Crypto Journalist

Anas Hassan

Crypto Journalist

Anas Hassan

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Anas is a crypto native journalist and SEO writer with over five years of writing experience covering blockchain, crypto, DeFi, and emerging tech.

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Last updated: 

September 15, 2025

HYPE price prediction scenarios reached new extremes as BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes projected the token could reach $5,000, building on his earlier forecast of 126x gains within three years.

His bold call coincides with Native Markets securing the USDH stablecoin ticker for Hyperliquid after defeating heavyweight competitors, including Paxos and Ethena.

Technical analysis reveals HYPE trading near $54 after completing what appears to be a major Elliott Wave cycle, with indicators suggesting potential retracement toward $25-$50 support levels before resuming its upward trajectory.

The platform’s dominance in perpetual futures markets and $1.2 billion annual revenue provide fundamental support for Hayes’ ambitious long-term targets.

Native Markets Triumph Fuels Stablecoin Integration Plans

Native Markets emerged victorious in Hyperliquid’s USDH stablecoin governance vote after weeks of intense competition.

The decision followed validator commitments, and the prediction market indicated that it heavily favored the team over established competitors.

Ethena withdrew from the race on Thursday, citing community concerns about non-native infrastructure requirements. The exit eliminated a major contender that initially appeared well-positioned for the partnership.

Paxos remained in contention despite revising its proposal midweek. The updated Version 2, which is no longer relevant, included deep PayPal and Venmo integration, zero-cost on- and off-ramps, and a $20 million incentive package.

Paxos also committed all USDH revenue to Hyperliquid growth until it reached a $1 billion TVL.

Additionally, the community has noted that Native Markets won due to its tight integration with Hyperliquid’s ecosystem.

Reserves in cash and U.S. Treasuries will be managed by BlackRock off-chain, while tokenized assets utilize Superstate and Stripe’s Bridge infrastructure.

The team pledged to split all reserve yield between Hyperliquid’s Assistance Fund and broader ecosystem development.

Backing from Uniswap Labs, Paradigm, and Polychain veterans further strengthened credibility among validators.

Elliott Wave Completion Indicates Major Retracement Risk

HYPE’s chart structure suggests completion of a major Elliott Wave 1 cycle around the current $54 levels.

The ending diagonal pattern exhibits corrective characteristics across each subwave, indicating potential exhaustion of the current bullish impulse.

Technical confluence points toward a significant retracement targeting the $25 region.

This level represents multiple support factors, including untapped volume nodes, the macro 0.382 Fibonacci retracement, and speed fan golden pocket alignment.

The ascending channel containing recent price action approaches the upper boundary resistance.

HYPE’s positioning near $53.42 suggests potential topping action despite maintaining bullish momentum characteristics throughout the advance.

Fair Value Gap identification provides substantial buying interest zones during any corrective moves.

These market inefficiencies typically act as price magnets during periods of volatility, where rapid movements leave gaps that require fills.

Alternative wave count scenarios involving nested 1-2 structures appear less probable given current market conditions.

However, decisive breaks above $61 could shift bias toward continued bullish interpretation rather than correction expectations.

FOMC Volatility Creates Strategic Entry Opportunities

Short-term analysis focuses on the Federal Reserve’s September 16-17 FOMC meeting, anticipating rate cuts that could catalyze broader market volatility.

Expectations center around 25 basis point cuts or potentially more aggressive monetary policy action.

Immediate resistance clusters near the 0.618 Fibonacci level at $56.22, with stronger resistance in the $57.50 zone.

These levels represent logical profit-taking areas for short-term traders and potential reversal points for broader corrections.

The support structure identifies key levels at $52.74, with deeper support around $49.88.

The alignment with $50 bid levels creates high-probability setups for both continuation and retracement scenarios based on Fibonacci retracement positioning.

Hayes’s $5,000 projection assumes an explosive expansion of the stablecoin market beyond $10 trillion, driving speculative trading demand.

Hyperliquid’s 60% perpetual futures market share and $1.2 billion annual revenue support long-term bullish scenarios despite near-term technical headwinds.

