Solana could be on track for a massive 323% rally this altcoin season, according to a new technical analysis by crypto strategist Quantum Ascend, who projects a potential peak around $830 based on market cap extensions and Elliott Wave structures. In a detailed July 22 breakdown, the analyst argues that most retail traders continue to overlook the impact of inflation and token supply dynamics—factors that significantly affect price projections.

Solana To $1,000 Is Not Realistic Thus Cycle

“Looking at the market cap chart, it’s up almost 216,000%, while the price chart is only up 18,000%. So what this tells us is, there’s some kind of inflationary pressure on the asset,” Quantum Ascend said. “You have to use the market cap chart in order to measure the price.”

Using Elliott Wave Theory, the analyst identified Solana as currently operating within a macro third wave—arguably the strongest phase of a five-wave impulse sequence. According to his count, Solana completed its first and second macro waves during previous market cycles and is now accelerating through the early stages of wave three, a move that could culminate in a parabolic rally.

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“Right now, what we’re working on is this macro wave three,” he explained. “The bear market will be macro four, and then we’ll have another wave at some point well into the future.”

To support this thesis, Quantum Ascend pulled Fibonacci extensions from Solana’s historical price structures. He pointed to confluence between the 2.618 extension of the most recent accumulation range and the 3.618 extension of a broader range, both of which intersect near a $300 billion market cap. However, he views this zone as a mid-cycle checkpoint rather than a terminal target.

His conservative scenario puts Solana at a $620 price tag, representing a 217% move from current levels. But his primary projection suggests a 323% rally, translating to an $830 top based on market cap behavior and structural alignment. He cautioned that simply targeting round numbers like $1,000 can mislead traders, especially when inflation-adjusted market cap analysis tells a different story.

“If I pull those same extensions here for Solana [on the price chart], because of the inflation, you’d be looking for $1,000, which is a nice round number and something that retail would love to hear,” he said. “But the market cap chart shows it’s topping that same extensions only at $830.”

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The discrepancy arises from Solana’s token inflation. As new tokens enter circulation, they dilute the impact of price movements. This is why, Quantum Ascend insists, market cap projections provide a more accurate view of potential upside. “There’s not enough people paying attention to market cap. You have to do it,” he emphasized.

In his final breakdown, the analyst laid out both price zones. “We have $620 as our conservative, $830 as our primary here for Solana,” he concluded. While some viewers may find the upper bound modest compared to speculative retail targets, he stressed the importance of realism over hype. “We’re trying to make sure that we’re not buying into any crazy narratives or anything and we’re not leaving anything on the table and we’re not round tripping our bags.”

At press time, SOL traded at $195.

Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

Grok 4 is a huge leap from Grok 3, but how good is it compared to other models in the market, such as Gemini 2.5 Pro? We now have answers, thanks to new independent benchmarks.

LMArena.ai, which is an open platform for crowdsourced AI benchmarking, has published the results of Grok 4.

We’re talking about Grok 4 API (grok-4-0709), which received about 4k+ community votes and ranks #3 overall in Text Arena. This is a huge leap from Grok 3, which ranked 8th.

According to LMArena’s tests, Grok 4 scores Top-3 across all categories (#1 in Math, #2 in Coding, #3 in Hard Prompts).

Grok 4 was tested with real-world prompts across domains like coding, math, as well as creative writing, and it performed really well:

• Math: #1
• Coding: #2
• Creative Writing: #2
• Instruction Following: #2
• Hard Prompts: #3

However, it is worth noting that the tested model is Grok 4, not Grok 4 Heavy.

While both are reasoning models, Grok 4 Heavy is significantly better.

The numbers could be different with Grok 4 Heavy, which uses multiple agents to think and compare results, but the Grok 4 Heavy model is not yet available on the API platform.

Gemini 2.5 Pro and Claude still remain the best models for coding, but that might change when xAI ships Grok 4 Code in August.

