all down by double figures, with Apple the worst-hit, plunging almost 16% in that period. Even gold, the classic safe haven, crumbled 3%, leaving Bitcoin as the last asset standing.

Crypto influencer Kyle Chassé posed a question on X, asking whether BTC could benefit from the ongoing trade war drama, to which a user emphatically responded, “Bitcoin is the only asset to be in right now.”

Meanwhile, former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes cheekily suggested that holders of the cryptocurrency need to “learn to love tariffs” as it showed signs of dissociating with traditional financial markets. Earlier, he had predicted that Trump’s new trade policy could force central banks to start printing money, which could be good for Bitcoin.

BTC to $100K?

Bitcoin’s recent performance relative to Wall Street has led to some measure of optimism. Popular chartist MacroScope revisited a theory they had shared earlier of a possible “handoff,” where BTC diverges positively from gold and broader market risks, a trend not seen since 2019.

“BTC positive divergence from gold and risk in past 24 hours is striking. Haven’t seen it to this extent in a long time,” wrote the analyst.

In their previous post, they called it the “gold leads, BTC eventually follows” relationship. This has held true at a few key inflection points in past years, especially from 2019 to 2020, when gold rallied first, and Bitcoin exploded soon after by a whopping 344%.

“A reclaim of 100k would imply a ‘handoff’ from gold to BTC,” said MacroScope. This, in their opinion, would open the door to a period of “huge outperformance” by Bitcoin over other assets.

However, not everyone is convinced. “Don’t be ultra greedy on crypto this weekend,” warned Master Kenobi, pointing to a possible “rug pull” happening at the start of next week.

The post Bitcoin Defies Global Market Meltdown: Is $100K Back on the Table? appeared first on CryptoPotato.

Several Wall Street banks including JPMorgan Chase are abruptly changing their forecasts for the US stock market.

JPMorgan Chase’s head of global market intelligence Andrew Tyler says the lender’s trading desk is flipping short-term bearish on the stock market amid a deteriorating macroeconomic backdrop, reports Bloomberg.

All in all, the US stock market has wiped out $3.4 trillion this year, giving up all of the gains witnessed since Trump won the election in November.

Tyler’s team sees President Donald Trump’s trade war as a headwind that could limit the US economy’s growth.

“With this in mind, we are changing our view to tactically bearish… Given the uncertainty, positioning, and potential for a negative feedback loop to push people to using the recession playbook, we think the bearish position makes the most sense.” 

Earlier this week, Trump imposed 25% tariffs against both Canada and Mexico, leading to a 500-point drop in the Dow, alongside small drops in the Nasdaq and S&P 500.

As the equity market retreats, Goldman Sachs analyst David Kostin says in an investor note that equity valuations are not yet low enough to trigger a significant bounce. He also believes that the stock market will only regain bullish momentum if the US economy begins to show signs of strength.

“An improvement in the US economic growth outlook will be required to fully reverse the recent equity market weakness.”

On his forecast for stocks this year, Kostin says,

“Equity returns will be more modest than last year and match the trajectory of earnings growth.”

Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley believes that the stock market will see “muted” gains this year. Andrew Slimmon, the firm’s head of applied equity advisors team, says stocks have been in a bull market since 2023, leading to concerns that the market may be overvalued.

Slimmon also says that the third year of an equities bull market typically prints mediocre gains on average based on historical data.

“With enough negatives out there, including higher-for-longer interest rates and geopolitical noise, to cause a subpar year, the recently minted optimists could revert to being skeptics, only to have the market roar again in 2026. In that case, 2025 could be more of a pause year than anything more sinister.”

Last year, all three firms predicted that the S&P 500 would soar to greater heights this year, believing that a Trump presidency would create a favorable macroeconomic environment. JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley predicted that the S&P 500 will reach a new all-time high of 6,500 points in 2025.

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Disclaimer: Opinions expressed at The Daily Hodl are not investment advice. Investors should do their due diligence before making any high-risk investments in Bitcoin, cryptocurrency or digital assets. Please be advised that your transfers and trades are at your own risk, and any losses you may incur are your responsibility. The Daily Hodl does not recommend the buying or selling of any cryptocurrencies or digital assets, nor is The Daily Hodl an investment advisor. Please note that The Daily Hodl participates in affiliate marketing.

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An analyst known for correctly timing the 2021 crypto crash is warning that Bitcoin (BTC) is getting close to witnessing a waterfall event.

Pseudonymous analyst Dave the Wave tells his 148,300 followers on the social media platform X that Bitcoin is currently testing whether support at around $90,000 will hold.

According to the crypto strategist, he expects Bitcoin to mimic its late 2024 price action when it plunged to the 0.382 Fibonacci level before sparking a massive move up.

“As expected BTC local lows being re-tested… I haven’t seen that larger washout yet into the lower Fibonacci level that I’m also looking for.”

Looking at the trader’s chart, he seems to predict that BTC will fall to around $80,000.

Zooming out, Dave the Wave says he’s keeping a close watch on the moving average convergence divergence (MACD) indicator on the weekly chart. The MACD is a widely used indicator to identify an asset’s current trend.

According to the trader, BTC’s MACD on the weekly timeframe will hit the zero line level to reset en route to tapping the 0.382 Fibonacci level.

“Technically superb BTC price action in this current bull market.

Something like an April low on the basis of this.”

But while Dave the Wave is bearish on the prospects of BTC in the coming months, he believes that the deep drawdown will set the stage for a Bitcoin rally to around $180,000 by the end of the year.

“Why complicate things?”

At time of writing, Bitcoin is trading $91,529.

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