Is BTC Hyper the Next 100x Bitcoin Layer-2 Everyone’s Building?

While HYPE faces potential correction before reaching Hayes’s $5,000 target, this Bitcoin Layer-2 solution is gaining strong development momentum.

Smart investors know that finding scalability projects early can lead to massive returns during infrastructure upgrades.

BTC Hyper is getting attention because it makes Bitcoin faster and programmable using Solana technology.

The platform turns Bitcoin into a DeFi asset with smart contracts and instant transactions.

The presale has raised over $13 million, with the mainnet launch approaching. Early investors can earn over 150% staking rewards while the network prepares for full deployment.

Worth noting that the best Layer-2 projects get adopted quickly once developers start building applications.

BTC Hyper launches soon with audited smart contracts and cross-chain features. This means you should join now if you want presale access.

You can buy BTC Hyper tokens on the ongoing presale website using BTC, ETH, USDT, or credit cards.

Visit the Official Website Here

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Strategy’s stock and treasury moves have grabbed fresh attention after the company’s executive chairman compared the firm’s returns to those of the so-called Magnificent 7 tech giants. Short and blunt: Strategy has leaned hard into Bitcoin, and recent numbers make a striking case.

Strategy’s Bitcoin Haul And Returns

According to posts by Michael Saylor, Strategy now holds about 638,460 BTC following a purchase of 1,955 BTC at an average price near 111,196. The company has spent roughly $47 billion, fees included, to build that stack at an average buy price of $73,880.

Based on reports, the current value of those holdings is about $71 billion. Those figures sit at the center of Saylor’s argument that his firm’s balance sheet strategy has paid off in ways typical tech plays have not.

Open Interest And Market Cap Comparison

Saylor also shared a chart that matched open interest against market capitalization. Strategy topped that metric at 100%, while Tesla registered 26%. The rest of the Magnificent 7 — Nvidia, Meta, Alphabet, Apple, Amazon, and Microsoft — came in well below Strategy’s reading.

According to his post, this comparison underpins the claim that Strategy’s market dynamics tied to Bitcoin have outpaced many heavyweight tech names.

What’s your Strategy to beat the Magnificent 7? pic.twitter.com/wywaAij3Rs

— Michael Saylor (@saylor) September 13, 2025

Magnificent 7 Face Headwinds

Based on reports, each of those big tech firms is dealing with different pressures. Apple and Microsoft face tougher regulatory checks.

Amazon is seeing slower consumer demand. Tesla must contend with rising competition in electric vehicles. Nvidia remains a strong performer because of AI chip demand, but even Nvidia’s run this year has not matched its earlier explosive gains.

Annualized returns presented by Saylor put Strategy at 91%, Nvidia at 72%, Tesla at 32%, Alphabet at 26%, and Meta at 23%. Microsoft, Apple, and Amazon showed significantly lower annualized gains in that comparison.

Other Firms Are Buying Bitcoin Too

Reports have disclosed that about 12 companies upped their Bitcoin holdings last week, led by Strategy’s 1,955 BTC purchase. Gemini added 1,191 BTC and Bitdeer took on 333.5 BTC.

Companies from Japan’s Metaplanet to China’s Cango and the US firm Volcon also added coins. According to BitcoinTreasuries.NET, the 100 largest public holders now control 1,009,202 BTC, which is valued at more than $117 billion today.

Bitcoin Could Be The Answer

“What’s your Strategy to beat the Magnificent 7?” Saylor asked on X, hinting that Bitcoin—and his company’s bold treasury bet—may offer the answer.

Whether investors see it as a challenge or a warning depends on how they weigh Bitcoin exposure against traditional tech growth.

Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView

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08 September Bitfinex alpha | BTC will integrate ahead of potential Q4 strength as bond markets are distorted

Bitcoin is stable between $108,000 and $112,000, with buyers defending key support zones and filling the air gap left up until July’s Rapid Rally. Deeper corrections are still possible, but the result is time-based integration, especially when it serves as a cyclical lower point than the historically strong Q4. The profitability of short-term holders has been normalized, leaving profits from 42% to 58% of this cohort, but ETF inflows have been slowed sharply in both BTC and ETH. The demand for this cooling facility sees convictions of stronger spots in BTC compared to the combination of directional flow and arbitrage activity that characterizes ETH, but highlights the market’s dependence on fresh catalysts.