Grok 4 Code is optimised for coding, and we’re also expecting a CLI, similar to Gemini CLI and Claude Code.

The world is Netflix‘s (NFLX -0.14%) oyster. That is what it has felt like over the past few years as the company has sucked all the oxygen out of the video streaming market.

Its global presence and huge catalog of content give it a competitive advantage over streaming rivals, which is why viewers flock to the service. Revenue continues to march higher, while profits are soaring.

Management does not think the growth party is over just yet. According to reporting from The Wall Street Journal, Netflix is aiming to reach a market cap of $1 trillion by 2030, which would be around double its current level at $500 billion. Here’s the math behind the analysis and whether the company can hit these targets by the end of the decade.

Global expansion and pricing power

Video streaming processed through the cloud has turned the media sector into a truly worldwide game. Netflix has taken advantage of this global pie, investing to produce video specifically in markets such as Europe, Latin America, South Korea, and India.

This global expansion is why it eclipsed 300 million total subscribers at the end of 2024, making it the largest pure-play premium video streamer in the world. With a global population of 8 billion and rising use of the internet every year, there is plenty of room to expand its total subscribers in the years to come.

Another factor for Netflix’s success is pricing power. In the U.S., its premium subscription tier has gone from $11.99 a month in 2013 to $24.99 currently. This more than doubling in monthly subscription fees has helped revenue grow by close to 600% in the last 10 years.

More importantly, it has helped the company gain some operating leverage over its cost base, with operating income inflecting higher to $11.3 billion in the last few years. Free cash flow is now positive at $7.5 billion over the last 12 months, giving the company the flexibility to keep pushing for more growth globally.

Image source: Getty Images.

Sports and advertisements

By 2030, Netflix wants its advertising tier to generate around $9 billion in global ad sales, up from an estimated $2 billion currently. This advertising tier was launched in 2023 and is a huge driver of new sign-ups for Netflix.

As it rolls out globally, it will hopefully see even more customers sign up. Advertising has historically been a huge revenue driver for the media industry that Netflix decided to lay off of for a long while. Now, it is turning on this new revenue stream and hopes to see huge growth in the years to come.

An easy way to connect with advertisers is by adding sports content. Sports leagues are one of the biggest draws for large advertisers because they bring in millions of live viewers for games, something that is not happening with traditional TV shows or movies anymore.

Netflix is starting to invest in sports such as licensing World Wrestling Entertainment, which has weekly live events. Investors should track Netflix’s investments into sports streaming rights in the years to come. They may have a large impact on the advertising revenue for the business.

NFLX Operating Margin (TTM) data by YCharts; TTM = trailing 12 months.

The math to a $1 trillion market cap

According to the reporting, Netflix aims to double its revenue to $80 billion in 2030 and triple its operating income to around $30 billion. Advertising revenue of $9 billion will be a large part of that equation.

How will the company do it? It hopes to grow its total subscribers to 410 million compared to 300 million at the end of 2024. However, that would only lead to about 30% growth in revenue assuming no changes to subscription pricing.

What this means is that Netflix will need to continue increasing the price of its subscription service while simultaneously growing advertising sales if it hopes to double revenue in the next five years. This is a tall task, but one it is poised to achieve.

Operating income tripling to $30 billion feels doable as well. Expanding operating margins is not something a company can do indefinitely, but Netflix has consistently pushed up its operating margin in the last 10 years, hitting 28% in the last 12 months. I think the company can keep expanding its profit margins as it scales up to greater heights in the years to come.

That $30 billion in operating income likely equates to $25 billion in net income when factoring in corporate tax rates. Should Netflix be valued at a trillion-dollar market cap if it generates $25 billion in net income? Maybe. That is a price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) of 40, which is well above the average for stocks, even durable growers like Netflix.

It is possible, but not a guarantee, that the market cap will double to $1 trillion in the next five years. We have no idea what the stock’s future P/E will be.

It still remains a good hold for investors who have bought the stock in the past. However, I don’t think Netflix is a strong buy today.