Seasonality adds weight to the current integrated narrative. August fell 6.5% and closed in line with a historically weak profile, but September was traditionally the softest month with an average return of 3.3%. That said, the “September Red” effect has recently faded, with the fourth quarter seasonality historically strong, with October and November earning a large average profit.

If the Fed sees interest rate cuts in September, actual yields and low dollars can amplify the seasonal benefits of BTC and set up a phase of updated momentum. Until then, integration remains a basic case due to ETF flows, macro policy shifts, and placement of derivatives that act as key signals to monitor.

The US economy is putting pressure on weaker labor data, bond market tensions, and political conspiracies around the Fed converge. The August Employment Report on Friday, September 5th revealed a payroll growth of just 22,000, bringing the unemployment rate to 4.3% in nearly four years. Softness will strengthen expectations for Fed rate reductions at its September 16th-17th meeting, but sticky inflation complicates the decision. The bond market reflects tension. Short-term yields have fallen to expectations of interest rate cuts, but remained close to 5% in 30 years, indicating investors’ concerns and financial reliability over the deficit. This cut has skyrocketed the curve, increasing long-term borrowing costs and burning flights to gold. President Trump rejects federal government governor Lisa Cook, exacerbating the challenge by threatening new EU tariffs, encouraging investors to weigh not only economic fundamentals but also increasing uncertainty about the Fed’s independence and the direction of US policy.

In the meantime, the global crypto landscape is changing as regulators and markets move towards a more clear framework. In the United States, the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trade Commission issued a rare joint pledge to more closely coordinate the monitoring of digital assets on Friday, September 5th, covering spot crypto products, permanent contracts, portfolio margins, and clearer rules of definitions.

The September 29th joint roundtable has moved this agenda forward, further strengthening it by the 2025 Responsible Financial Innovation Act. The bill also introduces measures to protect and clarify Defi developer status, decentralized physical infrastructure networks, airdrops, and staking rewards. He also directs research into tokenized real-world assets. Together, these moves show Congresses and regulators working together to strengthen the US competitiveness in the digital market. Institutional trust in Solana is also increasing. Last weekend, Sol Strategies announced it had secured approval for its uplist to Nasdaq under ticker Stke, a company milestone focused on Solana, which surpasses its CAD $1 billion mandated assets and owns a treasury of nearly 400,000 Sols. Meanwhile, the South Korean Financial Services Commission issued swept lending rules on September 5, 2025, emphasizing aggressive push to curb interest rates, ban radical loans, limit eligible tokens to maximum assets, protect investors and stabilize the domestic market.

]]> https://earlybirdsinvest.com/bitfinex-alpha-btc-will-integrate-ahead-of-potential-q4-strength-as-bond-markets-are-distorted/feed/ 0 57702 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/cftcs-kristin-johnson-sounds-alarm-on-loopholes-in-prediction-markets/ https://earlybirdsinvest.com/cftcs-kristin-johnson-sounds-alarm-on-loopholes-in-prediction-markets/#respond Fri, 05 Sep 2025 16:11:51 +0000 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/cftcs-kristin-johnson-sounds-alarm-on-loopholes-in-prediction-markets/

Kristin N. Johnson, who is stepping down from her role as a commissioner at the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), used her final public appearance to raise concerns about the risks retail users face when participating in prediction markets.

During a speech at the Brookings Institution on September 3, Johnson pointed out that some companies are offering contracts linked to real-world events, such as elections or sports games, with added leverage, and are targeting people who may not fully understand the risks.

She warned, “As of today, we have too few guardrails and too little visibility into the prediction market landscape”.

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A key issue for Johnson was the CFTC’s lack of action on event-based contracts. She said the agency still has not implemented a rule to explain how such contracts should be handled, which has allowed them to grow without proper supervision.

She also said firms sometimes apply for licenses under the impression that they will stick to traditional products. However, after they are approved, they offer prediction contracts instead. In some cases, companies even sell or rent out these licenses to others.

Johnson stressed that newer firms, especially those in the crypto and prediction markets, often lack strong systems in place to manage risk or comply with regulations.

Rather than holding back innovation, she said regulators should focus on building clear expectations early on. She noted:

If we fail to rightly prioritize consumer protection or market stability on the road to capturing the benefits of innovation or growth, the results can be devastating.

On August 28, the CFTC announced new rules that may permit international crypto exchanges to legally serve US customers. What do these rules cover? Read the full story.

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U.S. market regulators took a coordinated step to encourage the growth of crypto markets, issuing a joint staff statement on Sept. 2 that affirmed registered exchanges are not barred from offering certain spot crypto asset products.

The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) said the statement reflects their staff divisions’ shared view that regulated platforms can facilitate spot commodity trades.

The agencies framed the move as part of a broader push to expand market choice and bring digital asset innovation back onshore.

Coordinated regulatory effort

SEC Chairman Paul Atkins called the joint statement a milestone for the industry, highlighting the agency’s commitment to fostering competition among trading venues.

CFTC Acting Chairman Caroline D. Pham positioned the announcement as a reversal from previous policy uncertainty, linking it to President Donald Trump’s push to make the US “the crypto capital of the world.”

The effort stems from ongoing initiatives: the SEC’s “Project Crypto” and the CFTC’s “Crypto Sprint.” Both programs aim to modernize regulatory frameworks, building on recommendations from the President’s Working Group on Digital Asset Markets.

A clear pathway

The agencies’ trading and market oversight divisions said they would continue engaging with industry stakeholders to address concerns and assess potential products.

Registered exchanges are encouraged to approach staff at either regulator for guidance on compliance. The statement comes as the CFTC gears up to restore US access for offshore exchanges after issuing new guidance last month.

The joint statement indicates that the SEC and CFTC intend to maintain open channels for dialogue and anticipate further actions to support the growth and development of U.S. digital asset markets.

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Bitcoin (BTC) has bounced from early Asian-session lows near $108,760 to over $110,000, but the prospects of sustained recovery appear bleak as on-chain activity points to weak network adoption.

“The price momentum is weakening with the RSI close to the oversold zone and a bearish MACD,” said Timothy Misir, head of research, BRN. “The Spot CVD at –$199 million shows that sellers are in control with spot volume signaling a lack of demand bid. Conversely, Daily Active Addresses fell to 692K (below the low band), signaling weaker network participation.”

The broader market remains under pressure with the CoinDesk 20 and CoinDesk 80 indices down 2% and 1.7% on a 24-hour basis.

Derivatives Positioning

• Leveraged crypto bulls have been burned, with futures bets worth $940 million liquidated in the past 24 hours. More than $800 million were long positions betting on price gains. Ether alone accounted for $320 million in liquidations.
• Still, overall open interest (OI) in BTC remains elevated near lifetime highs above 740K BTC. In ether’s case, the OI has pulled back to 14 million ETH from 14.60 million ETH.
• OI in SOL, XRP, DOGE, ADA, and LINK also dropped in the past 24 hours, indicating net capital outflows.
• Despite the price volatility, funding rates for most major tokens, excluding SHIB, ADA and SOL, remains positive to suggest dominance of bullish long positions.
• OI in the CME-listed standard BTC futures has fallen back to 137.3K from 145.2K, reversing the minor bounce from early this month. It shows that institutional interest in trading these regulated derivatives remains low. OI in options, however, has continued to increase, reaching its highest since late May,
• CME’s ether futures OI remains elevated at 2.05 million ETH, just shy of the record 2.15 million ETH on Aug. 22. Meanwhile, OI in ether options is now at its highest since September last year.
• On Deribit, the impending multibillion-dollar expiry on Friday shows a bias towards BTC puts, indicative of concerns prices are set to drop further. The impending ether expiry paints a more balanced picture.
• Flows on the OTC desk at Paradigm have been mixed, featuring strategies such as outright put buying and put spreads in BTC, as well as calls and risk reversals in ETH.

Token Talk

• Blue-chip NFT collections faced steep weekly losses as ether (ETH) pulled back from record highs, wiping more than 10% off the value of most top projects.
• Pudgy Penguins, the leading collection by trading volume, dropped 17% to a 10.32 ETH floor, showing that even the sector’s strongest liquidity magnet couldn’t escape the downturn.
• Bored Ape Yacht Club (BAYC) lost 14.7% to 9.59 ETH, while Doodles recorded one of the sharpest corrections, falling 18.9% to 0.73 ETH.
• Secondary projects also slumped: Moonbirds fell 10.5%, and Lil Pudgys shed 14.6%, reflecting how price pressure cascaded across both flagship and derivative collections.
• CryptoPunks proved most resilient, losing just 1.35% over the week, underscoring its status as the market’s defensive benchmark when risk appetite collapses.
• Despite lower floors, trading activity stayed high. Pudgy Penguins saw 2,112 ETH ($9.36 million) in weekly volume, followed by Moonbirds (1,979 ETH), CryptoPunks (1,879 ETH), and BAYC (809 ETH).
• Overall NFT market capitalization shrank nearly 5% to $7.7 billion, down from a $9.3 billion peak on Aug. 13. The $1.6 billion drawdown highlights how quickly capital flees when ETH slumps.
• The sharp contrast between resilient CryptoPunks and sliding newer collections strengthens its appeal as a collateral asset. Its liquidity holds up even as broader NFT floors collapse.
• For investors, the sell-off signals that NFT blue chips remain high-beta ETH proxies, with only legacy projects like CryptoPunks showing the defensive value that makes them the safer long-term institutional bet.

Bitcoin (BTC) consolidates near current levels as capital inflows extend along the risk curve toward Ethereum and broader altcoins, according to Bitfinex Alpha’s Aug. 25 report.

The report noted that the shift represents a measured rotation of institutional liquidity following Bitcoin’s all-time high formation.

Bitcoin declined 4.5% from the weekly open on Aug. 18 until Aug. 22, sliding to local range lows as investors de-risked ahead of the Federal Reserve’s Jackson Hole symposium.

The asset reached $111,990 amid renewed weakness in US spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) flows, with Bitcoin ETFs recording $1.18 billion in net outflows over the week. As of press time, BTC lost the $110,000 threshold and is priced at $109,795.71.

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s dovish remarks at Jackson Hole triggered a sharp rebound in risk assets, sparking a broad-based short squeeze across crypto.

Ethereum led the recovery, surging to a new all-time high of $4,958.70 on Aug. 24 and demonstrating its role as a liquidity driver for institutional markets.

Spot ETH ETFs registered $197 million in outflows on Aug. 18 alone, marking the third-largest daily exit on record. However, Ethereum treasury companies absorbed substantial selling pressure, with preliminary estimates suggesting meaningful institutional support.

Corporate treasuries, including SharpLink Gaming, Bitmine Immersion Technologies, and BTCS, accelerated accumulation, with on-chain treasury balances exceeding $10 billion. The report noted that the rotation reflects softer capital inflows into Bitcoin following its Aug. 14 all-time high of $123,640.

Bitcoin’s realized cap expanded at 6% per month during the current move, compared to 13% monthly growth during late-2024 breakouts above $100,000, indicating more cautious investor appetite.

Macro signals remain supportive

Global liquidity conditions remain supportive, with the combined M2 money supply from major central banks approaching $100 trillion. The structural upward trend in global liquidity reinforces the long-term bullish case for digital assets, though capital allocation has become more selective.

Solana climbed above $200 to reach $212.60 as the broader digital asset class pushed higher alongside equities, reflecting tightening correlations between crypto and traditional risk assets. Meanwhile, network development continues to advance, showcased by DBS Bank’s recent tokenized note issuance on Ethereum.

In this backdrop, Bitfinex expects Bitcoin to remain range-bound while Ethereum attracts heightened institutional demand, mirroring Bitcoin’s dynamic from early 2024.

The report anticipated more significant capital rotation into higher-risk altcoins later in the cycle, with broader market re-rating dependent on renewed Bitcoin ETF inflows and new altcoin investment vehicles.

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